joi, 9 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Recovery Fades in UK; UK Trade Deficit Hits Record; US Trade Deficit Shrinks; Jobless Claims Drop or Not?

Posted: 09 Sep 2010 07:47 PM PDT

The recovery in the UK has faded, with manufacturing, housing, and services all weakening in August. In response the BOE Mulls 'Second Wave' of Stimulus
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may have to embark on a new round of bond purchases as Britain's rebound from the worst recession since World War II fades.

Manufacturing, services and construction all faltered in August and the housing market weakened, surveys showed last week. That suggests 200 billion pounds ($309 billion) in bond purchases by the central bank since March 2009 and record-low interest rates may not be enough to keep up the economy's momentum in the deepest budget squeeze in more than six decades.

"They are more likely to loosen policy further before they tighten it," Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas in London, said in a telephone interview. "The danger is acting too late and not soon enough."

BNP economist Clarke says Bank of England officials could probably justify further bond purchases using their new forecasts, though the current strength of price pressures makes it less palatable for them as they seek to preserve their inflation-fighting credentials.

"Clearly they are concerned that loosening in an environment where the latest GDP figure is 1.2 percent and the latest inflation figure is above 3 percent would undermine their credibility," he said. "That's the trap they're in."
Quantitative easing did nothing for the US, nothing for Japan, and nothing for the UK (at least for the real economy). Yet central bankers seem committed to the strategy.

UK Trade Deficit Hits Record

Economists in the UK were disappointed to see U.K. Trade Deficit Widens to Record
The U.K.'s trade deficit widened to a record in July as purchases of chemicals and oil drove imports to the highest level in two years.

The goods-trade gap widened to 8.7 billion pounds ($13.4 billion) from 7.5 billion pounds and June, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 7.5 billion-pound deficit. Exports fell 0.9 percent and imports rose 3.1 percent.

While the jump in imports may signal strength in domestic demand, weakening exports suggest the economy is failing to benefit from the weakness of the pound, which has fallen by a about a fifth on a trade-weighted basis since the start of 2007.
US Trade Deficit Narrows

Economists in the US were surprised to find US Trade Deficit Narrows, Unemployment Claims Drop
The trade gap shrank 14 percent, the most since February 2009, to $42.8 billion, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The deficit was less than the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Overseas shipments increased 1.8 percent to $153.3 billion, the highest since August 2008, while purchases from abroad declined 2.1 percent. Economists projected a deficit of $47 billion, according to the median of 73 estimates in the Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from $43 billion to $52 billion.

Trade subtracted 3.37 percentage points from growth in April through June, the most since record-keeping began in 1947. The Commerce Department on Aug. 27 lowered its estimate for second-quarter growth to a 1.6 percent annual rate from the previously projected 2.4 percent. A final estimate for the quarter will be released Sept. 30.
Increased exports vs. imports will be a positive factor in GDP, so perhaps we will not see a negative 3rd quarter GDP. Nonetheless I expect surprises to be to the downside.

Jobless Claims Drop or Not?

Weekly unemployment claims fell this week as did the 4-week moving average as noted in Weekly Claims Drop to 451,000, 4-Week Moving Average at 478,000; Where to From Here?

One thing I missed was 9 states including California did not track claims because of Labor Day. From the preceding Bloomberg article...
Nine states didn't file claims data with the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday, a department official told reporters as the figures were released. California and Virginia estimated their claims, and the U.S. government estimated the other seven.
Because of the holiday and more importantly because nine states made estimates, I do not think anyone can trust this drop in claims at all. Look for big revisions next week.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Goldman Marks Top in Municipal Bond Market?

Posted: 09 Sep 2010 10:45 AM PDT

History shows that whatever Goldman is peddling in a big way to cities, counties, or retail investors, be it interest rate swaps or derivatives, or advice, those investors would be better off not taking it.

With that in mind, please consider Goldman in Bond Deal
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is about to start selling municipal bonds directly to mom and pop.

The New York company plans to enter a partnership this week with Chicago securities firm Incapital LLC to sell bonds issued by U.S. states, cities and towns to individual investors, according to a person familiar with the situation.

The arrangement will make billions of dollars of municipal bonds underwritten by Goldman available for sale by at least 85,000 brokers in Incapital's distribution network of broker-dealer firms.

The move allows Goldman to branch out into a lucrative area of the fixed-income markets, a haven for retail investors scared off by volatility in the stock market and riskier corporate credit markets. While some municipalities are facing budget crises, it is rare for municipal bonds to default. Such securities yield more than certificates of deposit or other ultra-safe investments and are tax-free in most cases, making them a staple in retiree savings accounts.
Ultra-Safe?

Words like "ultra-safe" portend a hint of disaster. Remember when home prices could never go down? Now retail investors are plowing into municipal bonds and municipal bond funds as the next safe-haven.

Even if there is not a series of municipal bond disasters coming up, yields are so compressed, that investing in municipals makes little sense. The timing of Goldman Sachs into such offerings is icing on the "best to stay away" cake.

Look for Goldman to bet against the worst of the crap they intend to feed to retail investors.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Weekly Claims Drop to 451,000, 4-Week Moving Average at 478,000; Where to From Here?

Posted: 09 Sep 2010 10:10 AM PDT

Weekly Claims fell this week to 451,000 but that number is still consistent with an economy losing jobs.

Please consider the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for September 9, 2010.
In the week ending Sept. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 451,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 477,750, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week's revised average of 487,000.
Unemployment Claims



The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it's best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims



The 4-week moving average is still near the peak results of the last two recessions. It's important to note those are raw numbers, not population adjusted. Nonetheless, the numbers do indicate broad, persistent weakness.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Since 2007



No Lasting Improvement for 8 Months

There has been no lasting improvement since December 2009, eight months ago. The above chart is slightly off, the Fed has not updated the series yet today. The last data point is at 451,000.

To be consistent with an economy adding jobs coming out of a recession, the number of claims needs to fall to the 400,000 level.

At some point employers will be as lean as they can get (and still stay in business). Yet, that does not mean businesses are about to go on a big hiring boom. Indeed, unless consumer spending picks up, they won't.

Questions on the Weekly Claims vs. the Unemployment Rate

A question keeps popping up in emails: "How can we lose 400,000+ jobs a week and yet have the unemployment rate stay flat and the monthly jobs report show gains?"

The answer is the economy is very dynamic. People change jobs all the time. Note that from 1975 forward, the number of claims was generally above 300,000 a week, yet some months the economy added well over 250,000 jobs.

Also note that the monthly published unemployment rate is from a household survey, not a survey of payroll data from businesses. That is why the monthly "establishment survey" (a sampling of actual payroll data) is not always in alignment with changes in the unemployment rate. At economic turns the discrepancy can be wide.

With census effects nearly played out, It may be quite some time before we weekly claims drop to 400,000 or net hiring that exceeds +250,000.

Want to know why some businesses aren't hiring? Please consider Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price

Where To From Here?

Three weeks ago there was a weekly claims print above 500,000. That number will roll off the 4-week moving average next week.

Assuming another 451,000 print next week, the 4-week moving average would be about 465,000 - a decline of another 12,000 or so. Even still, the number will nothing to crow about. Moreover, I am still expecting lots of state cutbacks so that could have an impact. However, claims have been generally in 450,000 range for 8 straight months of sideways movement so we can easily see more of the same.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

65% Fear Double-Dip, 71% Say US is Fundamentally Broken, Net 32% Expect to Reduce Spending

Posted: 08 Sep 2010 11:59 PM PDT

It is quite clear the US economy is sliding back towards recession, if not still in it. The average consumer understands that, yet the average economist doesn't.

How is it that the average consumer has a better grip on the economy that the average economist? Regardless of the answer, here are some interesting survey results from Americans Fear "Double Dip" Recession & European Financial Problems.

  • 92% say the US is still in recession
  • 65% fear a 'double dip' recession
  • 57% are fearful about running out of money in the next year
  • 44% could easily see their family slipping into bankruptcy if things get worse
  • 42% say they will spend less money than they did over the last 3 months, while just 10% will spend more. 48% report their personal spending will likely stay even
  • 09% say the US is in a 1930s style economic depression
  • 72% say Europe's financial problems likely to hurt US
  • 42% say that they or their spouse has had wages or salary reduced
  • 34% say they or their spouse lost their job or has been laid off
  • 33% have taken on more hours or another job to try and make ends meet
  • 28% dipped into a planned retirement account like an IRA or 401K because they needed the money
  • 09% have had their house foreclosed on
  • 08% had their child delay college (or graduate school) or drop out to save money
  • 20% expect their personal finances will recover by the end of 2011, 27% say after the end of 2011, 24% say their personal finances won't ever fully recover

"Attitudes towards the current economic climate should be very concerning for those who sell consumers goods and services. The perception that the economy is likely slowing down again is leading consumers to tighten their belts and keep their wallets and purses closed. Consumer marketers will need to figure out how to best dial up the perceived value of what they are selling in order to stay on track", said Bradley Honan of StrategyOne.

For a discussion of whether or not the recession has ended, please see NBER Likely to say "Recession Ended" July 2009; Assessing the Real Time Probability US Back in Recession

At this juncture, the debate as to whether the recession has ended or not is actually moot. The pertinent factor is: If there was a recovery, it now seems over.

Looking ahead, attitudes rule. With consumer spending weak and weakening, and now that the stimulus has run its course, the odds the 3rd and/or 4th quarter GDP numbers will be negative are quite high, as are the odds of double digit unemployment numbers by the end of the year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:14 0 comentarii

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

Priceless CRO Advice for $224

Posted: 08 Sep 2010 11:28 AM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

The past few years have seen an explosion of usability and Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) tools hit the market. There have been many good roundup posts about these tools, but I want to focus today on a more in-depth approach to putting just 3 of these tools to work: (1) Five Second Test, (2) Crazy Egg, and (3) UserTesting.com. Total cost to do one round of testing: $224.

(1) Five Second Test ($20)

Five Second Test ScreenThe premise behind Five Second Test is incredibly simple – show a visitor your site for 5 seconds and see what they remember (or, alternatively, where they click). This is a great starting point for getting some starter observations about your visitors.

How It Works
Setup is easy – just submit a screenshot of your web page or prototype (great for design comparisons) and the replies start coming in. You can view them individually or grouped by concepts. Five Second Test is actually free, but the $20/month package means you'll get a larger response rate. It's worth the extra cash, IMO. You can also earn credits ("karma") by taking other people's tests – it's kind of fun and can be informative.

What to Test
Think about the kind of things you want your visitors to know about in 5 seconds: The big questions: Who, What, Why. Here are a few uses I recommend:

  • Do visitors recognize your brand?
  • Do people get what you do?
  • Is your tagline descriptive and effective?
  • Is your page too visually noisy?
  • Is Concept B better than Concept A?
  • Can people find your call to action?

If people are remembering things like "blue", "blonde girl", and "ugly site", you know you've got some work to do (those aren't far from real examples of what I've seen).

(2) Crazy Egg ($9)

Crazy Egg ScreenHeat-mapping tools like Crazy Egg take user activity and translate it into visual maps, helping you to easily visualize how people interact with your site. Crazy Egg was founded by SEO wonder kid Neil Patel, and is an amazing bargain at $9/month. If you can't bother to spend $9 on improving your website, feel free to stop reading this post. I'm serious – go buy a Venti Iced Mocha and a cookie instead of spending money on your business.

How It Works
This one's a little bit trickier – you'll have to install a JavaScript snippet similar to Google Analytics and other tools. Then, Crazy Egg starts tracking clicks on your specified page (try to stick to one page, as jumping pages can produce odd results).

What to Test
Crazy Egg not only allows you create to visual heat maps, but also has a "confetti" mode that lets you visualize clicks by segments, such as referring sources and new vs. returning visitors. Here are a few questions a heat-mapping tool can help you answer:

  • Are people clicking where you want them to click?
  • Is your navigation effective?
  • Do you have too many choices?
  • Do search visitors behave differently?
  • Is your call to action getting clicks?

Although some heat-mapping tools can get bogged down in the visuals, I think that Crazy Egg has a very simple, elegant reporting approach that can give you solid insights quickly. Once you've gathered some initial impressions from Five Second Test and Crazy Egg, it's time to do some real user testing...

(3) UserTesting.com ($195)

UserTesting.com ScreenIt used to be that user testing required a lab, expensive equipment, and a difficult recruiting process. Now, you can use remote testing services like UserTesting.com to get quick, inexpensive user feedback. While I won't say it compares apples-to-apples to laboratory testing, I often find that the insights from even a handful of remote testing subjects can be incredibly useful.

How It Works
Setup is pretty straightforward, but doing it right can take a little bit of time. Technically, you just need to submit your URL and a few instructions to visitors. You pay $39 per visitor and receive both written feedback and an online video of the user walking through your site (with voice-over). Although this is a topic of some debate in the usability community, 5 users is a good number for uncovering core insights and getting solid bang for your buck.

What to Test
Take some time setting up your questions. Traditional usability tests are task-oriented – you tell someone to try to complete a task in a fairly open-ended fashion and watch them go to work. Be specific about the task and ask follow-up questions, like "Would you trust this site enough to make a purchase?" (I generally ask 3-4 follow-ups). A few questions this kind of qualitative testing can help you answer:

  • Can people complete the task?
  • How long does task completion take?
  • Do users experience common stumbling blocks?
  • What are visitors thinking out loud about?
  • Does your search/navigation work as expected?
  • Are you missing features people might be looking for?
  • Do visitors get frustrated using your site?

Qualitative testing can be a great precursor to quantitative (A/B and multivariate) testing. Don't throw design changes at the wall and see what sticks – put user testing to work to uncover hidden issues on your site. We all need a fresh pair (or 5 pairs) of eyes from time to time.

Here's to $224 Well Spent

I'm an entrepreneur and a Bohemian – I understand that parting with money isn't easy. The insights you'll gain from just over $200, though, will, in my experience, easily yield 10X or even 100X back in online sales improvement. Solid qualitative data collection will also prevent you from making costly mistakes and will better inform how you look at your analytics and quantitative testing. There are plenty of good tools out there – choose a couple of them, and really put the effort into understanding how they work. You'll be well rewarded.

Update: We just published a YOUmoz post about Crazy Egg that should be an interesting read for anyone who enjoyed this article. David gives some nice examples and a case study of how heat-mapping got one of his clients an 87% conversion boost.


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Michael Gray - Graywolf's SEO Blog

Michael Gray - Graywolf's SEO Blog

What I Read and How I Read It

Posted: 09 Sep 2010 07:33 AM PDT

Post image for What I Read and How I Read It

While I may be on the leading edge of consumption trends (translation: I’m a spoiled geek who likes new shiny gadgets), I think it’s important to understand how things work and how they might look to the public at large in a few years.

RSS

While I admit rss is not a technology that is ever going to be adopted by the mainstream (see the big fat rss lie), it’s still something I use almost daily. For my projects, client projects, and search related industry news (and the occasional bit of humor), I use Google reader. I skim through the the posts first thing in the morning. Unless it’s urgent, I send it off to instapaper (more on that below) to read later. The Google rss converter has made this really efficient for sites that don’t publish rss directly. Since I started using an iPad, I use the mobile rss app that syncs up with Google reader. The cloud based synchronization is key for me and I feel will be for others in the future. I used to use newsrack, but the recent update made it unusable. Pulse is a good app, but the font is too small for my liking and the lack of instapaper integration made it a deal breaker for me. The mobile rss app also lets me send things to instapaper right from the app, which is another key feature. Check the end of this post for a client sanitized list of feeds I read.

Netvibeso

For sites that I run and Twitter accounts I run for myself or clients, I need things to write about, link to, or tweet about. Netvibes is the tool I use to get things done. I set up one tab per industry and quickly parse through it every day or two. I use easytweets to schedule my tweets in the future so I can get things done, have a life, and go on vacation without losing momentum (see my easytweets review).

iPad News apps

I mentioned before that the iPad has changed how I consume media and interact with social media sites. I’ll read stuff, tweet out links that are interesting, send them to instapaper, or email them to myself to remind me to schedule them later with easytweets.

Instapaper

Instapaper is one of my favorite apps. It saves me a tremendous amount of time. I’m also glad to say I’m a paying pro supporter of the service. Instapaper allows me to read content in a stripped down, text only version, and it allows me to do it offline–useful for times when I’m on a plane, on vacation someplace that doesn’t have wifi, or in another country that my 3G plan doesn’t cover. The most important aspect is cloud based synchronization. So I can send items to instapaper from my computer, then I can read them while I’m on a treadmill at the gym (using my iPhone) or on a plane (using the iPad). Once I am back on the grid, a quick refresh brings everything back in sync. Another cool aspect: I can forward a tweet or link to instapaper and it is smart enough to follow the trail and extract the content. The stripped down and extracted content has two important aspects. First, partial feeds don’t work with instapaper so, if you publish partial feeds, you suck and should rethink that practice. Second, learning how to push  out content and ads where the ads don’t get stripped out will become more important in the coming years (see advertising and usability)

Flipboard

Flipboard is a cool new iPad app that takes content from your Twitter, Facebook, and other news sources, extracts it, and presents it in magazine format. Legally, it is on questionable ground, but it’s really cool, easy, and just a plain fun way to get your news and content.

Click here to view the embedded video.

The thing Flipboard underscored for me is that you need to moderate who can put things in your streams if you want it to be useful, effective, interesting, and not polluted with spam. (see the SEO community friends and scorpions).

My feed list

I debated publishing this list for a while but decided to do it. You may find some well known marquee name SEO and marketing feeds aren’t on the list. To be honest the quality on a lot of SEO blogs is hit or miss nowadays, and I don’t have time to wade through the posts. When one of them does make a noteworthy post it will get retweeted by enough people and will find me anyway, so I don’t worry about “missing” the news as much as I used to. The second is I don’t have time for multiple-posts-per-day blogs. I know there are a lot of SEO news blogs that do this and they are high quality, but I just don’t have the time to read 3-6 posts per day. Sorry.

Creative Commons License photo credit: henribergius

This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis WordPress Theme review.

What I Read and How I Read It

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Daily Snapshot: "The America I Believe In"

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, September 9, 2010
 

Photo of the Day

Photo of the Day - September 7, 2010

First Lady Michelle Obama participates in a "Let's Move!" launch event with members of the National Football League at Woldenberg Park in New Orleans, La., Sept. 8, 2010. At right are former NFL coach Tony Dungy and former Tennessee Titans running back Eddie George (27). (Official White House Photo by Samantha Appleton)

 View more photos.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

10:00 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:30 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

1:00 PM: Briefing by Press Secretary Robert Gibbs WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:30 PM: The President meets with Secretary of the Treasury Geithner

2:30 PM: Listos Para Sus Preguntas: CuidadoDeSalud.gov (Open for Questions: HealthCare.gov in Spanish)  WhiteHouse.gov/live

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog. 

President Obama on the Economy in Cleveland: "The America I Believe In"
The President laid out a stark contrast between policies that help the economy work for the middle class and the policies that allowed special interests to run amok -- and to run our economy into a ditch.

Fighting Foreclosures and Strengthening Neighborhoods
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan writes about the Neighborhood Stabilization Program.

Boehner's Budget Gimmicks: Another Attempt to Hold Middle Class Tax Cuts Hostage
Deputy Communications Director Jen Psaki looks at how Republicans are trying to mask the cost of their tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans as they threaten to block middle class tax cuts to get their way.

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