Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Dutch Government Calls Timeout on Euro Bailout Deal
- LPS Mortgage Monitor: Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure, 72% in Foreclosure Not Made Payment for at Least 1 Year
- Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force in Surprise Move; Is Papandreou Preparing for a Military Coup or Afraid of One?
- Greek Referendum Off or On? Who is in Control? Anyone?
- EU Deal Unravels from Many Sides; Italy, France Bond Spreads Hit Record High vs. Germany; Bund Yield Drops Most on Record; All Out Bond Crisis
- Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 205%
- GM Sales Barely Rise, Chrysler's Up 27%; What Does It Mean?
- Regulators Investigate MF Global for Missing Customer Money; MF Global Goes Bankrupt Before Making 1st Interest Payment; Corzine's Achievement Sheet
Dutch Government Calls Timeout on Euro Bailout Deal Posted: 01 Nov 2011 11:04 PM PDT Although there is no formal requirement for the Dutch parliament to approve the EFSF bailout deal, members of the prime minister's coalition are having second thoughts about the deal following the Greek referendum proposal. Amusingly, members of the opposition are pleased with the referendum stating a preference for tossing "the whole rescue package into the trash bin". Please consider Dutch govt wins time on euro bailout deal The Dutch government won time on Tuesday to get parliament's backing for last week's euro zone rescue plan, promising details on the package and facing demands to have a strong budget commissioner and more IMF involvement in the debt crisis.Right now this delay appears to be a mere formality. However, politics can take a U-turn at any time as we have seen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 01 Nov 2011 09:00 PM PDT Inquiring minds are reading the latest LPS Mortgage Monitor, released today. Foreclosure timelines continue to increase across the board - almost 40 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years, and 72 percent have not made a payment in a year or more. New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months, with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure.Here are a few charts from LPS. Click on any chart for a sharper image. Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure ![]() Delinquencies and Foreclosures ![]() 39% of Loans in Foreclosure Not Made Payment in 2 Years, 72% for 1 Year ![]() Take a good look at that chart. There has not been a decrease in the no payment for over 2 years category ever. At the beginning of 2011 it was 28%. It is now 39%. At the beginning of 2010 it was 12%. Foreclosure Starts Outnumber Sales by Factor Over 3:1 ![]() If things are improving, it's not by much. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:05 PM PDT Greek prime minister George Papandreou pulled a second major surprise move in two days. Yesterday he rattled the markets with a bombshell voter referendum proposal on the EU bailout (see EU Deal Unravels from Many Sides; Italy, France Bond Spreads Hit Record High vs. Germany; Bund Yield Drops Most on Record; All Out Bond Crisis). Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force in Surprise Move Today in another surprise move, Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force Is Papandreou Preparing for a Military Coup or Afraid of One? I can only think of two reasons for this latest surprise announcement.
Take your pick. It's one or the other but it could be both. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Greek Referendum Off or On? Who is in Control? Anyone? Posted: 01 Nov 2011 01:45 PM PDT The stock market rallied in a spurt around 12:30 Central when a Dow Jones Newswires reported that a Greek Socialist Party official said the plan to have voters approve the rescue is "basically dead." Then, about an hour before the close came news from a Greek government spokesman that the referendum was back on and the S&P slid back towards the lows of the day. Finally, in a bit late buying the S&P surged 12 points to close down about 35 points, roughly 2.8%. S&P 500 Futures, 3-Minute Chart ![]() The question is: Who is an control? Better yet, is anyone in control? One thing we know is Papandreou's call for a vote of confidence is on. We also know his fragile coalition holds an extremely slim 3 margin majority in Parliament. I believe on these announcements, he will lose that vote of confidence. If so, we do not know who will replace him. If the call for voter referendum is not binding, then it is likely the next Greek parliament or prime minister will cancel it. There are a lot of open questions here in regards to both the vote of confidence and the voter referendum, yet I see them posed nowhere else. Is there a Greek constitutional expert around? Meanwhile Merkel and Sarkozy will meet in Cannes November 3 to discuss the Greek crisis in yet another EU 20-member summit. If the referendum is on, the EU is no longer in control of a Greek default. More specifically, the EU was never in control, it only appeared that way. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 01 Nov 2011 10:35 AM PDT In the wake of Papandreou's Call for Voter Referendum on EU Debt Deal sovereign debt yields plunged in Germany and surged higher in most other European countries, but most notably Italy and France. Bloomberg reports Italian Bonds Slide, Premium to Bunds Reaches Record, Amid Greece Concern Italian bonds led declines among the securities issued by Europe's most indebted nations after a Greek plan to hold a referendum on its international bailout added to concern the region's financial turmoil will deepen.European Sovereign Debt Spread Table 10-Year Bonds
European Sovereign Debt Spread Table 2-Year Bonds
Italy yields are well off the highs of the day after the ECB stepped up Italy bond purchases. Italy 10-Year Government Bonds ![]() Italy 2-Year Government Bonds ![]() For some reason Bloomberg charts do not match intra-day figures but the summary section on the left is accurate. Note the explosion in Italy's 2-year bond yield, at one point up .76. Meanwhile, the German 10-year yield fell 26 basis points and the 2-Year yield fell 13 basis points. Thus at one point today the German 2-year spread vs. Germany widened by a massive 89 basis points. The deal is certainly "unraveling from many sides" with force, so much so that Europe is in the midst of an "all out sovereign bond crisis". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 205% Posted: 01 Nov 2011 09:24 AM PDT I have been wondering when Greek bond yields would top 200%. Today is the day. Greece 1-Year Government Bond Yield ![]() Congratulations to anyone selecting this target date. However, predictions made yesterday in the wake of Papandreou's Call for Voter Referendum on EU Debt Deal do not count. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GM Sales Barely Rise, Chrysler's Up 27%; What Does It Mean? Posted: 01 Nov 2011 09:06 AM PDT Nearly lost in the European carnage this morning, GM Sales Barely Rise, Chrysler's Up 27%. Chrysler Group LLC's October U.S. auto sales rose 27% while General Motors Co. climbed just 1.7% amid a mixed picture for the largest U.S. auto makers.Sales down and dealer inventory up 15% at GM. The key takeaway from last months "good" GM sales report is it was largely based on channel stuffing. "Sales" get reported when cars are shipped to the dealer and cars are stacking up at GM dealers. This does not bode well for jobs, production, or GDP looking ahead, unless consumers put on their shopping hats. I do not believe they will. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 01 Nov 2011 12:31 AM PDT Today I Congratulate Jon Corzine, CEO of MF Global, for an unheard of combination of rare "achievements". Corzine's Achievement Sheet
Corzine in Bed with Union Leaders, Literally Many of the above facts were from Wikipedia. Here is a lengthy snip on influence peddling. In the spring of 1999, when Jon Corzine was running for the United State Senate, he met Carla Katz, the then president of Local 1034 of the Communications Workers Corzine and Katz were soon dating, and they began appearing in public as a couple in early 2002, shortly after Corzine's separation from his wife Joanne. The Corzines divorced the following year. For more than two years Corzine was romantically involved with Katz. She lived with him at his apartment in Hoboken from April 2002 until August 2004.Corzine Perfect Fit for MF Global In spite of that background, (or do I mean because of it), MF Global thought Corzine was a perfect fit. Indeed, those looking for reckless behavior, massive risk taking, and willingness to bet the farm on marriage, in politics, and in life, Corzine represented rare "impossible to pass up" talent. MF Global Bonds Fail to Make First Payment In a rarely achieved feat, MF's Corzine Key Man Bonds Fail to Make First Payments Bond investors lent MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) $650 million three months ago in a bet Jon Corzine would succeed in turning the futures broker into a mini-version of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The firm filed for bankruptcy before making its first interest payment on the debt.MF Global Bankruptcy: The Biggest Losers The Wall Street Journal reports on MF Global Bankruptcy: The Biggest Losers 1) Fidelity funds, 13.9 million shares or 8.44% of common stockVolcker's Campaign Against Proprietary Trading Bloomberg reports MF Exposes Risk Volcker Wants to Curb Jon Corzine's risk appetite helped destroy his firm. It also provided an object lesson for Paul Volcker's campaign against proprietary trading on Wall Street.Regulators Investigate Missing Money The New York Times DealBook reports Regulators Investigating MF Global for Missing Money Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, which is run by Jon S. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor, several people briefed on the matter said on Monday.DealBook stated "the inquiry threatens to tarnish further the reputation of Mr. Corzine". Short of uncovering fraud, is that possible? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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