Central Perk: 28 nov. 2010

duminică, 28 noiembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Much Maligned Bondholders Do God's Work; ECB Creates Incentive to Gamble
Why Pay the Mortgage or Rent when you can have 16 Months of Free Shelter? How to Deal with this Important Question
Unthinking Economic Parrots and Deflation Fighting Madness
To Ireland With Love

Much Maligned Bondholders Do God's Work; ECB Creates Incentive to Gamble

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 10:49 PM PST

Thanks in part to European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's proposal to make bondholders suffer losses from poor investment decisions was shoved aside.

Said ECB president Trichet in an exclusive interview...

"This is a victory for much maligned bondholders everywhere. I am pleased to announce we have effectively removed the word investing from the vocabulary of bondholders."

"Starting today, bondholders need not be concerned with who they lend money to, why, or what risks there are in doing so."

"Not only will this help ease turmoil in the markets, but bondholders can now think in terms of winning rather than the more mundane investing because the ECB and IMF will backstop all losses from trading bonds."

The above is a translation from today's issue of Le Monde. An official transcript will appear on the ECB's website later today.

In the meantime, Bloomberg has a few sketchy details of the announcement in an article appropriately titled Germany Drops Bond Threat

European governments sought to quell the market turmoil menacing the euro, handing debt-strapped Ireland an 85 billion-euro ($113 billion) aid package and diluting proposals to force bondholders to cover a share of future bailouts.

European finance chiefs ended crisis talks in Brussels yesterday by endorsing a Franco-German compromise on post-2013 rescues that means investors won't automatically take losses to share the cost with taxpayers as German Chancellor Angela Merkel initially proposed to the consternation of bond traders.

The first test of the twin decisions come today with markets resuming trading after speculation intensified last week that Portugal and perhaps even Spain will require external support. In a third move, Greece was told it could have an extra four-and-a-half years to repay emergency loans totaling 110 billion euros to match the seven-year term under Ireland's deal.

The German push ran into criticism from policy makers elsewhere, who called it mistimed, and from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who warned it would unsettle bondholders. Germany yesterday backed away from the pitch for an automatic penalty, agreeing to give the International Monetary Fund a role in determining losses on a case-by-case basis.

Bondholders Do God's Work

In a followup interview Trichet commented, "The debt crisis is over. We are willing to grant Greece and Ireland as much time as they need. If an extra-four-and-a-half years to repay emergency loans proves insufficient, we are willing to wait an extra-hundred-and-a-half years".

When asked if he meant 150 years or 100.5 years, Trichet replied, "I mean as long as it takes to make the ECB whole, forever if necessary. The important thing is for bondholders to never suffer losses. Heaven forbid we should ever unsettle bondholders by insinuating they may have to take some losses. Bondholders in general, not just Goldman Sachs bondholders, do God's work."

Incentive to Gamble

Please consider ECB's Noyer assures cagey markets over Ireland rescue

Noyer, the first member of the ECB's policy council to speak after euro zone ministers sealed an 85 billion euro ($115 billion) loan package for Ireland on Sunday, said he was confident the deal would bring down Dublin's borrowing costs to more normal levels.

"There is no reason to doubt the recovery plans of the two countries," Noyer said in a speech in Tokyo, referring to Ireland and Greece.

The new European Stability Mechanism outlined on Sunday would make private investors share the pain in the case of a debt default or restructuring, but it would apply only to debt issued after 2013.

Noyer, who is also governor of the Bank of France, said that he believed even then it should remain only a theoretical possibility.

"As far as I'm concerned, I exclude that there will be haircuts in the future."

Lovely. Just lovey. If there is no possibility of haircuts, why shouldn't banks invest in the riskiest garbage there is?

In fact, fools like Trichet and Noyer are effectively saying there is no such thing as risky garbage, only misguided perceptions of risky garbage.

The thing is they are lying, hoping to calm the markets. If their lies work at all, they won't work for long.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Why Pay the Mortgage or Rent when you can have 16 Months of Free Shelter? How to Deal with this Important Question

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 05:08 PM PST

Those deeply underwater on their homes have a nice option that renters and those with equity in their homes don't. That option is to stop making home payments, effectively living in their home or condo scotfree, for as long as they can.

Millions have take the option, and with each person doing so, the longer the delays. Thus, the more who take that option, the greater the reward for all who do.

The Wall Street Journal reports that it takes 492 Days From Default to Foreclosure, up from 244 days in August 2007.

The average borrower in the foreclosure process hadn't made a payment in 492 days as of the end of October, according to LPS [LPS Applied Analytics]. That compares to 382 days a year ago and a low of 244 days in August 2007.

In other words, people who default on their mortgages can reasonably expect, on average, to stay in their homes rent-free more than 16 months. In some states such as New York and Florida, the number is closer to 20 months.

Speeding up the process won't be easy, as demonstrated by the banks' continuing legal troubles related to robo-signers, bank employees who signed foreclosure affidavits without properly checking the required loan documentation.

Millions of Americans still are paying their mortgages even though they owe more than their homes are worth. The more banks' backlog grows, the more likely they are to join it, adding to the already giant pile of foreclosures weighing on the housing market.

Imperative to Speed Up Foreclosures

Clearly it is imperative to speed up the foreclosure process. To not do so is inequitable and creates moral hazards.

However, some who do not like the current system pretend to be worried about the .0004% or whatever preposterously low number of homeowners who might be kicked out of their homes allegedly in error.

Making matters even worse, a large and growing number of misguided souls think it is "unjustifiable" to boot homeowners unless and until someone can "produce the note".

Such thinking encourages still more defaults, weighs down the courts, and does nothing to produce an equitable solution, for anyone.

Simple Undeniable Facts

The simple, undeniable fact of the situation is that anyone who has not paid their mortgage for over 90 days deserves to lose their home, except in very limited conditions I describe below.

The acid test for me is the simple question "Have the mortgage payments been made, and if not, then why not?" If the answer is no, then the home owner should be given a chance to become current or lose the house.

The "limited exception" is as follows: If a homeowner can provide reasonable evidence he is late due to fault of the lender or processor, then we need to work out a suitable remedy. One equitable approach would be to remove all penalties and late fees and fine the hell out of the processor or lender, especially if there are repeated errors, perhaps giving some of those fines or fees to the homeowner.

That's it. You either paid your mortgage or didn't, either through your fault or the fault of the lender (e.g. They misapplied your mortgage payment, jacked up late fees while doing so, and did not address your concerns when you brought them up).

Anyone care to address the percentage of loans that meet that criteria?

Otherwise, booting out the homeowners for nonpayment is an equitable solution. If the lender wants to work out other solutions, that is fine by me as long as there is no requirement lenders have to make such attempts.

If a lender thinks it is in their best interest to foreclose (providing the borrower has not made payments), then foreclosure it should be.

Addressing Fraud

A second situation arises because booting out homeowners does not address robo-signings and other errors by lenders and processors, of which some are mistakes, others clearly fraudulent.

Equity in those situations can (and should) be dealt with via severe fines, suspensions, and firing those involved, all the way to the top of the pyramid.

The key point is there are two separate and distinct issues that do not have to be solved simultaneously, regardless of how many misguided souls try to portray two issues as one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Unthinking Economic Parrots and Deflation Fighting Madness

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:52 PM PST

The ineptitude of Japan's policies hoping to combat deflation is staggering. Worse yet, unthinking economic parrots talking about the "economic damages of deflation" have no idea what they are even saying.

Please consider Japan passes new $61bn stimulus package

Japan's parliament has passed a stimulus package worth about $61bn (£39bn), designed to kick-start the country's fragile economic recovery. The stimulus was designed to create jobs, Prime Minister Nato Kan said, through measures to help small businesses and boost consumer spending.

Earlier, figures showed that Japanese consumer prices fell for the 20th month in a row in October.

The vote in favour of the latest stimulus measures represents a victory for the government, which has struggled to get the package through parliament. The move is in marked contrast to European governments' policies, which are focusing on cutting spending to secure growth.

Japan has been struggling with weak growth, a high yen and deflation.

The core consumer price index fell by 0.6% in October compared with a year earlier, official figures showed. This was a slight improvement on the 1.1% price falls seen in September.

Deflation is particularly damaging to economic growth as consumers delay purchases until prices fall further.

Idiotic Premise

I stopped quoting the article on the frequently repeated premise "Deflation is particularly damaging to economic growth as consumers delay purchases until prices fall further."

I wish economic writers had the ability to think rather than parrot ideas espoused by Keynesian clowns.

Series of Questions

If your refrigerator conks out, will you buy a new one or wait 6 months to take advantage of lower prices?
If the transmission on your car fails will you wait 6 months to get it fixed?
If your pantry is bare, will you wait 1 month to buy food even if you expect food prices to drop?
If you need a new winter coat, will you wait and if so, how long?

The answer to that last question is "Perhaps for a bit, but you will not wait 3 years even if you expect prices will be even lower 3 years from now."

Short of assets like stocks, bonds, and housing (and except for periods of hyperinflation) it is tough to cite any examples where inflation expectations mean a damn thing.

Unthinking Economic Parrots

Yet week in and week out, articles like the above parrot misguided ideas about inflation expectations. Worse yet, they spew forth nonsense that falling ideas are a bad thing.

Ask anyone on fixed income if falling prices are a bad thing. Ask students or those on minimum wage if falling prices are a bad thing.

Think you will have many takers? From either group?

The only people who say falling prices are unwelcome are the bankers, the stock brokers, government and economic parrots who misguidedly trumpet economic claptrap from the bankers, the stock brokers, government, all of whom benefit from inflation because of rising taxes and/or because they have first access to money.

In effect, parrots serve as pawns for the wealthy, for central bankers, and for government officials who wants a bigger piece of your paycheck via rising sales taxes, rising property taxes, and rising income taxes.

In reality, inflation is theft from the middle and lower classes for the benefit of government, the wealthy, and also public union workers who have inflation adjusted benefits written into many of their contracts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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To Ireland With Love

Posted: 27 Nov 2010 11:39 PM PST

IMF's Trojan Horse Gift to Ireland

I believe we have all heard the story and know how it ends.

Iceland is No Ireland

Inquiring Irish minds just might be interested to see how Iceland fared after they told EU bankers to go to hell. For the answer, please consider Iceland Is No Ireland as State Kept Free of Bank Debt

Iceland's President Olafur R. Grimsson said his country is better off than Ireland thanks to the government's decision to allow the banks to fail two years ago and because the krona could be devalued.

"The difference is that in Iceland we allowed the banks to fail," Grimsson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television's Mark Barton today. "These were private banks and we didn't pump money into them in order to keep them going; the state did not shoulder the responsibility of the failed private banks."

"How far can we ask ordinary people -- farmers and fishermen and teachers and doctors and nurses -- to shoulder the responsibility of failed private banks," said Grimsson. "That question, which has been at the core of the Icesave issue, will now be the burning issue in many European countries."

Vote the Bums Out and Tell the EU and IMF to Go to Hell

Unfortunately, the idiots running Ireland's government, especially Minister Brian Cowen, don't see it the way Iceland's president does.

However, Iceland's government did not see it that way either, but the citizens of Iceland took matters into their own hands and voted the bums out, rejecting "Icesave".

Regardless of what deal Cowen signs, I see no reason it need be binding on the next Irish Parliament. Indeed, I recommend to to citizens of Ireland that they firmly tell their representatives that if they vote for Cowen's proposed budget, they will be voted out of office.

That may be all it will take to stop this nonsense right here right now. Should I be wrong, the remedy is simple: Vote the bums out and vote in a Prime Minister and Parliament who will tell the IMF and EU to go to hell.

Just Who The Hell Do You Think You Are?

Nigel Farage in a speech before European Parliament says "The Euro Game Is Up… Just Who The Hell Do You Think You Are?"

Words alone cannot describe that video. Please play it.

ANY Rate is Onerous

In case you missed it, please consider In Rare Agreement with Krugman; Onerous "Bailout" Rates of 6.7% Denied; Don't do Stupid Things; "Tell the EU and IMF to Shove It!"

All these questions "Is the rate 4.7%, 5.2%, or 6.7% and if so for who long and on what portion?" are complete silliness.

ANY Rate is Onerous.

Except for those who participated in the property bubble (and they will be adequately punished), the people of Ireland are not at fault, at least in general.

Should Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen manage to hang on long enough to get the votes for an onerous bailout, I would encourage Irish voter to elect someone who campaigns on a promise to renege on the deal and default.

Irish citizens cannot afford to rescue German, UK, and French banks stupid enough to bet on bubbles in Ireland. It should be the creditors' problem not the problem of Irish citizens.

There is much more in the article so please give it a look if you haven't done so already.

Structural Reforms Needed

Bear in mind Ireland does need structural reforms. Those reforms must include some sacrifices such as lower minimum wages and reduced public sector employment.

However, it would be foolish for Ireland to raise corporate income taxes or pay one penny to bail out UK, German, French, or US banks.

Iceland told its creditors to go to hell and is better off for it. Ireland can do the same.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Seth's Blog : Unwarranted fear of claim chowder

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Unwarranted fear of claim chowder

John taught me this fabulous term. Claim chowder is what happens when you make a prediction about the future and you end up being totally and tragically wrong. Like Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

While I wouldn't encourage anyone to go as far as Ballmer in this endeavor, it turns out that no one ever got a terminal illness from claim chowder. While it might be frightening to imagine, it's not so bad in practice. Try it.

Have an opinion. Defend it. It will make you smarter.