marți, 22 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Germany Rules Out Eurobonds for 104th Time; Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't
Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet); Questions On Swapping Gold For Silver; Gold and Gold Shares Bottoming?
Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond the Lies of Bloomberg, Merkel, ECB, IMF, Ekathimerini; Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?

Germany Rules Out Eurobonds for 104th Time; Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:21 PM PDT

I have no idea what the actual number of times Germany Has ruled out Eurobonds. It could be 504 or even 1004. I Made up the number 104 which simply means "a lot".

Nonetheless, the Eurobond idea resurfaces every other week or so, and every time, someone from Germany (typically Merkel, the Bundesbank, or the Finance Minister) rules them out.

Once again, this time under pressure from French president François Hollande, Germany rules out common euro bonds.

Germany refused to share the debt burden of stressed eurozone peers on Tuesday, ignoring two of the most influential international economic bodies which offered support for proposals championed by Paris, Rome and Brussels ahead of a summit.

Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, has argued that any co-mingling of eurozone debt would remove incentives for southern economies to adopt structural reforms. The calls from the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development came on the eve of Wednesday's EU summit.

François Hollande, France's new president, has strongly backed common eurozone bonds – which would ease funding constraints for the eurozone's stressed periphery but potentially raise German borrowing costs by diluting its creditworthiness across the currency union.

German officials made clear the idea was a non-starter in Berlin.

"There is no way of introducing them under the current [EU] treaties. Indeed, there is an explicit ban on them," one senior German official said, adding Berlin would not drop its opposition in the foreseeable future. "That's a firm conviction which will not change in June."

Diplomats said the summit, which just last week looked like it would be a highly scripted affair on European growth, had become increasingly unpredictable, with leaders struggling with how to respond to the havoc wreaked by political instability in Greece. Officials emphasised that no formal decisions would be taken.

The euro bonds debate could produce fireworks between Mr Hollande and Ms Merkel – a possibility that has captivated officials involved, given the comparatively harmonious Franco-German relationship in the latter years of Nicolas Sarkozy's tenure. But most diplomats believe Ms Merkel would succeed in blocking any proposal, producing more smoke than fire.

Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't;

"They say that when Germany and France don't co-operate, we have a problem," one senior diplomat from a smaller EU country said. "And when they do, we have a problem, too."

The paragraph from the article sums up the situation nicely. Europe is scrambling madly for a solution acceptable to everyone, but the only solution that works is the one no one wants to hear: a breakup of the eurozone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet); Questions On Swapping Gold For Silver; Gold and Gold Shares Bottoming?

Posted: 22 May 2012 09:37 AM PDT

Please consider an interview with Adam Fleming and James Turk on precious metals and mining. James Turk is founder of GoldMoney.

Interview Synopsis

Adam Fleming, Chairman of Wits Gold and Fleming Family & Partners, discusses the gold bull market with GoldMoney's Chairman James Turk. Topics include metal price action, the eurozone's debt crisis, and mining in South Africa.

Adam points out that gold bull markets usually result in a 1:1 Dow/Gold ratio, something that he expects to see happen in the coming years. In other words, it is still a great time to buy gold.

Adam is pessimistic about the eurozone, and thought plans for European Monetary Union were delusional, on account of the differences in culture and political economy between different European Union countries. He also discusses his mining experience in South Africa, and why – contrary to much negative press the country gets – it is actually still a great place to live and work. He expects companies to increase their mining investments in the Witwatersrand Basin, and thinks that this region will remain the world's premier gold mining location.

This video was recorded on May 18 2012 in Jersey, British Channel Islands.

Relationship With GoldMoney

Once again I need to point out I have a relationship with GoldMoney.

I have no comment on the relative value of South Africa miners or any set of miners from any country vs. another country. Instead, I suggest in general that miners and gold are undervalued here.

The interesting part of the interview is where James Turk and Adam Fleming discuss interest rates and currencies.

Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet)

The knock on gold is that it does not pay interest. However, as Turk points out, the US dollar bears no interest either. Nor does the Australian dollar, the Loonie, the Euro, or any other currency.

Currencies only bear interest if you loan the money out, thereby converting the currency into a financial asset. Financial assets have risk as we have seen with corporate defaults, bankruptcies of GM, Lehman, Worldcom, and especially the collapse of the housing market in the US.

A collapse of the housing market in Australia and China is underway now as well. In short, the only way to collect interest is to take risk.

Please note that aFull-Fledged European Bank Run is underway now and the reason is fractional reserve lending.

In the above link I explain ....

Why ECB Deposit Insurance is Not the Answer to a Run on the Bank
How FDIC Played a Part in the US Real Estate Bust
That Monetarist Fools are Everywhere
Why People Believe in Gold

As noted previously: For the sake of full disclosure, my physical precious metals holdings are now entirely at GoldMoney and I have an affiliate relationship with them.

If anyone wants information about GoldMoney or investing in physical gold and silver in general, please Email Mish

Questions On Swapping Gold For Silver

Numerous people have asked about my post on May 1, I'm Swapping Some Gold for Silver.

There is little to tell. I decided for a portion of my assets I was willing to take the risk-reward setup of silver vs. gold.

While gold is money, I do not know if the free market would turn to silver as money or not.

Silver certainly has a major industrial component, while gold does not, and that makes silver more vulnerable than gold to a global slowdown.

After swapping all my silver for gold (See Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold April 27, 2011) I simply decided to take a little more risk in silver.

Clearly I was early. Should silver get to my original target of the low $20's I will swap more gold for silver. Perhaps silver gets to that price, perhaps not. I do not know, nor does anyone else. At least I do not pretend to.

There is little more that I can add other than silver is more volatile than gold and I still believe overweighting gold vs. silver substantially is a good idea.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond the Lies of Bloomberg, Merkel, ECB, IMF, Ekathimerini; Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?

Posted: 21 May 2012 11:14 PM PDT

A half-baked editorial on Bloomberg, full of one-sided distortion, warns Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond Syriza's Dangerous Lies.

Tsipras and his Syriza party are selling the Greek people a falsehood: namely, that Greece can renounce the terms of its bailout agreements with the euro-area governments and still receive their money. If voters believe him, and he attracts enough votes in elections on June 17 to follow through with his threats, then his country, Europe and the global economy will live for years with the consequences.

Tsipras hardly has a mandate -- he won 16.8 percent of the vote on May 6, and may increase that to 20 percent or more in June. But polls suggest Syriza is now fighting for first place with the center-right New Democracy party. In Greece, that matters, because the top party gets an extra 50 seats in the 300-seat parliament.

Europe's politicians, across the political spectrum, need to make clear the distinction between Syriza and other parties that disagree with Europe's austerity strategy. They need to say, repeatedly, that they want to help Greece, but they cannot, and it cannot remain in the euro, if its leaders simply abandon the commitments the country signed.

Greeks need to know that when they vote on June 17. And they need to know that what Syriza and its young leader are telling them is a lie.

Snakeoil vs. Lies

It's certainly true that it is highly unlikely for Greece to stay in the eurozone if it defaults on debt.

I am not a fan of lies (and I have pointed out lies by Tsipras). However, I am not a fan of snakeoil, thievery, and one-sided analysis either.

Snake Oil and One-Sided Analysis

Check out the Bloomberg hypocrisy in this statement: "Other Greek politicians say they'll seek to renegotiate the austerity package, and Europe may now listen."

Bloomberg knows full well those are blatant lies. Bloomberg could have and should have blasted the New Democrats and Pasok leaders for those lies (but chose not to).

Moreover, Bloomberg knows full well nearly all of Greece is dead set against more austerity measures. Bloomberg also knows full well if New Democracy and Pasok came flat out and said the deal will not be renegotiated they would be trounced to smithereens in the next election.

Bloomberg Hypocrisy

Bloombeg ignores the lies of Pasok and New Democracy while blasting a similar lie made by Syriza.

In essence Bloomberg wants to decide which set of lies is acceptable and which isn't.

In contrast, I have pointed out the lies made by all of them.

If Not Now When?

Merkel, the IMF, the ECB, and all the eurocrats in Brussels know another election is coming up. If terms of the bailout were to be renegotiated ever, logic would dictate now is the time.

Are we supposed to believe there will be a significant change of heart in Germany and Brussels after another Troika-clown is Prime Minister?

The rest of Europe is not doing anything to help Greece.

Lending Greece money in which most of the money goes straight back to the lenders to pay interest is not going to help Greece. Nor are hikes in the VAT and other taxes.

Certainly the Pact With the Devil Over Gold is not in Greece's best interest.

Simply put, Tsipras is correct in his desire to tell the Troika to go to hell. The rest of his message is clearly a lie, but at least Tsipras has the essential idea: The only way Greece can get out of its odious debt is to default.

Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?

The Greek website Ekathimerini is on a major fearmongering campaign as evidenced by Nightmare foretold if Greece heads for euro exit

In Athens, the homeless are on the streets in growing numbers, soup kitchens feed twice as many people as a year ago, and the poor are diving into garbage bins in search of scrap they can sell.

Greece is close to breaking point as it struggles with austerity targets set by creditors, but this is just a foretaste of the nightmare of unrest, hunger and even anarchy that could engulf the debt-crippled nation if it is forced out of the euro.

If the exact economic impact of such a move is hard to nail down - newly issued drachmas devalued by up to 70 percent, runaway inflation, a banking meltdown, a collapse in trade - the implications for ordinary Greeks crushed by the debt crisis are even harder to predict.

Without international bailout cash, salaries and pensions would go unpaid and violence, political extremism and uncontrolled emigration could quickly follow.

Dose of Reality

Let's stop right there for a little dose of reality. The first paragraph alone shows Greece is already in a nightmare scenario.

Greece would have been better off defaulting three years ago, two years ago, and last year.

Yet here we are with Bloomberg and Ekathimerini (among numerous others) fearmongering about a Greek exit.

They should have been equally adept at raising issues why Greece should not be in the Eurozone in the first place.

Since that is water over the dam already, the pertinent question is what is best for Greece going forward. I propose that another 10 years of austerity and depression is not the answer. I also believe that is what Greece is doomed to if it manages to stay in the eurozone that long.

Fearmongering by Ekathimerini Resumes With Intensity

Let's return now to Ekathimerini for some massive fearmongering.

Provopoulos warned as long ago as December that a return to the drachma would be «real hell», with Greeks forced to resort to barter during the transition period between the two currencies, «trading a kilo of olive oil for three kilos of flour».

"NIGHTMARE SCENARIO"

"There will be shortages in basic staples. Without fuel, the army and the police would not be able to move their vehicles.

A former finance minister, Yiannos Papantoniou, saw trouble ahead nearly a year ago: «Greece would not be able to support 11 million people so there will be huge emigration flows,» he told Reuters Insider television last July.

«Disruptions, social disruptions will come. I would say a regime of total anarchy."

What's Best for Greece

Greece needs to do what is best for Greece.

Short-term there will likely be intense breakup pain in Greece if it exits the eurozone. However, if Greece manages its cards correctly, Greece will recover far faster by telling the Troika to go to hell than by living the nightmare for 10 more years.

Icelandic Solution

Greece and Iceland are not the same. Iceland has exports and a work ethic. However, the facts show that Iceland recovered far faster because it had the courage to default, telling eurocrats where to go.

Simply put, Greece has nothing to lose and everything to gain by exiting the euro, the exact opposite of what Bloomberg and most of mainstream media would have you believe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

The Internet In 2015 Is The Down Of The Zettabyte Era [Infographic]

Posted: 22 May 2012 11:09 AM PDT

Today we live in a world of petabytes and exabytes but according to the latest findings from the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), we'll need to add the term "zettabyte" to our vocabulary by 2015.

So, how much exactly is a zettabyte?

A zettabyte is roughly 1000 exabytes. To place that amount of volume in more practical terms, an exabyte alone has the capacity to hold over 36,000 years worth of HD quality video…or stream the entire Netflix catalog more than 3,000 times. A zettabyte is equivalent to about 250 billion DVDs.

The infographic below is an excellent representation of how much internet will grow in 2015?

The credit goes to Cisco who compiled these excellent stats into an amazing infographic.

Click image to see a larger version.

Via Cisco

Russian Teens Film Their Insane Bridge Climb Above Russky Island Bridge

Posted: 21 May 2012 08:55 PM PDT

19-year-old photographer Vitaly Raskalov and two friends climbed the Zolotoy Rog Bridge in Vladivostok, Russia. The next day, they climbed the even higher Russky Island Bridge. Not surprisingly, these kids were arrested and fined after posting the evidence of their escapade atop the Russky Island Bridge. The fine was the equivalent of ten U.S. dollars, but perhaps the fine dished out by Mom and Dad was more appropriate.

Via The Moscow Times

GM's Doing it Wrong: Facebook Marketing Lessons

Posted: 21 May 2012 02:44 PM PDT

Posted by wrttnwrd

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

By dumping Facebook, GM’s doing it wrong

GM made a huge stink last week when they pulled their $10 million Facebook advertising budget.

They’re doing it wrong. And you can learn some valuable lessons from their mistake:

Facebook is the best display advertising deal on the internet

The Register pointed out that Facebook ads average a .05% click-through rate. Click-through rate is the total number of clicks on an ad, divided by the number of ad views, or impressions. That’s very low, compared to .4% on Google’s Display Network.

But you can purchase ads on both networks on a cost-per-click basis: You only pay if someone actually clicks on the ad. If a GM ad shows up on my Facebook page, and I glance at it but move on, GM doesn’t pay a thing. But I still saw GM’s ad. It’s free display advertising!

There’s no way to pin a value on that glance, but there is a value. If nothing else, GM just occupied attention otherwise available for Toyota.

Managed correctly, Facebook advertising is an unbeatable display ad bargain. GM’s losing a huge branding opportunity.

Understand earned media

Social media is earned media. Selling in earned media is a two-step process:

Attract and build an audience over time.
Then you sell to that audience.

Facebook ads boost step 1.

GM claims Facebook ads aren’t delivering results. But they’re measuring the wrong results, I’ll bet: They’re looking at clicks, sales and web site traffic. They should be looking at new followers, share of voice, and the quality of the following they build.

You can grow your brand without paid Facebook ads, by posting to your Facebook page. In our tests, 2-4 great posts per day is the minimum effective pace for a major brand. Post less often and your brand shrinks. General Motors posts every 1-2 days, at best. With that pace, and without ads, they can’t grow their brand.

Don’t repeat their mistake: Understand earned media. Your Facebook following is a long-term asset. It’s a community that’s primed for your marketing message. Neglect it and you’ll fail. GM has to either maintain their ad spend (clearly they won’t) or step up their other efforts (hopefully they will). As it stands now, when GM stops their ad campaign, their Facebook page will stagnate.

Learn to measure earned media

You can measure the return from earned media on Facebook. Run Facebook-specific offers. GM could run a regional campaign with participating dealers and offer cash back, or free oil changes for 3 years, or similar. See how many people participate. Use the performance of those campaigns over time to track the value of your average Facebook follower.

That’s only part of the value generated, but it’s a start. It lets you sketch out a comparison of ‘good’ versus ‘bad’ ads, content and offers.

Learn to measure earned media performance.

Don’t amputate for a hangnail

$10 million is a huge Facebook spend. Chances are, GM can optimize it and improve performance, or reduce waste by removing non-performing ads and segments. Instead, they’re chucking the entire budget baby out with the bathwater. If GM applied the budgeting technique to print and television, they’d shut down those campaigns, too.

If you manage a Facebook campaign, you’ll hit a point where you want to turn it off. Don’t. Instead, test, refine and improve. Use Facebook’s amazing segmenting tools to create precisely-targeted ads.

Don’t hack off a limb because of a hangnail. That’s what GM is doing.

Keep perspective

Facebook ads represent .5% of GM’s total marketing budget. To be worthwhile, Facebook ads would need to generate 45,000 cars sold. Staggering numbers for you and I, but for a company that sold 9 million cars last year, that’s a totally achievable goal.

My last advice: Don’t shut down an ad spend that’s less than 1% of your budget unless you’re 100% certain it’s a failure. When the stakes are low and the potential high, keep perspective. Bottom line, that’s what GM forgot to do, and it’s going to hurt them a lot more than Facebook in the long run.

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Getting Started with the Mozscape API

Posted: 21 May 2012 03:30 AM PDT

Posted by Lisa - MozStaff

I’m pretty new here at SEOmoz, and one of the projects I’m working on is improving the Mozscape API wiki content so it’s easier for you to learn how to access all of the cool data available through the Mozscape API.

I decided to jump in and try to figure it out. My initial plan was not to cheat... that is, not use the help I have as an employee that’s not available to most API users. But I got stuck, so I had to change the rules... You’ve heard of Calvinball, right? I made a new rule that I get to cheat, as long as I share.

Joining the Game

I’d already signed up, since I work here, but this part isn’t hard. If you’re not already a member, go to http://www.seomoz.org/api/keys, and either sign up for a free PRO trial, or register for the SEOmoz community. Both of these give you access to the free version of the Mozscape API. If you like what you see and want more requests and full access to the API, details on what’s available are on our API Pricing page.

Getting My Secret SEOmoz API Key

This part would fit right into Calvin Ball... I get a secret key! Once I’m signed in, the Getting Started page shows the Generate API Credentials section. I wasn’t sure what to put in the Your Access ID section, so I just clicked the button. Then had to agree to the terms of service, and clicked it again, and voila, I have my Access ID and my Secret Key.

Tip #1: You don’t enter Your Access ID, we generate it. Just read our terms of service, click the box agreeing to them, and then push the big Generate Secret Key button (or Regenerate, if you’ve already done it once).

Secret Keys, Signatures, and Signed Authentication, Oh My!

As I looked at creating my first API request, I came to a complete standstill figuring out how to authenticate my request. My problems were completely self-inflicted, but I had to resort to cheating to overcome them.

Cheat #1 - Asking for internal guru help

I’d started reading the forums, and the number one issue on the forums at the moment is failed authentication. Before I started this exercise, I’d read a forum post that said the authentication example on the Getting Started page was old and no longer the recommended way to do things.

This led me to ignoring what it actually said on this page, and trying all sorts of things to create a Unix Timestamp and Valid Signature on my own, when it was sitting in front of me the whole time. It took talking to folks here to get me back on track.

Tip #2: Remember that the forums represent a moment in time. We’ve been changing things, and fixing things, and what you read in the forums *could* be outdated. We noticed the sample was bad, wrote about it in the forums, and then fixed it, meaning the forum post is now out-of-date.

The Sample Valid API Signature really is a Valid API Signature

After the above flailing about, and my first cheat, I realized the Sample Valid API Signature is actually a genuine, A#1, valid API signature, and allows me to do a query right away.

So, I was able to use the Sample Request on the Getting Started page to get the correct member ID, timestamp, and signature in the correct format.

Tip #3 & 4:

If you've been flailing about after getting your secret key (as I did), you'll need to refresh the page to update the timestamp. The timestamp on the sample is only valid for about 5 minutes.
Your signature has to be base64 and then URL encoded. This is why the Signature line on the Getting Started page is slightly different from the Signature in the Sample Request, which has been encoded for you. Make sure you use the Sample Request string.

URL Metrics for the Win

Once I realized the signed authentication was provided for me in the sample request, it came down to just using the wiki documentation to modify the request for the URL and metrics that I wanted. The URL was easy; I just changed the website in the sample request from “www.seomoz.org&2fblog” to the website of my local food coop.

Then, since the sample request uses the url-metrics API call, I looked up how to add the URL metrics I wanted on the URL-Metrics API wiki page. I picked these metrics:

Metric	Bit Flag	Returns
Title	1	ut
URL	4	uu
Subdomain	8	ufq
Links	2048	uid

Adding all of the bit flags for these up gives me 2061. So I put 2061 in the Cols parameter.

Cheat #2 - Knowledge Aforethought

Since I’ve been here a little over a month, I had already looked at the URL-metrics API page, and been working on improving the content there. So I already knew how to use the Cols parameter and how to add up the bit flags to get the metrics I wanted.

Hobbes gets the Link Data

All of the above modifications to the Sample Request gave me my first working query:

http://lsapi.seomoz.com/linkscape/url-metrics/www.snoislefoods.coop?Cols=2061&AccessID=<my_member_ID>&Expires=<My_sample_timestamp>&Signature=<My_sample_signature>

I put it in a new browser window, hit enter, and got my first response:

{"ufq":"www.snoislefoods.coop/","uid":864,"ut":"Organic Produce Co op, Natural Food Cooperative | Sno-Isle Natural Foods Co-op Everett WA","uu":"www.snoislefoods.coop/"}

Success! I used the table on the URL-metrics API page (excerpted above) to interpret my link data.

Changing the Rules

So, this is what I learned that might be helpful to you if you’re just starting out. Now, most of the time, you’re not going to access your link data by typing a request like I did in the browser window, but I hope this helps you in understanding what all of the moving pieces are when generating your queries programmatically.

After my experience with this, I’ll be working on improving the Getting Started page, forum pages, and the wiki docs to help you avoid the parts that confused me on my first go around.

If you have any suggestions, success stories, or really good cheats, I’d love to hear from you. Email api@seomoz.org.

Lisa - Mozstaff

Joplin: Remember, Rejoice, Rebuild

Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Joplin: Remember, Rejoice, Rebuild

On year ago today, a deadly tornado ripped through Joplin, Missouri, killing 161 and displacing thousands. Last night, President Obama returned to Joplin to deliver the commencement address to Joplin High School.

To mark the anniversary, we've put together a piece featuring interviews with those involved with the city's remarkable recovery, photos from the effort to rebuild, and video from President Obama's visit to Joplin. It's an inspiring story -- we hope you'll check it out.

Read the Joplin story.

Seth's Blog : Ranking for signal to noise ratio

Ranking for signal to noise ratio

A whisper in a quiet room is all you need. There's so little noise, so few distractions, that the energy of the whisper is enough to make a dent.

On the other hand, it's basically impossible to have a conversation (at any volume) in a nightclub.

Signal to noise ratio is a measurement of the relationship between the stuff you want to hear and the stuff you don't. And here's the thing: Twitter and email and Facebook all have a bad ratio, and it's getting worse.

The clickthrough rates on tweets is getting closer and closer to zero. Not because there aren't links worth clicking on, but because there's so much junk you don't have the attention or time to sort it all out.

Spam (and worse, spamlike messages from organizations and people that ought to treasure your attention and permission) are turning a medium (email) that used to be incredibly rich into one that's becoming very noisy as well.

And you really can't do much to fix these media and still use them the way you're used to using them.

The alternative, which is well worth it, is to find new channels you can trust. An RSS feed with only bloggers who respect your time. Relentless editing of who you follow and who you listen to and what gets on the top of the pile.

Until you remove the noise, you're going to miss a lot of signal.