Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Chris Christie Wins Reelection in Landslide; Election Exit Poll Statistics; Reflections on Christie's Win
- In Praise of Pronounced Unhappiness
- Non-Manufacturing ISM Beats Expectations Sending Bond Yields Higher
| Posted: 05 Nov 2013 06:36 PM PST The New York Times reports Chris Christie Re-elected Governor of New Jersey. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey won re-election by a crushing margin on Tuesday, a victory that vaulted him to the front ranks of Republican presidential contenders and made him his party's foremost proponent of pragmatism over ideology.Exit Polls The NYT has some interesting exit polls. I put them in table form.
Those exit poll results are from 7:57 p.m. E.S.T. Please check back in with the New York Times for updated returns. Reflections on Christie's Win Without a doubt Christie is now a national frontrunner for the 2016 election. Is that a good thing? Here is my answer in context. Readers know I preferred Christie over Mitt Romney in 2012. It was a case of the unknown vs. the known. Romney wanted a war with Iran and a trade war with China. That coupled with his stance on abortion made him unelectable. Why? Independents would not and did not vote for him. Where Christie stands on unions is known and welcome. However, we still do not know much else about Christie. Where does he stand on war-mongering, military spending in general, security, Obamacare, the NSA, the Fed, and trade policy? Those are all unknowns. But we do know his strong right to life message is not going to play well with most pro-choice independents, including this one. Republicans really need to throw that issue into the trashcan where it belongs. It can (and did) contribute to national election defeats. Here's the deal. Voters, in general, can live with some restrictions on abortion. A huge majority cannot accept the viewpoint that abortion should be totally outlawed. Republicans would be smart to adopt a middle of the road approach, as opposed to the religious-wrong approach of overturning Rove vs. Wade. Similarly (right, wrong, or otherwise), the majority of Americans are in favor of "some" gun control measures. I can debate this form either side. But debate is pointless. The simple fact of the matter is that Republicans do not do themselves any favors by nominating extreme candidates on these issues. In contrast to Christie, we know where Rand Paul stands on all of those issues. And while I do not agree with Paul on everything, this time I will take the known (Rand Paul) as opposed to the unknown (Chris Christie). Given they seem to agree on my one key dispute with Paul, my position is highly unlikely to change. Still, Republicans can do far worse than Christie. Mitt Romney was a complete disaster. Hopefully the Republican leadership learned a lesson. If they didn't, and if Republicans nominate another extreme right basket-case, Republicans can expect to lose the election to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Don't blame me, I am only the messenger. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In Praise of Pronounced Unhappiness Posted: 05 Nov 2013 12:28 PM PST Today, I sing in glorious praise of unhappiness. Lest you think I lost my mind, first consider an Op-Ed in The Hill by life-long friend David Wise. He writes on Ending the Budget Wars. For the second time in two years the U.S. has stepped back from the precipice of default.Common and Uncommon Ground I am not in complete agreement with everything my life-long friend says. For starters, I disagree with his stance that a default would have been catastrophic. That's a moot point however, and cannot be proven either way because the precipice was essentially an illusion. We may have been on the edge, but there was approximately a zero percent chance of falling off. Those small differences aside, I wholeheartedly agree with the three key ideas in Wise's article.
Compromise Misery Needed In regards to point number 3, Wise did not go far enough. I propose what's needed is for Democrats and Republicans alike to both walk away from the table, not only unhappy, but downright miserable. Here are my proposals for mutual misery. Democrat Misery
In return for the above much needed Democrat misery, I would be willing to accept a modest increase in taxes. Of course that would make Republicans unhappy. But unhappiness is not what we need, we need outright misery as follows. Republican Misery
Some issues are non-partisan. For example food crop supports are promoted by farm-state Republicans and Democrats. Drug imports fall along similar lines. Thus we need to spread the misery. Non-Partisan Misery
Food Stamp Misery To get people off welfare and on to workfare, we need to reduce the incentives to collect welfare. This is what I suggested earlier.
My proposal would do something positive for food stamp recipients' health and the budget. And what better way to make people miserable than to make them eat healthy? Hopefully, miserable enough to seek a job. I am open to still more misery, as much as it takes, on each side, to balance the budget and lay a foundation for growth. Make All the Politicians and Lobbyists Miserable I nearly missed this key point: We need to make all of the politicians, public union advocates, and lobbyists on both sides of the aisle completely miserable. The way to do that is institute serious campaign finance reform. Vote buying and political pandering on both sides of the aisle are key reasons we are in this fiscal mess in the first place. To date, the word "compromise" means both sides get all the spending they want, deficit be damned. Worse yet, politicians are all too happy to let lobbyists write the legislation in return for donations. The result is the worst legislation money can buy. Footnote I revised the ending paragraphs with some small changes regarding food stamps, and more importantly to include campaign finance reform, vote buying, and the current meaning of compromise. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-Manufacturing ISM Beats Expectations Sending Bond Yields Higher Posted: 05 Nov 2013 10:46 AM PST The October 2013 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®, released today, came in at 55.4. This was above the bloomberg consensus estimate of 54.5 ISM at a Glance
Treasury Yields Rise Treasury yields are up a bit in response to the numbers. Here are a couple of charts. $TNX: 10-Year Yield  Yield: 2.653% +0.51 Percentage Points $TYX: 30-Year Yield  Yield: 3.737% +0.46 Percentage Points Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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