Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Phantom Liquidity and Perfect Pilfering
- Did the Rebels Have a Buk System? How About a Working One? Flight Diverted Over Restricted Space?
- Ukrainian Buk Air Defense System Allegedly Deployed Near Donetsk Yesterday; Questions Still Linger
- Did Ukraine Shoot Down Passenger Plane? They Did Once Before: SA Flight 1812 Erroneously Downed by Ukraine in 2001
- Malaysian BA 777 Passenger Jet Goes Down Over Ukraine, 295 Killed; Ukraine Blames Separatists Who Deny Responsibility
Phantom Liquidity and Perfect Pilfering Posted: 17 Jul 2014 10:49 PM PDT A friend of mind asked me to comment on the Nanex article Perfect Pilfering, a detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach. We received trade execution reports from an active trader who wanted to know why his large orders almost never completely filled, even when the amount of stock advertised exceeded the number of shares wanted. For example, if 25,000 shares were at the best offer, and he sent in a limit order at the best offer price for 20,000 shares, the trade would, more likely than not, come back partially filled. In some cases, more than half of the amount of stock advertised (quoted) would disappear immediately before his order arrived at the exchange. This was the case, even in deeply liquid stocks such as Ford Motor Co (symbol F, market cap: $70 Billion, NYSE DMM is Barclays). The trader sent us his trade execution reports, and we matched up his trades with our detailed consolidated quote and trade data to discover that the mechanism described in Michael Lewis's "Flash Boys" was alive and well on Wall Street.Phantom Liquidity Nanex goes on to discuss detailed analysis of the trade as well as "phantom liquidity". Recall that "liquidity" is the alleged benefit of HFT. The article shows that order cancellations happen far faster than trade executions, and that is why the Ford trader wasn't able to get the advertised liquidity - the orders simply disappeared faster than exchanges processed his buy order. Nanex concludes "If you believe that the industry can fix these problems on their own, then we believe you are no longer fit to regulate, because that is not, and never was, how Wall Street works. Honestly, a free for all, no–holds–barred environment would be better than the current system of complicated rules which are partially enforced, but only against some participants. And make no mistake, what is shown above is as close to automatic pilfering as one can get. It probably results in a few firms showing spectacular, perfect trading records; it definitely results in people believing the market is unfair and corrupt." I agree with the conclusion, also noting that insider trading is allowed for members of Congress but no one else. But did Namex really reveal anything? The answer is not really. There were spoof bids and offers in the markets long before the arrival of HFT. Yet, things are undoubtedly worse today with more spoofs from fewer and fewer places. That is the only way some HFT systems can go for months or longer without reporting a single loss for even a day. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Did the Rebels Have a Buk System? How About a Working One? Flight Diverted Over Restricted Space? Posted: 17 Jul 2014 09:12 PM PDT People seem to have their minds made up on whether or not the plane was shot down and by whom. The propaganda du jour is the separatists were responsible. By even discussing alternatives, ridiculous accusations have come in about "Mish" being a Russian name. The first casualty in war is always the truth. Statements from both sides are suspect. Here is another update from reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian, regarding whether or not the rebels had a Buk system. Hi Mish,Questions Du Jour
Missile Claims Deepen Escalation Fears Please consider Missile Claims Deepen Escalation Fears Little is yet known about who targeted Malaysian airlines jet MH17. But the destruction of an airliner at high altitude by a missile strike, as Kiev suggests, shows the conflict in eastern Ukraine has reached a new level in terms of military hardware and tactics.So, was the captured system working or not? If it was working, were both sides lying about it? You-Tube Proof ZeroHedge had a couple of interesting posts today. Here is the first: Ukraine Releases YouTube Clip "Proving" Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH-17. If you read the article you will note that the You-Tube timestamps have been edited and it is not entirely clear who is even having the discussion that Kiev offers as "proof". In short, there is no proof of anything other than someone is attempting to cover their tracks. ZeroHedge concludes "The opinion of the world as to who is at fault here is most certainly very much made up by now anyway, and if it isn't, the "unbiased" media will certainly help, even it has nothing but repetitive soundbites and speculation presented as fact, in the coming days." Also consider the ZeroHedge question Was Flight MH-17 Diverted Over Restricted Airspace? My interpretation is a combination of maybe and no. The flight did take a mysterious path for reasons not yet reported or understood. The Financial Times reports Downed Airliner was Travelling Above No-Fly Zone. While the plane was not in restricted space, it was just above it, but perhaps on an unusual path. If so, why? Conspiracy Theories Clearly there is a cover-up conspiracy by someone. Whoever did it, knows they did it. I am willing to entertain the possibility that it could be either side, my position all along. I am not willing to accept the mainstream media position that the rebels are clearly to blame. The fact remains that unless Kiev and the rebels are both telling the same lie, there is no reason to believe the Buk system captured by the rebels is in working order. Finally, Ukraine accidentally shot down a civilian plane once before (see Did Ukraine Shoot Down Passenger Plane? They Did Once Before: SA Flight 1812 Erroneously Downed by Ukraine in 2001) Ukraine denied it then. Why is it so inconceivable the same thing happened again? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Ukrainian Buk Air Defense System Allegedly Deployed Near Donetsk Yesterday; Questions Still Linger Posted: 17 Jul 2014 01:43 PM PDT A Russian news website claims Ukrainian Army Buk Missile Likely Downed Malaysian Plane. A Ukrainian army battalion of Buk air defense systems was deployed near the city of Donetsk a day before the crash of a Malaysian passenger plane on Thursday, making the downing of the aircraft by one of the missiles highly probable, an expert source said. Questions Still Linger Do we know any more than we did hours ago? In spite of various claims and even an alleged admission by Ukraine rebels they did it, the answer is not really. Foreign Policy Magazine discusses the situation in What We Know So Far About the Passenger Jet Allegedly Shot Down Over Ukraine. A spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington declined to comment on charges that pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine shot down a Malaysian Airlines plane. "Why should we comment on allegations?" the official said. The spokesman did however point to an article published by the Russian news service RIA Novosti suggesting that the Ukrainian military shot down the aircraft, not the rebels.Claims and Allegations Rebel tweets claiming acquisition of a Buk system are not believable for two reasons.
Similar questions arise over the assertion rebels claimed responsibility.
It is still entirely possible this was just a jet crash. But if the plane was shot down, then all things considered, Kiev seems more likely than rebels. I am willing to reconsider as evidence comes in. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 17 Jul 2014 10:37 AM PDT Moments ago a Malaysian BA 777 Passenger Jet Crashed in Ukraine. 280 passengers and 15 crew were killed. The plane was at an altitude of about 33,000 feet. According to the Financial Times Anatoly Geraschenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, said in a Facebook posting "Using a zenith-rocket Buk system, the terrorists just downed a passenger airline heading from Kuala-Lampur to Amsterdam". How likely is that statement? Reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian, just pinged me with this comment. The rebels have never claimed to have an air defense system with that kind of altitude capability. Neither have they been known to have shot down any Ukrainian military aircraft flying above 6000 meters. So we are talking some heavy duty weaponry here.Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 Please consider the fate of Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 crashed over the Black Sea on 4 October 2001, en route from Tel Aviv, Israel to Novosibirsk, Russia. The plane, a Soviet-made Tupolev Tu-154, carried an estimated 66 passengers and 12 crew members. No one on board survived. The crash site is some 190 km west-southwest of the Black Sea resort of Sochi and 140 km north of the Turkish coastal town of Fatsa and 350 km east-southeast of Feodosiya, Ukraine.Did Ukraine Do It Again? Like Jacob, I would not be surprised, especially given the rebels do not claim ownership of a missile system capable of hitting that altitude. Repeating my earlier comments before I even heard from Jacob ... "I do not know who is responsible, but it sure seems Ukrainian officials jumped to conclusions, especially since this was the second disaster this year to hit Malaysian Airlines." A shoulder fired missile cannot reach that altitude, but a Buk Missile System could. From Wikipedia The Buk missile system (Russian: "Бук"; beech, /bʊk/ BOOK) is a family of self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air missile systems developed by the former Soviet Union and Russian Federation and designed to engage cruise missiles, smart bombs, fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles. I am not stating Ukraine did this. I am merely asking a question, while pointing out the possibility, and noting they did it once before. As of this moment, the rebels deny responsibility and never claimed ownership of medium range weapons capable of reaching that altitude. Clarification From Jacob The Ukrainians have previously claimed that one or perhaps two of their planes were shot down by the rebels at 6000 meters. To my knowledge, based on their various statements, the rebels have never admitted to shooting down anything over 2500 to 4000 meters (depending on who you listen to), nor have they boasted of that kind of capability. Mish Comment: 4,000 meters is 13123.4 feet, a far cry from 33,000 feet altitude of passenger jets. Update From Jacob Another wrinkle: The Ukrainians had officially closed the airspace over Donetsk and Lugansk on July 8th. The airplane went down over this area. Mish Comment: This is looking more and more like an "inside job" not the work of rebels or Russia as widely presumed. By "inside job" I mean either Ukraine or Malaysian pilot. Update Two Please see Ukrainian Buk Air Defense System Allegedly Deployed Near Donetsk Yesterday; Questions Still Linger Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 17 Jul 2014 09:43 AM PDT A second disaster hit Malaysian Airlines today. Bloomberg reports a Boeing 777 crashed near the town of Torez in eastern Ukraine killing 280 passengers and 15 crew. A Ukrainian Interior Ministry official was quick to point the finger, stating that pro-Russian separatists shot down the passenger jet. The self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic said it did not attack the airplane. The Financial Times has a few more details. A Malaysia Airlines passenger jet has crashed in Ukraine 60km from the border with Russia, ITAR-TASS news agency reported on Thursday.Buk Missile I do not know who is responsible, but it sure seems Ukrainian officials jumped to conclusions, especially since this was the second disaster this year to hit Malaysian Airlines. A shoulder fired missile cannot reach that altitude, but a Buk Missile System could. From Wikipedia The Buk missile system (Russian: "Бук"; beech, /bʊk/ BOOK) is a family of self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air missile systems developed by the former Soviet Union and Russian Federation and designed to engage cruise missiles, smart bombs, fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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