duminică, 10 iulie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Republicans Likely Blew It

Posted: 10 Jul 2011 08:02 PM PDT

On Friday, Boehner announced there was a 50-50 chance of a major budget deal. On Saturday the picture changed dramatically as Boehner abandoned efforts to reach comprehensive debt-reduction deal.
House Speaker John A. Boehner abandoned efforts Saturday night to cut a far-reaching debt-reduction deal, telling President Obama that a more modest package offers the only politically realistic path to avoiding a default on the mounting national debt.

On the eve of a critical White House summit on the debt issue, Boehner (R-Ohio) told Obama that their plan to "go big," in the speaker's words, and forge a compromise that would save more than $4 trillion over the next decade, was crumbling under Obama's insistence on significant new tax revenue.
I do not know what "significant" means because on Friday Boehner had agreed to some revenue increasing measures.

Sunday Debt Talks Abruptly Abandoned

There was supposed to be 5 hours of negotiation today. Instead it made it to the 90 minute mark, at most. MarketWatch reports U.S. debt talks break up early, to resume Monday.
A closely watched meeting between congressional leaders and President Barack Obama to resolve the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling ended Sunday far more quickly than expected, with no immediate word of progress, according to reports.

The meeting had been projected to last four or five hours, Reuters reported, but subsequent news accounts said the parties met for between 75 and 90 minutes.
Obama Sets 10-Day Deadline, Will Address the Nation

Yahooo Finance reports Obama: 'We need to' work out debt deal in 10 days
Grasping for a deal on the nation's debt, President Barack Obama and congressional leaders remained divided Sunday over the size and the components of a plan to reduce long term deficits. Saying "we need to" work out an agreement over the next 10 days, the president and lawmakers agreed to meet again Monday.

Obama also sought to use the power of his office to sway public opinion, scheduling a news conference for Monday morning, his second one in less than two weeks devoted primarily to the debt talks.

Officials familiar with the meeting said Obama pressed the eight House and Senate leaders Sunday evening to continue aiming for a massive $4 trillion deal for reducing the debt.

But there appeared to be little appetite for such an ambitious plan and the political price it would require to pass in Congress. Instead, House Speaker John Boehner told the group that a smaller package of about $2 trillion to $2.4 trillion was more realistic.

A Democratic official familiar with the session said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., was especially adamant that any deficit reduction package could not contain tax increases and that any new tax revenue would have to be used to pay for other tax benefits.

Obama and the congressional leaders met in the Cabinet Room of the White House for the rare Sunday session. Most appeared in casual Sunday clothes, with open-collared shirts underneath blazers.

When a reporter asked, "Can you work it out in 10 days, sir?" Obama replied, "We need to."

Earlier, White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley said in a television interview that Obama would not "walk away from a tough fight."

"Everyone agrees that a number around $4 trillion is the number that will ... make a serious dent in our deficit," he said.

Geithner cautioned that a package about half the size of the one Obama prefers would be equally tough to negotiate because it, too, could require hundreds of billions in new tax revenue -- anathema to Republicans. Lawmakers said that previous bipartisan talks, led by Vice President Joe Biden, identified a fraction of cuts that would be needed even for the more modest packages.

Even so, Boehner insisted the smaller proposals had more realistic chances of passing. One would call for about $2 trillion in deficit reductions, most accomplished through spending cuts that have been identified but not signed off on by the Biden group.

"I believe the best approach may be to focus on producing a smaller measure, based on the cuts identified in the Biden-led negotiations, that still meets our call for spending reforms and cuts greater than the amount of any debt limit increase," Boehner said.
Disgusting Turn of Events

This turn of events is disgusting. A $2 trillion deal will do absolutely nothing to solve a long-term debt problem.

$2 trillion sounds significant but it is a scant $200 billion a year deal, probably back-loaded at that, while the deficit is $1.4 to $1.6 trillion.

$4 trillion is barely a down payment. Moreover (and again we do not know the details because they were private), but it has been reported that Obama agreed to substantial Medicare and Social Security changes.

This deal fell apart over "significant" revenue raising proposals. Pray tell what is significant? Again, this is a case of not knowing the details, but I do not consider $1 trillion over 10 years, very significant. It is a mere $100 billion a year.

I do not like tax hikes, but we are talking peanuts here. Moreover, Obama's proposal on Medicare and Social Security had Nancy Pelosi howling so loudly that Obama held a private meeting with her.

Anything that has Pelosi that upset, is probably a good deal. When will there be another chance to rein in Medicare?

Once again I am making assumptions because no one has yet revealed what was on the table, but from where I sit, (guessing at proposals), Republicans blew it.

How to Tell if the Deal is a Good One

I wish to emphasize what I said in Boehner says Chance of Budget Deal in Few Days "Maybe 50-50", NYT says Sides Still Far Apart; How to Tell if the Deal is a Good One
Budget Deficit Math

The budget deficit is somewhere between $1.4 and $1.6 trillion a year. Cutting $2 trillion over 10 years is not even a down payment for what needs to happen. Heck, $4 trillion is barely a reasonable down payment.

I much prefer a $4 trillion deal than a $2 trillion one. Then regardless of what the deal is, I would slash another $2 or $3 trillion over 10 years out of defense spending.

Any deal that hits $4 trillion probably will include some small tax hikes. So be it. The ratio of 3-to-1 or 3.5-to-1 budget cuts vs. tax hikes seems like a reasonable compromise to me.

Republicans should take the opportunity to slash $8 trillion ($800 billion a year) out of the deficit if Democrats are willing to stick to those ratios I mentioned.

How to Tell if the Deal is a Good One

The deal will not be a good one if it is all back loaded. Nor will it be a good deal if it cuts less than $4 trillion. We need huge cuts this year and every year forward, not back-loading that may never happen.

Slashing $400 billion would have Krugman whining. Slashing $800 billion would have Krugman and the Keynesian clowns howling like mad.

In general, the louder Krugman howls, the better the deal it will be.

Helping Cities, States, Municipalities

Unfortunately, what I proposed above does nothing for states. Cities, states and local governments need relief as well. The way to help cities and states is to kill collective bargaining for public unions and scrap Davis-Bacon.

Those two acts will lower costs, spur hiring, and reduce layoffs. Unfortunately, those actions do not appear to be under discussion.
Republicans Blew It

There are many things Republicans could have asked for in return for tax hikes. Among there are ending collective bargaining and scrapping Davis Bacon. Had they done that, Democrats may have walked out of the talks and not the other way around.

Instead, had Democrats agreed to my proposal, cities and states would be far better off and Republicans still would have had reductions in Medicare and Social Security in hand.

Thus, Republicans had a no-lose opportunity staring them in the face and kicked it down the drain for ideology that may come back to haunt them.

Three-Fourths of a loaf is better than no loaf at all. Unless there is a major turn of events, Republicans blew it.

Note: within a few minutes of posting I added the word "likely" to the title. We still do not know how this will end, but I do not like the looks of it now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

EU Calls Emergency Meeting on Italy; Don't Worry "It's a Coordination, Not a Crisis"; Short Sellers Blamed; Junckeritis Spreads

Posted: 10 Jul 2011 09:34 AM PDT

In case you missed it, the European debt crisis escalated in Portugal and spread to Italy last week. Here are a few articles if you missed them.


In response, the EU does what it always does.

  1. Blame Short Sellers
  2. Declare an Emergency Meeting
  3. Deny there is an Emergency Meeting


Don't Worry "It's a Coordination, Not a Crisis"

Taking an overdone play straight out of the Jean-Claude Juncker "lie when it gets serious" handbook, European Council President says "It's a coordination, not a crisis meeting."

That is all you need to know to determine a full blown crisis is underway in Italy.

Please consider EU calls emergency meeting as crisis stalks Italy
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis for Monday morning, reflecting concern that the crisis could spread to Italy, the region's third largest economy.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will attend the meeting along with Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the region's finance ministers, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Olli Rehn, the economic and monetary affairs commissioner, three official sources told Reuters.

Van Rompuy's spokesman Dirk De Backer said: "It's a coordination, not a crisis meeting." He added that Italy would not be on the agenda and declined to say what would be discussed.

Shares in Italy's biggest bank, Unicredit Spa, fell 7.9 percent on Friday, partly because of worries about the results of stress tests of the health of European banks that will be released on July 15. The leading Italian stock index sank 3.5 percent.

The market pressure is due partly to Italy's high sovereign debt and sluggish economy, but also to concern that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may be trying to undermine and even push out Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, who has promoted deep spending cuts to control the budget deficit.

"We can't go on for many more days like Friday," a senior ECB official said. "We're very worried about Italy."

Monday's emergency meeting will precede a previously scheduled gathering of the euro zone's 17 finance ministers to discuss how to secure a contribution of private sector investors to the second bailout of Greece, as well as the results of the stress tests of 91 European banks.
Italian Emergency "Coordination" Supersedes Emergency "Coordination" in Greece, Portugal, Spain

The first thing to do in any crisis, before there is time for further "coordination" is to blame short sellers and speculators for the crisis.

True to form, Italy Hurt by 'Irrational Speculation,' Hoyer Tells La Stampa
Italy was the victim of "irrational speculation" in the financial markets last week, German Deputy Foreign Minister Werner Hoyer told La Stampa, saying the country can balance the budget by 2014 and its banks are sound.

Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti "wants to have a balanced budget in 2014, an ambitious but fair goal," Hoyer told La Stampa. "For this reason, I can't see any excuse for irrational speculation of any kind."
Junckeritis Spreads

The proclamation from Hoyer that "Italian banks are sound" gives a strong indication of something most knew anyway: "They aren't."

Thus, it is all too obvious that Hoyer is inflicted with the highly-contagious Junckeritis virus, now rapidly spreading across the EU.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:30 0 comentarii

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

How Google+ Affected Social Shares and +1 Adoption Rates

Posted: 10 Jul 2011 04:41 AM PDT

Posted by dohertyjf

Google announced the +1 button in March much to the enthusiasm and confusion of webmasters and SEOs the world over. "What's the point?", people asked. "Why should I +1 a site? Should I implement it on my site?"

It seems the answer now is clear, with the launch of the Google+ "social experiment" last week that has kept me from getting work done as Google continues innovating and brilliantly drawing me back to Plus everytime that little notification indicator turns red.

I'm not here to talk about that though, because we've put together a bit of data for you today about +1 integration and social sharing statistics. This post originally was conceived by Tom Critchlow and I before Google+ was launched, so it has gone through some iterations.

We wanted to get outside of our typical SEO circles though and see how the general public is adopting the button. To keep things interesting, I also gathered some well-trafficked SEO sites and their social numbers. What I have done is gathered the Technorati Top 100 sites and their RSS feeds. Then I pulled their 20 most recent blog posts (both before and after Plus was announced) and grabbed their +1, Twitter, and Facebook share data thanks to an awesome script by Tom Anthony.

The data got interesting pretty quick. Here are our findings.

Technorati Top 100 Stats

Since we were interested to find the rate of +1 adoption by the Technorati Top 100, we pulled the numbers before Google+ was launched and after. I removed the Gawker sites since their RSS feed is all-encompassing and skewed the numbers terribly. Here are the numbers for the other 95 Technorati sites:

Technorati Top 100 +1 Stats

The numbers changed thus: Pre Google+, only 22 had implemented the +1 button. After the launch of Google+, that number increased to 25. 22 of the sites had +1s, but 8 of those sites did not have the +1 button implemented! These were predominately technology sites, which is no surprise, but also two LA Times blogs (The Opinionator and L.A. NOW) as well as entertainment site TMZ. Takeaway: If you own or have a client who owns a technology, opinion, or entertainment site, you should implement the +1 button.

Average +1s per article, Pre and Post Plus Launch

Average +1s Per Article

As you can see, the average number of +1s per article for the Top 100 almost doubled. The number of +1s per SEO article also increased by about 30%. It is not surprising that SEO sites have more +1s than the Technorati Top 100 on average, but the increase is especially interesting given the next two charts.

Average Facebook Shares per Article and Ratio of Plus to FB Shares

Here are the average shares from the Technorati sites as well as SEO sites:

We must note that the Facebook share numbers went down for the Technorati sites, but increased for the SEO sites. One possible explanation for the SEO sites is that SEOs were sharing Google+ news on Facebook, but this is simply a hunch and not proven. Here is the most interesting statistic I found, the ratio of +1s to Facebook shares on the Technorati sites:

The number was cut almost in half. Perhaps we could guess preliminarily that the launch of Google+ has adversely affected the amount of information shared on Facebook? With the rise of the number of +1s and the decrease in Facebook shares, as shown by the last graph, I think this could be a safe assumption, at least with this limited data set. This graph might also support this hypothesis:

This graph shows that before Google+ was launched, there were 2 Facebook shares for every tweet given to articles on the Technorati Top 100. Post Google+ the ratio is almost even, with tweets being more prevalent than Facebook shares!

What do we do with this data now?

There are certainly some takeaways from the data presented. There are certain niches where it makes sense for us as SEOs to encourage our clients to implement certain sharing features. On other sites, especially in dodgier or more regulated industries, social share buttons do not make as much sense. One of the most interesting bits of information that came out of the data was the number of sites that have +1s, but do not have the button implemented on their site.

  • 10 Technorati sites without the button have +1s; and
  • all of the SEO sites I looked at have +1s, even though only 2/3 have implemented the button.

Based off these discoveries, I'd recommend that if you have an SEO site, it should have a +1 button. Even if +1s do not count for rankings at this point, they are displayed in the SERPs and therefore probably help with click-through rates. If +1s are used for rankings in the future, which I am not convinced of but still remains a possibility, then you will be one step ahead of the curve. Also, if you or a client has a site in one of these niches, you should probably have a +1 button on your site:

  • Technology
  • Opinion (Political or other)
  • Celebrity gossip

This discovery is also interesting because it means that people +1d these from the SERPs, which is something we all wondered how we would do, and more importantly if people would do it. It appears that people do. I think this discovery reinforces that we as webmasters/SEOs (we are often both, after all) need to find ways to track social engagement around our sites. If we see engagement, we need to encourage it. Google has recently helped us accomplish this goal by adding +1 tracking to Analytics.

I'd love to hear your thoughts. Oh, and you can Follow @dohertyjf if you want.

Happy Optimizing!


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Seth's Blog : When did you get old?

When did you get old?

At some point, most brands, organizations, countries and yes, people, start talking about themselves like they're old.

"We can't stretch in that direction," or "Not bad for a 60 year old!" or "I'm just not going to be able to learn this new technology." Even countries make decisions like this, often by default. Governments decide it's just too late to change.

The incredible truth is this: it never happens at the same time for everyone. It's not biologically ordained. It's a choice. It's possible to put out a hit record at 40, run a marathon at 60 and have your 80 year old non-profit change its business model. It's not as easy as it used to be, but that's why it's worth doing.

 

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