Central Perk: 27 sept. 2013

vineri, 27 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 27 Sep 2013 11:57 AM PDT

When asked why he robbed banks, William "Willie" Sutton allegedly replied "because that's where the money is." The story, however, is false.

Although he stole an estimated $2 million over his forty-year career, Horton denied ever saying that. A journalist made it up. His life was quite interesting though, including a stint of commercials for MasterCard, after his parole in 1969.

For further reading, please see some amusing Willie Sutton commentary on Snopes.

For the connection between bank robbery and middle class tax hikes, please consider Congress Dawdles on America's Unsustainable Path by Bloomberg writer Caroline Baum.

Economist Herbert Stein once said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." We're still waiting. As Congress debates yet another short-term continuing resolution to avert a federal government shutdown down on Oct. 1, a grand bargain isn't even on the agenda. The debate that relates to the budget is over the automatic spending cuts to discretionary programs implemented in March. Spending on everything except health-care programs, Social Security and interest on the debt is on track shrink to 7 percent of GDP -- the smallest share since the late 1930s -- from a 40-year average of 11 percent, Elmendorf said. The number of people eligible for Social Security will rise by a third in the next 10 years.

Neither party wants to face reality: Middle-class taxes will have to go up because that's where the revenue is.

The Third Rail

The problem is Republicans refuse to cut defense spending, and Democrats refuse to cut entitlements. Little else matters except scrapping entire programs and neither Democrats nor Republicans seem willing.

Touching social security is considered to be the "third rail" by both parties. In case you do not understand the term, the "third rail" on Chicago's elevated "L" line (and no doubt other electric lines) is the hot one. Touch it and you will be electrocuted.

Republicans had a wonderful chance right before the last presidential election to hold Obama to his pledge to make "tough choices". Instead, they wasted the opportunity with absurd bluffs on shutting down the government.

The only reason we see trivial reductions in increases (not actual cuts), is because of sequestration. Even then, Republicans objected to miniscule cutbacks in the rate of increases in military spending.

Congress vs. Willie Horton

This brings us back to the beginning. What can't go on won't, but "we're still waiting". Yet, I see no reason to believe Republicans will give in on defense cuts and no reason to believe Democrats will cut entitlements.

So, if the setup is truly unsustainable, what's it going to be? The answer is middle class tax hikes, because "that's where the money is".

Willie Sutton was honest in his denial. Don't expect the same from Congress or state legislatures, especially Democratic strongholds like California and Illinois.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

IMF Proposes Eurozone Fiscal Union, Banking Union, Harmonized Employment, Common Unemployment Scheme, Firewall Tax

Posted: 27 Sep 2013 11:28 AM PDT

In the biggest nannycrat proposal ever, the IMF announced it's vision for the United States of Europe (without using that name to describe the proposal).

Via translation from El Pais, please consider IMF suggests common unemployment benefits for the eurozone.

The IMF proposes more discipline, more fiscal integration, and the creation of a common unemployment benefit and risk sharing scheme to help the club of countries that have experienced damage in this crisis currency.

Fund staff argues that ommon fiscal governance, along with the banking union, are necessary to offset the "weaknesses in the architecture" of the eurozone, reinforce the club of 17 to future crises. In addition, the study argues that the most urgent step to acquire banking union goes through a firewall overall tax.

The pillars of a fiscal union , according to IMF staff, go through a series of mechanisms to pool the risks and avoid further costly bailouts, always subject to greater fiscal discipline. The tighter control over public finances of each country, which occur revenues and expenditures, is the condition of these forward-looking statements, both from the point of view of the IMF and Brussels.

Obedience and monitoring standards would allow the creation of a liquidity fund for troubled countries including a common unemployment benefit or "rainy day fund".

This fund would be nurtured with an amount equivalent to between 1.5% and 2% of the GDP of member countries, which is in line for a fund with Germany for its most troubled regions.

Harmonisation of Employment

But there is much work ahead for something like a common shutdown could crystallize into a eurozone labor markets as diverse. "A common insurance scheme would require a minimum of harmonization in taxation of employment plus pension rights, which would be a positive step towards a single labor market," the report warns.

The fiscal integration also requires a kind of Eurobonds or form of joint financing, led by the center of power and backed by global revenue, which would be possible once common tax structure is already underway.

A single monitoring mechanism should complement a firm commitment to establish a strong firewall " to anchor confidence in the banking system. " And this will require common money too: "While some insurance against banking fiascos be funded by the industry itself, a common fund for recapitalization, liquidation and deposit guarantee would reduce the risk of infection."

The True Vision - A United State of Europe

That is the most comprehensive vision for the United States of Europe we have seen yet. And I propose an immediate up-or-down vote, right now, in all of the 17 member countries.

I am quite sure the unemployed in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy will be 100% in favor of a common unemployment scheme, especially if Germany would foot the bill. And France would always vote for more taxes as a matter of course, the bigger the tax hikes the better.

Common work rules would have to be along the lines of the French work rules of course. And who could possibly be against common pension schemes at the expense of Germany and the Northern European countries?

The more I think about this the more perfect the proposal is. It is complete with every nuance the nannycrats want. So let's not delay. We need an up-or-down vote right now, not by the governments of each country, but rather by the citizens of each county who can decide if they like all of the proposed benefits and taxes necessary to make the United States of Europe work.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Next time someone tells you they don't understand Obamacare:

Hello, everyone --

The Affordable Care Act. Health Reform. Obamacare. Whatever you'd like to call it, it's going mean something very tangible for millions more Americans in just four days.

Starting October 1 -- that's next Tuesday -- Americans who need or want health insurance will be able to be able to go to healthcare.gov. They'll be able to compare plans based on their needs, and they'll be able to sign up for quality, affordable health coverage.

There are folks out there with questions about what this law means for them. It's on all of us to make sure those questions are answered. That's the only way this is going to work.

Our team has put together a great video that unpacks the law, piece by piece, in an incredibly simple way. It explains exactly what October 1 is going to mean for those millions of folks who need coverage.

Take a look, but don't let it stop with you. We all know at least one person who either doesn't have insurance, or wants to know more about the law. Forward this on to other folks who you know need to see it.

You've probably heard about the 3.1 million young adults who have gained coverage through their parents' plans, the 6.3 million seniors who are paying less for prescription drugs, and the more than 100 million Americans who have gotten free preventative care like mammograms and cancer screenings.

Right now, the best thing we can do is make sure that, ahead of October 1, we don't let valuable information like this die in our inboxes. So don't let it happen. Start talking to your friends, your coworkers, your family members. Answer their questions. Make sure they know how to get covered, and then ask them to help others get covered.

That starts with sharing this video, right now, with the folks you know need to see it:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/what-obamacare-means-you

Let's get to it.

Thanks,

David

David Simas
Deputy Senior Advisor
The White House
@Simas44

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Have Questions About Obamacare?

The Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) means better coverage for those who already have health insurance, and more options for those who don’t -- including a new way to shop for affordable, high-quality coverage.

We put together a White House White Board that helps explain the benefits of the law, and what Obamacare will mean for you.

Watch the latest White House White Board and learn more.

Setting Goals (Not Tools) as the Foundation of Your Marketing - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 26 Sep 2013 04:13 PM PDT

Posted by MackenzieFogelson

With new tools introduced so regularly, it's easy for marketers to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to figure out which ones are most effective for their own work. That focus, though, shifts our attention from what really matters: setting the right goals for our companies. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Mackenzie Fogelson walks us through the five-stage process she uses to make sure her team's attention is on what really matters.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Hey there, Moz community! I'm so excited to be here with you today. I wanted to share something with you that has been really powerful for the businesses we've been working with in the last year or so about building community. It's a concept that we call "goals not tools," and it works in this pyramid format where you start with your goals, you move on to KPIs, you develop a strategy, you execute that strategy, and then you analyze your data. And this is something that has been really powerful and helped businesses really grow. So I'm going to walk you through it here.

We start down at the bottom with goals. So the deal with goals is that you want to make sure that you're setting goals for your entire business, not just for SEO or social media or content marketing, because you're trying to grow your whole business. So keep your focus there. Then once you develop your goals, and those goals might be to improve customer communication or you want to become a thought leader. Whatever your goal is, that's where you're going to set it.

Then you move on to determining what your key performance indicators are and what you're going to use to actually measure the fact that you may or may not be reaching your goals. So in terms of KPIs, it's really going to depend on your business. When we determine KPIs with companies, we sit down and we have that discussion with them before we develop the strategy, and that helps us to have a very authentic and realistic discussion about expectations and how this is all going to work and what kind of data they're expecting to see so that we're proving that we're actually making a difference in their business.

So once you've determined those KPIs, then you move on to developing a creative strategy, a creative way to meet those goals and to measure it the way you've determined in your KPIs. So this is your detailed roadmap, and it's two to three months at a time. A lot of companies will go for maybe 12 months and try to get that high level overview of where they're going for the year, and that's fine. Just make sure that you're not detailing out everything that you're doing for the next year because it makes it harder to be agile. So we'd recommend two- to-three month iterations at a time. Go through, test things, and see how that works.

During your strategy development you're also going to select the tools that you're going to use. Maybe it's Facebook, maybe it's SEO, maybe it's content marketing, maybe it's email marketing, PPC. There's all kinds of tools that could be used, and they don't all have to be digital. So you just need to be creative and determine what you need to plan out so that you can reach the goals that you've set.

Then once you've got your strategy developed, that's really some of the hardest part until you get to execution. Then you're actually doing all the work. You need to be consistent. You need to make sure that you're staying focused and following that strategy that you've set. You also want to test things because you want as much data as possible so that you can determine if things are working or not. So make sure that during execution there are going to be things that come up, emergent things, shiny things, exciting things. So what you'll have to do is weigh whether those things wait for the next iteration in two to three months, or whether you deviate your plan and you integrate those at the time that they come up.

So once you're through execution, then really what you're doing is analyzing that data that you've collected. You're trying to determine: Should we spend more time on something? Should we pull something? Should we determine if something else needs to completely change our plans so that we're making sure that we're adding value? So analysis is probably the most important part because you're always going to want to be looking at the data.

So in this whole process, what we always do is try to make sure that we're focusing on two questions, and the most important one is: Where can we add more value? So always be thinking about what you're doing, and if you can't answer the value question, you know, "Why are we doing this? Does this provide value for our customers or something internal that you're working on? If you can't answer that question, it's probably not something valuable, and you don't need to spend your time on it. Go somewhere else where you're adding the value.

Then the last question is where you can make the biggest difference in your business, because that's what this is all about is growing your business. So if you stay focused on goals, not tools, it's going to be really easy to do that.

Thanks for having me today, Moz. Hope I helped you out. Let me know in the questions if you need any assistance.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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On Our Wait-List? You Get a Moz Analytics!

Posted: 26 Sep 2013 05:01 AM PDT

Posted by Anthony Skinner

It is with great pleasure that I announce the wait is over! That's right, we are now letting people from our wait-list into Moz Analytics!

In many ways, I feel like a not-as-cute version of Oprah Winfrey. I may not be worth 77 million dollars, and I am not giving you a car, but it does feel good to give new subscribers who patiently waited a 30-day free trial of Moz Analytics! Over the next few weeks we will be sending emails inviting people to try out the tools. The invitation is good for seven days, so when you see the email, make sure you click the link and join us right away.

If you're not on our wait-list, you've still got time to get early access. Just head over and sign up!

Before too long, we will open Moz Analytics free trials to the general public. We plan to release improvements and fixes to Moz Analytics every 2-4 weeks. Have questions about the application? Feel free to check out the Moz Help Hub. Feedback or suggestions? Check out the feature request forum.

Otherwise, sit back and enjoy your new ride.

Anthony Skinner
CTO and Oprah Impersonator

Seth's Blog : The merchants of average

The merchants of average

They will push you to fit in, to dress alike, to use the same tools, to fit the format.

They are the high school English teacher in love with his rubric and the book editor who needs you to fit in with the program. "That's the way we do things around here." They are the well-meaning productivity guru who wants you to get faster, not better, and the social media consultant who is driving with his rear-view mirror.

The safest thing you can do, it seems, is to fit in. Total deniability. Hey, I’m just doing what the masses do.

The masses are average. And by definition, we have a surplus of average.

Don’t be different just to be different. Be different to be better.