sâmbătă, 23 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Nearly Retired? Facing a Huge Increase in Healthcare Costs? More on "Opting Out" of Obamacare

Posted: 23 Nov 2013 12:40 PM PST

Risk of Opting Out
 
In response to Gambling On No Healthcare Insurance: Is it a Good Deal? Here's the Math; Obamashock! Work More, Get Less! "Money Multiplier Man" replied...
If you get a heart attack, you cannot wait until open enrollment. You need treatment now. And the hospital will send you a bill for $92,000. So if you are without insurance, you're in big trouble.
That is precisely the risk (actually one of them). Yet, how likely is that scenario for someone under 30 and in good health? For those in good health, an auto accident may be more likely. Still - accidents happen.

But for someone with little money or assets, why not take the chance? Bankruptcy is always an option.

Ultimately, this line of thinking may cause millions to opt out. And it is not just the young who will opt out.

Nearly Retired? Facing a Huge Increase in Healthcare Costs?

Reader Lynn faces that unwelcome prospect.

Her solution, yet one she really would prefer not to be forced to make, was to "opt out" and pay the penalty.

Lynne writes ...
Hello Mish,

Your articles are always a well-written source of insight, wisdom and common sense for me. Thank you for providing excellent current event commentaries!

I am a 61 year old self-employed woman who received notice from Anthem Blue Cross on November 4th that my individual health insurance plan was being cancelled because of the "Affordable" Care Act. My health plan currently costs $225 per month and I am happy with it. The notice goes on to say that unless I elect something else by December 15, 2013 I will be automatically enrolled in a new ACA-compliant health plan at a cost of $530 per month, a 136% percent increase in premium. My annual health plan cost will increase from $2,700 to $6,360 for 2014.

The bottom line for me is a choice between reducing the amount of my retirement plan contributions by $3,660 per year or going without health insurance and paying the penalty. As a self-employed person who couldn't afford to start saving for retirement until my mid-forties, I'm equally afraid of either choice.

In trying to understand what caused health insurance plans to skyrocket in cost, I found out that to be ACA-compliant they must now cover things like maternity care and pediatric dental -- even if you're a 61 year old empty nester!

After researching my state's exchange web site it appears that I'm ineligible for any premium subsidies or cost-sharing assistance. My husband's income (he's on Medicare) must also be counted and our combined income is over the $62,040 threshold. And after speaking with my long-time insurance agent, there aren't any other health insurance options available to me next year for much less than $530 per month.

So, what to do? I'm healthy now and I'll be eligible for Medicare in less than four years, can I make it that long without a serious ailment? I'm inclined to go without health insurance, even knowing it's a huge financial risk. But so is not having enough retirement savings.

Update: this week I received another notice from Anthem Blue Cross. They're allowing me to opt into continuing my current health coverage through February 28, 2014. Of course I've already signed up for this, but it only postpones my gut-wrenching decision by two months.

The Obamacare mess reminds me of the 2008 presidential platform slogan "Hope and Change" -- his changes have me hoping that US citizens can regain freedom from a meddling, control-freak government.

Thanks again for your insightful writings,

Lynne
Reader Lynne provides yet another reason to "opt out" and pay the penalty. Ultimately, how many will opt out?

We will find out within a couple of months.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

UKIP "Last Best Hope for Britain"; May 2014 European Parliament Vote: What Shift is Taking Place? Political Earthquake?

Posted: 23 Nov 2013 09:36 AM PST

One of the UK's wealthiest men has pledged "whatever it takes" to ensure the UK Independence Party triumphs in the 2014 European Parliament elections.

The BBC reports Tycoon Paul Sykes backs UKIP European election campaign
Eurosceptic Paul Sykes said UKIP was the "last best hope for Britain" and he would help fund its election campaign.

Mr Sykes, who has formerly backed the Conservatives, made donations to UKIP between 2001 and 2004. His latest funds will pay for UKIP's advertising. UKIP leader Nigel Farage said Mr Sykes' backing was a "significant boost".

Mr Sykes, who is estimated to have a fortune of around £650m, has given no indication of how much he is prepared to donate on this occasion, but said he believed the European elections were "the one last chance to stop the gradual erosion of our national independence".

"Nigel Farage and UKIP are the last best hope for Britain. I am prepared to do whatever it takes to propel them to victory next year."

He said he hoped success for UKIP at next year's election would lead to an early referendum on the UK's membership of the EU rather than "hanging about to 2017".

"I think it's time to step up and bring the referendum forward to 2015," he said.
May 2014 European Parliament Vote

To help understand what's at stake, Wikipedia reports the European Parliament Elections will be held in all member states of the European Union (EU) between 22 and 25 May 2014, as decided unanimously by the Council.

It will be the eighth Europe-wide election to the European Parliament since the first direct elections in 1979.

What Shift is Taking Place?

I asked reader Bernd from Germany for election comments. He replied ...
Hello Mish,

This is a difficult question.

The large number of Euro-skeptic or EU skeptic parties are considering a common platform, but there is a huge rift within the right.

Last week Geert Wilder's Freedom Party of The Netherlands and Marine Le Pen's FN agreed to form an "Alliance of the Right" for the coming EU elections.

Currently the following alliances on the right are existing already:

  • "Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists"
  • "Movement for a free and democratic Europe"
  • "European Democratic Party"
  • "Alliance of European National Movement"
  • "Free European Alliance"
  • "European Alliance for Freedom"
  • "Pirates of Europe"
  • "Christian Political Movement for Europe"
  • "EU Democrats"

All the above are subsumed under Euro-skeptics and have a total of 115 Seats in the EU Parliament.

To compare:

  • Christian Democrats (European Peoples Party)   275 Seats
  • Social Democrats (Party of European Socialists) 194 Seats
  • Liberals (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats)      85 Seats
  • Greens (European Green Party)                             56 Seats
  • The Left (Party of the European Left)                   35 Seats

Already the Euro/EU-skeptics are the third largest group in the EU Parliament.

As measured by seat pickups, I anticipate that the Euro-skeptics will be the winner of the coming elections. However, the rift between the eurosceptics in general and the extreme right wing parties will be more evident and more significant.

Clearly UKIP from UK and AFD from Germany have very little common ground with Golden Dawn from Greece, Front National of France or Freedom Party of Holland.

The latter are clearly nationalistic, anti-Islamic and anti-Semitic, whilst the first two are only EU and Euro-skeptic, not willing to embrace the other, uglier values of right wing parties.

In Germany, in Austria, in France, in UK, in Holland and in Belgium – the countries I frequently visit and over which I claim some knowledge, the EU-Parliament is seen as a joke. It is a show Parliament, with no real power, introduced to give the appearance of Democracy to the EU.

Regardless, the established main stream parties will do everything in their power to prevent the Euro-skeptic block from growing. I expect to see the usual smear campaigns by the media, throwing Euro-skeptics and right wing extremists into one basket. This will work in many places, but not everywhere. For example, smear campaigns are unlikely to work in France and Holland, but very likely in Germany.

I expect that the Euro-skeptic block will grow substantially – however I don't expect the block to be number 2 in overall votes.

Thus, I doubt that the party mix in the EU-Parliament will have any bearing on EU Politics in the years to come. The agenda for the EU is set elsewhere and will be pushed through without regard to the will of the people.

Bernd
UK Prosper Outside EU

UKIP leader Nigel Farage claims Britain would prosper outside EU
Britain would flourish outside the EU, Nigel Farage has said, predicting UKIP will cause a "political earthquake" in European elections next year. Addressing the party's annual conference, he said leaving the union would "open a door to the world".
Political Earthquake?

I strongly agree with Farage that the UK is far better off outside the EU. But what about a "political earthquake"?

If "political earthquake" means policy shifts within the EU, then I would side with Bernd in that nothing much will change in European parliament, adding (but the voices, the debate, and the finger-pointing will all get more intense as Germany and France slide back into recession).

If, "political earthquake" means more UK awareness and eurosceptcism, with an increased likelihood of an up-or-down vote on UK membership in the EU, Farage may very well be correct, and I hope he is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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Seth's Blog : Almost everything I don't know about social media...

 

Almost everything I don't know about social media...

I just finished Gary Vaynerchuk's new book. It comes out next week, and I recommend you spend some time with it.

Also! Here's a list of my most popular blog posts of 2012, together with a link to a bound collection of the best of my blog and ebooks from the last seven years...

       

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Working with Both Parties to Keep the Economy Moving Forward

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Working with Both Parties to Keep the Economy Moving Forward

In his weekly address, President Obama says our economy is moving in the right direction. We have cut our deficits by more than half, businesses have created millions of new jobs, and we have taken significant steps to reverse our addiction to foreign oil and fix our broken health care system.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 
 
 
  Top Stories

Honoring the Medal of Freedom Recipients: On Wednesday, President Obama honored 16 Medal of Freedom recipients during a ceremony in the East Room.

The Presidential Medal of Freedom was established 50 years ago by President John F. Kennedy and is our nation’s highest civilian honor. This year’s recipients include sports champions, scientists, activists, musicians, journalists and public servants. “These are the men and women who in their extraordinary lives remind us all of the beauty of the human spirit, the values that define us as Americans, the potential that lives inside of all of us,” President Obama said.

Tribute to President John F. Kennedy: President Obama, former President Bill Clinton, First Lady Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton traveled to Arlington National Cemetery to lay a wreath at the eternal flame, in honor of President Kennedy’s life and legacy.

150th Anniversary of the Gettysburg Address: One hundred and fifty years ago on Tuesday, President Abraham Lincoln delivered the Gettysburg Address from Gettysburg, PA. President Obama handwrote an essay in tribute to Lincoln’s historic speech for an exhibit at the Lincoln Presidential Library. Make sure to read President Obama’s essay here.

Filibuster Rule Change: President Obama spoke from the White House Press Briefing Room on Thursday on the Senate’s vote to change the way the filibuster works. In his remarks, the President stated his support for the change.

All too often, we've seen a single senator or a handful of senators choose to abuse arcane procedural tactics to unilaterally block bipartisan compromises, or to prevent well-qualified, patriotic Americans from filling critical positions of public service in our system of government.

The President also spoke about why this change is especially important right now. “It's no longer used in a responsible way to govern. It's rather used as a reckless and relentless tool to grind all business to a halt,” the President said. Read his full remarks here.

Wall Street Journal CEO Council Meeting: The President spoke at the annual Wall Street Journal CEO Council meeting before sitting down for a question and answer session. There the President spoke on a wide range of issues including immigration, education and the Affordable Care Act.

Vice President in Panama: Vice President Biden traveled to Panama on Monday to look at the Panama Canal and the expansion project, which is set to open in 2015. The expansion project will double the capacity of the Panama Canal and allow for larger ships. The Vice President also met with the President of Panama, Ricardo Martinelli and conducted a wreath-laying ceremony.
 

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Seth's Blog : The sound of confidence

 

The sound of confidence

It's a blend of two things. "I'd really like to help you," and, "If this isn't for you, that's okay, there are others it might be a better match for."

Generosity, not arrogance. Problem-solving, not desperation. Helpfulness, not selfishness.

       

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