Central Perk: 2 oct. 2014

joi, 2 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bernanke Turned Down For Mortgage Refinance; Questions Abound
Gordon Long Video Interview of Mish: Topic - Financial Repression (and How to Defend Yourself From It)
Tensions Mount in Hong Kong as Protest Enters 5th Day

Bernanke Turned Down For Mortgage Refinance; Questions Abound

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 09:49 PM PDT

In the curious news of the day, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke was turned down in his effort to refinance his mortgage.

Bloomberg reports You Know It's a Tough Market When Ben Bernanke Can't Refinance.

Ben S. Bernanke said the mortgage market is still so tight that he's having a hard time refinancing his own home loan.

The former Federal Reserve chairman, speaking at a conference in Chicago, told moderator Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics Inc. -- "just between the two of us" -- that "I recently tried to refinance my mortgage and I was unsuccessful in doing so."

"The housing area is one area where regulation has not yet got it right," Bernanke said. "I think the tightness of mortgage credit, lending is still probably excessive."

Questions Abound

Given that Bernanke makes $250,000 per speech, why does he even have a mortgage?
How big is it?
What about Bernanke's finances? Is Bernanke living beyond his means?
Is there any chance Bernanke was turned down on purpose as a publicity stunt to highlight a fictitious need for looser mortgage standards?

I cannot quite put my finger on it, but "just between the two of us", something about this story does not seem exactly as presented.

Perhaps I am wrong and Bernanke just firmly believes the dollar is trash and the Fed will inflate his mortgage away.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gordon Long Video Interview of Mish: Topic - Financial Repression (and How to Defend Yourself From It)

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 12:54 PM PDT

I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Gordon Long last week. Gordon is publisher and editor of Gordon T Long Macro Analytics.

The topic was "Financial Repression".

What is financial repression? I defined it as "a set of fiscal and monetary policies for the expressed benefit of the ruling class: politicians, banks, and the already wealthy, at the expense of everyone else."

In the video, I give numerous examples of repression, noting that central bank sponsored inflation is the epitome of financial repression.

We also discuss what to do about financial repression.

The video is about 30 minutes long.

There is one chart in the video that Gordon used to reflect a point I made on inflation. The chart is from Shadowstats, a methodology to which I disagree.

I do believe inflation statistics are a mess but in different ways than Shadowstats. I talked about this recently in my blog Housing Prices, "Real" Interest Rates, and the "Real" CPI.

Also consider GDP, Real GDP, and Shadowstats "Theater of the Absurd" GDP.

Other than that single chart, Gordon did an excellent job of putting together visuals to accompany our video discussion.

Again, it was a pleasure to be on with Gordon. See the link at the top for additional views on financial repression.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tensions Mount in Hong Kong as Protest Enters 5th Day

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 11:59 AM PDT

Protests in Hong Kong entered the 5th day with no sign of letup.

The protest movement followed a controversial decision in which candidates for chief executive of Hong Kong in the 2017 elections be made by a committee, rather that a general election. Election by committee is billed as "election reform".

Protests intensified after police used teargas in an attempt to disperse student protesters. Pro-democracy protesters now number in the hundreds of thousands. The protesters demand a free election and the resignation of Hong Kong's current chief executive CY Leung.

This is the greatest mass protest in China since the Tiananmen Square Protests of 1989.

Beacon of Hope

Bloomberg comments on Hong Kong Autonomy

Hong Kong is an island of free speech and civil liberties in an authoritarian sea. It is not, however, a democracy. Hong Kong citizens have never had the power to choose their top leader, neither as part of China since 1997 nor as an outpost of the British Empire for 156 years before that. Now the prospect of the first direct election of a chief executive in 2017 is increasing the tension between Hong Kong's yearning for autonomy and China's for loyalty.

Tensions Mount

The Financial Times reports Tension Mounts in Hong Kong as Police Mass.

The stand-off between the authorities and demonstrators calling for the resignation of Hong Kong's chief executive CY Leung had continued for a fifth day ahead of the midnight deadline given by demonstrators for Mr Leung to stand down.

The huge protests have been going on since Sunday as crowds flocked to join the democracy movement calling on China to reverse course on a controversial plan for electoral reform in the territory.

On Thursday night students blocked a road to Mr Leung's office as they prepared to escalate their campaign, while the road to the chief executive's office in the Central district was cordoned off at both ends by the police.

Hong Kong Leaders Will Open Talks With Protesters

Bloomberg reports Hong Kong Leaders Will Open Talks With Protesters.

Hong Kong's top official Leung Chun-ying appointed his deputy Carrie Lam to hold talks with leaders of pro-democracy protesters who have crippled parts of the city for the past week.

Chief Secretary Lam will discuss constitutional reform, said Leung, who reiterated he won't resign. Student leaders also urged thousands camped outside government offices to keep calm after they earlier threatened to besiege more buildings if Leung didn't quit by midnight.

The messages from both sides were the most conciliatory since tens of thousands of mostly young people began rallying on the city's streets to demand democracy and Leung's resignation. Student leaders said earlier last night that they would be prepared to speak to Lam, as tensions grew and police warned protesters they would deal firmly with any escalation.

Police Draw the Line at Occupation, Stockpile Teargas in Government Buildings

Messages may be conciliatory, but Hong Kong Police Draw Line on Occupation of Buildings. Police also stockpile teargas in government buildings.

"Some organizers have threatened to escalate their actions by surrounding government buildings," Hui Chun-tak, chief superintendent of the police public relations branch, told reporters today. "Police will not tolerate any illegal surrounding of government buildings. The police urges protesters to remain calm and show restraint."

Around 4 p.m., police were seen carrying boxes and canisters into the government complex, with at least one box labeled as containing tear gas. Student leader Joshua Wong said police appeared to be stockpiling gear, including gas, rubber bullets and pepper spray, in preparation for taking action.

Leung has made three public appearances, including a televised address, since police fired tear gas at protesters on Sept. 28. He arrived by boat near the main protest area yesterday to attend a flag-raising ceremony for China's National Day. He spoke for less than four minutes, urging the community to "work with the government in a peaceful, lawful, rational and pragmatic manner."

Wong, founder of the student activist group Scholarism, told a crowd yesterday that if Ip wants to talk, she should come down to the protest site and address everyone.

Talks with the protesters are impossible if the pre-condition is the resignation of Leung, Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, president of the the city's Legislative Council, said in a press conference today.

In Pictures: Hong Kong's Democracy Standoff

Bloomberg has an interesting 16-image slideshow on Hong Kong's Democracy Standoff

Here are a few of the images.

Demonstrators shine lights from their mobile devices as they hold them aloft during a ongoing protest outside the central government office in Hong Kong, on Oct. 1, 2014.

Demonstrators shine lights from their mobile devices outside the central government office in Hong Kong, on Oct. 1.

Demonstrators shelter under umbrellas during heavy rain storm outside the central government complex, on Sept. 30.

Lightning strikes as demonstrators gather outside the central government complex in Hong Kong, on Sept. 30.

All images by Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Homemade Halloween Costumes By Parents
Welcome To Trash Island
50 Worst Book Covers and Titles Ever Made

Homemade Halloween Costumes By Parents

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 05:47 PM PDT

These parents definitely love their kids and tried really hard to make the best Halloween costumes possible. Unfortunately they didn't turn out so well, but I still think they are better than store bought and have their own charm.

Welcome To Trash Island

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 03:03 PM PDT

Award-winning filmmaker Alison Teal, 27, visited Thilafushi, better known as Trash Island. It's an artificial island created as a municipal landfill situated to the west of Malé. When people think of the Maldives they certainly don't think of shores filled with mountains of trash. But this is the darker side of the Maldives that people rarely see.