Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• New Rules for Iraqis: Repent or Die, Say 5 Daily Prayers, Women Not Allowed Outside; Grim Massacres
• No Money Down Mortgages Another Sign of Gigantic Credit Bubble in China
• Remaking Iraq

New Rules for Iraqis: Repent or Die, Say 5 Daily Prayers, Women Not Allowed Outside; Grim Massacres Posted: 13 Jun 2014 01:08 PM PDT Al Qaeda forces are within 50 miles of Baghdad. Some reports say 30 miles. Meanwhile,  al-Qaeda forces announce rules for Iraqi territory they now control: Repent or Die. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham has set out a list of rules for residents of Mosul as it seeks to impose its Islamist rules on Iraq's second city. Referring to the area by its ancient name, Nineveh, the group says it has a clear set of instructions for the remaining occupants of the city and surrounding area. Firstly it tells "anyone who is asking," who its members are and what it is about: "We are soldiers of Islam and we've taken on our responsibility to bring back glory of the Islamic Caliphate." All Muslims in the city have been instructed to attend mosque for the five daily prayers. Any one of its members who breach this promise will have their hands cut off. No drugs, no alcohol and no cigarettes All shrines, graveyards and monuments will be destroyed All women must dress in concealing clothing that preserve decency. Females should only go outside "if necessary". Al Qaeda confirms that it seized up to half a billion dollars from the Mosul branch of the Bank of Iraq but states it can be trusted with the funds. ISIS Militants Push Towards Baghdad The Guardian has a Live Blog on the Iraq: reports ISIS Militants Push Towards Baghdad - Live. Interested parties can see gruesome images of heads being cut off and other atrocities on ZeroHedge. Mission Accomplished Thank George Bush for his nation building "mission accomplished". You can also thank former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, warmongers like John McCain, and Hillary Clinton and Democrats who authorized the war. Finally, please thank president Obama for making matters worse. This is what happens when the US goes about nation building, and messing around in the internal affairs of other countries. For further reading ... Iraq Before and After Assessing the Blame for Iraq: Bush, Obama, McCain, Others; Iraq Sunken Costs Remaking Iraq Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

No Money Down Mortgages Another Sign of Gigantic Credit Bubble in China Posted: 13 Jun 2014 08:51 AM PDT China bulls point out that that home prices in China are based on fundamentals and 30% down payments are proof there is no real estate bubble. In reality, much of those "cash" down payments are borrowed in various ways in China's shadow banking system, now estimated at $7 trillion. Bloomberg reports China No-Money-Down Housing Echoes U.S. Subprime Loan Risks China's home buyers are being offered no-money-down purchases in an echo of the subprime lending that triggered a U.S. economic meltdown and the global financial crisis. Deals skirting government requirements for minimum 30 percent down payments have emerged this year from Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the south to Beijing in the north as real-estate sales slump, according to state media and statements by government agencies and developers. "The risk is severe for developers and third parties because there is no commitment from home buyers," said Ding Shuang, senior China economist at Citigroup Inc in Hong Kong. "Zero down payment has appeared in the U.S. before. It basically enabled unqualified people to buy houses," said Ding, who used to work for the International Monetary Fund. "We need to see whether this will become widespread," Ding said. "For now, it seems still sporadic." Sales Sliding The practice threatens to add to the build-up of risks in China's $7 trillion shadow banking industry, with developers or third parties arranging funding to cover down-payment requirements, according to Shen Jianguang, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. China's home sales slid 10.2 percent by value in the first five months of this year, the statistics bureau said today. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index rose 0.3 percent as of 2:09 p.m. local time, paring this year's decline to about 4 percent. In Guangzhou, in the southern province of Guangdong, nearly 20 housing developments rolled out no-down-payment plans to boost sales, Nanfang Daily, Guangdong's official Communist Party newspaper, reported in April, as government agencies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen issued warnings against the practice. "'Zero down payment' can't solve home buyers' problems of shortages of funds, and it has to rely on unconventional practices such as paying the down payment for the customer at high interest, or fraudulently inflating the property price to swindle banks out of loans," the Urban Planning Land and Resources Commission of Shenzhen Municipality said in an April 10 statement. Shadow Banking Credit data released yesterday showed the government reining in shadow banking while allowing higher bank lending to support a faltering economy. New yuan loans exceeded forecasts at 870.8 billion yuan ($140 billion) for May. Poly Real Estate Group Co. is letting buyers delay full down payments at its Central Park development in southeastern Nanjing city, the official China News Service reported June 6. Buyers can pay deposits of 50,000 yuan and then 15 percent of the home price in three months' time. The smallest unit is about 70 square meters and costs about 1.2 million yuan, the report said. Widespread "We need to see whether this will become widespread," Ding said. I propose it already has, that cash down payments are borrowed from friends and families, and besides, China's property bubble is headed for a bigger collapse than 30%. The price of these homes is insane compared to income levels. In that regard, the China bubble is far bigger than the US property bubble. Marc Faber Sees `Gigantic' Credit Bubble in China Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, talk about U.S. initial public offerings by Chinese companies, the economy of China, the outlook for U.S. stocks and bonds, and investment strategy. They speak with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." Faber sees sharp slowdown in China growth, and a "gigantic credit bubble" in China, and a bubble in US equities. I agree on all counts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Remaking Iraq Posted: 13 Jun 2014 12:59 AM PDT A critical reason nation building in Iraq was doomed to fail is easily seen in a History of Kurdistan. In the aftermath of World War I, allies drew borders paying no attention to cultural boundaries, assigning Kurdish areas to the new British and French mandated states of Iraq and Syria. Lovely. So if you do not want to blame Bush, then blame the British. Regardless of who you blame, here is the reality at the moment: Kurdish forces step into security void in disputed Kirkuk Beaming Kurdish fighters were dropped by the busload on the outskirts of Kirkuk on Thursday, eager to defend a city they say is on its way to becoming part of their autonomous region after the Iraqi army left. "The Iraqi army didn't argue, they didn't fight. They left behind their weapons. They didn't even take their uniforms," said Tayeb Younis, a young member of the peshmerga, the autonomous Kurdish region's forces. "We are thrilled – this is a first step to [the city] becoming part of the Kurdish Regional Government." The sudden withdrawal of the central government's army from Kirkuk is another sign of how quickly Iraq could break up into separate sectarian territories of Shia, Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Since militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) seized Mosul on Tuesday, they have advanced to take control of an area that amounts to more than 10 per cent of the country. "The army has collapsed … it is our right to defend this area," said Rawan Mullah Mahmoud, deputy head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party in Kirkuk province. "Iraq has entered a dangerous period and this situation could last a year, at least." The Iraqi army base, the largest in Kirkuk province, had billions of dollars in weapons and equipment, locals say. "About 500 armoured vehicles have been stolen and another 200 were burnt inside," said Mr Younes, the peshmerga fighter, watching the looting frenzy nearby. "We cannot stop it because we don't want to seem like we support the [Iraqi] army, but this could cause problems with the other communities here," he said, referring to the Arab and Turkmen populations. But with Isis moving so quickly, one Arab shopkeeper, Hisham Hashem, said he would accept whoever could keep the streets outside his empty store quiet. "At this point it does not matter to me who takes control, whether it's the army or the peshmerga," he said. Hussein Had Control Recall that Saddam Hussein had control. Now shopkeepers beg for "anyone" to take control. Unfortunately, no one is in control as Iraq Splinters Into Pieces. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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• Your Favorite 90s TV Show Cast Members Today
• You Are Now Entering Brazil!
• The Housing Bounceback [Infographic]

Your Favorite 90s TV Show Cast Members Today Posted: 13 Jun 2014 11:38 AM PDT When you watch a TV show for long enough it's like the characters from your favorite show become your friends. See what your friends look like nowadays. Friends   Boy Meets World Full House Home Improvement Married With Children Saved By The Bell That 70s Show Roseanne Fresh Prince of Bel Air Frasier

You Are Now Entering Brazil! Posted: 13 Jun 2014 11:06 AM PDT Who would have every thought that Brazil could be so strange?

The Housing Bounceback [Infographic] Posted: 13 Jun 2014 09:31 AM PDT The housing market as it currently stands has been quite the uphill battle for some spectators, especially people who are trying to upgrade to a more lavish setting. That said, it would seem that in recent studies within the sector all is not lost within housing and the latest numbers suggest that the market is finally taking a turn for the greater good. The guys at Buy Homes Direct have noticed the difference too, and with that have created a new and intriguing infographic titled "The Housing Bounceback" which shows everyone exactly how well things have actually been from pre-recession to the age of today. For example, were you aware that most if not all regions saw a minimum growth spurt of 1.2%? And that Wales saw a similar amount of growth as both the South West and the West Midlands despite a large range of varied house prices? Read more about this below… Click on Image to Enlarge.   Via buyhomesdirect.co.uk

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