Central Perk: 17 aug. 2012

vineri, 17 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Break-Up Could Make EU Function Better" Says Finnish Foreign Minister; Finland Totally Committed to Euro, Yet Prepared Breakup

Posted: 17 Aug 2012 06:49 PM PDT

Yesterday, Finland's foreign minister said "Finland must face openly the possibility of a euro-break up"

"We have to face openly the possibility of a euro-break up," said Erkki Tuomioja, the country's veteran foreign minister and a member of the Social Democratic Party, one of six that make up the country's coalition government.

"It is not something that anybody — even the True Finns [eurosceptic party] — are advocating in Finland, let alone the government. But we have to be prepared," he told The Daily Telegraph.

"Our officials, like everybody else and like every general staff, have some sort of operational plan for any eventuality.

Mr Tuomioja's intervention is the bluntest warning to date by a senior eurozone minister. As he discussed the crisis, the minister had a copy of the Economist on his desk. It had a picture of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, reading a fictitious report entitled "How to break up the euro", with a caption: "Tempted, Angela?"

"This is what people are thinking about everywhere," said Mr Tuomioja. "But there is a consensus that a eurozone break-up would cost more in the short-run or medium-run than managing the crisis.

"But let me add that the break-up of the euro does not mean the end of the European Union. It could make the EU function better," he said.

What Consensus?

I have to wonder "what consensus" the Finnish foreign minister is referring to when he says "eurozone break-up would cost more in the short-run or medium-run than managing the crisis".

Consensus of nannycrats? Of politicians who bet their career on saving the euro? Of the Southern eurozone countries?

His second thought is far more believable: "Break-up could make EU function better".

Indeed nearly anything would be better than the eurocrats headed by Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker and European Commission president Jose Barroso.

Finland Distances Itself From Tuomioja's Comments

No doubt Tuomioja's comments raised quite a stir because today Finland's European affairs minister stated Finland is totally committed to the euro.

Finland is totally committed to the euro, its European affairs minister said following comments from its foreign minister that the country was preparing for a break up of the single currency.

"Foreign minister Tuomioja's statement in no way reflects the Finnish government position," said Alexander Stubb, highlighting deep divisions within the coalition government. "Finland stands 100pc behind the euro," the European affairs minister added.

He was speaking after foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja told The Daily Telegraph "we have to face openly the possibility of a euro-break up."

Mr Tuomioja, a member of the coalition's Social Democratic Party, said that Finnish officials had an "operational plan for any eventuality."

Mr Stubb, a member of the centre-right Kokoomus Party, said his colleague had probably spoken in a personal capacity. "The government's position is very clear: we stand pro-European and we stand to work, to improve the situation in the eurozone," he said.

The positions of preparing for a break-up and being committed to the Euro are not mutually exclusive. However, the more talk there is of a break-up, the more that path becomes acceptable.

The point is moot however. The Problem in Europe is Arithmetic, Not Confidence. The Eurozone Cannot Possibly Survive Intact.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Unemployment Up in 44 States; New York Unemployment Highest Since 1983; No Improvement Nationally in 2012; Looking Ahead: What's Next?

Posted: 17 Aug 2012 09:46 AM PDT

Unemployment was up in 44 States, down in two states, down in D.C, and unchanged in four others. There has been no improvement nationally this year.

Bloomberg reports U.S. Joblessness Rise Broad-Based as 44 States Show Gain

The jobless rate climbed in 44 U.S. states in July, showing last month's increase in unemployment was broad based.

Alabama and Alaska registered the worst performance, with joblessness advancing by 0.5 percentage point in each, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Payrolls grew in 31 states last month, led by California and Michigan.

Unemployment jumped to 8.3 percent in Alabama from 7.8 percent in June, and climbed to 7.7 percent in Alaska from 7.2 percent, today's report showed. Nevada, where the rate rose to 12 percent from 11.6 percent, remained the state with the highest level of joblessness in the country.

Rhode Island, at 10.8 percent, was second, followed by California at 10.7 percent.

North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in the nation, even as it rose to 3 percent from 2.9 percent the prior month.

Two states, Idaho and Rhode Island, showed a drop in their unemployment rates. Joblessness was unchanged in four states.

Unemployment in New York rose to 9.1 percent, the highest since 1983, and payrolls dropped by 3,700 workers.

The jobless rate has exceeded 8 percent for 42 consecutive months, the longest stretch in the post-World War II era.

New Jersey Unemployment at 35-Year High

The New York statistics above tie in nicely with what I said early this morning in New Jersey Unemployment Hits 35-Year High of 9.8%.

National Unemployment Rate

Note that three years into an alleged recovery, the unemployment is still higher than the peaks in 8 of the last 10 recessions.

National Unemployment Rate Detail

There has been no improvement in the unemployment rate in 2012.

Headline Jobs Number vs. Household Survey

Please remember the reported headline jobs number has no bearing on the unemployment rate. Rather the unemployment rate is determined by a phone survey. That's why its important to dig into the reported monthly jobs numbers.

This is what I had to say on August 3, in Headline Jobs +163,000, But Household Survey Shows -195,000 Jobs; Unemployment +.1 to 8.3%

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

US Unemployment Rate +.1 to 8.3%

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,683,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,655,000.

This month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 150,000.

This month, those "not" in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000, another record high. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.

In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,027,000.

Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,770,000.

Participation Rate was steady at 63.8%.

There are 8,246,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 36,000

Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 5.185 million a decline of 185,000.

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

The key point above is those "not" in the labor force rose by over 2 million.

Reasons for Artificially Low Unemployment Rate

In the past several years, millions of citizens want a job and need a job but have not looked for a job by strict BLS accounting. Searching for jobs in the want-ads or on Monster does not count. One needs to actually apply, have an interview, or send out resumes.
People are going back to school in staggering numbers and young adults are staying in school longer because there are no jobs. Please recall my post 53% of New Graduates are Jobless or Underemployed; Rude Awakening for Class of 2012; Useless Degrees; Who Benefits From Student Aid?
In my article Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics? I noted that "Middle-Aged Borrowers Pile on Student Debt". Well, if you are in school, you are not in the labor force.
Disability Fraud is on the rise. I have written about it many times as that link shows. As related to unemployment, the key report is 2.2 Million Go On Disability Since Mid-2010; Fraud Explains Falling Unemployment Rate.
Also consider How Much Debt Does it Take to Generate $1 in GDP? Disability Fraud vs. Expiring Unemployment Benefits Revisited

Not only is the unemployment rate artificially low, but it is no longer falling. And since it has stalled, we had three anemic retail sales reports followed by a reported rise last month.

I think that latest retail sales report will be revised away, and I also believe the US is back in recession. If so, expect the unemployment rate to head back up and retail sales to weaken further.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List