Central Perk: 2 apr. 2015

joi, 2 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Thrown Under the Bus: Another Look at the Self-Serving Launch of Ben Bernanke's Blog and the Brookings Institute's Pandering Role
Trade Deficit Shrinks; First Quarter GDP Estimate Ticks Up to 0.1%
Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines

Thrown Under the Bus: Another Look at the Self-Serving Launch of Ben Bernanke's Blog and the Brookings Institute's Pandering Role

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 09:08 PM PDT

Within hours of Ben Bernanke launching his blog at the Brookings Institute I commented Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It.

By that time, a few hundred comments to his blog had already been approved. I made two comments of my own.

I asked Bernanke about Fed-sponsored bubbles, inflation as measured by the CPI while ignoring assets especially in housing (see charts in the above link), and whether or not the Fed had any culpability for that had happened.

I was 99% sure in advance my questions and comments would be deleted. They were twice.

Instead of posting serious comments and questions, the Brookings institute fawned all over Bernanke by posting numerous glowing appraisals, thanks, and other trivia.

Purpose of Bernanke's Blog

The sole purpose of Bernanke's blog, and the Brookings Institute is shamefully willing to go along with it, is to vindicate Ben Bernanke and the Fed from their role in the housing bubble.

Others have chimed in on Bernanke's post and have had their comments and questions deleted as well.

Since the Brookings Institute is willing to degrade itself to such a level, I thought I would post a reply to Bernanke's Blog that I found noteworthy.

Ben Bernanke's Apologia for the Fed

I invite you to read Ben Bernanke's Apologia for the Fed by Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog.

Instead of excerpting Pater's excellent post, I simply ask you to take a look for yourself. Pater makes a mockery of Bernanke's "natural interest rate thesis", of Bernanke's claim that the Fed does not distort markets, of the presumed role of the Fed as a benevolent institution, and of Bernanke's disingenuous comments about "throwing senior citizens under the bus".

I made many similar comments, but Pater also brought into play a critical discussion on time preference and why natural interest rates can never be less than zero.

Pater Tenebrarum was my primary teacher on Austrian economics and the Libertarian philosophy dating back to about 2001. His blog is one of few I bookmark and invariably read.

If you are genuinely interested in the Austrian economic point of view, you may wish to bookmark his blog as well. His feed is also on the right side of my blog.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Trade Deficit Shrinks; First Quarter GDP Estimate Ticks Up to 0.1%

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 10:18 AM PDT

Trade Deficit Shrinks

Inquiring minds are investigating the Commerce Department report on International Trade in Goods and Services for February 2015, for clues about first quarter GDP.

Highlights

Exports were $186.2 billion, down $3.0 billion from January.
Imports were $221.7 billion, down $10.2 billion from January.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $ 2.6 billion, or 3.2 percent, from the same period in 2014.
Year-to-date exports decreased $5.3 billion or 1.4 percent.
Year-to-date imports decreased $7.9 billion or 1.7 percent.

Balance of Trade

GDP Analysis

Recall that exports add to GDP and imports subtract from GDP. Thus my first reaction to the report was that GDP estimates would go up. They did, but very slightly.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model

Yesterday, following an Unexpected Decline in Construction activity, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast dipped to 0.0%.

Today following the shrinkage in the trade deficit, the forecast is back in positive territory at 0.1%.

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.1 percent on April 2, up from 0.0 percent on April 1. Following this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast for the change in real net exports in 2009 dollars increased from -40 billion to -33 billion. The nowcast for real equipment investment growth declined from 7.5 percent to 6.1 percent following the international trade report and the Census Bureau's M3 manufacturing report."

GDPNow Estimate for 1st Quarter

Another Sign of Slowing Global Economy

The declining trade deficit is a good thing. However, the shrinking trade deficit is not as positive as it may look at first glance.

It would have been far better had the trade deficit shrinkage been on rising exports. Instead, imports and exports are both down. That is yet another sign of the slowing global economy.

Back in January, I forecast declining exports on the strength of the US dollar. Here we are. If oil ticks back up for any reason, so will imports.

There is not a lot to cheer about in today's reports (Also see Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 09:21 AM PDT

After six straight months of factory orders unexpectedly declining, economists apparently were finally convinced that bad weather would continue indefinitely.

Factory orders rose, albeit barely, and last month was revised way lower, nonetheless it was amusing to see economists expectations were in the wrong direction for the seventh straight month.

This month, factory orders unexpectedly rose.

Consensus Estimates

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was for no growth, while orders rose a modest 0.2%.

After 6 straight declines, factory orders finally moved to the plus column, up 0.2 percent in a February gain, however, that is tied largely to an upward price swing for petroleum and coal products. Another mitigating factor is a sharp downward revision to January orders, to minus 0.7 percent from minus 0.2 percent.

Durable goods show broad weakness with orders down 1.4 percent in data initially posted last week. Most readings show significant declines and underscore this morning's export dip in the international trade report and the Fed's concerns over weak export markets and the negative effects of the strong dollar. Core capital goods are down 1.1 percent in the month for a 6th straight decline in a reading that points to a lack of business confidence and business investment.

Total shipments bounced back 0.7 percent in February but follow a 2.3 percent plunge in January and which holds down factory contribution to first-quarter GDP. A clear negative is a 3rd straight decline for unfilled orders, down 0.5 percent for what is now the weakest string since way back in the recession days of late 2009. A lack of unfilled orders will not encourage manufacturers to add to their workforces. One positive is inventories which are less heavy, up only 0.1 percent and bringing down the inventory-to-shipments ratio to 1.35 from January's recovery high of 1.36.

The main positive in today's report is the non-durables component where a 1.8 percent gain ends 7 straight declines, declines all tied to oil-price effects. But the weakness in durables, tied to foreign demand, is becoming a significant negative for the economic outlook.

Orders and Shipments

As you can see, that is not much to write home about, especially given that last month was revised from -0.2% to -0.7%

Census Report

Diving into the Census Report, for February vs. January (seasonally adjusted) we find new orders look like this:

All Manufacturing: +0.2%
....Excluding Transportation: +0.8%
....Excluding Defense: +0.4%
....With unfilled orders -2.0%
Durable Goods -1.4%
Nondurable Goods +1.8
Furniture -2.4%
Motor Vehicles , Bodies, Parts -1.2%

The string of declines ended. Hooray! Otherwise, this looks like another bad month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

The Best Memes From The Walking Dead Season 5

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 11:10 AM PDT

Season 5 of "The Walking Dead" may be over but when it comes to memes it's the gift that just keeps on giving.

It's Your Turn: Now Accepting Community Speaker Pitches for MozCon 2015 - Moz Blog

It's Your Turn: Now Accepting Community Speaker Pitches for MozCon 2015

Posted on: Thursday 02 April 2015 — 02:12

Posted by EricaMcGillivray

Yep, it's that time of year, friends. Time to submit your online marketing talk pitch for MozCon 2015. I'm super excited this year as we'll have 6 community speaker slots! That's right—you all are so amazing that we want to see more from you.

The basic details:

To submit, just fill out the form below.
Talks must be about online marketing and are only 15 minutes in length.
Submissions close on Sunday, April 12 at 5pm PDT.
Final decisions are final and will be made in late April.
All presentations must adhere to the MozCon Code of Conduct.
You must attend MozCon in person, July 13-15 in Seattle.

If you are selected, you will get the following:

15 minutes on the MozCon stage to share with our audience, plus 5 minutes of Q&A.
A free ticket to MozCon. (If you already purchased yours, we'll either refund or transfer the ticket to someone else.)
Four nights of lodging covered by us at our partner hotel.
A reimbursement for your travel (flight, train, car, etc.), up to $500 domestic and $750 international.
A free ticket for you to give to anyone you would like and a code for $300 off another ticket.
An invitation for you and your significant other to join us for the speakers' dinner.

We work with you!

Pitching for a community speaker slot can feel intimidating. A lot of times, our ideas feel like an old hat and done a million times before. (When I say "our" here, I mean "mine.")

At MozCon, we work with every single speaker to ensure your presentation is the best it can be. Myself and Matt Roney dedicate ourselves to helping you. Seriously, you get our personal cell phone numbers. Don't get me wrong—you do the heavy lifting and the incredible work. But we set up calls, review sessions, and even take you up on the stage pre-MozCon to ensure that you feel awesome about your talk.

We're happy to help, including:

Calls to discuss and refine your topic.
Assistance honing topic title and description.
Reviews of outlines and drafts (as many as you want!).
Best practices and guidance for slide decks, specifically for our stage.
A comprehensive, step-by-step guide for show flow.
Serving as an audience for practicing your talk.
Reviewing your final deck.
Sunday night pre-MozCon tour of the stage to meet our A/V crew, see your presentation on the screens, and test the clicker.
A dedicated crew to make your A/V outstanding.
Anything else we can do to make you successful.

Most of the above are required as part of the speaker process, so even those of you who don't always ask for help (again, talking about myself here), will be sure to get it. We want you to know that anyone, regardless of experience or level of knowledge, can submit and present a great talk at MozCon. One of our past community speakers Zeph Snapp wrote a great post about his experiences with our process and at the show.

For great proposals:

Make sure to check out the confirmed MozCon 2015 topics from our other speakers so you don't overlap.
Read about what makes a great pitch.
For extra jazz, include links to videos of you doing public speaking and your slide deck work in the optional fields.
Follow the guidelines. Yes, the word counts are limited on purpose. Do not submit links to Google Docs, etc. for more information. Tricky submissions will be disqualified.

While I can't give direct pitch coaching—it would be unfair to others—I'm happy to answer your questions in the comments.

Submissions are reviewed by a selection committee at Moz, so multiple people look at and give their opinions on each pitch. The first run-through looks at pitches without speaker information attached to them in order to give an unbiased look at topics. Around 50% of pitches are weeded out here. The second run-through includes speaker bio information in order to get a more holistic view of the speaker and what your talk might be like in front of 1,400 people.

Everyone who submits a community speaker pitch will be informed either way. If your submission doesn't make it and you're wondering why, we can talk further on email as there's always next year.

Finally, a big thank you to our wonderful community speakers from past MozCons including Stephanie Beadell, Mark Traphagen, Zeph Snapp, Justin Briggs, Darren Shaw, Dana Lookadoo, Fabio Ricotta, Jeff McRitchie, Sha Menz, Mike Arnesen, A. Litsa, and Kelsey Libert, who've all been so amazing.

Still need to confirm you'll join us?

Buy your ticket!

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A to Z of social media: A guide to the success

A to Z of social media: A guide to the success

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 01:00 AM PDT

For most businesses, using social media as a core marketing channel is no longer a choice; either you are there, or you are losing out. The problem is, people think that being on Facebook means they “get” social media for business. This is not the case. We hope to demystify the world of social media in a series of blog posts covering the entire alphabet of social media essentials, starting here, with our A to Z of social media.

A for ADVOCATES: Attracting brand advocates is not as hard as you many think, in many cases small interactions lead to a much stronger relationship. It's worth keeping in mind that engaged users are potentially far more valuable as they can help you build a wider community and harnesses the power of endorsement.

B for BRAND: Everything you publish on social media can, and should become a reflection of your wider brand. Social media should never be 'owned' by a single person, it should reflect a collaborative approach between people from different specialisations who have a unique understanding of a brand's customers, products and issues. Encouraging your team to understand social and take part in the story should be part of any business social media strategy.

C for COMMUNITY: A key reason why social media is powerful is because it opens up a dialogue between brands and customers. It isn't just another one-way channel, it is a space for dialogue and conversation where listening is even more important than talking.

D for DISTRIBUTION: Distribution is an important part of social marketing, especially when you are investing time in creating your own portfolio of content. Having a social media distribution plan can help you draw traffic and enables your content to flow.

E for ENGAGEMENT: Customer engagement and social media is a match made in heaven! Social sites help brands connect, foster and nurture emotional connections with customers all across the world.

F for FREQUENCY: If you want your social feeds to attract attention, you'll need to kick off each day with a selection of new updates. Persue positive results by becoming involved in social storytelling and remember to be consistent with your schedule.

G for GOVERNANCE: Social media blurs the line between personal and professional activities. Whenever possible, it's good to remind your employees of this. Help them to avoid any potential embarrassment, especially when they are trying to induce some humour. Having a governance policy should help them make educated and informed decisions.

H for HUMOUR: When humor fits your brand, it can become a powerful tool for expressing your brand's personality. Matched with some clever imagery and copywriting, it could become a way of making your brand more memorable.

I for INFLUENCERS: The competition for attention on social media is fierce. Engaging your audience's influencers is a tricky but rewarding way to enhance your reputation and following online.

J for JOURNEY: Developing presence on social media takes time. Don't rush your growth, instead be patient and use your time to listen, learn and be reactive; and don't forget: good things come to those who wait.

K for KPIs: Not the most friendly sounding phrase, but when understood, it can become your best friend. Business KPIs such as sales, profits, customer retention and satisfaction are there to help you improve and stay on top of your quest to become the best.

L for LISTENING: One of the most exciting, but challenging things about social media is that it never stops. It evolves with changing trends, users habits and channel updates. That is why reading, studying, and following up on brand mentions is crucial when trying to build a presence.

M for MEASURING: Data is important. It can inspire activities and have a positive impact on your future approach. This knowledge can open your eyes to new opportunities, help you to spot gaps and become more active.

N for NURTURE: Building relationships is an on-going process. Don’t make the common mistake of focussing on numbers only. Instead build your engagement strategy around your existing followers and find effective ways to retain them.

O for OPTIMISE: In busy social media feeds, compelling content brings shares and maximizes organic reach. Brands who lead successful conversations use social feeds to inspire, entertain and amuse, while avoiding temptation to overload their audiences with overly-salesy material. This is why sharability should remain at the back of our minds when curating and creating content for social media.

P for PRACTICE: Don’t just blindly follow everything that everyone else is doing. Instead, put some time towards understanding your audience and industry. Finding your own voice and confidence will only happen if you give it a chance.

Q for QUERIES: Gone are the days when customers relied on only email or phone for queries. With social media, customer service has evolved making communication easier and faster than ever before. Just in case you ever think of customer service as 'dealing with complaints' – a HubSpot study found that consumers are more likely to complement brands than criticise them on social (35% vs 50%).

R for ROI (Return on Investment): think of social media ROI as a way of evaluating your growth and estimating the impact of your efforts. Measuring this can help you improve your tactics and create more effective strategies.

S for STRATEGY: Creating a good strategy takes time. To do it effectively you need to investigate all areas; your business goals, your own channels, the industry. In doing so you will be able to create a plan that is effective and stands the test of time.

T for TIMING: Timing is everything on social media. Some might even say poor timing can ruin the relationship between a brand and its customers, who often expect a response in under an hour. Timing also applies to posting – knowing your timing can help posts get noticed and shared.

U for USER-CENTRED FOCUS: On social media audience comes first. If you want to do your job well you have to take time to understand their needs and expectations. The more you know about them, the more successful your approach will be.

V for VISIBILITY: Reputable social media sites enjoy a prominent position in search engines. You can use this to your advantage, allowing your social media profiles to increase your visibility in search when a user searches for your brand name.

X for eXperience: One of the many benefits of social media is being able to instantly connect with customers and address their needs in real time. As your online reputation depends on it, make sure you deliver a quality experience, which could inspire loyalty and word-of-mouth recommendations.

Y for YOU: There are many different recipes leading to becoming a successful 'social brand'. Whatever route you choose, take into count all of the points above and remember we are here to help you!

I hope reading this post will inspire your next steps. I would love to hear your feedback and find out more about your social media experience. Which of these approaches have been the most successful for you so far?

The post A to Z of social media: A guide to the success appeared first on White.net.