Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Nigel Farage: Here It Comes Your 19th Euro Breakdown
- Finland, Netherlands Reject ESM Model; Finland Insists On Collateral for Loans to Spain
- EU Summit Winner Was Merkel
Nigel Farage: Here It Comes Your 19th Euro Breakdown Posted: 03 Jul 2012 09:24 AM PDT The always humorous Nigel Farage blasted European council president Herman Van Rompuy along with José Barroso in European parliament today, mocking the alleged "breakthrough". Link if video does not play: Nigel Farage on Euro Breakdown Select Quotes:
Farage sarcastically commented to Herman Van Rompuy ... "It's lovely to see you Mr. Rompuy. You've not been here for many months. It's delightful to have you back. Last time you were here, you told us we've turned the corner. The worst of the crisis was over. With every one of your predictions, it goes on getting worse. I am sorry sir. You don't have the presence, the credibility, or the standing for the international markets to believe you can provide a solution." Obviously this calls for another musical tribute: Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Finland, Netherlands Reject ESM Model; Finland Insists On Collateral for Loans to Spain Posted: 03 Jul 2012 09:08 AM PDT How long Finland and the Netherlands are willing to put up with not having a say in how the ESM (or anything else in the EMU runs) remains to be seen, but both countries expect collateral for any loans to Spain. Bloomberg reports Finland Firm on Collateral as Spain Aid Terms Discussed Finland underlined its determination to get collateral in exchange for loans to Spain's banks as the Nordic country targets similar terms to those won last year on its contribution to Greece's second bailout.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 03 Jul 2012 12:13 AM PDT In spite of all the headlines and chatter the real winner in the latest of 19 EU summits was none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel. First lets take a look at numerous headlines that got the story wrong. Merkel Big Loser Reuters reports Merkel seen as big loser in euro zone showdown. Newspapers in Spain, Italy and France on Saturday toasted the triumph of their leaders - Mario Monti, Mariano Rajoy and Francois Hollande - in pushing Merkel into a U-turn that would long have been unthinkable.Hollande Big Winner A Bloomberg video proclaims Hollande Emerges as Leader at EU Summit Double Satisfaction For Italy The Financial Times says Rajoy real winner despite Monti delight "It is a double satisfaction for Italy," said Mario Monti, a reference to both Italy's victory over Germany in the European football championships and his outflanking of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, forcing her to agree emergency measures she had for months said she would not accept.No Winners or Losers Getting closer to the truth (in an attempt to ruffle no feathers as opposed to careful analysis) EU President Herman Van Rompuy says No Winners or Losers in EU Summit Clash Summit discussions between European Union and eurozone leaders ended with no winners or losers Friday, EU President Herman Van Rompuy insisted, after a clash was resolved between Italy and Spain on one side, and Germany on the other.Real Victor is Merkel I have read dozens of articles all proclaiming someone or other (or no one, or multiple people a winner). Having read all those viewpoints, the best analysis of all of them is Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Münchau who says The real victor in Brussels was Merkel Let's tune in. Mario Monti faced down the German chancellor and won the battle. He will survive a few more weeks or months in politics. It was clever of him to threaten a veto on something Angela Merkel badly needed. He had her in the corner. It was an example of classic EU diplomacy.Brick Wall of Reality I have criticized Münchau on numerous occasions but he has this nailed. I especially like his conclusion. My only quibble with the article is his statement "Monti should have insisted on a banking licence". This is where ideology comes into play. Münchau knows damn well that Merkel cannot give into such a demand without a German referendum, yet he keeps banging his wishes into the brick wall of reality because that is what he believes is best for Europe. I disagree about what is best. The point is debatable. What is not debatable is Münchau and others keep ignoring real constraints on Merkel, expecting - sometimes demanding - she do something she cannot do. Regardless, except for a single misguided sentence, Münchau made a sterling case for who really won in Brussels. Merkel Plays Hollande, Monti, Media, Even Bloggers, Like a Fiddle By purposely making antagonistic statements such as "no eurozone bonds in my lifetime", statements Merkel had to know would get trumped up in the media (and were), she set expectations for the summit, not at ground level, but rather 35 feet underground. Expectations were so low that Hollande and Rajoy felt like winners coming out of the summit. The irony is Monti won nothing at all while proclaiming "double satisfaction". Rajoy at least got something, but numerous obstacles remain. Hollande was a sideshow at best. Let's see what the bond market looks like a month from now, and six months from now before jumping to conclusions. Meanwhile, Merkel took a soft blow to her reputation at home. Eventually these blows will matter, but this blow was the bare minimum anyone could have expected. The blow only looks significant because of purposeful media-manipulating statements ahead of the summit. The real battles are still ahead because the summit solved virtually nothing. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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