Central Perk: 22 aug. 2012

miercuri, 22 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9-Month Low, New Export Orders Plunge at Sharpest Rate Since March 2009
Fed to Deliver More Stimulus "Fairly Soon"; How Much Stimulus Does It Take? Sell the News Event Coming Up?
Indiana's Voucher System Doubles, Public Schools Fight Back With Billboard Ad Campaign; Three Sure-Fire Ways To Improve Schools
CBO Expects 2013 "Fiscal Cliff" Recession Because of Automatic Spending Cuts and Tax Hikes

China Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9-Month Low, New Export Orders Plunge at Sharpest Rate Since March 2009

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 09:31 PM PDT

Adding to the grim news on global growth, the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows new export business declines at sharpest rate since March 2009.

Key points

Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 47.8 (49.3 in July). 9-month low.
Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 47.9 (50.9 in July). 5-month low.

China PMI

China New Export Business

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

"Falling orders dragged down the August flash PMI to a nine-month low, suggesting Chinese producers are still struggling with strong global headwinds. To achieve the stated policy goal of stabilizing growth and the jobs market, Beijing must step up policy easing to lift infrastructure investment in the coming months."

Absurd Proposal

Notice the sheer absurdity of the proposal: "Beijing must step up policy easing to lift infrastructure investment in the coming months".

China is loaded up with malls with no shoppers, trains with no passengers, and even entire cities where no one lives, and economists want or expect China to start more infrastructure projects.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Fed to Deliver More Stimulus "Fairly Soon"; How Much Stimulus Does It Take? Sell the News Event Coming Up?

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 07:49 PM PDT

Analysts poring over the July 31 - August 1, 2012 Fed Minutes quickly honed in on the following paragraph. I put the key sentence in italics.

The Committee had provided additional accommodation at its previous meeting by announcing the continuation of the maturity extension program through the end of the year, and more time was seen as necessary to evaluate the effects of that decision. Nonetheless, many members expected that at the end of 2014, the unemployment rate would still be well above their estimates of its longer-term normal rate and that inflation would be at or below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent. A number of them indicated that additional accommodation could help foster a more rapid improvement in labor market conditions in an environment in which price pressures were likely to be subdued. Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.

Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action. One member judged that additional accommodation would likely not be effective in improving the economic outlook and viewed the potential costs associated with such action as unacceptably high. At the conclusion of the discussion, members agreed that they would closely monitor economic and financial developments and carefully weigh the potential benefits and costs of various tools in assessing whether additional policy action would be warranted.

What's the Definition of Many?

There are 12 voting members on the FOMC.

Is "many" three, four, or seven? I think the wording of the Fed minutes was purposely vague, hoping to get a "bang for no buck".

Nonetheless, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, the Chicago Tribune, the Hill, the Daily Beast, and numerous other sites are all expecting another round of QE.

Of course I expect another round as well, just not necessarily at the next meeting.

Indeed I think the Fed will take a pass at the next meeting unless all hell breaks loose before the next meeting which is September 12-13. Otherwise, I expect a "Fed does not want to interfere with the election" type of statement.

How Much Stimulus Does It Take?

Please note that the federal government is running budget deficits exceeding $1 trillion for four years running. That deficit is well beyond any stimulus the Fed could possibly provide.

Yet, unemployment rate is still above 8 percent. Counted accurately, the unemployment rate is probably between 10 and 11 percent. Include part-time workers who want a full-time and it is close to 20 percent.

Also note that Fed stimulus has goosed the stock market and commodities but done little if anything for the real economy.

Indeed, low interest rates have crucified savers on fixed income, and will punish pension plans the moment equities take a turn for the worse.

Sell the News Event Coming Up?

There is no more good news to be had from more QE, except of course for those holding gold.

And while everyone is pouring over every word the Fed says as if there is any real meaning to the words "many members", should the Fed actually cut rates in September, I would expect the reaction to be a "sell the news" event.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Indiana's Voucher System Doubles, Public Schools Fight Back With Billboard Ad Campaign; Three Sure-Fire Ways To Improve Schools

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 09:29 AM PDT

Indiana has the nation's largest school voucher system and it is about to double in size. In response, Indiana public schools wage unusual ad campaign.

Struggling Indiana public school districts are buying billboard space, airing radio ads and even sending principals door-to-door in an unusual marketing campaign aimed at persuading parents not to move their children to private schools as the nation's largest voucher program doubles in size.

Unlike voucher programs in other states that are limited to poor families and failing school districts, the Indiana subsidies are open to a much broader range of people, including parents with a household income up to nearly $64,000 for a family of four. The median income for an Indiana family of four was just over $67,000 in 2010, making many of the state's nearly 1 million public school students eligible for vouchers.

Last year, the effect of the new vouchers was limited because the law passed just four months before the start of school, and many parents were still unfamiliar with the program. But this year, more than 8,000 students have already applied for vouchers, and there is room for up to 15,000. The number of participants could grow even more next year, when the ceiling on the number of vouchers is eliminated.

Leaders of poor urban schools, which suffered the most defections last year, are especially worried. A district loses $5,300 to $8,400 for each student who leaves.

After 113 of its students departed for private schools last year, the Evansville Vanderburgh district spent $5,700 to erect two billboards and place ads at bus stops to tout the district's theme of "Bringing Learning to Life."

In Fort Wayne, public schools lost 392 students to vouchers last year, the most in the state. That cost the district more than $2.6 million in state aid and led officials to cut 10 art, music and physical education teaching positions at elementary schools.

School staff members have gone to the homes of students who switched to private schools last year or who dropped out and asked them to come back. The district is touting its magnet schools, teaching methods that include Montessori and Reggio and a performing arts and visual arts school.

How To Improve Schools

There are three sure-fire ways to improve schools.

Increase competition
Eliminate public unions
Merit pay

Indiana's voucher system addresses method number one.

If everyone pulls their kids out of public school, number two would happen by force. Unfortunately, that is not a reasonable expectation.

Note the math in Fort Wayne. The district lost 392 students to vouchers at a cost to the district of $2.6 million in state aid. The district responded by cutting 10 positions.

Is the cost of a teacher plus benefits really $260,000?

Regardless, union rules are based on seniority, not merit, and it is impossible to get rid of poor teachers, even sexual predators, if they have been in the system long enough.

Thus, an unfortunate side effect of Indiana's voucher system is the distinct possibility that poor inner-city schools may get stuck with the worst teachers and the worst students whose parents cannot afford the extra cost of private education.

Should that happen, the voucher system might get the blame when the real problem is public unions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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CBO Expects 2013 "Fiscal Cliff" Recession Because of Automatic Spending Cuts and Tax Hikes

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 08:23 AM PDT

Automatic tax hikes and spending cuts will go into effect in 2013 causing a "fiscal cliff" recession according to the CBO.

Massive spending cuts and tax hikes due next year will cause even worse economic damage than previously thought if Washington fails to come up with a solution, Congress' budget referee said on Wednesday.

The Congressional Budget Office said failure to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" of expiring tax cuts and automatic spending reductions would cause U.S. gross domestic product to shrink 0.5 percent in 2013. Previously, the non-partisan CBO forecast full-year GDP growth of 0.5 percent.

The first half of 2013 will be particularly difficult, the CBO said in its mid-year forecast update. Tax hikes and spending cuts will cause GDP to shrink 2.9 percent in the first half, compared with a prediction in May for a 1.9 percent contraction.

There will still be a slight bounceback in the second half of 2013, but it will be weaker, with growth of only 1.9 percent, compared with a previous forecast of 2.3 percent growth.

The main reason for the gloomier outlook is that the fiscal cliff is steeper than CBO previously estimated because of extensions earlier this year of a payroll tax cut and federal unemployment benefits, the CBO said.

It also said the general global and U.S. economic outlooks have dimmed since its last report, another factor weighing on its projections.

I think the US is in recession right now and it's just a matter of when the NBER backdates it. The amusing thing is the CBO is looking for a "solution".

There is no solution. The US is a fiscal train wreck waiting to happen, More government spending is not the solution, it's the problem.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Funny Demotivational Posters - Part 40
Heroic Dad "Rick Van Beek"
The Internet: A Decade Later [Infographic]
Reaction to The Odd Life of Timothy Green [Video]
Worst Job Ever?

Funny Demotivational Posters - Part 40

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 11:41 AM PDT

Another series of demotivational pictures, because pictures are funnier with captions! Have a good laugh and tell me what you think about them in the comments.

There are hundreds of such pictures in our archive of demotivational posters.

Heroic Dad "Rick Van Beek"

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 10:47 AM PDT

Rick van Beek of Byron Center, Michigan, used to be an ordinary guy who wasn't much of an athlete. He wasn't much of an athlete, he drank, he smoked he chewed tobacco. But when Rick's now 13-year-old daughter Maddy, who suffers from cerebral palsy, came into his life he stopped those bad habits and replaced them with some very heroic ones.

Now every year Rick takes his daughter with him on half-marathons and other outdoor races. Together "Team Maddy" has participated in more than 70 triathlons. Maddy herself cannot walk or talk, so Rick pushes Maddy in a buggy, pulls her in a special bike when it comes to cycling and pulls her through the water in a custom-made kayak. One thing Rick knows about Maddy is that she enjoys being outside with the breeze in her hair and in her face.

The Internet: A Decade Later [Infographic]

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 10:35 AM PDT

It's no surprise that the Internet has come a long way in the last decade (2002 – 2012), and this infographic from maylor.net reveals just how much it has grown and evolved. Some of these facts might be staggering but I'm sure won't shock anyone.

Reaction to The Odd Life of Timothy Green [Video]

Posted: 21 Aug 2012 07:24 PM PDT

Spoiler Alert! Somebody told these kids that The Odd Life Of Timothy Green is the "feel good movie of the summer", so they begged their parents to take them.

Now their young lives are ruined and there's nothing their parents, Disney or anybody else can do about it!

Worst Job Ever?

Posted: 21 Aug 2012 07:10 PM PDT

This man has one of the world's worst jobs. He is a sewer diver in Delhi, India. Every day he dives into the filthy drains to manually unclog them. The man works just in his underwear and gets only $5.5 a day plus a bottle of booze. 70 per cent of 'sewer divers' die on the job and 61 persons have died in the last six month alone.