Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Germany's Finance Minister Lectures Obama On Debt, Defends Euro, says German Referendum Needed Soon
- Greek Finance Minister Resigns Before Being Sworn In; Cyprus Seeks Bailout From Euro Zone Partners
- EU Takes Great Britain to Court over Garlic; Nannyzone Nonsense; Time for UK to Kiss EU Goodbye
- Is There a Limit on Central Bank's Ability to Inflate?
Germany's Finance Minister Lectures Obama On Debt, Defends Euro, says German Referendum Needed Soon Posted: 25 Jun 2012 02:06 PM PDT President Barack Obama should focus on cutting America's own budget deficit before advising Europe on how to tackle its debt problems says German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble in the Spiegel article in Germany Rejects Obama's Criticism in Euro Crisis German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble rebuffed recent criticism of Germany's handling of the euro crisis from Barack Obama, telling the US president to get his own house in order before giving advice.Wolfgang Schäuble Defends Euro and Jean-Claude Juncker In an interview with Spiegel published on Monday, Schäuble said he could imagine that Germany will soon have to hold a referendum on a new constitution enshrining greater EU sovereignty. Please consider these snips from Der Spiegel interview 'We Certainly Don't Want to Divide Europe' SPIEGEL: Minister Schäuble, the European Union is mired the worst crisis in its history with the euro threatening to break apart. What is at stake?Hypocrisy The interview reviews a set of arrogant statements, foolish actions, lies, and hypocrisy. Let's start with the hypocrisy. In response to a comment on "powers of destruction", Schäuble responded "Now you're exaggerating.". Yet, in response to the opening question "What's at stake?" he responded "Our prosperity. .... Otherwise we would fall far behind, and that would lead to a substantial loss of prosperity and societal security." A "substantial loss of prosperity and societal security" sounds pretty destructive to me. Arrogance and Foolish Actions Defending the introduction of the Euro while admitting these problems were known in advance is arrogant foolishness. Anyone care to ask how Spain, Greece, or Ireland feels about this position? Calling for a strengthening of European parliament complete with all their nannyzone ideas, tariffs, and regulations is beyond foolish. For a prime example, please see EU Takes Great Britain to Court over Garlic; Nannyzone Nonsense; Time for UK to Kiss EU Goodbye Yet, without a fiscal and political union, the euro cannot function at all. Indeed it certainly hasn't. Of course Germany expects to be in control of the parliament, but that may not happen, especially if France, Spain, and Italy all agree to do some foolish thing (exactly as they propose right now I might point out!). The very first thing to go in a political union would be austerity if those countries had their way. Of course, the proposal would contain "strict" budget limitations. Think those would matter when politicians would have the chance to vote on them? Why should German citizens (or any citizens for that matter) subject themselves to such nonsense? Outright Lies or Disingenuous Bullsheet? Schäuble claimed "In the most recent election in Greece, more citizens voted for parties that support the course that was agreed to with Europe than in the first election." That is a gross distortion of reality at best. There is near unanimous sentiment in Greece against more austerity. Pasok, the only pro-austerity party received a mere 12% of the vote. Political and Cultural Differences Are Immense Political and cultural difference make agreements on a new treaty impossible. If anything, odds of hammering these things out in a crisis is all the more difficult, as repeated disagreements about Greece (a very minor player) have shown. A timing sequence issue also suggests It's Just Impossible.
Schäuble believes a German referendum will happen soon. How can that be given there is no agreement on eurobonds, the order and timing of events, or anything else substantial? Recall that French president Francois Hollande even wants to rework the last agreement! Yet, until a treaty is hammered out, no referendum is possible. Even if by some miracle a treaty is hammered out, how long will the ratification process take? Would German citizens vote for it? Finally, will the bond markets wait that long? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Greek Finance Minister Resigns Before Being Sworn In; Cyprus Seeks Bailout From Euro Zone Partners Posted: 25 Jun 2012 11:01 AM PDT One might think the the newly elected Prime Minister of Greece would have enough common sense to not appoint a finance minister with a history of medical problems. One might also think a person with known medical problems would turn down the position if offered because of the obvious stress. However, one would be wrong on both counts. Reuters reports Greek finance minister resigns, crisis deepens Greece's new finance minister resigned because of ill health on Monday, throwing the government's drive to soften the terms of an international bailout into confusion days before a European summit.Cyprus Seeks Bailout In other news, the New York Times reports Cyprus Seeks Bailout From Euro Zone Partners The euro zone's sovereign debt crisis took a turn for the worse Monday as Cyprus said it would seek aid from the euro zone's bailout funds.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
EU Takes Great Britain to Court over Garlic; Nannyzone Nonsense; Time for UK to Kiss EU Goodbye Posted: 25 Jun 2012 08:19 AM PDT If you are looking for solid reasons why the UK should kiss the EU goodbye, then I can provide one: Brussels acts over garlic tax. The European Commission is taking Britain to court in a battle over an unpaid bill of millions of pounds in duty on imports of garlic.Nannyzone Nonsense For starters, there should be no tariffs on garlic at all, fresh, frozen, freeze dried, or otherwise. This is not just about garlic. This is about agricultural tariffs in general. Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog discusses free trade including the following absurdity regarding sale of cabbage. Mind, we do believe that free trade, free movement of capital and open borders are essential and important achievements. But here is a little comparison that shows you quickly and easily what isn't (hat tip to one of our readers at Seeking Alpha):Tenebrarum sarcastically asks "How on earth did we ever buy and sell cabbage before there were such edicts from the bureaucracy in Brussels?" Who Benefits From This Nonsense? Such tariffs are primarily for the benefit of French farmers who could not otherwise compete in the global marketplace. Not only do consumers have to pay higher prices for no reason, but 25% of such taxes go straight to the nannycrats' pockets, disguised as "collection costs". The nannycrats wanted prime minister David Cameron to sign a nanny-agreement last December, but the only reason he didn't was the possibility the EU would implement a financial transaction tax. For details, please see my December 10, 2011 post Britain Seethes, Germany Sulks, France Gloats; UK "Big Loser" Falls into "French Trap"?; Who is the "Real Loser"? Bazooka Math The idea that the UK fell into a French trap is totally absurd. Cameron would have been willing to sign that fool agreement had not France insisted on a financial transaction tax. Then had he signed, the UK would have been subject to the tax by popular vote later. Thus it was France who made the foolish move if they wanted Cameron to sign. Nonetheless, Cameron did make a huge mistake and he also painted himself into a corner by stating it would be "disastrous" for the UK to leave the EU. Why? Disastrous for who? The UK would get to shed arcane EU regulations on damn near everything, but especially agricultural tariffs that cost UK citizens plenty. The UK can stop sending money to the EU that goes into creating policies that further cost UK citizens money. Whatever downside there is to leaving the EU, would be more than made up for by shedding EU bureaucracy and idiotic rules entirely. Time for UK to Kiss EU Goodbye There is no reason for the UK to be in the EU. Agricultural tariffs including garlic taxes are proof enough. Financial transaction taxes, supported by France and Germany, are icing on the cake. The UK wisely avoided a eurozone entry. It would benefit from telling the EU to go to hell over agricultural tariffs and financial transaction taxes as well. If the EU is stupid enough to sponsor agricultural tariffs for the primary benefit of French farmers at the expense of everyone else, then let them. There is no reason UK citizens should have to suffer as well. Put it to a vote David Cameron. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Is There a Limit on Central Bank's Ability to Inflate? Posted: 25 Jun 2012 12:24 AM PDT On Friday, ECB President Mario Draghi announced ECB to Accept BBB- Rated Debt (One Step Above Junk) as Collateral. Reaction from the German central bank was immediate: Bundesbank Swipes at Draghi as European Fault Lines Deepen "We're critical of this," Bundesbank spokesman Michael Best said yesterday. In terms of collateral, "we won't accept what we don't have to accept," he said.Target2 and ELA Explained If you do not know what target2 balances are, or if you want to understand how much Germany is really at risk of (most have it wrong), then please see Discussion of Target2 and the ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) program; Reader From Europe Asks "Can You Please Explain Target2?" Do Central Banks Face "Power Limits"? In light of loosening collateral standards by the ECB to one step above junk, some might be wondering about limits on central bank actions. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) says Central Banks Face Power Limit as Debt Persists "Central banks are being cornered into prolonging monetary stimulus as governments drag their feet and adjustment is delayed," the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said in its annual report, published today. "Both conventionally and unconventionally accommodative monetary policies are palliatives and have their limits."Politically Impossible to Avoid Breakup Emphasis added to key ideas. I agree with all the points above except the last one. I suggest it is "hard to escape" the conclusion that the eurozone will break up. Efforts to resist that breakup will only make the breakup when it does occur more violent. Reasons To Expect Breakup
Key Breakup Idea Here is the key idea from It's Just Impossible
Central Banks Do Have Limits Except as noted, I agree with the BIS position on limits. I have explained many times. First note that the Fed (central banks in general) cannot give away free money. They can provide liquidity (but not capital). They will stretch what they are willing to do, but even in the case of the ECB accepting near-junk as collateral, it is only with a haircut. For further discussion of liquidity vs. capital including some statements by a Fed governor, please see No Helicopter Drop For Failed Banks Can The Fed Cause Hyperinflation? I put together other key ideas in Hyperinflation Nonsense in Multiple Places. Here are some snips. I do not think the Fed itself can cause hyperinflation and more importantly I am sure they would not if they could. The reason is "Hyperinflation Would End The Game"Attitudes the Key In a credit-based economy such as the US and Europe, attitudes are the key. The Fed can print at will, but it cannot make consumers spend or businesses expand or hire. The Fed is desperately (and foolishly) trying to get consumers to lever up once again, however attitudes of consumers have changed. Boomers need to deleverage heading into retirement and Generations X and Y, are loaded up with student debt, struggling to find jobs. This is a deflationary setup, not an inflationary one. For more on generational attitudes, please see Three Key Reasons Housing Not Coming Back: Demographics, Student Debt, No Jobs Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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