Central Perk: 1 mar. 2012

joi, 1 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

President Obama's Lies Regarding U.S. Dependency On Foreign Oil
Huge Problem With Bernanke's 2% Inflation Target Explained in Pictures
Unbelievable Stress of Making "Only" $200,000 After Taxes

President Obama's Lies Regarding U.S. Dependency On Foreign Oil

Posted: 01 Mar 2012 11:13 PM PST

The Los Angeles times notes Obama, chart in hand, presses his case on gas prices

As rising gas prices are putting pressure on politicians to act, President Obama called on Congress to vote quickly to eliminate subsidies for the oil industry, returning to a favorite target the president.

Obama repeated his case, outlined in a speech last week, that there is "no silver bullet" to rising gas prices. He highlighted his administration's effort to reduce dependence on foreign oil and boost development of alternative energy.

This week he introduced a new prop to illustrate his point. As Obama spoke, a chart popped up on television screens behind him. The graph showed U.S. dependence on foreign oil falling since 2005 -- from 60% of net imports to 45% in 2011.

The White House handed out copies to the crowd. Obama told them to take it home -- "it makes for a great conversation piece at parties."

"Now, one reason our dependence on foreign oil is down is because of policies put in place by our administration and my predecessor's administration. And whoever succeeds me will have to keep it up."

Really? No, Not Really?

The Facts show that President Obama is disingenuous at best, and a blatant liar at worst. I lean towards the latter. Reader Tim Wallace provides charts to prove it.

Petroleum Distillates Usage

That looks pretty good, doesn't it? But what the heck does it have to do with reduction in foreign demand, and more importantly, Obama's role (or lack thereof) in achieving those gains.

For the answer to those most pertinent questions, let's display the usage in terms of foreign demand.

Petroleum Distillates Percentage Usage

Chart Explanations

Reader Tim Wallace writes ...

Hello Mish -

I almost went apoplectic today reading on line that the President is now claiming to have cut our dependency on foreign oil, and that the US has imported less each year of his Presidency.

Foreign oil imports have indeed dropped throughout his Presidency, but as the attached charts show, there is a reason for that drop - a tremendous decline in USA usage overall. This is because of a declining economy, NOT because of "alternate sources" or any of the other lies tossed our way by the government.

Of more interest is the fact that although the amount of foreign oil has declined, it has grown as a percentage of our overall supply.

During the Obama Presidency we have become more dependent on foreign oil, not less!

His entire speech was disingenuous at best.

Tim

There you have it. President Obama absolutely did not cut dependency on foreign oil. In fact, foreign oil dependency rose from roughly 37% to 40% under his administration. To be more precise, foreign petroleum usage in his administration went from 37% to a peak of 41% last year, currently at 39.9%.

The only way Obama can take credit for the decline in consumption caused by the recession, is to take credit for the recession itself.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Huge Problem With Bernanke's 2% Inflation Target Explained in Pictures

Posted: 01 Mar 2012 12:22 PM PST

Ben Bernanke wants prices to rise 2%. There are numerous problems with such a proposal, the first being increases in money supply sometimes lead to asset bubbles and not increases in prices of consumer goods.

Indeed the Fed completely ignored (if not encouraged) the housing bubble because home prices are not in the CPI. A housing bubble and a housing crash was the result.

The second major problem with inflation targeting is prices may go up, but wages may not necessarily follow. Indeed they haven't. Let's start with a graph of 2% price inflation over time.

Inflation Targeting at 2% a Year

click on any chart for sharper image

Real Disposable Personal Income

That chart nicely shows a slight parabolic pattern similar to the start of the first chart. However, that growth is a mirage based on population changes. Let's factor out population increases.

Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita

Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita Detail

Income Gap Discussion

That "Income Gap" is not the only problem. One must also consider "skew". As a result of Fed policies, there have been some income gains, but only at the top end.

"Per Capita", by definition, averages out those gains.

In reality, a select few percent have done exceptionally well as a result of Bernanke's tremendously misguided policies. Another few percent have simply done well, and another perhaps slightly larger group have barely kept up.

The bottom 80 percent or so have fallen much further behind than the per capita charts suggest.

Except for the banks, brokers and bondholders, and everyone else bailed out by the Fed, most have been clobbered by Fed policies.

Ironically, many of those bailed out have the unmitigated gall to whine about their plight. Please See Unbelievable Stress of Making "Only" $200,000 After Taxes for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Unbelievable Stress of Making "Only" $200,000 After Taxes

Posted: 29 Feb 2012 11:53 PM PST

People who have nothing to eat, no job, and are about to be tossed out of their homes in foreclosure, really do not know what stress is.

To fully appreciate stress, please consider the sorry "plights" of Andrew Schiff, marketing director for Euro Pacific Capital, Daniel Arbeeny, a Wall Street headhunter, and hedge-fund manager Richard Scheiner.

Bloomberg describes the out-and-out horror stories of all three in Wall Street Bonus Withdrawal Means Trading Aspen for Coupons

Andrew Schiff said the $350,000 he earns, enough to put him in the country's top 1 percent by income, doesn't cover his family's private-school tuition, a Kent, Connecticut, summer rental and the upgrade they would like from their 1,200-square- foot Brooklyn duplex.

"People who don't have money don't understand the stress," said Alan Dlugash, a partner at accounting firm Marks Paneth & Shron LLP in New York who specializes in financial planning for the wealthy. "Could you imagine what it's like to say I got three kids in private school, I have to think about pulling them out? How do you do that?"

Wall Street's cash bonus pool fell by 14 percent last year to $19.7 billion, the lowest since 2008, according to projections by New York state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

"It's a disaster," said Ilana Weinstein, chief executive officer of New York-based search firm IDW Group LLC. "The entire construct of compensation has changed."

Wall Street headhunter Daniel Arbeeny said his "income has gone down tremendously." On a recent Sunday, he drove to Fairway Market in the Red Hook section of Brooklyn to buy discounted salmon for $5.99 a pound.

$17,000 on Dogs

Richard Scheiner, 58, a real-estate investor and hedge-fund manager, said most people on Wall Street don't save.

Scheiner said he spends about $500 a month to park one of his two Audis in a garage and at least $7,500 a year each for memberships at the Trump National Golf Club in Westchester and a gun club in upstate New York. A labradoodle named Zelda and a rescued bichon frise, Duke, cost $17,000 a year, including food, health care, boarding and a daily dog-walker who charges $17 each per outing, he said.

He described a feeling of "malaise" and a "paralysis that does not allow one to believe that generally things are going to get better," listing geopolitical hot spots such as Iran and low interest rates that have been "artificially manipulated" by the Federal Reserve.

Poly Prep

The malaise is shared by Schiff, the New York-based marketing director for Euro Pacific Capital, where his brother is CEO. His family rents the lower duplex of a brownstone in Cobble Hill, where his two children share a room. His 10-year- old daughter is a student at $32,000-a-year Poly Prep Country Day School in Brooklyn. His son, 7, will apply in a few years.

"I can't imagine what I'm going to do," Schiff said. "I'm crammed into 1,200 square feet. I don't have a dishwasher. We do all our dishes by hand."

He wants 1,800 square feet -- "a room for each kid, three bedrooms, maybe four," he said. "Imagine four bedrooms. You have the luxury of a guest room, how crazy is that?"

Summer Rentals

The family rents a three-bedroom summer house in Connecticut and will go there again this year for one month instead of four. Schiff said he brings home less than $200,000 after taxes, health-insurance and 401(k) contributions.

"I wouldn't want to whine," Schiff said. "All I want is the stuff that I always thought, growing up, that successful parents had."

Imagine the Stress

Imagine the stress of renting a three-bedroom summer home for only one month instead of four.
Imagine the stress of only making $350,000 pre-tax
Imagine the stress of making a mere $200,000 after tax and IRA contributions, and having to wash dishes by hand
Imagine the stress of being able to send your kids to the $32,000-a-year for the Poly Prep Country Day School in Brooklyn

Imagine the stress knowing full well that none of the above is enough, yet not being able to whine about it.

"I wouldn't want to whine," Schiff said. "All I want is the stuff that I always thought, growing up, that successful parents had."

This is more than nauseating, so if you need to excuse yourself to take care of matters, please do so now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Get the Facts: Our Dependence on Foreign Oil is Declining

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Get the Facts: Our Dependence on Foreign Oil is Declining

America's dependence on foreign oil has gone down every single year since President Obama took office. In 2010, we imported less than 50 percent of the oil our nation consumed—the first time that's happened in 13 years—and the trend continued in 2011.

We're relying less on imported oil for a number of reasons, not least that production is up here in the United States. In fact, America is producing more oil today than at any time in the last eight years.

Despite all this, Americans are still paying more at the pump when we fill up. That's because drilling for more oil here at home won't affect the price of gas on its own.

So we have to do more than drill now to bring down prices for the future. Relying on the fossil fuels of the last century won't be enough, especially as demand keeps increasing. We need an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy.

This is the strategy President Obama has been pursuing since he took office, but there's still more to be done.

Fact Check: All-of-the-Above Approach to American Energy

Lately, there have been a lot of misleading claims about gas prices. As middle class families are struggling with high prices at the pump, a result of increased global oil prices, politicians have renewed their promises for $2 gas and their misleading claims about who is to blame. Read more.

By the Numbers: $4 Billion

Oil companies receive $4 billion every year in taxpayer-funded subsidies, despite continually bringing in record high profits. Meanwhile, gas prices are on the rise—just like they were this time last year—and the same people funding those subsidies are paying more at the pump for the gas they need to get to school and work.

By the Numbers: 55

Thanks to fuel economy standards established by the Obama Administration, cars and trucks on the road in 2025 will average 55 miles per gallon of gas. These tougher fuel standards will reduce our oil consumption by more than 2 million barrels a day, but we have to do more.

Exploring the New Features in Bing Webmaster Tools

Posted: 29 Feb 2012 02:44 AM PST

Posted by Daniel Butler

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

Bing recently announced some pretty cool new features within their Webmaster Tools, so in this blog post we are going to delve a little deeper to see exactly what these tools are capable of.

The Markup Validator (Beta)

Found within the ‘Crawl’ tab of BWMT, the Beta Markup tool works in a similar way to the Google rich snippets testing tool extracting the following elements from a specified URL:

Microdata
Microformats
RDFa
Schema.org
pen Graph

The inclusion of the open graph is a nice touch, and I can see this coming in handy. Upon submitting a URL, we are presented with a neat extract of any featured markup. Let’s use imdb.org as an example:

However other than extracting elements from a page, there seems to be little actual validation taking place. There are no references to missing elements for example, or whether the mark up could potentially generate a rich snippet.

Let's take a closer look at a URL with incomplete mark up. In the following example an “fn” field is missing for the hproduct element of a page, causing a flag to be raised within Google’s testing tool:

However pasting this same URL within the Bing markup validator just produces the below:

The URL actually being tested here contains hreview-aggregate and extensive use of hreview but there are no references within the Bing Validator, so results are also incomplete.

I really want to like this tool, but I need jam in my Victoria sponge - as this is still in a Beta format, fingers crossed for an update (or perhaps a rename).

Bing Keyword Research Tool

So Bing have finally released their own keyword tool:

Overview of features:

Broad/Exact (select ‘strict’ for exact) match keyword search volumes
6 month data history (you can select any date range within this period)
Export data for a max of 100 keywords at a time
Filter by country and language
History feature to track previous research queries

A very clean and simple to use interface but a shame that the data isn’t yet available via an API as there is going to be quite a bit of heavy lifting if you’re generating a substantial keyword research campaign, but none the less we now have some data to play with from Bing directly.

There are a ton of awesome posts to check out on SEOmoz that go into detail about the keyword research process, so I’m not going to go into great detail here, but with the data available from Bing I would be looking to:

Consolidate data into a single spreadsheet
Obtain current rankings for each keyword in both Bing and Google
Use the Google Adwords API to extract monthly search volume for each keyword
Using Google analytics, marry up keywords and associated traffic
Break down keywords into meaningful categories
Use pivot tables/charts to compile this data for identifying key opportunities (low hanging fruit) in both search engines:
1. Along one axis display separated search volumes for both Google and Bing, also traffic from analytics
2. On the other axis display current ranking position in both Google and Bing
3. Filter this chart by ranking between position 5 and 20.

For illustration purposes here is a quick mock up of how this can be developed:

The numbers along the bottom reflect specific keywords, but for demonstration purposes these have been labelled as numbers.

Although the keyword data from Bing isn’t yet available within an API, Bing has released an API for the rest of the data within Webmaster Tools (looking forward to having a play around with this).

Look forward to hearing about your experiences using Bing’s latest tools.

Whew! That, my friends was my first ever SEOmoz post. Did I get round to introducing myself? I’m Dan, Senior SEO consultant at SEOgadget. I’d love to know what you think and how you’re using the new features in Bing’s toolset. Until the next time!

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Graphic: Our Dependence on Foreign Oil Is Declining

Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, March 1, 2012

Graphic: Our Dependence on Foreign Oil Is Declining

America’s dependence on foreign oil has gone down every single year since President Obama took office. In 2010, we imported less than 50 percent of the oil our nation consumed—the first time that’s happened in 13 years—and the trend continued in 2011.

Despite all this, Americans are still paying more at the pump when we fill up because drilling for more oil here at home won’t affect the price of gas on its own. That's why we need an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy.

Find out more about what the President is doing to develop American energy.