vineri, 3 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


30% Bail-In Haircuts on Greek Deposits Over €8,000 Coming Up; Banks to Raid Deposits to Avert Collapse

Posted: 03 Jul 2015 02:49 PM PDT

30% Bail-In Haircuts Coming Up

I warned countless times over the last six months that Greek citizens need to pull their deposits before it was too late.

Today I report it's too late. 30% bail-in haircuts on Greek bank deposits are coming up.

Banks to Raid Deposits to Avert Collapse

The Financial Times reports Greek Banks Prepare Plan to Raid Deposits to Avert Collapse
Greek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible "bail-in" of depositors amid fears the country is heading for financial collapse, bankers and businesspeople with knowledge of the measures said on Friday.

The plans, which call for a "haircut" of at least 30 per cent on deposits above €8,000, sketch out an increasingly likely scenario for at least one bank, the sources said.

"It [the haircut] would take place in the context of an overall restructuring of the bank sector once Greece is back in a bailout programme," said one person following the issue. "This is not something that is going to happen immediately."

Greece's banks have been closed since Monday, when capital controls were imposed to prevent a bank run following the leftwing Syriza-led government's call for a referendum on a bailout plan it had earlier rejected. Greece's highest court rejected an appeal by two citizens on Friday who had asked for the referendum to be declared unconstitutional.

Depositors can withdraw only €60 a day from bank ATM cash machines, while requests to transfer funds abroad have to be approved by a special finance ministry committee in co-operation with the Greek central bank.

Greek deposits are guaranteed up to €100,000, in line with EU banking directives, but the country's deposit insurance fund amounts to only €3bn, which would not be enough to cover demand in case of a bank collapse.

With few deposits over €100,000 left in the banks after six months of capital flight, "it makes sense for the banks to consider imposing a haircut on small depositors as part of a recapitalisation. . . It could even be flagged as a one-off tax," said one analyst.
It's Too Late

In honor of the bail-in I offer this musical tribute.



Link if video does not play: Carole King - It's Too Late

That was Track 3 from the album, "Tapestry" (1971), one of the best-selling albums of all time.

Why Announcement Now?

The only thing curious is the timing of the announcement. Actually, there was no official announcement. Rather a statement by "bankers and businesspeople" who likely wish to influence the vote to yes.

This news could do it. However, haircuts will come either way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Greek Banks Down to Last €500 Million; Vote for Servitude Takes Slight Lead; IMF Says Greece Needs Another €60 Billion Bailout

Posted: 03 Jul 2015 05:39 AM PDT

Greece Roundup

  • A "yes" vote in favor of servitude has now reached a slight majority according to some Greece referendum polls. How accurate the polls are is an issue.
  • Yanis Varoufakis, Greece's finance minister, said he would resign if Greeks voted Yes in Sunday's referendum on the country's bailout. "I will not sign another extend and pretend agreement", said Varoufakis.
  • Greece to run out of essential food and medicine within days and banks down to last €500 million.
  • Daily allowance of cash from ATMs has dropped from €60 to €50.
  • Three quarters of business leaders think Greece will be forced to leave the eurozone in the next 12 months.

Vote for Servitude Takes Slight Lead

Reuters reports 'Yes' Camp Takes Slim Lead in Greek Bailout Referendum Poll
Supporters of Greece's bailout terms have taken a wafer-thin opinion poll lead over the 'No' vote backed by the leftist government, 48 hours before a referendum that may determine the country's future in the euro zone.

The poll by the respected ALCO institute, published in the Ethnos newspaper on Friday, put the 'Yes' camp on 44.8 percent against 43.4 percent for the 'No' vote. But the lead was well within the pollster's 3.1 percentage point margin of error, with 11.8 percent saying they are still undecided.

Given a volatile public mood and a string of recent election results that ran counter to opinion poll predictions, the result is in effect completely open.

Credit ratings agency Fitch said the banks were already effectively bust and would go to the wall within days unless the European Central Bank increases emergency liquidity assistance to help them cope with a wave of withdrawals.

There has been little time for campaigning but Tsipras is due to address a mass rally of 'No' supporters in Athens' central Syntagma Square outside parliament on Friday evening, while 'Yes' campaigners plan a rally at the old Olympic Stadium.
Greek Banks Down to Last €500 Million

The Telegraph reports Greece to Run Out of Essential Food and Medicine Within Days and Banks Down to Last €500m
Greece is sliding into a full-blown national crisis as the final cash reserves of the banking system evaporate by the hour and swathes of industry start to shut down, precipitating the near disintegration of the ruling coalition.

The daily allowance of cash from many ATMs has already dropped from €60 to €50, purportedly because €20 notes are running out. Large numbers are empty. The financial contagion is spreading fast as petrol stations and small businesses stop accepting credit cards.

Constantine Michalos, head of the Hellenic Chambers of Commerce, said lenders are simply running out of money. "We are reliably informed that the cash reserves of the banks are down to €500m. Anybody who thinks they are going to open again on Tuesday is day-dreaming. The cash would not last an hour," he said.
Dwindling Food and Medical Supplies

Also consider Food and Medicine Shortages for British Tourists in Greece 'Within Days'.
British holidaymakers in Greece will be unable to buy food or medicine within days if a deal is not reached to reopen the banks, the head of a leading business body has warned.

Constantine Michalos, president of Athens Chamber of Commerce, said there could be "shortages on the shelves" by early next week and tourists could be left without "basics".

Mr Michalos warned that shops will begin to close on Friday and not reopen because they are unable to import products due to the bank closures. He said the bank closures had limited the ability of shops to import new stocks because Greece is currently frozen out of a cross-Europe system of money transactions.
IMF Says Greece Needs Another €60 Billion Bailout

Finally, please consider Greece Needs €60bn in New Aid, Says IMF.
Greece needs more than €60bn in new financial help over the next three years and faces decades under a daunting mountain of debt that will make it vulnerable to future crises, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

In a new analysis that lays out Greece's economic dilemma in stark terms, the IMF on Thursday called for Europe to grant the country "comprehensive" debt relief, arguing for the doubling of the maturities on its debts from 20 to 40 years.

The fund's assessment is likely to provide succour to the Syriza-led government which is campaigning for a No vote in a referendum on Sunday. But the IMF also blamed it for the country's deteriorating situation.
What's It All About?

The old bailout agreement is off the table. The creditors pulled it when Tsipras announced a referendum.

Greece has already been bailed out to the tune of €180 billion or so. However, Greece needs yet another €60 billion "bailout".

Total eurozone exposure to Greece, counting Target2 liabilities, may top €250 billion depending on how much cash has been pulled from Greek banks in the past two weeks.

Greece cannot possibly pay back €250-€310 billion, and it won't. Merkel understands this. For political reasons, she cannot say that.

With sentiment in Germany and the other creditor nations against another bailout the only point of a "yes" vote is one of revenge. The creditors will topple Tsipras and likely install another Troika puppet.

That is what the referendum is really about.

A vote either way will not fix a damn thing. A "yes" vote is without a doubt a vote for extend-and-pretend servitude, but a "no" vote without reforms is equally useless.

The question at hand is: Who is the master and who is the slave?

We could have and should have been in this position four or more years ago, with only  €60-€80 billion at risk. Bailing out the bondholders cost that much.

Regardless of the outcome, it appears to me the business leaders are correct. About 75% of them think Greece will be forced to leave the eurozone in the next 12 months unless Russia quickly comes to Greece's aid.

Stranded in Limbo

This all has sort of a surreal nature to me reporting from Iceland where Liz and I are on vacation. Just this morning, Liz overheard a conversation from two Greek citizens speaking in English.

They felt lucky to be able to get on a plane for their vacation, but they are also worried about being stranded here.

 If there is no money for jet fuel or critical services, we could easily see vacationers stranded in Greece. And if Greek airports get shut down, Greek citizens could be stranded abroad.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Creating Demand for Products, Services, and Ideas that Have Little to No Existing Search Volume - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Creating Demand for Products, Services, and Ideas that Have Little to No Existing Search Volume - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

A lot of fantastic websites (and products, services, ideas, etc.) are in something of a pickle: The keywords they would normally think to target get next to no search volume. It can make SEO seem like a lost cause. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand explains why that's not the case, and talks about the one extra step that'll help those organizations create the demand they want.

Creating Demand for Products, Services, or Ideas that Have Little to No Existing Search Volume Whiteboard

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard. Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab!

Video transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat about a particularly challenging problem in the world of SEO, and that is trying to do SEO or trying to do any type of web marketing when your product, service, or idea has no search volume around it. So nobody is already looking for what you offer. It's a new thing, a new concept.

I'll use the example here of a website that I'm very fond of, but which there's virtually no search volume for, called Niice. It's Niice.co.

It's great. I searched for things in here. It brings me back all these wonderful visuals from places like Colossus and lots of design portals. I love this site. I use it all the time for inspiration, for visuals, for stuff that I might write about on blogs, for finding new artists. It's just cool. I love it. I love the discovery aspect of it, and I think it can be really great for finding artists and designers and visuals.

But when I looked at the keyword research -- and granted I didn't go deep into the keyword research, but let's imagine that I did -- I looked for things like: "visual search engine" almost no volume; "search engine for designers" almost no volume; "graphical search engine" almost no volume; "find designer visuals" nada.

So when they look at their keyword research they go, "Man, we don't even have keywords to target here really." SEO almost feels like it's not a channel of opportunity, and I think that's where many, many companies and businesses make mistakes actually, because just because you don't see keyword research around exactly around what you're offering doesn't mean that SEO can't be a great channel. It just means we have to do an extra step of work, and that's what I want to talk about today.

So I think when you encounter this type of challenge -- and granted it might not be the challenge that there's no keyword volume -- it could be a challenge in your business, for your organization, for some ideas or products that you have or are launching that there's just very little, and thus you're struggling to come up with enough volume to create the quantity of leads, or free trials, or customers that you need. This process really can work.

Key questions to start.

1) Who's the target audience?

In Niice's case, that's going to be a lot of designers. It might be people who are creating presentations. It might be those who are searching out designers or artists. It could be people seeking inspiration for all sorts of things. So they're going to figure out who that is.

From there, they can look at the job title, interests, demographics of those people, and then you can do some cool stuff where you can figure out things like, "Oh, you know what? We could do some Facebook ad targeting to those right groups to help boost their interests in our product and potentially, well, create branded search volume down the road, attract direct visitors, build brand awareness for ourselves, and potentially get some traffic to the site directly as well. If we can convert some of that traffic, well, that's fantastic."

In their case, I think Niice is ad-supported right now, so all they really need is the traffic itself. But regardless, this is that same type of process you'd use.

2) What else do they search for?

What is that target audience searching for? Knowledge, products, tools, services, people, brands, whatever it is, if you know who the audience is, you can figure out what they're searching for because they have needs. If they have a job title, if they have interests, if you have those profile features about the audience, you can figure out what else they're going to be searching for, and in this case, knowing what designers are searching for, well, that's probably relatively simplistic. The other parts of their audience might be more complex, but that one is pretty obvious.

From that, we can do content creation. We can do keyword targeting to be in front of those folks when they're doing search by creating content that may not necessarily be exactly selling our tools, but that's the idea of content marketing. We're creating content to target people higher up in the funnel before they need our product.

We can use that, too, for product and feature inspiration in the product itself. So in this case, Niice might consider creating a design pattern library or several, pulling from different places, or hiring someone to come in and build one for them and then featuring that somewhere on the site if you haven't done a search yet and then potentially trying to rank for that in the search engine, which then brings qualified visitors, the types of people who once they got exposed to Niice would be like, "Wow, this is great and it's totally free. I love it."

UX tool list, so list of tools for user experience, people on the design or UI side, maybe Photoshop tutorials, whatever it is that they feel like they're competent and capable of creating and could potentially rank for, well, now you're attracting the right audience to your site before they need your product.

3) Where do they go?

That audience, where are they going on the web? What do they do when they get there? To whom do they listen? Who are their influencers? How can we be visible in those locations? So from that I can get things like influencer targeting and outreach. I can get ad and sponsorship opportunities. I can figure out places to do partnership or guest content or business development.

In Niice's case, that might be things like sponsor or speak at design events. Maybe they could create an awards project for Dribble. So they go to Dribble, they look at what's been featured there, or they go to Colossus, or some of the other sites that they feature, and they find the best work of the week. At the end of the week, they feature the top 10 projects, and then they call out the designers who put them together.

Wow, that's terrific. Now you're getting in front of the audience whose work you're featuring, which is going to, in turn, make them amplify Niice's project and product to an audience who's likely to be in their target audience. It's sort of a win-win. That's also going to help them build links, engagement, shares, and all sorts of signals that potentially will help them with their authority, both topically and domain-wide, which then means they can rank for all the content they create, building up this wonderful engine.

4) What types of content have achieved broad or viral distribution?

I think what we can glean from this is not just inspiration for content and keyword opportunities as we can from many other kinds of content, but also sites to target, in particular sites to target with advertising, sites to target for guest posting or sponsorship, or sites to target for business development or for partnerships, site to target in an ad network, sites to target psychographically or demographically for Facebook if we want to run ads like that, potentially bidding on ads in Google when people search for that website or for that brand name in paid search.

So if you're Niice, you could think about contracting some featured artist to contribute visuals maybe for a topical news project. So something big is happening in the news or in the design community, you contract a few of the artists whose work you have featured or are featuring, or people from the communities whose work you're featuring, and say, "Hey, we might not be able to pay you a lot, but we're going to get in front of a ton of people. We're going to build exposure for you, which is something we already do, FYI, and now you've got some wonderful content that has that potential to mimic that work."

You could think about, and I love this just generally as a content marketing and SEO tactic, if you go find viral content, content that has had wide sharing success across the web from the past, say two, three, four, or five years ago, you have a great opportunity, especially if the initial creator of that content or project hasn't continued on with it, to go say, "Hey, you know what? We can do a version of that. We're going to modernize and update that for current audiences, current tastes, what's currently going on in the market. We're going to go build that, and we have a strong feeling that it's going to be successful because it's succeeded in the past."

That, I think, is a great way to get content ideas from viral content and then to potentially overtake them in the search rankings too. If something from three or five years ago, that was particularly timely then still ranks today, if you produce it, you're almost certainly going to come out on top due to Google's bias for freshness, especially around things that have timely relevance.

5) Should brand advertisement be in our consideration set?

Then last one, I like to ask about brand advertising in these cases, because when there's not search volume yet, a lot of times what you have to do is create awareness. I should change this from advertising to a brand awareness, because really there's organic ways to do it and advertising ways to do it. You can think about, "Well, where are places that we can target where we could build that awareness? Should we invest in press and public relations?" Not press releases. "Then how do we own the market?" So I think one of the keys here is starting with that name or title or keyword phrase that encapsulates what the market will call your product, service or idea.

In the case of Niice, that could be, well, visual search engines. You can imagine the press saying, "Well, visual search engines like Niice have recently blah, blah, blah." Or it could be designer search engines, or it could be graphical search engines, or it could be designer visual engines, whatever it is. You need to find what that thing is going to be and what's going to resonate.

In the case of Nest, that was the smart home. In the case of Oculus, it was virtual reality and virtual reality gaming. In the case of Tesla, it was sort of already established. There's electric cars, but they kind of own that market. If you know what those keywords are, you can own the market before it gets hot, and that's really important because that means that all of the press and PR and awareness that happens around the organic rankings for that particular keyword phrase will all be owned and controlled by you.

When you search for "smart home," Nest is going to dominate those top 10 results. When you search for "virtual reality gaming," Oculus is going to dominate those top 10. It's not necessarily dominate just on their own site, it's dominate all the press and PR articles that are about that, all of the Wikipedia page about it, etc., etc. You become the brand that's synonymous with the keyword or concept. From an SEO perspective, that's a beautiful world to live in.

So, hopefully, for those of you who are struggling around demand for your keywords, for your volume, this process can be something that's really helpful. I look forward to hearing from you in the comments. We'll see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Seth's Blog : "All other difficulties are of minor importance"

"All other difficulties are of minor importance"

The Wright Brothers decided to solve the hardest problem of flight first.

It's so tempting to work on the fun, the urgent or even the controversial parts of a problem. 

There are really good reasons to do the hard part first, though. In addition to not wasting time in meetings about logos, you'll end up getting the rest of your design right if you do the easy parts last.

       

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