Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 30 Aug 2010 07:16 PM PDT Miami is bankrupt. Unfortunately the city refuses to admit it. In an enormously foolhardy attempt to make ends meet, in spite of the fact that Miami home prices have been hammered and 1-in-8 are unemployed, the County keeps pouring on the painful tax and fee increases. As you recoil from your tax warning notice today, ponder this: those multiple tax hikes aren't the only charges set to rise. Besides Miami-Dade County's plan to raise every taxpayer's rates 12.2% for operations and an incredible 56% for capital spending on undisclosed projects, it also plans to raise retail water and wastewater rates 5%.Miami Breaks Employee Contracts Inquiring minds are reading Broke City Breaking Employee Contracts The city of Miami is so broke it's forcing employees to take pay cuts, even though they're under contract. Mayor Tomas Regalado said he's never seen a financial mess like this before, and his options are grim.Mish Comment: If you are looking for one of the most disingenuous comments in history there you have it. The only reason it is not a blatant lie is the ending phrase "to the max". Regalado is clearly incompetent and needs to be removed. The city is operating under a state of "fiscal urgency," declared earlier this summer. The budget deficit for next fiscal year is about $110 million. The proposed cuts in salary, pension contributions and health insurance costs amounts to about $86 million in savings for the city.Mish Comment: Hello Charlie. Good luck in finding jobs with excessive benefits in this market. Hell, you don't need luck you need a miracle. Good riddance, the sooner you leave the better Miami will be. Every position vacated will be a gain to the city. Miami's police officers, firefighters and other union workers are all expected to choke down cuts. One police union official said the Fraternal Order of Police will sue the city if the cuts are imposedMish Comment: It is the right of the FOP to file a lawsuit. I hope they do. The correct response for the city would be to immediately declare bankruptcy so the overpaid union clowns can see just what benefits they get in bankruptcy court, ideally nothing. Hell, the correct response is for Miami to declare bankruptcy now, whether the FOP is stupid and arrogant enough to sue or not. Miami is bankrupt, and the sooner the mayor and city council admit it the better. Budget Hearing 5 p.m. September 13 and 23 If you live in Miami and you do not show up at the hearing you are part of the problem. You better show up because union will, en masse, and they will pack the halls demanding still more tax increases so they can go on receiving huge wages and even bigger pension benefits. In the meantime, please flood the mayor's office and all of the commissioners with phone calls, emails, and faxes. Mayor Tomas P. Regalado E-mail: tregalado@miamigov.com Email Mayor Tomas P. Regalado 305-250-5300 VOICE 305-854-4001 FAX Commissioner Wifredo (Willy) Gort District 1 Email: wgort@miamigov.com Email Commissioner Wifredo (Willy) Gort 305-250-5430 VOICE 305-250-5456 FAX Commissioner Marc Sarnoff (Chairman) District 2 E-mail: msarnoff@miamigov.com Email Commissioner Marc Sarnoff 305-250-5333 VOICE 305-579-3334 FAX Commissioner Frank Carollo (Vice Chairman) District 3 E-mail: fcarollo@miamigov.com Email Commissioner Frank Carollo 305-250-5380 VOICE 305-250-5386 FAX Commissioner Francis Suarez District 4 E-mail: fsuarez@miamigov.com Email Commissioner Francis Suarez 305-250-5420 VOICE 305-856-5230 FAX Commissioner Richard P. Dunn District 5 E-mail: rpdunn@miamigov.com Email Commissioner Richard P. Dunn 305-250-5390 VOICE 305-250-5399 FAX Please flood the Mayor and all the commissioners with emails. Have your friends do the same (unless of course you want your taxes to rise for the sole benefit of unions and city employees). If you are not in a public union or a city employee, please say so. Include your name and address and let them know you will not vote for anyone who raises taxes. Those email links above contain a sample heading line. Please modify it so they do not all look alike. In the body, let the mayor and commissioners know that Miami is bankrupt and politicians giving into union extortion is the reason. As I said, union thugs will show up en masse demanding more taxes, more benefits, and higher wages. Let the mayor and commissioners know that you support bankruptcy to avoid union ripoffs. Finally, if you live in Miami, please have your friends do the same. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 30 Aug 2010 09:46 AM PDT Reader "Henry" has a question on the loan loss provision chart I posted in Former Fed Vice Chairman vs. Mish: Is the Fed Out of Ammo? Henry writes ... Hello Mish,From my previous post ... Assets at Banks whose ALLL Exceeds their Nonperforming LoansTo further clarify, the chart depicts the ratio of loan loss provisions to nonperforming loans across the entire banking system (all banks). There are 33 ALLL charts by bank size and region for inquiring minds to consider. The above chart is the aggregate. The implication what the chart suggests is that banks believe nonperforming loans are NOT a problem (or alternatively they are simply ignoring expected losses to goose earnings). The implication what I suggest is banks earnings have been overstated. Why? Because provisions for loan losses are a hit to earnings. I believe losses are coming for which there are no provisions. The chart depicts a form of "extend and pretend" and overvaluation of assets on bank balance sheets. The Fed and the accounting board ignore this happening (encourage is probably a better word), hoping the problem will get better. With more foreclosures and bankruptcies on the horizon, I suggest it won't. Magnitude of the Problem The above analysis is only in percentage terms. Let's see if we can figure out in dollar terms how big the problem is. A few more charts that will help do just that. Nonperforming Total Loan Percentage The above chart shows that 5.5% of loans are non-performing. Total Loans and Leases The above chart shows there are $7 trillion in total loans and leases. Of that 5.5% is nonperforming. Thus there are $385 billion of "admitted" nonperforming loans. At the start of the recession, the first chart shows that banks had made a loan loss allowance for about 90% of non-performing loans. Now the figure is under 20%. We are still not there yet, and this is where it gets fuzzy. Not all losses will be 100%, Some might be 10% others 80%. I cannot quantify the losses, I can just state there is a huge problem with insufficient loan loss provisions. Charts Understate the Problem The above charts understate the problem because there are hundreds of billions of dollars in nonperforming bank assets held off bank balance sheets. We can add still more to the problem because of absurd mark-to-market valuations and the Fed and FDIC playing games with what constitutes a "nonperforming loan". Banks Oppose Rule Changes Inquiring minds note Wells Fargo "Strongly" Opposes FASB's Rules on Loan Values Wells Fargo & Co., the largest home lender in the U.S., said it disagrees with an accounting board's plan that would require banks to report the fair value of loans on their books.All Major Banks Oppose Honest Reporting Virtually all the banks are against honest reporting. Wells Fargo is leading the pack because of all the nonperforming Pay Option ARM and problem housing assets on its books. The louder a bank screams, the more unprepared it is to deal with nonperforming loans and mark-to-market valuations of garbage held on its balance sheet. Banks Recruit Investors To Kill Fair Value Proposals Banks are so opposed to common sense rules that they have even recruited investors in a Campaign to Kill FASB Fair-Value Proposal Banking lobbyists have launched an e- mail and Web campaign to mobilize investors against a proposed expansion of fair-value accounting rules that may force banks such as Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. to write down billions of dollars of assets.Thus, the above charts and discussion only forms a framework of discussion for what losses banks are hiding on their balance sheets and off their balance sheets. The starting point for discussion is not pretty, and beneath the surface the actual magnitude of the problem is worse than it looks. Undercapitalized Banks Banks are undercapitalized across the board because of these issues. Unfortunately, as noted above, it is purposely hard to accurately untangle this mess because of the lobbying effort by banks and the Fed's willingness to encourage extend-and-pretend games. Those of you who keep asking "Why are banks reluctant to lend?" now have another solid reason. Moreover, Obama administration policy errors compound the above problems. The result turns up in small business hiring trends. Small Business Trends
Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade The icing on the cake is that because of massive overcapacity and tapped out, deleveraging consumers, and misguided policies by the Obama administration, businesses do not want to borrow, expand, or hire. The combined result is an amazingly toxic brew that will keep unemployment elevated for as long time. Flashback August 18, 2009: Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade Consumer demand is dead. That demand is not coming back anytime soon, and there is no driver for jobs if it doesn't.People manage to get hyperinflation out of this. The idea is laughable. Addendum Off Balance Sheet Accounting at Citigroup and Wells Fargo Inquiring minds may be interested in Wells Fargo's Balance Sheet: Scaring the Horses regarding off balance sheet exposure at Wells Fargo and Citigroup. The article is from February 2009, but the off balance sheet problem still exists. Here is another Flashback, this one from April 16, 2009: Wells Fargo's Profit Looks Too Good to Be True: Jonathan Weil FDIC Allows Banks To Hide Insufficient Capital Dateline December 15, 2009: FDIC Approves Giving Banks Reprieve From Capital Requirements The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. gave banks including Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. a reprieve of at least six months from raising capital to support billions of dollars of securities the firms will be adding to their balance sheets.Banks in general are sitting on assets, not marked-to-market, both on and off their balance sheets, for which they have made no loan loss provisions, while credit risk for new loans is exceptionally high. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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