Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Bill Gross says "Fed Approaching Dead End Unsolvable Dilemma"; Feldstein sees 50% Chance of Recession; Three Cardinal Rules of Stimulus
- Asia-Pacific Bloodbath Begins, Expect Europe to Follow Suit
- Italy Calls "Financial Stability Meeting"; Spain PM Delays Vacation to "Closely Watch Economic Indicators"; EU says "No Rescue Plans for Italy, Spain"
- Fitch Says Debt Deal Alone Won't Sustain AAA Rating; Tale of Two Headlines
- Fitch Says Debt Deal Alone Won't Sustain AAA Rating; Tale of Two Headlines
- US Consumer Spending Unexpectedly Declines, First Drop in 20 Months; Personal Savings Rate Highest Since August 2010
- Freighter Rates See Significant Plunge In Normally Busiest Time of Year
- Spain, Italy, Belgium Bond Spreads Hit Euro Record; Italy 10-Year Bond Yield Highest Since 1997; Self-Fulfilling Crisis
- Petroleum Distillates Demand Shows "Definite Economic Downturn Starting April/May 2011"
Posted: 02 Aug 2011 09:42 PM PDT Is the US economy at a tipping point or has it already tipped over? The best one can possibly say is the economy is at a stall rate. "Economy Balanced on Edge" Bloomberg reports Feldstein Sees 50% Chance of U.S. Sliding Back Into a Recession Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein said the U.S. recovery that began two years ago has been losing steam and there are even odds the economy will slip into a recession.Bill Gross Says US Economy at "Tipping Point" "Fed Approaching Dead End Unsolvable Dilemma" Here are a few quotes from Gross Says Compromise Debt Deal Fails to Make Significant Dent in Deficit "In addition to an existing nearly $10 trillion of outstanding Treasury debt, the U.S. has a near unfathomable $66 trillion of future liabilities at net present cost"No Solution? There is a solution, just not a politically viable one. It's called debt deflation. That is the economy's way of purging the excesses of a housing bubble and debt orgy. Instead, the Fed and the ECB protected bondholders at the expense of taxpayers even though the unemployment rate is sky high. The Fed's action was supposed to get credit flowing again and create jobs. Instead, Fed policy created jobs in China while bailing out US bankers and wealthy bondholders, many of whom arguably belong in prison or stripped of their financial assets. In the end, Greece defaulted anyway at huge extra cost to European taxpayers. In the US, unemployment rate is 9.2% not counting millions of people who involuntarily dropped out of the labor force. Keynesian Clowns Argue For More Stimulus Sadly, Keynesian clowns still argue for more stimulus. Supposedly we need to build infrastructure. Let me ask a question: Where would the US economy be had we done that? The answer is certainly in a better position than the alternative of dropping bombs in Iraq. For starters the US would have better bridges instead of holes in the Iraq desert and millions of destroyed lives (and millions more enemies on top of that). However, the US economy would still be where it is now. Why? Because of the three cardinal rules of stimulus. Three Cardinal Rules of Stimulus
Never, ever do the Keynesian clowns want to throw in the towel on what they suggest. One might think that 20 year history of failed infrastructure stimulus in Japan would be enough to open the myopic eyes of Keynesian clowns but one would be wrong. US Structural Problems Before we go throwing money around, why not fix a few internal structural problems to ensure we at least get our money's worth. How do we do that? Easy.
Give me those measures and I will gladly hike taxes a bit. Those measures would at least help ensure we got our money's worth for government work. However, those three items, while desperately needed, do not solve the problem of why jobs are fleeing the US in the first place. For starters we need corporate tax laws that do not reward and encourage job and capital flight. Second and more importantly, we need to address the issue of trade imbalances. I addressed trade imbalances at length in ...
Before wasting more money on stimulus measures doomed to fail, how about fixing internal and external structural problems first? If we do that, and stop the war mongering, we will not even need stimulus, the economy will heal itself. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Asia-Pacific Bloodbath Begins, Expect Europe to Follow Suit Posted: 02 Aug 2011 07:03 PM PDT The Asia-Pacific bloodbath, following the US bloodbath is now underway. Australia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) are all down over 2%. South Korea is down nearly 3%. China is down only .64%. However, China was smacked yesterday more than any of the others. Australia and China both look anemic. click on chart for sharper image Click link to refresh Yahoo Finance Asia Pacific Scorecard. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Aug 2011 12:36 PM PDT Earlier today, in Spain, Italy, Belgium Bond Spreads Hit Euro Record; Italy 10-Year Bond Yield Highest Since 1997; Self-Fulfilling Crisis I was wondering how long it would take for emergency meetings. Any bets on when the EU has another emergency meeting? I suspect two more days of this action might do it. Now answer this: what can they do that makes any sense?Depending on your definition of "emergency meeting" the correct answer may have been less than a day. Italy to Hold Financial Stability Meeting Please consider Italy to hold financial stability meeting. Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti will hold a meeting of Italy's financial stability committee on Tuesday, including representatives from the central bank and bourse regulator Consob, a source said.Zapatero Delays Vacation to "Closely Watch Economic Indicators" The Walll Street Journal reports Spain PM Delays Vacation To Deal With Economic Woes Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero Tuesday postponed a scheduled vacation and Finance Minister Elena Salgado was talking to several of her European counterparts as borrowing costs for Spain and Italy hit new euro-era highs.Does canceling a vacation to hold discussions with counterparts in Italy, France, and Germany constitute an "emergency meeting"? I think so, even if it is an informal one. EU Claims "No Rescue Plans for Italy, Spain" While pondering the definition of "emergency meeting", please consider EU not considering rescue plans for Italy, Spain. The European Union has no plans to provide rescue loans to Italy and Spain, despite the rising borrowing costs facing these countries, a European Commission spokeswoman said Tuesday.Mish Translation of EU Statements "We are scared completely s***less by these events. If we were not scared s***less, there would be no need to comment at all. Finally, if yields head North for another day we will call an emergency meeting to discuss rescue plans for Italy and Spain." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Fitch Says Debt Deal Alone Won't Sustain AAA Rating; Tale of Two Headlines Posted: 02 Aug 2011 11:46 AM PDT Fitch will conclude its US debt review by the end August and the Associated Press has this headline on the story: US Debt deal alone won't sustain AAA rating On Tuesday, Fitch said the agreement was an important first step but "not the end of the process." The rating agency wants to see a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit.It is interesting to see how news agencies parse such reports. Reuters reports the same story headline as follows: Fitch keeps US AAA rating, review ongoing Fitch Ratings upheld its AAA rating on the United States on Tuesday after lawmakers approved spending cuts that will help avoid a U.S. default, but warned that the world's largest economy must reduce its debt burden or face a downgrade.While both headlines are true, the first more accurately conveys the mood of the moment. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Fitch Says Debt Deal Alone Won't Sustain AAA Rating; Tale of Two Headlines Posted: 02 Aug 2011 11:29 AM PDT Fitch will conclude its US debt review by the end August and the Associated Press has this headline on the story: US Debt deal alone won't sustain AAA rating On Tuesday, Fitch said the agreement was an important first step but "not the end of the process." The rating agency wants to see a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit.It is interesting to see how news agencies parse such reports. Reuters reports the same story headline as follows: Fitch keeps US AAA rating, review ongoing Fitch Ratings upheld its AAA rating on the United States on Tuesday after lawmakers approved spending cuts that will help avoid a U.S. default, but warned that the world's largest economy must reduce its debt burden or face a downgrade.While both headlines are true, the first more accurately conveys the mood of the moment. By the way, although a debt downgrade is well deserved, I doubt it will matter much. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Aug 2011 09:20 AM PDT US Consumers threw in the towel in June with Americans cut spending for first time in 20 months. Americans cut their spending in June for the first time in nearly two years after seeing their incomes grow by the smallest amount in nine months. The latest data offered a troubling sign for an economy that is adding few jobs and barely growing.Savings Rate Increases as Spending Declines Consumers spent less on food and gas because of declining prices but did not spend more elsewhere to make up for it. Since wages rose (barely), the savings rate went up. Did economists expect this? Bloomberg has the answer in Consumer Spending in U.S. Fell in June U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly dropped in June for the first time in almost two years and savings climbed, adding to evidence that the slump in hiring is hurting household confidence.In spite of two horrendous jobs reports and multiple other data points including shipping data released a few days ago and a pathetic ISM report that shows manufacturing is on the verge of contraction, I am pleased to report that optimism still reigns supreme in economists, on average. Most are still looking for a second-half recovery. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Freighter Rates See Significant Plunge In Normally Busiest Time of Year Posted: 02 Aug 2011 08:53 AM PDT This is normally the busiest time of year for shipping. Businesses are typically stocking up for back-to-school and holiday sales. Instead Container-Ship Plunge Signals U.S. Slowdown Plunging rates for chartering container vessels that carry sneakers, furniture and flat-screen TVs may signal a U.S. consumer slowdown and losses for shipping lines in what is traditionally their busiest time of the year.Harper Petersen Index Here is a chart of the Harper Petersen Ship Broker Index This is yet another indication of the global economic slowdown. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Aug 2011 02:39 AM PDT The idea that the latest Greek bailout plan would solve anything is officially dead. Government bond spreads of Spain, Italy, and Belgium are at all-time highs. The yield on 10-year bonds of Spain and Italy are now both well North of 6%. Here are a few charts to consider. Belgium 10-Year Government Bonds Spain 10-Year Government Bonds Italy 10-Year Government Bonds Germany 10-Year Government Bonds Portugal, Greece, and Ireland are now a sideshow. However, as a point of interest, 2-Year Greek bonds are 32.35% down from a record high of over 40% but well above the lows in the high 20's following the Greek bailout agreement. Self-Fulfilling Crisis Bloomberg reports Italy, Spain 10-Year Bond Spreads Are at Euro-Era Record on Growth Concern Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds dropped, pushing yields up to euro-era records versus benchmark German bunds, on concern that slowing growth will hamper efforts to tame the nations' debt loads.Expect a "stern warning" from ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet soon. Also expect the market to laugh in his face. Any bets on when the EU has another emergency meeting? I suspect two more days of this action might do it. Now answer this: what can they do that makes any sense? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Petroleum Distillates Demand Shows "Definite Economic Downturn Starting April/May 2011" Posted: 02 Aug 2011 12:50 AM PDT Charts of petroleum usage show signs of an economic downturn starting in April or May of 2011 says my friend Tim Wallace who writes ... Hello MishHistoric Growth Levels Off Peak Data click on chart for sharper image Petroleum Month-by-Month Since 2008 click on chart for sharper image Thanks again to Tim Wallace for these updates. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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