Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Great Divide; Boehner Rams Through Bill that Senate Quickly Rejects; Obama's Idle Threats and Fear Mongering
- Foreclosed 23-Story, 475,789 Sq. Ft. KeyBank Center Auctioned Off for $7.15M; Handing Over the Keys, Cleveland Style
- US GDP on Verge of Contraction in 1st Quarter, Mere 1.3% Annual Rate 2nd Quarter; Summary of Massive Revisions; Second-Half Recovery Nonsense
- New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism; Idiocies of Cap-and-Trade Exposed
Posted: 29 Jul 2011 10:29 PM PDT In a nearly useless face-saving maneuver, House Speaker John Boehner managed to twist enough arms to narrowly pass his bill that was instantly rejected in the Senate. Questions abound. Was there any point to this? If so, what was it? Since everyone knew his plan would be rejected in the Senate, why bother? The only conceivable answer is to save face, but how much face could possibly have been saved when Boehner had to twist the arms of every Republican to narrowly pass his gaseous proposal? As long as his proposal was going to be rejected anyway, Boehner would have been better served to come up with a rock-solid plan that Republicans would have loved to sign. If Boehner wanted to make a statement, that would have done it. Instead, Boehner came out looking like a limp dishrag. Senate Quickly Kills Boehner Debt Bill The New York Times reports Senate Quickly Kills Boehner Debt Bill After a 24-hour delay and concessions to conservatives, the House on Friday narrowly approved a Republican fiscal plan that the Senate quickly rejected in a standoff over the federal debt ceiling that was keeping the government on a path to potential default.Default Hype Notice that the New York Times in the very first paragraph repeated the Obama hype regarding defaults. The odds of default at this stage are roughly zero%. I discussed that at length on Thursday in Not Raising the Debt Ceiling Would be Blessing; Debt Limit Analysis; Interactive Map, You Decide What Not To Pay Contrary to popular belief, the US would not default. Troops would still be paid. Medicare and Medicaid would not stop. The Bipartisan Policy Center has a nice analysis in a PDF on Debt Limit Analysis.Idle Threats and Fear Mongering Caroline Baum repeated my message on Friday in Obama, Geithner May Regret Threats of Default Scare TacticsFear Card vs. Common Sense Notice the common sense approach of Caroline Baum vs. that of Geithner, Obama, and Bernanke. Yes, a default would be a monstrous disaster. However, we are months, not days away from that. Why Republicans do not call the president on his fear-mongering is certainly a mystery. Are Republicans that bamboozled by Presidential BS? Great Divide One of the more interesting political posts of the week is The Great Divide by Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer. We're in the midst of a great four-year national debate on the size and reach of government, the future of the welfare state, indeed, the nature of the social contract between citizen and state. The distinctive visions of the two parties — social-democratic vs. limited-government — have underlain every debate on every issue since Barack Obama's inauguration: the stimulus, the auto bailouts, health-care reform, financial regulation, deficit spending. Everything. The debt ceiling is but the latest focus of this fundamental divide.Refreshing Talk of Keynesian Gamble It is marvelously refreshing to see a mainstream media writer trashing Keynesian nonsense. That paragraph alone makes me want to stand up and salute. However, after careful reconsideration I still come to the conclusion Boehner screwed up badly. Indisputable Facts
Those are the indisputable facts of the matter and I covered them at length in the following set of posts.
No one knows for sure whether Obama can win another election or not. If he does win, Republicans will probably not get another chance at 3-1 spending cuts vs. tax hikes. Indeed, unless Republicans win a filibuster-proof Senate and the Presidency they may not get another chance. Many contend the chance was an illusion, that Democrats were not really offering 3-1 cuts. They are correct. However, nothing was stopping Republicans from making sure the cuts were real. Moreover, and as I have stated many times, Obama said he was willing to make "hard choices". Republicans did not even put Obama to the test. In return for $1 trillion in tax hikes, Republicans could have asked for virtually anything. Deal of the Century I would gladly trade $1 trillion in tax hikes for ...
Would Democrats have gone along? If not, Obama and the Democrats would have been seen as the deal-killers, not Republicans. If the Democrats accepted, it would have been well worth it. Instead, no one knows what will happen in the next election, and Republicans will likely compromise on some meaningless plan that will not do a damn thing to fix the deficit. Unless some miracle happens, the Republicans flat out blew it, and Boehner is one of the reasons. He may not be the next speaker, even if Republicans retain the House. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 29 Jul 2011 01:10 PM PDT Bidders did not exactly come out of the woodwork in Cleveland as the 23 story KeyBank Center auctioned off for $7.15M Bidding has ended on Cleveland's foreclosed 23-story KeyBank Center. The 475,789 square foot building on Superior Avenue sold for $7.15 million.Building Sells for $15.03 a Square Foot Math is simple enough. $7.5 million divided by 475,789 square feet = $15.03 per square foot. This should give you an idea of what property is worth in Cleveland. Handing Over the Keys, Cleveland Style Inquiring minds might be interested in the assessed value for property taxes. Crain's Cleveland Business reports KeyBank Center headed for auction The lender controlling the 23- story office building at 800 Superior Ave. in downtown Cleveland is going the auction route to find a way out of owning KeyBank Center, better known as the former McDonald Investments Center.Prime Cleveland Location This is not a horrible looking building or a poor location either. Courtesy of Akron News please consider this image and commentary. There you have it. Prime building space in Cleveland is worth $15.03 a square foot. The building assessed at $44 million went for $7.15 million, "priced low to attract bidders". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 29 Jul 2011 09:30 AM PDT The stunner of the day is not only an anemic 2nd quarter GDP of 1.3 percent annualized, but of huge revisions all the way back to to 2007. Please consider Economy in U.S. Grows Less Than Forecast Gross domestic product climbed at a 1.3 percent annual rate following a 0.4 percent gain in the prior quarter that was less than earlier estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.8 percent increase. Household purchases, about 70 percent of the economy, rose 0.1 percent.Summary of Revisions
The above summary is from the BEA Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2011 (Advance Estimate) Chart of Revisions Doug Short has a chart of revisions in his post GDP Q2 Advance Estimate: A Stunning 1.3 Percent ![]() click on chart for sharper image Second-Half Rebound Melts Away Economists did not see this coming. They never do. Economists in general cannot see a slowdown coming no matter how obvious the slowdown is. Quite frankly, this slowdown was damn obvious. Moreover, given budget constraints in the US including cutbacks at city and state levels, given Europe will soon be in recession in conjunction with various austerity measures (assuming Europe is not in recession already), given a slowdown in China, and an outright economic bust in Australia, the idea of a huge second-half surge is complete silliness. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism; Idiocies of Cap-and-Trade Exposed Posted: 29 Jul 2011 08:12 AM PDT Forbes Magazine reports New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.Will this stop the global-warming fear-mongers? Of course not. Worse yet, even if global warming was a genuine threat, the cap-and-trade measures proposed as solutions are downright idiotic. The Wall Street Journal blasted Obama's cap-and-trade proposal in March of 2009 in Who Pays for Cap and Trade? Cap and trade is the tax that dare not speak its name, and Democrats are hoping in particular that no one notices who would pay for their climate ambitions. With President Obama depending on vast new carbon revenues in his budget and Congress promising a bill by May, perhaps Americans would like to know the deeply unequal ways that climate costs would be distributed across regions and income groups.Cap-and-trade confers benefit to existing polluters at the expense of new businesses who will have to buy credits from existing ones. It sets up lucrative trading schemes that will benefit Wall Street derivatives traders and those peddling otherwise economically nonviable clean energy schemes. Cap-and-trade also benefits China, the largest, most flagrant producer of greenhouse gasses. China will not go along with cap-and-trade so driving up costs elsewhere only serves to drive business to China! Finally, and as Forbes states, cap-and-trade is a tax on consumers who will have to pay for such nonsense. If global warming is a problem, the free market (not derivative traders, not nonviable clean-energy schemers), will find a solution. Fortunately cap-and-trade died in the US senate. Unfortunately, no amount of research is likely to stop GE and other beneficiaries (as well a misguided fools led by Al Gore) from pushing the idea. Addendum: Some people have attacked the credibility of the Forbes article. I knew in advance they would. They miss my point in writing. My point is about the silliness of cap-and-trade as a solution. The Forbes article gave me a chance to reiterate those points and I took it. I side with the Wall Street Journal adding my own reasons as well. My points are valid whether or not one believes in the merits of the Forbes article as presented. Addendum II: My friend "HB" writes ... I have always said the global warming hysteria was essentially based on a hoax. Yet governments spend nearly $60 billion globally on such dreck every year!Exactly. Money flows to those bound to a set of predetermined answers that dictate 1. global warming exists in a meaningful way and 2. something sensible can be done about it on the slim chance it does exist in a meaningful way. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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