Central Perk: 28 aug. 2013

miercuri, 28 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Tired of Perpetual War? What Can You Do About It?
Mortgages Plunge 42% from Year Ago in Spain, 38th Consecutive Drop; Signs of Recovery? Spain Need Another Bailout?
War of "Non-Intervention"

Tired of Perpetual War? What Can You Do About It?

Posted: 28 Aug 2013 07:32 PM PDT

The warmongers are flooding the airwaves, beating the drums of war, even though UN inspectors have not even had time to investigate whether Syria uses chemical weapons.

The Financial Times is at the head of the list.

Financial Times Case #1

Writer Gideon Rachman says Echoes of the Iraq war are eerie but misleading.

The probable lack of a UN resolution authorising the use of military force in Syria does carry an unfortunate echo of Iraq. Indeed, the UN basis for war in Syria could be even harder to establish than over Iraq. While Messrs Bush and Blair were unable to get a second UN resolution on Iraq – unequivocally establishing the right to use force – they were, at least, able to argue that an earlier UN resolution gave them a legal basis for war. On Syria, partly because of the experience of Iraq, it seems unlikely that the Russians and Chinese will even agree to a weak first resolution.

However, while the international legal context on Syria has echoes of Iraq, the international political context is very different. In 2003, the open split in the western camp was arguably even more disturbing than the lack of a proper UN resolution. The fact that President Jacques Chirac of France and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of Germany stood shoulder-to-shoulder with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in opposition to the war with Iraq will stay long in the memory.

This time, the French, far from leading the opposition to military action, are in the forefront of those calling for the use of force. The Germans also seem to be supportive. Turkey, another important US ally that refused to co-operate on Iraq, is also onside on Syria. Russia, it is true, remains adamantly opposed to military action over Syria. But this time it has no overt supporters in the western camp.

What about the failure to think through the consequences of military action? In some respects, the risks may be even greater with Syria.

But the other big difference between Iraq then and Syria now is more reassuring. It is clear that the scale and ambitions of any military intervention will be far, far smaller this time around. The Iraq war involved a full-scale land invasion, with the express purpose of toppling the regime and then reconstructing the country. In Syria, by contrast, even the most gung-ho interventionists are insistent that they are not contemplating putting "boots on the ground".

Financial Times Case #2

Compromise? Who needs it? Let's just go to war. Financial Times writers Jim Pickard and Elizabeth Rigby say Cameron's volte-face robs Syria vote of purpose.

MPs who rushed back early from their holidays for a historic Commons vote on military action in Syria will instead be engaging in a little more than a grand parliamentary gesture after David Cameron was forced into a last-minute compromise by Labour.

The prime minister started the day with ambitions to put military action against Syria into motion with a decisive vote in the Commons. But he ended it with little more than a "dog's motion" after Ed Miliband threatened to vote down his plans.

The Labour leader had previously signalled that he broadly supported of plans to back the US in a missile strike on Syria after several conversations with the prime minister this week.

But his position shifted after Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, said inspectors in Syria needed more time to gather evidence of the alleged chemical attack in eastern Damascus.

Time? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Time

Time? Who needs time? Who needs approval either?

"Public opinion in Britain is largely sceptical of intervention, with a YouGov poll showing 50 per cent opposed and 25 per cent in favour."

Who cares about that? Obviously not Cameron.

Financial Times Case #3

In US and UK face fight to keep attack plan on track writers James Blitz and John Aglionby in London and Richard McGregor in Washington speak of the need to "keep the war on track".

The US and Britain were battling to keep their plans for a weekend military strike against Syria on track after the UN secretary-general said time was needed to investigate allegations that the regime had used chemical weapons against civilians.

As the White House and Downing Street prepared to unveil evidence setting out how they claim Syrian government forces launched chemical weapons in an attack last week, officials in London said the Security Council had a "responsibility to act" in response to the atrocity.

Mr Cameron earlier tweeted: "We've always said we want the UN Security Council to live up to its responsibilities on Syria. Today they have an opportunity to do that."

To be completely fair, the third article just provides evidence that warmongers want to rush to war as opposed to the writers making a case for war.

Nonetheless, I am quite tired of wars, warmongers, and their ilk, and articles slanted towards making a case for war.

Boehner Sends Letter to Obama Over Syria

In contrast to perpetual war proponent John McCain who hopefully will retire soon, the Wall Street Journal reports House Speaker Boehner Sends Letter to Obama Over Syria demanding an explanation of the mission.

House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) is sending a letter to President Barack Obama criticizing his level of consultation with lawmakers about potential military action against Syria and demanding a clear explanation of any mission in advance of its start.

Separately, 114 House lawmakers—some 97 Republicans and 17 Democrats—have signed a letter calling on Mr. Obama to seek congressional authorization before embarking on military action in Syria.

Together, the letters mark an intensification of pressure on Mr. Obama to consult with Congress about the potential move against Syria for the regime's alleged use of chemical weapons.

Mr. Boehner's letter calls on Mr. Obama to inform Americans and members of Congress of his objectives, policy goals and overarching strategy in Syria before the first missiles are launched, according to a copy reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Boehner also asks Mr. Obama to address the cost of a potential mission and to provide the White House's legal justification for the use of force in Syria, including why administration officials believe none of the military options under consideration require congressional approval.

"[I]t is essential that you provide a clear, unambiguous explanation of how military action . . . will secure U.S. objectives and how it fits into your overall policy," Mr. Boehner wrote.

He called on Mr. Obama to "personally make the case to the American people and Congress for how potential military action will secure American national security interests, preserve America's credibility, deter the future use of chemical weapons, and, critically, be part of our broader policy and strategy."

Perpetual War

Obama should make the case, but he won't. Bush should have made the case and he didn't. Colin Powell looked like a complete idiot in front of the UN as a consequence.

The only people who care about such things are opponents to the party in power. Republicans still support Bush. Democrats still support Obama.

If Mitt Romney won the election and wanted to intervene in Syria (and it is 90% certain he would have), would Boehner have sent the same letter?

Heck, would Boehner have raised an eyebrow if Romney wanted to attack Iran (and it is 90% certain he would have)?

The answers to both questions is "No".

If you have come to the conclusion perpetual war is nearly certain regardless what political party controls the White House, you are likely correct.

Tired of War?

If you are tired of war and needless interventions, please support someone who may actually do something about it. That person is Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, the task is not easy. Warmongers will try and discredit Rand Paul every step of the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mortgages Plunge 42% from Year Ago in Spain, 38th Consecutive Drop; Signs of Recovery? Spain Need Another Bailout?

Posted: 28 Aug 2013 12:42 PM PDT

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy wants you to believe the Spanish economy is improving. One look at housing suggests any improvement is an illusion.

Here are some highlights from a translation of the La Vanguardia article Mortgages plummet 42.2% in June

The number of mortgages for home purchase in June fell 42.2% compared to June of 2012
Mortgages declined every month for 38 months. June signed just 14,053 home mortgages, the lowest monthly figure of the last ten years.
The six-month total from January to June 2013 was 115,895 signed mortgages. That is less than the one-month total for May of 2007 which had 118,669 signed mortgages.
The average value of mortgages dropped, down 9% from a year ago to 97,495 euros.
This was the worst half-year since the data series for this indicator began, in 2003.

Signs of Recovery

The Telegraph says More pain in Spain but signs of recovery.

The latest government figures show that in June Spain's exports surged 10.5pc from a year earlier, a boom that nearly wiped out the nation's trade deficit. Spain's trade deficit was €106m in June, a steep drop from the €2.7bn deficit registered a year earlier and a figure heralded by the conservative government of Mariano Rajoy as a long period of recession was finally coming to a close.

Last month Spain's national statistics agency reported that GDP had decreased by only 0.1pc in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the first, which saw a bigger decline of 0.5pc. That and a drop in unemployment figures, largely considered to be a result of seasonal hiring in the tourism industry, are the first signs of the "light at the end of the tunnel" that the government has been promising since initiating a series of deeply unpopular austerity measures.

Ministers and officials have been keen to hammer home the message that the worst of the crisis has passed. "Our economy has turned the corner and we are at the start of a change in trends which will allow us, with effort, to create jobs again. The foundations have been laid," Rajoy said at an event in July, shortly before leaving Madrid for his summer holidays. Luis de Guindos, Spain's Economic Minister meanwhile was quick to point out that "the recession has come to an end".

Foundations? What Foundations?

I would like to ask Rajoy "precisely what foundations have been laid?"

Is the banking crisis over?
Is Spain out of the Eurozone?
Was there pension reform?
Work rule reform?
Have banks written off all bad property loans?
Are Spanish banks recapitalized.

The answer to each of those question is "No".

Spain Need Another Bailout?

Here is a bonus question "Does Spain need another bailout?"

The answer to that question is "yes".

The Telegraph continues ...

"It's no secret that domestic demand remains very weak because spending is massively impaired by unemployment and austerity," Gilles Moec, analyst at Deutsche Bank, said in a recent report. "Whenever the economy starts breathing, you'll have additional pressure to start cutting the deficit, so we get in to additional austerity and spending will fall. It's going to be a choppy ride."

But perhaps the biggest single factor hampering Spain's recovery is the crippling unemployment which, at almost 27pc, is more than twice the European average. Almost 6m out of 47m Spaniards are without a job – or a quarter of the workforce – and many labour market economists believe that those numbers are unlikely to change dramatically even once Spain returns to growth.

The average Joe on the Street knows Rajoy is a liar.

Spaniards on the street scoff at proclamations of an end to the crisis. "Until the time comes when I don't need to worry how I am going to pay my mortgage and feed my family, then I won't believe what this government says about the crisis being over," said Mercedes Rivas, a 39-year-old supermarket worker from Madrid. She is the sole bread winner in a family of five, after her husband lost his job in construction four years ago, and earns just €800 a month.

End of Recession? When?

Spain's Economic Minister says "the recession has come to an end".

The IMF does not think Spain will return to growth until 2015, and even then only 0.3%. And the IMF has been overly-optimistic every step of the way. Nonetheless, let's assume the IMF finally has things correct and Spain grows 0.3% in 2015.

Is that a "recovery" or stagnation at the bottom with a 25% unemployment rate on top of it all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

War of "Non-Intervention"

Posted: 28 Aug 2013 11:17 AM PDT

The ludicrous headline of the month goes to Financial Times writer Richard McGregor who claims Barack Obama marshals his forces for war of non-intervention in Syria.

All official US statements, be they on the record or in behind-the-scenes briefings, are peppered with words such as "limited", "surgical", and "intermediate", to emphasise how any action will be quarantined to a few days.

The US-led attack on Syria, in other words, is not about intervening in the civil conflict. It is about not intervening.

The ghosts of Iraq still hover over every decision to go to war, no matter how limited and quarantined the US may want such action to be.

Congress is so wary of having its fingerprints on the issue that its leaders seem more than happy not to have to vote on a Syrian attack. In the House of Representatives, John Boehner, the Republican Speaker, and Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, have asked only for consultation.

Perennial hawks such as John McCain in the Senate have long pressed for a more interventionist US role in Syria. "If this isn't aimed at regime change, then what is it aimed at?" he said with visible frustration on Wednesday.

The US is readying the release of its evidence of the Assad's regime's complicity, probably on Thursday, in what Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called "the US intelligence community's most important single document in a decade".

Memories of Colin Powell's now discredited presentation to the UN before the Iraq invasion on Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction remain raw in the US system, no more so than in the intelligence community.

As Mr Cordesman says, the US has lost its credibility to assert that Mr Assad ordered the use of the chemical weapons and it will be difficult to regain it with a document that is necessarily constrained about revealing its sources.

"The US government may trust the US government," he says. "That is not a trust the world shares, and recent polls indicate that it may not be a trust American people share as well."

Ridiculous Thesis

You can either have a war or not have a war. You can intervene or not intervene. You cannot, in any way, have a war of non-intervention. War is intervention.

The entire article sounds like something from George Orwell's '1984'.

If by some chance you have not read the book, please do. And if you have, consider reading it again.

Huffington Post notes George Orwell's '1984' Book Sales Skyrocket In Wake Of NSA Surveillance Scandal.

Good Riddance to McCain

If anyone should know how stupid wars are it it should be John McCain. He sat as a prisoner of war in Vietnam for six years in one of the stupidest wars in history. And he wants more wars in spite of the fact that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan solved nothing, and if anything increased the number of US enemies.

I wait for the day McCain retires.

Important Documents?

Anthony Cordesman certainly misses the mark calling a document on chemical usage "US intelligence community's most important single document in a decade".

If we are not going to war, then precisely what use is the document, even if it is true?

Trust Us

I do give Cordesman credit for the general idea I paraphrase as follows: "The US government may trust the US government but the American people sure don't".

Of course it was Obama who stated "Trust Us" to which Reason.Com responds ... "Somebody needs to tell the president that it's not that a lack of trust in government leads to some problems, it's that a litany of problems involving the use and abuse of government's coercive power have eroded any basis for trust."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

28 Great Offices Around the World

Posted: 28 Aug 2013 11:15 AM PDT

Google Office in Zurich.

Indoor ski lift at the office.

Selgas Cano Architecture in Spain.

Kennedy in Portland.

Bahnhof in Sweden.

Pallotta Teamworks in Los Angeles.

Inventionland in Pittsburgh.

Pirate ship

TBWA Hakuhodo in Japan.

Pixar in Emeryville, California.

BBC North in the U.K.

DreamHost in Los Angeles.

Google in Pittsburgh.

Co-Merge in San Diego.

Google Office in Tel Aviv.

Red Bull in Austria.

LEGO in Denmark.

GPT Group in Australia.

Saatchi & Saatchi in Thailand.

Google in Russia.

DTAC in Bangkok.

Three Rings in San Francisco.

Macquarie Group in Australia.

Colorful round couch at the office.

KBP West in San Francisco.

Sid Lee in Montreal.

Ogilvy & Mather in China.

Google in Zurich.

5 Lessons Learned from 100,000 Usability Studies

Posted: 27 Aug 2013 04:18 PM PDT

Posted by Phil Sharp

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc.

It happens all the time.

People get confused, frustrated, and angry while using websites. They sigh, they groan, and sometimes they even shout. I see it happen with my own eyes each and every day.

Over the years at UserTesting.com weâ€™ve literally watched hundreds of thousands of usability studies, which gives us a unique perspective into some of the most common issues that impact users. Iâ€™d like to share five of those insights with you.

1) Avoid multi-level navs

The person in the video below is struggling to move her mouse through multiple levels of navigation. Just when she thinks she's made it to the item she's looking for, the entire navigation disappears. We see this every day on many different sites and it always frustrates the users.

This person is having a hard time using the site's navigation.

A fix to consider

One possible alternative to this type of navigation is to take an approach similar to Amazon.com, and have an entire section pop out.

On Amazon.com, the entire section pops out.

This approach makes life much easier for your visitors. Not only does it remove the need for them to delicately maneuver their mouses, but it also lets them see all of their options at once. Plus, it gives you the freedom to add images and other styling to your nav.

For other possible solutions, and a more in-depth look into creating easy-to-use navigation, check out these resources:

2) Your categories might be confusing users

As the video below illustrates, the way we categorize things on our websites might be confusing our visitors. In fact, it's one of the most common things we see in all of our user tests.

A person looking for a small vacuum for under $50.

In this particular study, it took our participant 48 seconds to find the category for a small vacuum. She started her search by looking in "electronics," then browsed for something called "household," and finally made her way over to "Home & Garden."

At this point you're likely thinking one of two things:

Either, "Silly person, it's obvious that a vacuum would be in the 'Home & Garden' section."
Or, "Silly designer, it's obvious that 'Home & Garden' is a confusing category."

That's why I need to introduce you to the "Matt-Damon-and-Good-Will-Hunting-Can-Do-No-Wrong" principle.

The principle is simple: it's not your fault. (Side note: if you don't understand this reference, then do yourself a favor and watch this video.)

It's not your fault. It's not the user's fault. It's not the designer's fault. In fact, it's nobody's fault. What's crystal clear to you might be confusing to me, and no one is to blame for that. It's just something we have to work with.

So, what do we do about it?

One of the best ways to test out your site categorization is to sit someone down in front of your site and ask them to find a specific item without using internal search. This is simple, fast, powerful, and very painful to watch.

You're bound to see people struggle to find things that seem obvious to you. When this happens, remember the "Matt-Damon-and-Good-Will-Hunting-Can-Do-No-Wrong" principle, make some changes to your categories, and then test again.

Another way to improve your categories is to use a tool like OptimalSort or TreeJack. OptimalSort is an online card sorting tool that makes it easy to find out how people think your content should be organized. Then, once you think you have everything organized nicely, TreeJack helps you prove that this site structure will work.

3) Internal search is crucial (and frustrating)

There's a good chance that 10% of your site visitors are using your internal search. When they search for your most popular items, do you know what the results look like?

From all our studies, we've found four common types of problems with internal search:

Search results that don't account for typos, plurals, hyphenations, or other variants
A search box that isn't long enough
Search results that simply don't make any sense
Search results that aren't sorted by priority

To see an example of #4 in action, let's watch yet another person looking for a vacuum:

When results aren't sorted by relevance, people are bound to see some weird things.

Because the search results are automatically sorted by "Most Popular," the first results are for replacement batteries and filtration paper bags! Yikes! Or, as my 10th-grade Spanish teacher would say, "que barbaridad!"

If you do only one thing

If you do only one thing, look at your internal search logs and find the top 10-20 keywords that people are searching for on your site. Search for each of these items yourself to see if you're happy with the results.

Then, search for your company's 10 most important products. How do those results look?

Lastly, look for some generic, non-product terms. For example, if you're an e-commerce store, search for "returns," "contact," and "hours." Looking good?

If you can perfect these searches, and change your search results to automatically sort by relevance, you're most of the way there!

4) Links should look like links

As obvious as it sounds, there are many times when links actually don't look like links. And, as you probably guessed, this means users don't know they can click on them.

In the video below, this person is requesting a link to the "basic uploader" without realizing that "basic uploader" is already a link:

"Okay, that's frustrating. It would make more sense to me that you'd have a link that I could just click on."

What does a link look like?

This won't come as a big surprise, but to make your visitors happy, links should be colored and underlined. And, ideally, there should be different colors for links that have been visited and unvisited.

For more info on the topic, check out this great article from the Nielsen Norman Group, or this post from Moz.

5) Engage your visitors (in other words, don't be boring)

Sometimes websites are perfectly usable â€" they have great navigation, clear categories, helpful internal search, and links that look links â€" but they suffer from a major problem: They're boring.

Or, put a nicer way, they're not engaging their visitors. People use the site, and they could easily buy something if they wanted, but they don't feel a connection to the brand or the product. Frankly, they just don't care.

In the video below, a person is trying out a mobile app for the first time ever. Listen to the deep sigh she makes and the tone of her voice:

The sound of boredom.

That's the benefit of watching someone use your website, app or product. You can hear their tone of voice and pick up on things like boredom that you'd miss if you were just looking at standard analytics data.

It's tempting to always get wrapped up in analytics or usability, but don't lose sight of engaging your visitors and building your brand.

Tunnel vision

These are only five of the issues that we see pop up often, but really there are countless ways that our websites can be turning off our visitors.

Thanks to the amount of time we spend on our own sites, we're blind to many of the issues that are confusing or frustrating our users. We have tunnel vision.

This is what we look like. Unfortunately, most of us aren't this adorable.

That's why it's so important for us to get our sites in front of real people with fresh eyes who can give us unbiased feedback. While this feedback is probably going to be painful to hear, it's going to help us all improve our sites and make the web a better place.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

President Obama Speaks at the Let Freedom Ring Ceremony

Featured

President Obama Speaks at the Let Freedom Ring Ceremony

Today, President Obama will be joined by President Jimmy Carter and President Bill Clinton, members of the King family and other civil rights leaders and luminaries to honor the 50th Anniversary of the March on Washington and Dr. King's iconic "I Have a Dream" speech. You can watch starting at 11:30 a.m. ET, and President Obama will deliver remarks at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Click here to watch the event.