Central Perk: 27 oct. 2012

sâmbătă, 27 octombrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Australian Banksia Securities Assets Frozen As Mortgage Lending Scheme Blows Sky High; Six Canadian Banks on Moody's Review for Downgrade

Posted: 27 Oct 2012 12:59 PM PDT

Every day I get emails and links from all over the world. I wish I had time to comment on all of them. Here are a pair of stories regarding Canada and Australia.

The Financial Post reports Six Canadian banks on review for Moody's downgrade

Debt rating heavyweight Moody's Investors Service served notice on six of Canada's biggest banks that it may cut their rating by as much as two notches because of concern over high consumer debt levels and soaring housing prices.

The downgrade warning covers Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Caisse Centrale Desjardins and National Bank of Canada.

Moody's said it will also consider the removal of government support from the ratings of some of the subordinate debt issued by the institutions, a move that would have significant negative implications on the country's major lenders which have traditionally enjoyed an implicit promise of a bailout by the state if ever they got into serious trouble.

"Today's review of the Canadian banks reflects our concerns about high consumer debt levels and elevated housing prices which leave Canadian banks more vulnerable to increased risks to the Canadian economy, and for some banks a sizeable exposure to volatile capital markets businesses is of concern," Moody's analyst David Beattie said in a statement.

The move comes about four months after Moody's downgrade Royal Bank of Canada, the country's biggest bank by assets, by two notches because of its exposure to increasingly volatile global capital markets. At the same time the rating agency also cut the ratings of 14 other large banks mostly based in Europe and the U.S.

Moody's noted that consumer indebtedness has been rising steeply for the last several years, with the ratio of household debt to income recently hitting a record 163%, up from 137% in 2007, a reflection of what it called growth in debt outpacing growth in income.

Meanwhile, the rating agency is calling for economic growth of just 2% to 3% for this year and next year respectively, at the same time that external risks arising from the crisis in Europe and the struggling U.S. economy continue to rise.

Moody's Late To The Party

As is typically the case, Moody's is way late to the party. It is also overoptimistic about Canadian growth prospects.

The big three rating agencies and the IMF all fail to understand the global forces at play.

Australian Banksia Securities Assets Frozen

In Australia, the collapse of "non-bank" Banksia Securities has affected thousands of ~~investors~~ fools who put $660 million in a guaranteed to blowup mortgage-lending scheme that chased high yields.

How did Banksia Securities offer above market returns? The answer is risky mortgages and commercial property loans now going bust.

Please consider Rural savings threatened after collapse

Thousands of farmers and other regional Victorians face a nervous wait after the collapse last night of the financing group Banksia Securities, which has put at risk $660 million in savings.

As a non-bank lender, Banksia offers investors high interest on debentures and then lends these funds out as mortgages or commercial property loans.

Given Banksia does not hold a banking licence, the funds in the debentures are not backed by a deposit guarantee.

Debenture firms often target retirees as investors, generating new business through promises of high-interest returns backed by property.

McGrathNicol last night froze the $660 million in investments and stopped all interest payments as it began an urgent review of the company's accounts.

The attempt to claw back funds could cause a credit crunch among some property developers that relied on Banksia for loans.

Opposition Finance spokesman Robin Scott said Labor was worried about the damage Banksia's collapse may do on regional communities, particularly on jobs and development.

Mr Scott said while it was too early to know the full impact he hoped the state government would look at ways of to help those most affected.

Questions of the Day

This is yet another disastrous borrow-short, lend-long scheme blown sky high. The New Australian blog asked Is this Australia's Northern Rock moment?

I have a question of my own: Why should the government help anyone affected by this?

Those stupid enough to have money in Banksia given the precarious state of Australian real estate deserve to lose it.

The same holds true for developers. Any developer stupid enough to depend on Banksia for credit should now pay the price.

Credit Crunch On the Way

If developers are cut off, the result would be a genuine credit crunch as opposed to a lack of demand for money.

For a comparison to the proclaimed credit crunch in Europe, please see Credit Crunch in Europe; Eurozone Lending Sinking Fast; Money Supply Contracts

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

New Definition of "Sustainable" is Six Months; New Word Needed to Replace "Haircut"

Posted: 27 Oct 2012 10:32 AM PDT

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has changed the meaning of the word sustainable to "six months".

While "sustainable" never had a definitive time-frame, when it comes to economic recoveries I am quite certain the term has never before been used to mean anything as short as "six months".

For a look at revised definitions, please consider German finance minister rules out Greek debt "haircut"

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out public investors accepting a debt restructuring, or "haircut", on their Greek bonds but said in an interview to be aired on Sunday that a debt repurchasing program could be considered.

"(A haircut) is a discussion that has little to do with the reality in the member states of the euro zone," Schaeuble said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio.

Schaeuble said sovereign states could legally not write off billions of euros of losses on their official holdings of Greek government bonds.

Schaeuble reiterated no agreement had been made on how to help Greece implement austerity cuts after Stournaras said international lenders had given Athens more time and a package of austerity measures would be put to parliament next week.

Any agreement with near-bankrupt Greece would have to be sustainable - last longer than six months - and be trusted by financial markets.

A debt repurchasing program, in which Greece would get new loans in order to pay back old debt, could be an option, Schaeuble said.

"That is a consideration that one can make seriously. It has been put up for discussion by some members of the central bank board."

Definition of Haircut

While investigating definitions, let's also take a look at the meaning of "haircut" since there supposedly will not be one.

In the financial world, the word "haircut" typically means a reduction in the value of bonds held as collateral. As we have seen, haircuts can be voluntary or involuntary. However, and as we have also seen, the definition of "voluntary" has been stretched beyond reasonable imagination.

Whether voluntary or not, giving Greece more time to pay back loans would be a form of a haircut.

Giving Greece money to pay back existing loans then reissuing the debt on more favorable terms to Greece would certainly be a haircut from any reasonable point of view.

Both options are under serious discussion, but let's not dare call them "haircuts". Let's instead call the process a "manicure".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekly Address: Protecting the American People with New Wall Street Reforms

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Weekly Address: Protecting the American People with New Wall Street Reforms

In this week’s address, President Obama highlights the work of the new independent consumer watchdog he fought to create. This agency’s mission is to stand up for consumers and includes protecting every American from mistakes made by the companies who determine their credit scores

Watch President Obama's weekly address.

In Case You Missed It

Here’s a quick glimpse at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov:

Hurricane Sandy: The Hurricane is currently moving away from the Bahamas and toward the East Coast of the United States. Forecasters with the National Weather Center are tracking the path of the storm, while FEMA offices from Atlanta to Boston are readying for a potential impact. The President spoke on the phone with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, Dr. Rick Knabb, Director of the Hurricane Center, John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism about the ongoing preparations.

FEMA is currently advising residents in the path of Sandy (which includes those on much of the East Coast) to prepare for tropical storm and hurricane conditions. Read these set of basic safety tips, and visit www.ready.gov/hurricanes.

U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement: U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk and Panamanian Minister of Commerce and Industry Ricardo Quijano signed a letter of exchange setting a date for the entry-into-force of the U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement. Starting October 31, Panama will eliminate tariffs on more than 86 percent of U.S. industrial and consumer goods. Learn more about the trade promotion agreement, and see what key stakeholders are saying this will mean for the United States’ economy.

Breast Cancer Awareness Month: On Wednesday afternoon, Dr. Jill Biden and Secretary Kathleen Sebelius hosted three breast cancer survivors at the Naval Observatory for a Breast Cancer Awareness Month conference call. They reminded advocates around the country about the importance of early detection and prevention. Read more about the call, and learn about the survivors here.

On Wednesday evening, the Vice President and Dr. Jill Biden hosted a reception at the Naval Observatory commemorating Breast Cancer Awareness Month for survivors, advocates, and women’s health groups. Vice President Biden said that he and Dr. Biden have long been committed to the cause of raising awareness for breast cancer, and he thanked the survivors attending the event for their courage—giving other women with breast cancer hope.

United Nations Day: Wednesday marked the 67th anniversary of the United Nations. In a Presidential Proclamation, President Obama reflected on the progress the international community has made since the creation of the United Nations:

Through the better part of a century, we have seen what is possible when a strong and united international community takes action to advance the interests and values we share. The founding values of the United Nations remind us that countries can resolve their differences peacefully, and that all people deserve the chance to seek their own destiny, free from fear and empowered with their most fundamental rights. As we recognize this 67th anniversary of the United Nations, let us recommit to carrying that vision forward in the years ahead.

Read the full proclamation here.

White House Hosts Visiting Young African Leaders: Earlier this week, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for African Affairs Grant Harris met with a group of twenty-seven young African leaders at the White House, continuing the Administration’s engagement with Africa’s next generation of leaders. Senior Director Harris led a discussion on the U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, and the goals of the President’s Young African Leaders Initiative. Learn more about the visit, and the U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa here.

National Christmas Tree: We know it’s still October, but the nation’s capital is already getting ready for the holidays. This week, the lottery for tickets to see the lighting of the National Christmas Tree is officially open. To sign up for your chance, visit Recreation.gov.

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The REAL Benefits of Guest Blogging

Posted: 26 Oct 2012 06:03 AM PDT

Posted by moosahemani

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

Guest blogging is riding high right now and the whole Internet Marketing sphere is buzzing with talk about it. Some people consider guest blogging to be one of the more powerful of available tactics, while others disparage this viewpoint, saying that guest blogging is highly misunderstood and that people are misusing it.

In my honest opinion, both mindsets are correct. I recently did a cartoon post on my blog discussing (in a humorous style) how guest blogging is powerful and how it is misused by many who have failed to understand the scope of awesomeness in this practice we call guest blogging.

Guest Blogging Cartoon

Guest blogging is, indeed, one of the powerful ways of building strong, high-quality relationships that may help you in multiple ways, including developing business opportunities and professional connections, setting brand value and, of course, acquisition of link juice.

But, there are many people in the industry who aren't grasping the real worth of guest blogging. They tend to view guest blogging as just another link building tactic. Because of this, they continue to build low quality content for submission to blogs that accept guest posting. Sadly, I estimate that one out of ten blogs actually publishes this junk, polluting the web with garbage.

Discussion about guest blogging as a relationship development tool vs. guest blogging as yet another vehicle for mere linkbuilding is all over the web. What makes this post different from others is that I will provide case studies and success stories to back my opinion of the real potentials of this practice.

Let’s cut the theory part and talk about the real figures! Properly executed, guest blogging can help you:

Build Relationships

So many blogs state this, but I remember when I wrote my first ever guest post. Very few people tweeted it and I wasn’t able to make any good connections out of it. I was a newbie, and didn't play my part well.

There is another common industry phrase that states, ‘Building relationships takes time’. If I merge these two phrases, it reads something like this.

Guest blogging helps you build relationships, and as it takes time, you should be consistent in your activities.

Let's hear what blogging and SEO expert, Kristi Hines, has to say about building relationships through guest blogging:

Words from Kristi Hines:

"I've built great blogging relationships through guest posting on other blogs as well as inviting others to guest post on my own. The strongest relationships you will build with other blogs are the ones on sites where you contribute regularly vs. submitting one-off posts."

Submitting a single guest post isn't enough. If you intend to forge a relationship, then your job doesn’t end with submitting your post. Plan to interact with the audience (usually through the comments) and follow up with the blog owner or editor to see how your guest post did. This will prove that you aren't just another link builder; you actually care about the community. Who knows? This might open their doors for you to a future of more guest posting opportunities and even partnerships in other areas.

Social Media Examiner is one example from my own guest blogging experience of building relationships through guest blogging. They treat all of their writers as a part of their team. They organize meet-ups at blogging conferences like New Media Expo (formerly BlogWorld), they include you in their roundup posts when your expertise matches the roundup topic, and they always offer to help you in any way they can. I've met a lot of great people through their community and even gained some clients for my freelance writing business, which is always a plus.

Become An Expert

Guest blogging can act as your doorway to gaining status as an expert in your field. The more in-depth, well-researched posts you publish on authoritative blogs, the more chances you will get to communicate and interact with people. Over time, you can become an authority in eyes of your target audience.

That's advice you'll read everywhere, but let's gain deeper insight from the words of guest blogging queen, Ann Smarty, about her journey towards the respect she has earned in the industry:

Words from Ann Smarty

"It somehow happened without me trying too much. I started blogging and was invited to guest post at Search Engine Journal. I didn't even know what a guest post was and was too humble to even include an "About author" page. Then guest posting invites kept coming. I saw traffic and more people recognizing me as an expert. I saw the benefit! So I started guest blogging actively. Then the idea of MyBlogGuest was born and my name became associated with "guest blogging" because of it. I started to guest post even more promoting MyBlogGuest. It was promoted 100% with my guest posts: no paid reviews, no ads, just "free" guest posts. And it started growing! I guess that's the best evidence of the benefits of guest blogging."

Discover Business Opportunities

This is the most delicious bite in the whole meal. Yes! With proper implementation, guest blogging surfaces new business opportunities. Don't laugh. I know it works. Rather than quoting an expert here, I'll share my own personal experience.

My last post on SEOmoz was about writing an email in a way that gets a better rate of response and it went very well. I danced twice; once when my post got promoted to the main blog and again when I received this message in my SEOmoz private message box:

Guest Post for business growth

While I can't reveal all the details of this message, I think it proves my point. In fact, I have received several emails like this after guest blogging elsewhere.

If you've tried guest posting without achieving this kind of success, keep the following tips in mind:

When attempting to attract business, nothing matters more than the quality of your offering. Your submission must accurately showcase your level of expertise in your field.

If you want to see traffic flowing towards your website from your efforts, you must produce the best post ever (I really mean this) on your topic and submit it to a high quality blog. Be sure your website is ready to welcome the new traffic. Make sure it's as awesome as your guest post!

Capture A Wider Audience

It's generally accepted that the more targeted traffic your website captures, the greater the chance of a high conversion rate.

The formula for a blogger is pretty much the same, but the question becomes one of how to reach that target audience. Again, enter guest blogging!

Guest Post Traffic

Thanks to SEOmoz for coming up with this post analytics feature on their blog. I am again highlighting a previous guest posts on SEOmoz and showing you my stats.

Around 3,016 people actually visited my post’s page and average time of their stay on the page is around 4 minutes and 20 seconds (enough time to read and comment on the post).

I am sure that if I had published my post on my own blog, I would not have gotten the same amount of traffic. My limited audience and smaller circle of influence cannot compare to that of SEOmoz (obviously). Through guest blogging, I had the chance capture a wider audience and make an impression on new people.

Moreover, a good guest post can win more blog and Twitter followers. I've noticed how my followers have quickly increased whenever I've had a post published on one of the major SEO blogs.

Retaining these followers is a completely different story, but as far as the increase in followers is concerned, I consider this one of the best gifts guest blogging offers.

...And Get The Link!

Let's not forget linkbuilding. The highest quality links will come from submitting your best content to the best blogs publishing in your niche.

My blog is in its infancy - only two months old. I currently have a Google PR of 3 and DA of almost 35. Most of my incoming links are the result of guest blogging.

I should add that I've been guest blogging for more than a year now, long before I launched my personal blog, so I haven’t been doing it for the purpose of linkbuilding, nor do I recommend this approach.

Within a few months, I achieved a reasonably good DA and Google PR score because I was getting links from valuable sites. Check out this screenshot of my link profile in OSE to see what I mean:

Open Site Explorer

For me, guest blogging is fun and it provides a chance to enhance communication as well as my interpersonal skills. It also pushes me to read more and think outside-the-box to come up with something really amazing for guest post content.

If you want to enjoy all the benefits of guest blogging mentioned above, then just think creatively and put together the best (BEST ever) article for guest posting.

About the Author:

Moosa Hemani is a SEO Strategist and blogger at SETalks.com. SETalks recently launched a Guest Posting Services to help clients build high quality relationships within their targeted niches. Like this Article? Like SETalks on facebook.

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Seth's Blog : The end of should

The end of should

Banks should close at 4, books should be 200 pages long, CEOs should go to college, blogs should have comments, businessmen should be men, big deals should be done by lawyers, good food should be processed, surgeons should never advertise, hit musicians should be Americans, good employees should work at the same company for years...

Find your should and make it go away.