Central Perk: 1 nov. 2014

sâmbătă, 1 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Christmas Shopping Season Starts Today: Walmart Leads the Way with Price Cuts on 20,000 Items for the Holiday Season

Posted: 01 Nov 2014 11:58 AM PDT

In the past few years the Christmas shopping season moved from the "Black Friday" the day after Thanksgiving, to earlier and earlier starts on Thanksgiving, then to the day before Thanksgiving.

Today Walmart leapfrogged the pack with 20,000 items on sale for the holiday season.

When Halloween ends on Friday, Walmart will be switching over its stores to greet the holiday season.

On Saturday, the retailer will offer more than 20,000 "rollbacks" or sale prices on items including groceries and popular brands such as Disney "Frozen," Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Samsung, and Dell.

Then, on Monday, Walmart will relaunch its 24-hour holiday cyber savings event, in which customers can take advantage of free shipping on millions of items from Walmart.com. Orders must exceed $50 for free shipping. Walmart said it has expanded its online offerings to include 7 million items – one million more than last holiday season.

At the current rate of accelerated progression, the Christmas shopping season will soon move to October, then September. Christmas year round, anyone?

Commenting on the news, Janet Yellen said "Damn Walmart to hell! They should be raising prices not lowering them".

Actually, I made that up, but it's likely what's going on in her mind. Indeed, it's precisely the way Keynesian and Monetarist clowns think.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Chris Martenson and Mish Audio on Bank of Japan's Surprise Move on Friday

Posted: 01 Nov 2014 12:14 AM PDT

Every other Wednesday or so, Chris Martenson and I get together for a podcast. Sometimes one of us or the other is out of town, and sometimes Chris has other guest speakers.

Because of scheduling difficulties, Chris and I got together today instead of Wednesday. I asked Chris to make today's podcast generally available.

For our take of Friday's BoJ surprise move, please play the audio on Chris' Peak Prosperity site: Off the Cuff: Japanese Central Bank Throws Granny Under the Bus.

The audio is about 25 minutes long. The podcasts are not scripted. Chris and I just talk "off the cuff" on events of the day or the week.

In case you missed my Friday commentary, please see Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Organizing for growth

Organizing for growth

Maybe it’s (finally) working. Maybe demand is up, opportunities keep presenting themselves and people want to work with you.

So why are you so stressed out? It might be because different organizational choices lead to different paths for growth.

Consider a house painter. His business has always been okay, but thanks to his skill and a local building boom, jobs keep showing up.

The traditional method: He lays out the money for paint, he does the work, he sends a bill, and soon, he gets paid.

The good news is that as a freelancer, he's super flexible and can withstand tough times. But in this environment, all sorts of trouble hits. First, there's a cash flow issue. New jobs mean more need for paint and materials, but he has to lay out his own cash to pay for it. Second, new jobs mean more work, but he's the best (and the cheapest) employee, so he ends up working way more hours. No cash, no time, no joy.

An alternative is for the painter to create a scalable system. He could require a down payment on every job, an amount calculated to cover all of his cash costs. Second, he could spend the time to build a pool of journeyman painters, a Rolodex of talent ready when he needs it. In this scenario, the painter becomes a foreman, not a painter any longer.

Or, consider one step beyond that, in which the painter hires several foremen, each responsible for his own Rolodex. Now, the painter is a CEO, a salesperson, the architect of a brand, an organization and its growth. But that still involves a lot of risk as he scales.

The last structure I'll point out is the idea that the painter could refine his system and instead of dealing with homeowners, he could find partners, and license them the system. The system might include his brand name, his sales approach, a computerized, data-driven direct marketing program and most of all, a rule book that lets people who don't have his iniative enter this business. By charging every partner who joins an upfront fee (this is how franchises work) as well as a share of their income, he can grow from state to state, building a nationwide painting behemoth.

There's no right answer. Not everyone should run a national painting franchise business. The key insight is to feel the pain that an organizational choice leads to and fix that instead of merely chasing demand and embracing each opportunity (no matter how juicy) as it comes along.

The key things to focus on, I think, are:

Cash flow

Demand enhancement

Increasing the ability to keep your promises by investing in a pipeline of talent

And most of all, reminding yourself why you're doing this in the first place.