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joi, 23 septembrie 2010

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

So You Call Yourself an Analyst? Part 1: Asking the Right Questions

Posted: 22 Sep 2010 01:13 PM PDT

Today I am going to talk about something that plagues companies and consultants everywhere--half baked analysis. It's something we've all done at some point, and something a lot of us still do on a regular basis. It's unfortunate because as online marketers we all understand the power of good data mining, but time and time again we revert to generic inquiry, at best, and default report templates.

Disclaimer: Origionally I attempted to write about the five steps I follow for solid data analysis in one post, but as I approached my 6th page of content, I realized it may be best to break up into a series.

Alas, this will be the first of three posts, tackling a five-step process toward good data analysis. The three topics are:

Asking the Right Questions
Identifying What is Going Wrong
Turning Data Into Action

Yup that's right...cancel that afternoon meeting because you my friend are going to be stoked about data analysis in 3...2..1...

Rethinking the Questions

A few weeks ago at our SEOmoz PRO Seminar I spoke on "Analyzing What Matters & Ignoring the Rest" and I challenged the attendees to rethink the questions that guide their data research. Too often we get caught up in asking questions that simply put-- don't really matter. Let me explain. It will always be important to know things like "How much has traffic increased" and "What referrers are performing better this month," but this sort of inquiry does not qualify as marketing analysis.

Sure it's valuable to report that to your clients or boss, but as an analyst you are tasked with much more. You are tasked with finding things others can't. You are expected to dive into the data head first and find issues before they become huge problems. You are also responsible for finding opportunities a.k.a. the "game changer" for your company...that is your job. If you don't like the way that sounds, please stop calling yourself an analyst. You are stressing me out.

So what questions should you be asking? Bigger ones to start.

I know they sound uber-top level, but don't roll your eyes just yet. I challenge each of you to write these out and really think about the answers. I think you'll be surprised with what you come (or can't come) up with. I'm going to apply this to SEOmoz as an example.

An outsider would look at our site and say we are -

Trying to sell PRO memberships
An increase or decrease in completed goals would show us if we are being successful
Losing traffic to our sign-up page, and a lower traffic count would be detrimental to our success

Well that is great, but honestly SEOmoz can't succeed solely on increasing PRO memberships. The truth is, there is a lot more to it than that. We have a recognized brand with expectations on it, and a community of over 200,000 people that come to us for the latest SEO information on the web. We can't afford to lose ground on either of those two. These are defining qualities of SEOmoz, and strong advantages over our competitors. So my three questions would leave me more complex answers, something like this:

Increase organic traffic on "Learn SEO" type queries, increase branded term searches, increase YOUmoz member engagement, and increase signups
More referrals from links to our resources, more traffic from people researching SEO, more YOUmoz submissions, more comments, improved engagement metrics on site, higher sign up attempts, higher signup completions, etc.
Decline in branded term searches, decline in organic traffic to resource pages, decline in time on site for YOUmoz members, etc.

So now what? You are left with a handful of metrics to investigate. Those metrics should be the base of your analysis efforts. I urge all of you to revisit the reasons why you analyze what you analyze, you'll be surprised to learn that you don't really have a good reason most of the time. After you have your new questions nailed down and you know what metrics you want to analyze, it's time to jump in the data.

Start Macro and Go Micro

This is when I highly suggest you fill your coffee cup, or grab another Red Bull. I also support locking your office door, or putting up a "Do Not Disturb, I am Data Mining You Silly Non-Analyst" sign up on your cubicle. Okay anyway...so the main roadmap to solid analysis includes five steps and they are:

*Please note that Analyze, Value, and Action will be covered in upcoming posts in this series.

What Do We Mean by Macro Analysis?

Macro analysis means you have a solid understanding of the different sections of your site, the different user types that navigate it, and the top-level metrics. You should know these like the back of your hand. In addition to knowing these actual numbers you should know their rate of change (how often does that data point change), the depth of change (how extreme are those changes--big jumps? small steps?), and the way they interact (is there a consistent relationship between two metrics--one goes up/down, the other will too). If this sounds like a lot to continuously track, you are right. Good analysis is a lot of work. Thankfully SEOmoz pays me in cupcakes, and Champagne Wednesdays, I highly suggest negotiating for these perks ;)

At SEOmoz we track our top sections by week, so we can easily identify shifts in the data, and it looks something like this:

(A portion of our weekly analysis for full site stats)

You can see we aren't just looking at our homepage, we are looking at our subdomains, our highest trafficked sections. We also are going beyond visitors, we are pulling top-level stats like pages/visit, time on site, bounce rates, etc. This graph goes around to the entire company once a week. This macro level view helps all of us understand the momentum of our site's growth. It helps us easily isolate problem areas so we can address them before they grow into huge "Oh sh*t" moments. Trust me when I say, if you aren't tracking your data at this macro level, you should start today.

What Do We Mean by Micro Analysis?
This part of the puzzle is the one that most people skip over. Micro analysis means you don't just have a sense how your blog's traffic is doing you know how many comments you get on it, how long they spend on it, how deep they go into your site after reading a post, and how many of your blog visitors end up converting for you. In short, micro analysis means you look at all those secondary data points that you can actually manipulate.

While it's great to go into work on a Monday and say I want to increase traffic to my blog by 20%, it is a big feat to accomplish. Not only will it take a lot of time conceptualizing, writing and sharing that content, it will also, most likely, be less lucrative than if you took the existing traffic and increased its conversion rate by 5%. That sort of move is done by honing in on data at a micro analysis level.

Specifically this is where things like event tracking in Google Analytics and deeper dives into your preferred analytics package come in handy. Everyone has their own approach for micro analysis, but I think a good place to start is see where successful events (downloads, subscriptions, sign-ups, conversions, etc.) are taking place and see if you can come up with common demoninators. If you see that successful pages all have one or more thing in common, you can start testing these on other sections to increase conversions across your whole site. Here is an example of what we pull for SEOmoz:

(A portion of our micro tool usage analysis report)

We can see which tools are performing the best, and analyze those pages to see if we can isolate out page tweaks to roll out across all tool pages. It seems simple, but way too often analysts look into analytics to see how they are doing, and fail to put in the time required to uncover what they could be doing for increased success. You should know, for every single section and user type on your site, what makes it "successful." You need to be tracking these "successes" as closely as you would your visitor count.

Well this post got a little long, but I really wanted to give you guys some real examples on how I approach data analysis both at the macro and micro level. Hopefully, you can take some of this and apply it right away. I know we all have our own unique approach to analysis, and I'd love to hear yours in the comments below!

Next post I will be talking about the "analyze" step of a solid analysis strategy. That post will hone in on quick ways to figure out what is going wrong. I will talk about some GA features that you can use to make your analysis more effective and less time consuming. So stay tuned!

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Daily Snapshot: President Obama Addresses U.N. General Assembly

Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, September 23, 2010

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama greets guests during a discussion on health care reform and the Patient’s Bill of Rights at the Brayshaw residence in Falls Church, Va., September 22, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Chuck Kennedy)

View more photos.

Today's Schedule

In the morning, the President will address the United Nations General Assembly. The President will then hold a bilateral meeting with Premier Wen Jiabao of China. In the afternoon, the President will attend a luncheon hosted by the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon.

The President and First Lady will join President Bill Clinton to address the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI). Later, the President will hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan. In the evening, the President and the First Lady will host a reception in honor of heads of delegation attending the United Nations General Assembly.

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

8:30 AM: The Vice President attends an event for Senator Barbara Mikulski

10:00 AM: The President addresses the United Nations General Assembly

11:00 AM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with Premier Wen Jiabao of China

11:30 AM: The Vice President and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius host a conference call with senior citizens from across the country (audio only)

12:30 PM: The Vice President meets with British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg

1:15 PM: The President attends a luncheon hosted by United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon

2:15 PM: The Vice President meets with the recipients of the Secretary of Defense Employer Support Freedom Award

3:50 PM: The President and the First Lady join President Bill Clinton to address the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative

5:10 PM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan

7:15 PM: The President and the First Lady host a reception in honor of heads of delegation attending the United Nations General Assembly

Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

Seth's Blog : The Mesh is here (don't miss it)

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The Mesh is here (don't miss it)

My friend Lisa Gansky has a new book out today. You can read a bit about it here.

I hope you'll buy a copy right now. It's that important and that valuable.

Gansky has written the most insightful book about new economy business models since The Long Tail, and if you're not facile in understanding and working with the key concept behind this book, it's going to cost you time and trouble.

In short, the Mesh outlines how sharing resources and information creates an entirely new class of commerce. When you travel to another city, you don't buy a house. You stay in a hotel. A hotel, because it allows hundreds of people a year to share a single room, is a mesh business.

The thing is, the web has created thousands (probably more) of these businesses in areas you have never thought about. Zipcar, sure, and Netflix. But in all sorts of nooks and crannies as well. Lisa's online directory already lists thousands of these companies. Existing companies need to know about this, job seekers should be attracted to it, and for entrepreneurs, it really is a new frontier.

Go, hurry, the race is on. $16 well spent.

• Email to a friend •

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Seth's Blog : "I need you to see things my way"

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

"I need you to see things my way"

And that's the frustration of the marketer or the artist who hasn't figured out how to navigate critics and the marketplace.

If you need the validation and acceptance and patronage of everyone you meet, you'll get stuck, and soon. Everyone isn't going to get it. Everyone isn't even going to get you, never mind what you sell.

Experienced marketers and artists and those that make change understand that the new is not for everyone. In fact, it's not even for most people. Pass them by. They can catch up later.

It's not a referendum, and you don't need a unanimous vote of acclamation. No, you merely need enough to stay in business, to keep moving, to make a dent. And then your idea can spread.

If the kids in the back of the bus/audience/store don't get it (or don't get you) it's their loss. Focus on those that want to celebrate the work you do instead.

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miercuri, 22 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

88% of Americans say "Now is a Bad Time to Find a Quality Job"
Reading Between The Lies
Curve Watcher's Anonymous Investigates the Question "Is the Bond Bull Dead?"

88% of Americans say "Now is a Bad Time to Find a Quality Job"

Posted: 22 Sep 2010 07:44 PM PDT

The vast majority of Americans think this is a bad time to find a quality job. It's been that way since early 2008 when the number first touched 70%.

Please consider Recession or Not, U.S. Job Market Woes Persist.

Even as Wall Street rallies on the National Bureau of Economic Research announcement that the recession ended in June 2009, Gallup finds -- more than a year later -- that 88% of Americans believe now is a bad time to find a quality job.

Here's the question: "Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say now is a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?"

The percentage of Americans holding these views about finding a quality job is as high now as it was a year ago, and higher than it was at this time in 2008, when the recession was fully underway.

Unemployment Rate Increasing

The unemployment rate component of Gallup's underemployment measure continues to rise, with the latest 30-day average hitting 9.7% (not seasonally adjusted) on Tuesday, Sept. 20 -- up from 9.4% last week, 9.3% in August, and 8.9% at the end of July.

Underemployment was also up during this period, reaching 18.8% on Sept. 20 -- increasing from 18.6% readings last week and in August, and 18.4% at the end of July.

Flawed Binary Choices

Unfortunately we do not have a real measure of changes over time in regards to how hard it is to find a quality job because the question only offered a binary choice.

A far better question would have allowed a range of options such as ...

Very good time
Good time
Neither good nor bad time
Bad time
Very bad time

The flaw helps explains the virtual flatline starting in late 2008. Nonetheless, the answers are not encouraging and the overall response certainly does not suggest consumers are about to go on a spending spree.

Unemployment Ticks Higher

One reason Gallup's unemployment numbers vary from the BLS numbers is the latter seasonally adjusts numbers while Gallup does not. This is not a flaw, but it does make comparisons different. Another reason the numbers may differ is the BLS excludes those who want a job but has not looked for one. This is an arguable flaw in the reported BLS number.

Furthermore, it would be far more helpful if Gallup posted numbers from a year ago for comparison purposes. Nonetheless, rising numbers are consistent with the vast majority of economic headlines as well as the Fed's panic unemployment statement on jobs as translated in Reading Between The Lies.

I expect to see unemployment make news highs later this year or next. That's when panic statements are likely to translate into panic actions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Reading Between The Lies

Posted: 22 Sep 2010 12:13 PM PDT

On August 27, 2010 in a much Ballyhooed Speech at Jackson Hole, Bernanke said

The Committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly.

The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation. We do. As I will discuss next, the issue is instead whether, at any given juncture, the benefits of each tool, in terms of additional stimulus, outweigh the associated costs or risks of using the tool.

The FOMC will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction. Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation. It is worthwhile to note that, if deflation risks were to increase, the benefit-cost tradeoffs of some of our policy tools could become significantly more favorable.

The Federal Reserve is already supporting the economic recovery by maintaining an extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy, using multiple tools. Should further action prove necessary, policy options are available to provide additional stimulus. Any deployment of these options requires a careful comparison of benefit and cost.

Really?!

In light of yesterday's FOMC Statement inquiring minds are asking four key questions.

1. Did the economic conditions "deteriorate significantly"?

2. Is deflation a significant risk?

3. Does the Fed "have the tools"?

4. Did the Fed do a "careful comparison of benefit and cost" for further quantitative easing?

Answers

1A. Of course they did. You can see it in the Philly Fed index, in Housing, and in numerous other indicators. The only outlier was last month's ISM. The problem is the Fed does not admit conditions have deteriorate significantly. Instead the Fed talks of a slowdown and uses words like "sluggish". The Fed always pretends conditions are better than they are so as not to alarm the markets. In response, people rightfully accuse the Fed of telling lies.

2A. Deflation is not a risk per se. We are in deflation as measured by credit. Deflation is the result of piss poor economic policies by the Greenspan Fed, the Bernanke Fed, numerous banks and lenders, and Congress. The threat is not deflation, a much needed event. The threat is further insane policy actions by the Fed and Congress hoping to stave off the inevitable credit collapse.

3A. Clearly the Fed does not have the tools. If they did, we would not be in this mess in the first place! It's hard to say if Bernanke's statement is an outright lie or if he is delusional enough to believe the nonsense he is spouting. The safe action here is to assume Bernanke is a delusional liar.

4A. Clearly the answer is no.

Jackson Hole vs. Tuesday's FOMC Statement

Let's compare the key points above with select highlights from yesterday's FOMC statement.

Supposedly

"Household spending is increasing gradually"
"Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year"
"Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months"

That does not look like rapid deterioration. That looks like slow improvement.

However, we do see this new statement thrown in out of the blue "Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability."

Skilled Translation of Blatant Lies

My friend "HB" is very skilled at reading between the lies. He offers this accurate Translation of the FOMC Announcement, September 21.

FOMC: "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months."

Translation: "As far as we can tell, the economy is still up sh*t creek without a paddle."

FOMC: "The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term."

Translation: "We have no clue what is going to happen next."

FOMC: "The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate."

Translation: Translation: "We'll keep our eyes fastened on the rear-view mirror, and stand ready to inflate even more at the drop of a hat. We already said that, but want everyone to rest definitely assured on that point."

The mandate, the mandate…they're mentioning it again here. The Fed has of course an impossible mandate – to keep the value of the currency stable and to keep unemployment low at the same time, all by tweaking a short term interest rate – it is patently absurd.

In reality, it can do neither the one nor the other – not to mention the fact that 'price stability' is not even a worthwhile goal. The price stability policy has enabled the biggest credit bubble in all of human history which in turn nearly destroyed the economy. It is high time it was thoroughly reviewed.

Reading between the lies is a fine art.

Please see the article for more select quotes and their true meaning.

Gold Monthly

By the way, there is someone else very adept at leading between the lies. I just happen to have a select quote handy.

It seems to me that gold does not believe the horse hockey spewing from Bernanke's mouth anymore than I do.

Just yesterday I was asked

Mish, your comment about gold doing well in times of economic stress is exactly the opposite of Robert Prechter's view. One of you is right and the other is wrong.

"Gold tends to be strong as long as the economy is expanding, per the study in the March 2008 issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist" Sept. 17th Elliott Wave Theorist, also Dec. 2003 EWT.

What do you say?

My response was "Who does it look like is right?"

Note that gold fell from 850 to 250 over a 20 year period with inflation every step of the way. Prechter is simply wrong.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Curve Watcher's Anonymous Investigates the Question "Is the Bond Bull Dead?"

Posted: 22 Sep 2010 03:30 AM PDT

Curve Watcher's Anonymous is looking at various long-term and intraday charts of treasuries and the stock market following Tuesday's FOMC meeting.

$TNX: 10-Year Treasury Yield Intraday Chart

Click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Note the initial spike higher in yields right on the announcement. This headfake is very typical of FOMC announcements.

SPY: S&P 500 Index Shares Intraday Chart

As with treasuries, the S&P 500 had an initial spike that quickly reversed. Both charts show fat tails.

Ultimately the rally failed (which would be typical given the flight to safety trade in treasuries).

Every FOMC meeting it seems we get the same fake reaction: The first move is typically a false move. Sometimes there is a double fake, but only rarely does the initial move keep on going. I would be interested to see comments on this.

Given that I seldom concern myself with intraday or even short-term action however, the more serious question is "Where to from here?"

2-Year Treasuries vs. the S&P 500

The pattern may not continue, but for quite some time rising treasury yields have generally been directionally aligned with rising equities. In three instances (the first three red boxes), a drop in treasury yields preceded (led) a subsequent drop in equities. The fourth box (where we are now) is unresolved.

2-Year Treasuries - Monthly Chart

Two year treasury yields have fallen to a record low, yet stocks have been rising.

5-Year Treasuries - Monthly Chart

The all time low in 5-year treasury yields is but a stone's throw away.

10-Year Treasury Yields - Monthly Chart

New lows in 10-year treasury yields are in sight.

To help put things into perspective here is a weekly chart of $TYX 30-year treasuries, $TNX 10-year treasuries, $FVX 5-year treasuries, and $IRX the 3-month treasury discount rate. The other symbols are yields.

$TYX, $TNX, $FVX, $IRX Weekly Chart

The chart depicts weekly closing values.

Is the Bond Bull Over?

Judging from 2-year treasuries or 5-year treasuries, pronouncements of the "death of the bond bull" were certainly premature. Moreover, given how weak the economy is, I think it is odds-on the 10-year treasury note touches if not breaks the previous yield lows.

Only the 30-year long bond yield seems reluctant to drop. It may not make it.

Regardless, no matter how you look at things, the treasury bull is nearing its end. 30 years is a long run!

However, bull markets tend to end in love affairs. That's how tops are made. Currently, nearly everyone despises treasuries except the banks and foreign central banks.

As long as sentiment stays negative on treasuries, there is room for long-dated treasuries to rally. There will be a time to short treasuries, but now does not seem like it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

joi, 23 septembrie 2010

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

Daily Snapshot: President Obama Addresses U.N. General Assembly

Seth's Blog : The Mesh is here (don't miss it)

The Mesh is here (don't miss it)

More Recent Articles

Seth's Blog : "I need you to see things my way"

"I need you to see things my way"

More Recent Articles

miercuri, 22 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Arhivă blog

joi, 23 septembrie 2010

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miercuri, 22 septembrie 2010

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