Central Perk: 21 nov. 2015

sâmbătă, 21 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Oil Patch Problems: Rigs Down 60%, Production Down 3%, $40-$50 Price Doesn't Work

Posted: 21 Nov 2015 05:12 PM PST

With every bounce in the price of oil, US producers used enhanced techniques to get more and more oil out of existing wells. So even as rig counts collapsed, production is barely off the highs, at a price that isn't even profitable.

Oil Flirts with $40 Again

Prices are once again flirting with $40. Crude has not hand a monthly close below $40 since mid-2004. And $40 to $50 is not even profitable, putting producers into a bind.

Oil Patch Problems

The Wall Street Journal explains Low Crude Prices Catch Up With the U.S. Oil Patch.

U.S. companies have stunned global rivals by continuing to produce oil—particularly from shale deposits—ever more cheaply as American crude prices plunged from over $100 a barrel in 2014. But the recent drop toward $40 a barrel and below puts even the most efficient operators in a bind.

"Forty-dollar to fifty-dollar oil prices don't work in this business," Ryan Lance, chief executive of ConocoPhillips, the largest independent U.S. oil producer, said in an interview.

The worst-case scenario most major producers have discussed in the past six weeks with investors involved a price of $50 a barrel. That is beginning to look optimistic as Saudi Arabia continues to produce near-record volumes and major exporters such as Iraq have increased output. Many oil executives, including BP PLC CEO Bob Dudley, expect prices to be "lower for longer." The U.S. Energy Department is forecasting the price of oil will average around $50 a barrel next year.

Breakeven Price

More than 250,000 people world-wide have lost their jobs in the industry over the past year, according to Graves & Co., a Houston consulting firm. Many companies that were hoping to weather low energy prices without new rounds of layoffs and salary cuts may be forced to slash those costs yet again, said Eric Lee, an energy analyst with Citigroup.

"We're really reaching the limit of what people can do," said Allen Gilmer, chief executive of DrillingInfo, an Austin, Texas company that compiles data on tens of thousands of shale wells across North America. "Right now, you are down to the best areas, the best rigs, the best people. Any cuts from now on are bone rather than fat."

Earlier this month, EOG Resources Inc., a Houston-based shale driller, said some of its most prolific wells would yield a rate of return above 40%, even with U.S. oil prices at $50 a barrel.

But break-even prices don't always give the whole picture of how much money a shale company must spend to pump oil and move it to market. They can exclude land costs, which for some companies amount to billions of dollars, and they don't include the cost of using pipelines to transport crude, according to company financial statements and analyst reports.

In nearly all of its investor presentations this year, EOG has said it can turn a profit at prices at or below the prevailing oil price at the time of the presentation. Yet more than $6 billion in capital spending this year has produced nearly $4 billion in net losses over the past year for the company, which is an industry bellwether.

The company, which has said $40 oil is unsustainable, didn't respond to requests for comment.

EOG isn't alone. In the past 12 months, the 24 largest shale companies have reported losses totaling more than $62 billion and many show negative returns.

At $40, oil patch bankruptcies will soar.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Brussels Enters Lockdown, Warns of "Paris-Style" Attack, Airport and Sporting Events Closed

Posted: 21 Nov 2015 09:25 AM PST

Officials in Belgium have "precise information" that Brussels faces a "Paris-Style" Attack. In response Brussels Enters Lockdown.

Brussels faces an imminent threat of a Paris-style Islamic State terrorist attack, authorities warned, as the city shut down its metro system and shopping malls, canceled sporting and cultural events and told people to avoid gathering in large groups.

"We have precise information that outlines the risk of an attack similar to the one that unfolded in Paris," Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel told a press conference Saturday morning in Brussels. "It is a threat based on the theory that it would take place with arms and explosives, maybe even in several places and at the same time."

Authorities canceled sporting events and cultural activities around the Belgian capital. Professional soccer games were postponed, movie theaters, opera houses, libraries and galleries closed and shopping malls and department stores shut their doors. The city's Atomium tourist venue didn't open on Saturday, while night clubs and concert venues said they wouldn't open in the evening.

"We have enough pieces of information to judge that the threat is precise and imminent," said Foreign Minister Didier Reynders, according to Belga newswire. "It's normal that there is a certain feeling of fear after what happened in Paris and Bamako," he said in a reference to al-Qaeda-linked gunmen killing at least 21 people at a luxury hotel in Mali's capital on Friday.

The Brussels metro will remain closed until at least Sunday afternoon, Michel told reporters Saturday morning after a meeting of the national security council. The council will meet again on Sunday to decide whether to extend the closure beyond the weekend.

The terror warning came hours after the United Nations on Friday unanimously endorsed a resolution calling for countries to take "all necessary measures" to combat so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, warning that the group intends further attacks like those that in the French capital.

Imprecise Information

The above information seems more "general" than precise. Is the threat even real?

Yet, it's tough to second-guess the actions taken now simply because we don't know what the authorities know.

But unless those in the plot are captured today (assuming there is a plot), will the airport be any safer on Sunday or Monday?

Now that fears are heightened, one obvious risk is a series of idle threats that will shut down cities, time and time again.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : A reason persuasion is surprisingly difficult

A reason persuasion is surprisingly difficult

Each of us understands that different people are swayed by different sorts of arguments, based on different ways of viewing the world. That seems sort of obvious. A toddler might want an orange juice because it's sweet, not because she's trying to avoid scurvy, which might be the argument that moves an intellectual but vitamin-starved sailor to take action.

So far, so good.

The difficult part is this: Even when people making an argument know this, they don't like making an argument that appeals to the other person's alternative worldview.

Worth a full stop here. Even when people have an argument about a political action they want someone else to adopt, or a product they want them to buy, they hesitate to make that argument with empathy. Instead, they default to talking about why they believe it.

To many people, it feels manipulative or insincere or even morally wrong to momentarily take the other person's point of view when trying to advance an argument that we already believe in.

And that's one reason why so many people claim to not like engaging in marketing. Marketing is the empathetic act of telling a story that works, that's true for the person hearing it, that stands up to scrutiny. But marketing is not about merely sharing what you, the marketer believes. It's about what we, the listener, believe.