luni, 4 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"No Secret Book" says Luis Barcenas; Another Sideshow Diversion

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 07:09 PM PST

The ongoing political scandal in Spain is unfolding as expected, with a hell of a lot of mud slinging.

In case you are new to the story please consider Ledger Book Shows Rajoy Received 35 Payments Totaling €322,231; Rajoy's Incredulous Denial; Anger Rises

Next consider the amusing threats and carefully-crafted denials of the day as noted by the Huffington Post (Spanish edition) article "No Secret Book".
The PP extesorero exgerente and Luis Barcenas has said on Monday that the secret papers released last week by the newspaper El País are "blatant manipulation".

"There has not been a secret book ", [Barcenas] told Antena 3 on the door of his home, located in one of the most luxurious areas of Madrid. Barcenas has revealed that his lawyers are preparing lawsuits against media outlets that have posted entries.

Within hours of the country publish the secret documents that linked much of the dome of the PP with the collection of bonuses in black, Barcenas issued a statement assuring that in the years when he was manager and treasurer of the PP never realized leaders payments not covered by accounting officially declared , nor was any record of inflows or outflows of funds other than those stated.

FULL STATEMENT OF Luis Barcenas

"Given the news published in different media and particularly in today's edition of the newspaper" El País "hereby means I come to reveal the following:

  1. In the years when I was manager and later treasurer's Party, never carried or me or any other person record of inflows or outflows of funds other than those officially declared by the party.
  2. At least during the said period, never delivered any of the persons mentioned by the newspaper "El País", or any other amounts that have not been appropriately reflected in the only existing accounts in the Party.
  3. Throughout the repeated period, there was also in the party donation or contribution that did not meet any applicable regulations and / or was not properly reflected in the accounts of the Party and entered in the current account of donations.
  4. In strict compliance with the Act, the accounts of the Party was always presented to the Court of Auditors for audit, that court issuing appropriate reports throughout the said period blameless in the matter.
  5. Never in the many years of service I had the honor to play in the Popular Party consented, I hosted or perform any action that might involve a breach of the Act or the strict ethical principles of the Party.
  6. Whenever I tried to act with the utmost transparency in managing revenues and expenses of the party, as I know Lapuerta also made Alvaro, and if I make a mistake-as-I certainly was not getting any money or taking accounting parallel other than the only one existing in the Party.
  7. I reserve all legal actions, civil and criminal, amparen me to the manifest contempt for the truth and to me that is being carried out by those released to the public today falsehoods as those collected by "The Country".
  8. Finally I wish to record my deep expresses regret at the unfair damage you want to do with these false information to people who, with Mariano Rajoy at the front, I've always shown a high moral, professional and personal, blameless.

Mish Comments

  • I accept the fact there is "no secret book". It has been published and thus is no longer a secret.
  • Reserving legal actions is pointless. Unless newspapers knowingly published a false book, charges are ridiculous.
  • If Barcenas can prove he legally acquired the money for the slush fund, he should do so immediately.
  • If Rajoy can prove he paid taxes on the amounts received, he should also do so immediately.

Whether you are new to the story or not, let's review comments I made earlier today in Ledger Book Shows Rajoy Received 35 Payments Totaling €322,231; Rajoy's Incredulous Denial; Anger Rises
Curious Defense

Well here we are again, with a sideshow on whether the money was declared or not. Moreover, and more importantly, with all the names and dates, it should be known 100% without a doubt whether the entries are accurate or not.

If indeed Rajoy, did declare all the income, then it should be easily seen in tax records. So what did Rajoy declare on taxes?

Do the numbers match? If not, why not? Instead we have a pair of sideshows regarding a font and whether or not the money was declared.

If the documents were fake, would the matter need to be studied or would the PP would come straight out and declare, "the documents are fake"?

Moreover, if the documents were fake (and perhaps even if they weren't, it would be in Bárcenas' best interest to challenge their authenticity.

So, where is the statement from Bárcenas that they are fake?

Instead, Bárcenas threatened to set off a political "atom bomb" if convicted. If everyone is innocent, then it is logically impossible to set off a political bomb of any size, let alone an "atom bomb".

Simply put, the denials do not add up.

For more on the scandal, the denials, the "atom bomb" threat, and Rajoy's effort to squash the news, please see Big Brother in Action: EU Wants Power to Sack Journalists; Prime Minister Rajoy Threatens Newspapers Following Corruption Articles.
Another Sideshow Diversion

We now see yet another diversion attempt. This time the diversion is "There has not been a secret book".

This distraction attempt follows Rajoy's diversionary tactic regarding "undeclared money",  preposterous lawsuit threats by Rajoy and Bárcenas, and the PP wanting an investigation to see if the documents are real (even though neither the PP nor Rajoy denied their authenticity).

Once again I point out the laughable notion is that the published Bárcenas documents are fake. Seriously, wouldn't Bárcenas know? And if they were fake, surely Bárcenas would make that claim.

Yet, here we are with the PP demanding an investigation as to whether or not the documents are fake, with denials of "secret" books, and with smoke-blowing lawsuit threats.

The smoke, intimidation tactics, and outright lies have likely just begun. If this all sounds too familiar it's because it is familiar.

Richard Nixon: "I am not a crook".
Bill Clinton: "I did not have sex with that woman".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ledger Book Shows Rajoy Received 35 Payments Totaling €322,231; Rajoy's Incredulous Denial; Anger Rises

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 11:39 AM PST

Rajoy Denies Receiving "Undeclared" Money

After waiting for days to make a statement, prime minister Mariano Rajoy stepped up to the plate with a fuzzy denial on Saturday following an emergency meeting of the Popular Party's executive committee.

"This is all false. I'm not in politics for money. I have never received undeclared money" said Rajoy.

Questions Abound

  • Where did the slush fund money come from?
  • Who were the recipients?
  • What were the totals?
  • Were the payments legal?
  • Did Rajoy really pay taxes on all of it?

The reference to "undeclared money" went away in firmer denial  from Rajoy, "Never, I repeat never, did I receive or hand out black money, not in this party nor anywhere else".

I am not positive of the order of those denials, but based on article timestamps, I believe I have them in the right order.

Adding fat to the denial fire, accounting books allegedly written and kept by Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer, implicate Rajoy personally, to the tune of €322,231.

Meanwhile, anger is mounting and police barricaded the PP headquarters in response to gathering groups of protesters.

Anger Rises

The Financial Times reports Anger rises as scandal rocks Rajoy
Mariano Rajoy waited more than two days to comment on the slush fund scandal threatening to engulf both the Spanish prime minister and his Popular party. When the denial finally came, it was firm and unequivocal. "Never, I repeat never, did I receive or hand out black money, not in this party nor anywhere else," Mr Rajoy declared over the weekend.

Reminding Spanish voters of his decision to drop a lucrative career as a property notary decades ago, Mr Rajoy said on Saturday: "I didn't enter politics to make money. I entered politics losing money."

His assurances, however, did nothing to silence the rising popular anger over alleged secret payments to senior members of Mr Rajoy's centre-right Popular party, which has been rocked by a stream of embarrassing revelations over the past days. Hours after he spoke, riot police cordoned off the streets around the PP headquarters in central Madrid in preparation for the latest in a wave of small but widespread demonstrations against political corruption.

Asked whether they approve of Mr Rajoy, 77 per cent of Spaniards say no. The poll appeared alongside a fresh batch of revelations, after the paper decided to publish extensive excerpts of accounting books allegedly written and kept by Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer. According to the latest report, the books record 35 payments to Mr Rajoy himself worth a total of €322,231 between 1997 and 2008.
Document Snapshot

La Razon reports The PP will commission a survey of the supposed "roles" Barcenas



In the alleged notes of former PP treasurer Luis Barcenas striking that the font is the same for all entries, which would mean that he would have written Barcenas year after year with the same layout. It is as if the author had aimed names and figures in one sitting all data as belonging to different dates and spaced in time.

Documents Real?

Press Euro reports 'The PP demands expert analysis of the Bárcenas documents to prove they are fake'
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's People's Party (PP) wants to submit the original copies of the secret financial notes alleged to have been written by his former treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, to experts in order to determine whether they are genuine.

According to the account records, published by El País, key members of the PP received additional undeclared payments between 1990 and 2008. Mariano Rajoy has said publicly that he has "never" received any undeclared money ...
Curious Defense

Well here we are again, with a sideshow on whether the money was declared or not. Moreover, and more importantly, with all the names and dates, it should be known 100% without a doubt whether the entries are accurate or not.

If indeed Rajoy, did declare all the income, then it should be easily seen in tax records. So what did Rajoy declare on taxes?

Do the numbers match? If not, why not? Instead we have a pair of sideshows regarding a font and whether or not the money was declared.

If the documents were fake, would the matter need to be studied or would the PP would come straight out and declare, "the documents are fake"?

Moreover, if the documents were fake (and perhaps even if they weren't), it would be in Bárcenas' best interest to challenge their authenticity.

So, where is the statement from Bárcenas that they are fake?

Instead, Bárcenas threatened to set off a political "atom bomb" if convicted. If everyone is innocent, then it is logically impossible to set off a political bomb of any size, let alone an "atom bomb".

Simply put, the denials do not add up.

For more on the scandal, the denials, the "atom bomb" threat, and Rajoy's effort to squash the news, please see Big Brother in Action: EU Wants Power to Sack Journalists; Prime Minister Rajoy Threatens Newspapers Following Corruption Articles.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Robot Wars in China; Burger Flipping Robots Serve 360 Gourmet Burgers an Hour

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:04 AM PST

With increasing frequency I see articles on how robots are taking jobs once held by humans. Typically I batch a few of them up for comments, and I have a new set now.

Last week, on the manufacturing front I reported "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots.

Alpha the Custom Burger Flipping Robot

Here is a similar story in the service industry to consider: Robot Serves Up 360 Hamburgers Per Hour
Alpha machine from Momentum Machines cooks up a tasty burger with all the fixins. And it does it with such quality and efficiency it'll produce "gourmet quality burgers at fast food prices."

With a conveyor belt-type system the burgers are freshly ground, shaped and grilled to the customer's liking. And only when the burger's finished cooking does Alpha slice the tomatoes and pickles and place them on the burger as fresh as can be. Finally, the machine wraps the burger up for serving.

Alpha churns out a painless 360 hamburgers per hour. Saving money with Alpha is pretty easy to imagine. You don't even need cashiers or servers. Customers could just punch in their order, pay, and wait at a dispensing window.

For their next model Momentum Machines plans on adding a custom meat grinding feature so it can mix different meats – 1/3 pork, 2/3 bison sounds like a tasty combo – in the same burger. They'll also give it gourmet cooking abilities that seasoned chefs use such as charring the burger while retaining its juiciness.

The company plans on launching the first ever restaurant chain with a cook staff made entirely of robots. But not only might we soon find Alpha's creations at local burger joints, but the company is also targeting convenience stores, food trucks, and somehow even vending machines.

Robot Wars in China

China Daily reports Chinese robot wars set to erupt
Recent research conducted by the consultancy Ernst & Young LLP suggests that the average annual labor cost per worker rose to more than 40,000 yuan ($6,400) in 2011, from less than 25,000 yuan five years ago.

Given the context, it's easy to calculate the tradeoffs of getting a robot. "In fact, industrial robots are already cheaper than workers in China's eastern regions," said Wang Tianmiao, who heads the expert panel of robot technology under the State High-Tech Development Plan.

Wang said a typical industrial robot costs around 300,000 yuan and has annual maintenance costs of 20,000 yuan. The total layout of 500,000 yuan over 10 years is considerably less than that for a 6,000-yuan-a-month technician, and robots can work three times more efficiently.

Technology Kills Middle-Class Jobs

Yahoo! News reports Recession, tech kill middle-class jobs.
Five years after the start of the Great Recession, the toll is terrifyingly clear: Millions of middle-class jobs have been lost in developed countries the world over.

And the situation is even worse than it appears.

Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What's more, these jobs aren't just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren't just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers.

They're being obliterated by technology.

Year after year, the software that runs computers and an array of other machines and devices becomes more sophisticated and powerful and capable of doing more efficiently tasks that humans have always done. For decades, science fiction warned of a future when we would be architects of our own obsolescence, replaced by our machines; an Associated Press analysis finds that the future has arrived.

"There's no sector of the economy that's going to get a pass," says Martin Ford, who runs a software company and wrote "The Lights in the Tunnel," a book predicting widespread job losses. "It's everywhere."

The numbers startle even labor economists. In the United States, half the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained since the recession ended in June 2009 are in midpay industries. Nearly 70 percent are in low-pay industries, 29 percent in industries that pay well.

Experts warn that this "hollowing out" of the middle-class workforce is far from over. They predict the loss of millions more jobs as technology becomes even more sophisticated and reaches deeper into our lives.

The most vulnerable workers are doing repetitive tasks that programmers can write software for — an accountant checking a list of numbers, an office manager filing forms, a paralegal reviewing documents for key words to help in a case. As software becomes even more sophisticated, victims are expected to include those who juggle tasks, such as supervisors and managers — workers who thought they were protected by a college degree.
Seemingly, there is no end to this. Software robots handle voice activated queries and mechanical robots replace humans in manufacturing.

If a job is repetitive and programmable, a robot is out to get it. That even includes minimum wage jobs in manufacturing and in food service.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Russian Girl Tattoos Boyfriends Name On Face

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 04:21 PM PST

Rouslan Toumaniantz is a well known Belgium-based tattoo artist. He met a girl named Lesya, a designer living in Saransk, Russia, on Internet. They fall in love, and about a week ago they met in person in Moscow and decided to get married. Lesya got a facial tattoo with the name Rouslan, that looks more like a MS-13 gang tattoo. What will she do if they would decide to break up?

R2D2 Heels

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 03:57 PM PST

These are the droids, er, shoes you're looking for! They aren't for sale, but you can make your own.
The wide heel of these shoes was removed and replaced with a steel bolt to provide strength and support, but at a fraction of the size. An R2D2 toy covers the heel bolt, and the toes have been decorated with lenses, blue accents, and a blinking red LED to let everyone know just how this droid rolls.







































Via instructables

Super Bowl XLVII and Social Media [Infographic]

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 07:54 AM PST

Social media is buzzing in anticipation of Super Bowl XLVII. Networked Insights analyzed the top themes and conversations happening on social media on this new infographic.

Click on Image to Enlarge.
 
Via networkedinsights

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SEO Blog

SEO Blog

Make Money on the Internet according to Seth Godin

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:43 PM PST

Making money: not by creating an internet company, but using the network as a tool to create value, and then to be paid. Using the Internet as a tool, not as an end. Do it when you're part of a large company or do it when you're a solo artist. The incredible power that...
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YouTube In Your Marketing Strategy

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 11:02 AM PST

If a company can get a large YouTube audience, YouTube can be a very cheap method of advertising. Posting customer testimonials – or even encouraging happy customers to post their own testimonials or product reviews on YouTube – can be an easy way to get positive reviews out in the...
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Three Ways To Use Social Media For Your Small Business

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 10:21 AM PST

Owning a small business can be tough. And getting the word out about your business can be even tougher. With so many companies popping up, you may feel a little lost in the sea of competitors. As just another "fish in the sea," you may be feeling the push to...
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7 Recommended Corporate Giveaways For Your Business

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 05:14 AM PST

Corporate giveaways are gifts which come from business companies. These giveaways are usually given away during corporate events and special occasions like Christmas or valentines. Some companies allot budget for such giveaways every year. The giving away of presents is part of advertisement and is also used to build repertoire....
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How to Moderate Your Blog Comments from Your Desktop

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 03:05 AM PST

Comments are an essential requirement for a blog. They are basically output from the readers to the blog. They are proof that the blog has readers. However, bloggers have lives, too; there are times when they are unable to access their blogs via their browser to check on the comments....
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How to Add a Shopping Cart on WordPress

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 02:54 AM PST

Monetising online is becoming easier by the day, whether it be through e-commerce or revenue from advertising, there are increasingly more and more ways to turn a profit using your online presence. WordPress offers such capabilities; by installing a shopping cart plugin, you can turn your blog into a virtual...
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Is the “Above the Fold” Rule a Myth or Reality?

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 02:47 AM PST

Many marketers believe that the call-to-action, sign-up form, and other important elements of a web page should be located above the fold, or in other words, in the area of a web page that you can see without scrolling. The “above the fold” rule has become so widely accepted that...
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The Benefits of Using Social Media Advertising

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:37 PM PST

At this point in time, just about everyone is hooked to social media. They receive their news updates, entertainment, and the like from many different social media websites. This transforms the Internet into one big market for businesses to set up shop in. Those that do will receive quite a...
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How to SEO Optimize Your Websites Using Articles

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:19 PM PST

Many people who do Internet marketing usually have the mindset that simply whipping up articles and putting them up on a website is good enough to make the website stand out. A lot of people believe that incorporating as many keywords as possible in the articles is a sure fire...
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Online Marketing Trends For 2013

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:16 PM PST

Whether you are an online marketer, or you use online marketing for your business, you need to be aware of some of the big marketing trends for this year. These are some of the top online marketing trends for 2013, and what you can do to catch up with these...
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5 Things You Must Not Do On Your Home Page

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:00 PM PST

The most important page on your web site is the home page. You only get one chance to make a great first impression. If you have an appealing site, visitors will stay around to read, shop, or do whatever you want them to do at your site. If your site...
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12 Things You Need To Know About FaceBook Graph Search

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 07:58 PM PST

You've probably heard of FaceBook Graph Search, FaceBook's new semantic search engine, developed by Lars Rasmussen and Tom Stocky, former Google assets. This search engine focuses on proving answers in natural language than display a bunch of links. Here are several things you absolutely must know about FB Graph Search....
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What Is Web Design

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 07:36 PM PST

In today's connected world, an organization has to pay attention to its website which is a great way to make its brand heard and seen all over the world. A website is akin to having a unique identity and therefore every organization needs to pay complete attention to web design....
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