Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Boehner Scraps Fiscal Cliff Plan "B", Futures Plunge; Why the Surprise?
- Euroskepticism on Rise in New EU Members
- France Faces Growing Pension Deficit; French Youth Lose Hope; Politicians in Denial; Bond Market Patience Can't Last
Boehner Scraps Fiscal Cliff Plan "B", Futures Plunge; Why the Surprise? Posted: 20 Dec 2012 06:06 PM PST Lacking Republican support, House speaker John Boehner scraps Fiscal Cliff Plan "B", not that it ever had a chance in the first place. Representative Rob Bishop of Utah says "The odds go up that we go over the fiscal cliff". S&P Futures S&P futures are fluctuating around -20 points or so, but are up 30 points from the initial massive reaction. Boehner Scraps Fiscal Cliff Plan "B" Please consider House Scraps Vote on Boehner's Tax Plan Lacking Support Why the Surprise? Does anyone find the cancellation of the vote a surprise? If so, why? As I have pointed out for days, "Plan B" had no chance of passing the Senate, so it made no difference even if it passed the House. Here is a clip from a post I did on Tuesday titled Boehner Floats Fiscal Cliff "Plan B". Significant Differences Nothing has changed since Tuesday, at any point. Yet, for some reason the market seems surprised by all of this. For the conspiratorial folks, this is a Wall Street staged event to get Congress to do what it wants. Regardless, assuming the futures hold, this may be one of the biggest "bull traps" in history. Nothing would surprise me at the moment, including a "green" open tomorrow morning or a gap down that takes out the low on the overnight futures at 1391, nearly a 60 point plunge from Thursday's close. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Euroskepticism on Rise in New EU Members Posted: 20 Dec 2012 10:51 AM PST The Financial Times reports Newest EU members go cooler on euro. The enthusiasm for the euro is cooling among the EU's newest members in eastern Europe, as Latvia's prime minister warned that his citizens are turning against the single currency.Why any country would consider joining the eurozone now is beyond me. Yet, in spite of the fact that 56% of Polish citizens are against the idea, the Polish government intends to ram this mess down their throats anyway. The Czech president has the right idea, that the ESM is a "monstrous and outrageous thing". Moreover, nannycrat agreements like the ESM are bound to get worse as the Spanish, Italian, and French economies implode. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 20 Dec 2012 01:06 AM PST With sovereign debt yields in most of Europe stabilizing, and the euro on the rise vs. the US dollar there is a growing sense of complacency in the eurozone. Such complacency is not warranted. I sense another storm in Southern Europe and huge problems ahead for the core of Europe, including Germany and France. The focus of this article is France. Young French Losing Hope as Prospects Fade French president Francois Hollande has not delivered on his promise to create jobs so Young French Lose Hope as Prospects Fade. Youth unemployment in France has been high for some time, but it has now climbed to 26 percent. For decades, regardless of their political affiliation, lawmakers have been promising to create a better situation for young people. But exactly the opposite has happened. Labor laws protect those who already enjoy steady jobs, while the economic crisis and recession have limited the number of new jobs created. Meanwhile, housing has become both scarcer and pricier.Such is the folly of Hollande's Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It". If companies cannot fire workers, they will not hire them in the first place. Coupled with foolish tax hikes on businesses and consumers alike, rising unemployment should be expected, and that's exactly what has happened. Businesses are upset, as well they should be, yet the politicians have not gotten the message that they are the problem. Last week, Arnaud Montebourg, the French minister of industrial renewal, threatened steel giant ArcelorMittal, with "temporary nationalization" if Mittal shut down two furnaces, eliminating 630 people. Mittal employs 20,000. Montebourg's inane proposal sent shock waves all the way up to the president's office. French in Denial as Crisis Deepens Spiegel reports French in Denial as Crisis Deepens In the midst of the economic crisis, France's Socialists are denying reality. The minister of industrial renewal is calling for nationalization of some industries, while the president shies away from necessary structural reforms. Business leaders fear the clock has been turned back 30 years.France Faces Growing Pension Deficit On top of a growing unemployment problem, a growing deficit problem, and a bloated public sector France Faces Growing Pension Deficit. France's national pension system is sliding deeper into deficit despite bitterly contested reforms pushed through by Nicolas Sarkozy, former president, adding to the tough economic challenges facing François Hollande's socialist government.Bond Market Patience Can't Last How long the bond market puts up with these problems is unknown, but it will not be forever. Indeed, I doubt bond market complacency with France lasts another year. In the meantime, the odds of France doing something to address these problems is roughly zero percent. If anything, Hollande has shown a marked propensity to send France into reverse. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More |
You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 |