Central Perk: 3 aug. 2013

sâmbătă, 3 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013; Full-Time Employment Down Over 5 Million Since 2007
World’s lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for "imperceptible electronics"; Man vs. Machine Comparison
IMF "Baseline Scenario" Projects Spain Unemployment Will Remain Above 25% for 5 Years with Little Growth

An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013; Full-Time Employment Down Over 5 Million Since 2007

Posted: 03 Aug 2013 08:26 PM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace provides another excellent set of graphs on employment as shown below.

Full-Time Employment

click on any chart for sharper image

Full time employment is actually now 5.17 million below the 2007 level.
Total employment is 2.2 million below the 2007 level in spite of 13 million more people of working age.

Part-Time Employment

Wallace writes: "The past five years are near or above the previous all time high set back in 1982. These five years are all in that abysmal range. No other year comes close. I expect things will get worse as the year continues."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

World’s lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for "imperceptible electronics"; Man vs. Machine Comparison

Posted: 03 Aug 2013 09:12 AM PDT

The latest news from RoboHub shows World's lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for 'imperceptible electronics'.

Researchers from Asia and Europe have developed the world's lightest and thinnest organic circuits, which in the future could be used in a range of healthcare applications.

The new flexible touch sensor is the world's thinnest, lightest and people cannot feel the existence of this device.

The circuits are extremely lightweight, flexible, durable and thin, and conform to any surface. They are just 2 microns thick, just 1/5 that of kitchen wrap, and weighing only 3g/m^2, are 30 times lighter than office paper. They also feature a bend radius of 5 microns, meaning they can be scrunched up into a ball, without breaking. Due to these properties the researchers have dubbed them "imperceptible electronics", which can be placed on any surface and even worn without restricting the users movement.

The integrated circuits are manufactured on rolls of one micron thick plastic film, making them easily scalable and cheap to produce. And if the circuit is placed on a rubber surface it becomes stretchable, able to withstand up to 233% tensile strain, while retaining full functionality.

"This is a very convenient way of making electronics stretchable because you can fabricate high performance devices in a flat state and then just transfer them over to a stretchable substrate and create something that is very compliant and stretchable just by a simple pick and place process."

Video on "Imperceptible Electronics"

Link if video does not play: Imperceptible Electronics

Carl the Robot Serves Drinks

In case you missed it, please consider Carl the Robot Bartender Mixes Drinks and Chats With Customers

Also note that Farm Robots to Make Migrant Worker Vegetable Pickers Obsolete; Welcome the "Lettuce Bot", the "Grape Bot", the "Strawberry Bot"

Man vs. Machine Perspective

For comparison purposes, a Facebook video shows "Humans are Awesome".

Play the video for a very entertaining perspective on what Robots are up against.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

IMF "Baseline Scenario" Projects Spain Unemployment Will Remain Above 25% for 5 Years with Little Growth

Posted: 03 Aug 2013 03:50 AM PDT

I am normally critical of IMF forecasts, but their baseline unemployment projection for Spain of 25% or more with no more than .6% annual growth through 2017 seems reasonable. The pessimistic scenario is a toxic deleveraging downward spiral that continues right now.

The optimistic scenario assumes 2% growth, but that scenario does not start until 2018, and only if labor reforms in Spain and Europe take place.

Via Mish-modified Google translate from El Economista, please consider IMF estimates that Spain will grow by an average of 0.6% over the next five years

The team led by James Daniel, Chief of Mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Spain, estimates unemployment, which will remain above 25% over the next five years.

Ignoring the 1.6% downturn that the IMF expects the country to suffer this year, the average growth for the Spanish economy between 2014 and 2018 will be 0.6%. GDP growth will remain below 1% until 2017 and thereafter only begin to expand beyond these levels.

In 2018, the optimistic scenario in which reforms (both from Spain and Europe) are accelerated and gain ground would result in an acceleration of growth of 2% in 2018 and a significant increase in employment.

The pessimistic scenario starts immediately if deleveraging pressures and financial difficulties intensify. This scenario would create a toxic spiral between macro and financial context and would leave the public and private debt at high levels in the future, the country would not grow until 2017, and unemployment would remain above 27%.

The baseline scenario suggests Spain will probably start to grow later this year, in the third or fourth quarter, but that's not important. "The really important question is whether Spain will grow enough to create a lot of jobs to reduce the unacceptably high unemployment and increasing family income".

Unfortunately, growth will not be strong and have to generate a lot more work. Reducing unemployment requires action in many areas, including from Europe, "specifically on labor issues." The head of the IMF Mission explained that to ensure job creation Spain needs a further increase in wage flexibility, improvement in training for the unemployed, reduced taxes and elimination of regulations that discourage hiring.

The Fund criticizes the adjustment burden continues to fall on employment (temporary and youth especially) instead of wages. It therefore recommends a social pact in which employers commit to hiring increases in exchange for wage cuts of up to 10% over the next two years.

According to the IMF, these measures should be accompanied by a reduction in employers' contributions to social security and VAT increased two years of pay cuts.

IMF Proposes Spain Reduce Wages by 10% in Two Years

Via Google translate, La Vanguardia reports IMF Proposes Spain Reduce Wages by 10% in Two Years

The IMF said today that it would be beneficial to Spain a social pact in which employers commit to hiring increases in exchange for wage cuts in agency models would be 10% in two years.

These measures should be accompanied by a reduction in employers' contributions to social security and VAT increased two years after wage cuts, according to the annual report on the Spanish economy published today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF urges Spain to "greatly reduce the number of contracts", reviving the idea advocated by some analysts and agencies to establish "a permanent contract with lower firing costs initially and gradually increase with seniority."

IMF Silliness

Hiking the VAT is ridiculous, hiring commitments are ridiculous, and although lowering wages is likely a good idea, the free market should set rates, not government bureaucrats who have no idea what wages should be.

The best way for Spain to reduce its deficit is not by hiking the VAT, but by getting rid of government bureaucrats and lowering pension benefits for government workers.

IMF Projections

Projections	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Gross domestic product	-3.7	-0.3	0.4	-1.4	-1.6	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.2
Unemployment rate (percent)	18.0	20.1	21.7	25.0	27.2	27.0	26.9	26.6	26.0	25.3
Deficit as Percent of GDP	-11.2	-9.7	-9.0	-7.0	-6.7	-5.9	-5.1	-4.2	-3.3	-2.3

The above table condensed from IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Spain

Note that the IMF does not think Spain will reduce its deficit below 3% until 2018. Prime Minister Rajoy thinks the deficit will be 2.7% by 2016. Recall that in April of 2012, Rajoy projected 3% by 2013. 2016 is fantasy-land material as well. Even the IMF projection is highly optimistic (at best).

Spain may return to growth for a brief while later this year, but don't expect many jobs out of it. Spain needs labor reform, work rule reform, pension reform and lower taxes. So does France, Greece, Italy, and the rest of Europe.

Unfortunately, Brussels is likely to demand higher taxes, and the unions are likely to resist the needed reforms. A further downward spiral is not out of the question, but neither is stagnation and zero growth (lower than the baseline scenario of the IMF).

The optimistic scenario is five years away at the earliest, and unlikely at that, unless unions suddenly give in to badly needed reforms and/or some strong political leader can force free-market policies over substantial opposition.

In the meantime, who knows what crazy rules the Nannycrats in Brussels are likely to come up with?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

The President Has a Better Bargain for the Middle Class

Featured

The President Has a Better Bargain for the Middle Class

President Obama tells the American people that his plan for creating a better bargain for the middle class builds on the progress we’ve made -- fighting our way back from the worst economic recession of our lifetimes.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : Mumbo vs. Jumbo

Mumbo vs. Jumbo

Jumbo was the famous elephant that PT Barnum exhibited. His name came to stand for the big story, for the audacious claim, for making quite a noise.

You probably need more Jumbo in the story you're trying to tell.

Mumbo, on the other hand, is deliberately obfuscating the facts. Mumbo is manipulation, the creation of placebos that don't scale or the extension of power without the facts to back you up.

No more mumbo please.

Feel free to quote me on that the next time someone brings you a big heaping plate of hype.

[In fact, Mumbo-jumbo was probably a term that was xenophobic when it was first used more than a century ago (having nothing to do with elephants but probably something to do with an exotic religion), but I think it has evolved to have more to do with technology and slick salesmanship now.]

Mumbo just doesn't last as long as it used to.