Central Perk

duminică, 26 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Prepare for Currency/Trade Wars; How Might China Respond to US Tariffs?
Community Bank Director Chimes In Regarding Small Business Lending
Sunday Funnies 2010-09-26 Suck It Up Buddy; Protesting Nonunion Wages; Virtual Sports Fans

Prepare for Currency/Trade Wars; How Might China Respond to US Tariffs?

Posted: 26 Sep 2010 06:21 PM PDT

Patience of US legislators regarding the value of the Yuan has finally given out. Last Friday, Congress jumped into the fray after exceptionally harsh statements from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who up until now had always preached diplomacy. Here is a brief sequence of events.

Patience Runs Out

MarketWatch reports Patience runs out on quiet diplomacy on China currency.

Sept. 15, 2010
Patience appears to have run out in Washington for the standard White House approach that favors quiet diplomacy for dealing with China over the dispute over the value of its currency.

In testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee, a wide array of experts said that quiet diplomacy has essentially been a failure. The only debate at the hearing was what new approach should be tried.

Geithner Enters the Battle

One day later Geithner calls for faster yuan appreciation

Sept. 16, 2010
"China needs to allow significant, sustained appreciation over time to correct this undervaluation and allow the exchange rate to fully reflect market forces," Geithner said in testimony prepared for the Senate Banking Committee. Geithner will also talk about the yuan with the House Ways and Means Committee this afternoon.

"It is past time for China to move," Geithner said.

An undervalued yuan has helped China to boost exports and encouraged U.S. companies to outsource manufacturing to China from the U.S., Geithner said. He added that the yuan is held at a undervalued level by "heavy intervention" even as Chinese officials have pledged to allow the yuan's value to be guided more by market forces.

China Rebuffs Geithner

Responding to Geithner China says it won't repeat Japan's mistake

Sept. 20, 2010
China pledged not to repeat Japan's mistake and allow its currency to rise in response to foreign pressure, countering criticism from U.S. lawmakers that the yuan is undervalued amid a growing cross-Pacific row over Beijing's currency regime.

"China will not go down the path that Japan did and give in to foreign pressure on the yuan's exchange rate," Li Daokui, an economist and member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, was cited as saying in a report by the state-run China Daily.

Li's comments appeared to reference to the 1985 Plaza Accord that resulted in coordinated government intervention in the currency markets to bring down the value of the U.S. dollar amid concerns over a ballooning trade deficits with its most important trading partners.

There's growing concern in Beijing that the strong-yen agreement doomed Japan's economy.

Attracted by the appreciating yen, cash flowed into Japan in the late 1980s, resulting in loose monetary conditions that helped fuel a bull market in stocks and real estate. The resulting asset bubble burst in 1990, followed by two decades of economic stagnation in Japan.

"But what has the US done to reduce its trade deficit?" Li said. "The US should pay much more attention to its own problems."

Congress Risks Trade War

Geithner's sounding off and the rebuke from China were all it took to spur Congress into action.

The Financial Times reports US Congress to attack renminbi valuation

Sept. 23, 2010
Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives will move ahead with a bill allowing the US to retaliate against China for manipulating its currency, a significant escalation of the dispute between Washington and Beijing.

Sander Levin, chairman of the ways and means committee in the House of Representatives, said on Wednesday the bill would be compatible with World Trade Organisation rules.

But in a largely untested area of trade law the measure will evoke opposition from Beijing and could lead to a legal challenge in the WTO. The bill will go to committee on Friday and could be voted on by the full House as early as next week.

"This bill is being advanced in the absence of effective action on a multilateral basis," Mr Levin said.

Hours later, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, told business leaders in New York that pressure on Beijing was unwarranted.

"The conditions for a major appreciation of the renminbi do not exist," he said. If the renminbi were suddenly to rise by a large degree against the dollar, "we cannot imagine how many Chinese factories will go bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their jobs, and how many migrant workers will return to the countryside... China would suffer major social upheaval".

Risk of Trade Wars Looms

The Telegraph reports Risk of trade war rises as key US committee backs tariffs on China

The adoption of the measure by the Ways and Means Committee on Friday means it will now be voted on by the House of Representatives on Wednesday.

"China's exchange-rate policy has a major impact on American businesses, and Americans jobs, which is what this is all about," said Sander Levin, a Democrat from Michigan and chairman of the committee.

China's determination to shackle the strength of its currency helped turn the country into the world's manufacturing hub for everything from iPods to T-shirts and, until the recession bit, attracted few critics. But an unemployment rate of 9.6pc in the US, as well as upcoming Congressional elections, is spreading anger across Capitol Hill.

According to the bill's supporters, a properly valued yuan would move jobs back to the US as exports from China become more expensive. The Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington argues up to 500,000 American jobs could be created.

Not every US company shares the committee's view. Wal-Mart and Citigroup are among companies lobbying against the Bill, fearing it will provoke retaliation in China. If the bill passes next week, the Senate will still need to vote on it.

House Vote Set

Bloomberg reports China Currency Measure Set for Vote in U.S. House

Legislation pressing China to raise the value of its currency is set for a vote in the U.S. House next week, as Republicans joined Democrats in expressing frustration that the yuan is appreciating too slowly.

"We cannot wait any longer to level the playing field for U.S. businesses and protect American manufacturing jobs," Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland said yesterday after the Ways and Means Committee sent the bill to the full House.

The committee adopted the measure by voice vote after the panel's top Republican, Dave Camp of Michigan, voted with Democrats to back the bill. The full House will vote Sept. 29, said committee Chairman Sander Levin of Michigan, a Democrat.

The measure would let companies petition for higher duties on imports from China to compensate for the effect of a weak currency. President Barack Obama's administration hasn't taken a position on the bill, said Natalie Wyeth, a Treasury Department spokeswoman.

The currency dispute "is a proxy for the state of the overall U.S.-China commercial relationship," William Reinsch, president of the Washington-based National Foreign Trade Council, said Sept. 23 on Bloomberg Television. "I don't think it will have that big of an impact on the American economy."

Lawmakers fended off warnings from lobbyists representing companies such as Caterpillar Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Citigroup Inc., who said the measure may lead to retaliation against U.S. companies operating in China and curb exports to the country. China may retaliate if the House passes the legislation, said Reinsch, who represents multinational companies such as Caterpillar.

Forty-four Republicans had already signed on as sponsors of the original bill, and with Camp's support, lobbyists said they expect additional Republicans to vote with Democrats next week.

"Provoking tension with our trading partners doesn't come without costs, and we should choose our battles carefully," Stephanie Lester, vice president of the Retail Industry Leaders Association, which represents Wal-Mart, said in a statement. "It makes little sense to enact harmful policies that will spark a bilateral conflict over currency with one of our largest trading partners and fastest growing markets for American exports."

Impact on Jobs

I certainly disagree with C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington who says "Forcing China to raise the value of its currency may create 500,000 jobs in the U.S."

I do not think it will create any jobs. In fact, I think it will cost jobs. Manufacturing is not going to return to the US just because we pass tariffs on China. Wage differentials are too great. Instead, imports will simply come from some other country and rising prices will hurt sales.

Of course we could pass tariffs on the whole world, but who then buy our stuff? The most likely thing to happen if we pass massive numbers of tariffs is global trade will collapse.

How Might China Respond?

Assuming we do pass a bill and the President signs it, China will respond.

Some might argue this would prompt China to dump treasuries. I find that unlikely. However, China would certainly buy less of them.

Here are a few things to consider.

On June 27 China announced it would buy 20 Boeing 777-800 airplanes for $1.4 billion to be delivered between 2013 to 2015. On August 31, Air China announced it would buy 15 Boeing 787-9 aircraft.

Might not China cancel those orders or give all future orders to Airbus? Might not China decide to put a tariff on US agricultural imports?

There are all kinds of ways China could retaliate without dumping treasuries, and we would not like any of them.

Pray tell what if China shuts off all rare earth exports? Please see Rare Earth Diplomacy: Japan Holds Chinese Boat Captain;China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan;China Holds 4 Japanese on Spy Charges;Captain Set Free for a discussion as to what that would mean to US military.

No-Win Situation for Obama

Anti-China sentiment is at a fever pitch in Congress.

If Congress passes a bill, the president will be in a no-win situation, with either his reelection chances or the economy at huge risk.

For example, if the president vetoed a bill he would be attacked from members of both political parties.

If he signed a bill and numerous import tariffs placed, global trade would collapse and the US would soon be back in a deep recession, assuming you believe Good News: The Great Recession is Over

Regardless, trade wars will make matters much worse. Does anyone remember Smoot-Hawley?

First Things First

We still do not know if the Senate will take up the measure before the election, what the Senate version will look like, whether the president will sign the bill if the measure passes, and whether or not the final version of the bill mandates action instead of noise.

Lots of things can happen. Hopefully cooler heads prevail. One final point: Trade wars like these are hallmarks of deflationary times.

Addendum - Fair Trade or Free Trade?

I was asked "Mish, what if we adopted a 'fair trade' policy where we only traded with countries that meet certain standards. Ie.) they need a EPA equivalent, UI, etc. This would seemingly stimulate jobs here while raising the global standard of living no?"

That may sound good but what constitutes "fair trade?
Who gets to define "fair"? Us or them?

Assume for a second that everyone is selling us stuff for far less than its worth. Who is harmed by this, us or them? The overwhelming percentage of the population (everyone but the handful of jobs we would save by tariffs) comes out ahead. How is this not a good thing?

Imagine going into Walmart and demanding to pay higher prices. They would think you were nuts, and so would I. Go into a small business and demand to pay more and they will probably accommodate you. People shop at Walmart, Target, Kohls, Best Buy or wherever because they like low prices.

The only people who don't like low prices are those who think (incorrectly) that higher prices will bring back jobs. But they won't.

The irony in this "fair trade" argument is the US is arguably one of the biggest abusers of "fair trade" around, especially on agricultural products. The EU is second.

Even Canada bitches at us regarding agricultural goods and lumber. Year in and year out trade agreements die on US and EU agricultural subsidies.

I maintain the first country that practices free trade regardless of what anyone else does will be a winner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Community Bank Director Chimes In Regarding Small Business Lending

Posted: 26 Sep 2010 10:38 AM PDT

In response to $30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation I received this email from a director of a small bank.

Hello Mish,

I sit on the board of a small community bank and I can attest to the fact that our loan portfolio is in excellent shape even when taking into consideration today's dismal economy. That is not to say a loan is good when made can go bad but if that happens, our bank has sufficient collateral pledged against the loan to cover such short falls. We also review our loan loss reserve and increase as needed based on criteria established under current banking regulations.

Sure there are numerous troubled banks identified by the FDIC but I feel many of these banks will survive.

All banks should be making reasonable earnings with today's low interest rate environment. For community banks, loans are vital and banks are interested in making loans to individuals or businesses that meet our underwriting standards but loan demand is down. A big majority of our loans are just loans leaving another financial institution. Why would someone leave one bank for another?

Of course loan interest rates play a part in the decision but I think a big part is the relationship a customer develops with the loan officer. Dealing directly with a local loan officer who understands your business and is genuinely interested in your business is vital.

Today many larger banks only use local loan officers to bring in the loan request but the decision to make the loan and the terms rest in some committee located in a town far away. Most small business persons will leave such a bank for a local bank with more personalized service.

It's ridiculous that Congress passed and our president signed a bill to provide funds to smaller banks for more loans. As a bank director, there is no way this plan can work. If a bank needs more deposits for loans, assuming the bank has sufficient capital, a banker can easily get more deposits from the public at a much lower cost than the bill passed by congress.

Our government is totally out of touch with the real world and passed this legislation strictly as a political move to make the public think they are trying to help small businesses.

This bull, I mean bill, should be labeled TARP II or some similar acronym.

Bazooka Lending Theory and Practice

Unlike October 2008, when Paulson forced the CEOs of the 9 largest banks to accept funds (See Compelling Banks To Lend At Bazooka Point) no one is forcing small community banks to do anything.

This is what I wrote in 2008 ...

For now, you can force banks to take money, but you can't force them to lend it.

Bazooka Theory

There seems to be a fine line between ...

1) Illegally forcing supposedly well capitalized banks at bazooka point to take money on questionable terms

2) And illegally forcing those same banks at bazooka point to lend it

Self Preservation

Thus the best thing banks can do with that money is sit on it. Yet the penalty for sitting on it is the difference between what the Fed will pay on bank reserves and the 5% interest banks have to pay at bazooka point for borrowing money they did not want in the first place. If banks do start lending like Paulson wants, defaults are guaranteed to increase dramatically.

Someone needs to tell Paulson to go to hell but no one at the table had enough courage to do it.

Here We Go Again

Banks paid back those "forced loans" as soon as they could. Small business lending did not go up, nor should it have. Credit worthy customers were (and still are) few and far between.

Nonetheless, here we go again, except this time it's voluntary.

Hells bells, if a program that forced banks to take money at bazooka did not compel banks to lend, how is a small voluntary program supposed to do it?

Supposedly, this plan will create another 4 million jobs according to president Obama. Hmm. It seems we spent a trillion dollars yet created no jobs, so offering $30 billion (little if any will be taken) to create 4 million jobs would be a feat indeed.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies 2010-09-26 Suck It Up Buddy; Protesting Nonunion Wages; Virtual Sports Fans

Posted: 26 Sep 2010 09:40 AM PDT

Protesting Nonunion Wages at Walmart

Fire Fighter Heroes

Actual Fans: Are They Necessary?

The Wall Street Journal explores the question Actual Fans: Are They Necessary?

Fans of Triestina, a professional soccer team from the northern Italian city of Trieste, were greeted with a surprise Saturday when they arrived at the team's stadium for a game against Padova.

For the first time in four years, nearly every seat in the "Colaussi" stand, which runs along one side of the field and faces the television cameras, appeared to be taken. That stand alone, which holds 10,000 fans, would have nearly doubled the team's average attendance from the previous year.

On television, the crowd looked impressive. But in person, the scene looked a bit strange. The fans were clad in scarves and winter coats—unusual for a balmy September afternoon. They failed to make a sound when the home team ran out on the field and didn't budge when the match ended in a scoreless draw.

Turns out there was a good reason for this: These "fans" were actually two-dimensional images of fans printed on a giant sheet of vinyl and stretched across the empty seats.

"It's depressing," says supporter Marco Caselli. "It's as if we're sending out the message that Trieste has no flesh-and-blood fans, just cardboard cutouts."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : The problem with putting it all on the line...

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The problem with putting it all on the line...

is that it might not work out.

The problem with not putting it all on the line is that it will never (ever) change things for the better.

Not much of a choice, I think. No risk, no art. No art, no reward.

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sâmbătă, 25 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Cold Hard Reality Hits Oregon, Treasurer Calls for Halt in State Borrowing, Postponement of Pressing Needs

Posted: 25 Sep 2010 07:35 PM PDT

At long last the truth in Oregon's finances is plain for everyone to see. Please consider Oregon's Treasurer calls for halt in state borrowing

Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler wants the Legislature to cut up its credit cards before convening in January as the combination of plummeting revenues and past borrowing threaten to lower Oregon's credit scores and increase future borrowing costs.

Wheeler on Friday called for a halt on new borrowing backed by the state's general fund until its finances recover. The recommendation was unanimously endorsed at a special meeting Thursday of the state's Debt Policy Advisory Commission.

Based on the latest shrinking revenue projections, the commission also has asked the Department of Administrative Services to "reconsider the timing" of some projects that have been approved by lawmakers but for which the bonds have not yet been issued.

That list includes a wide mix of pressing needs and stimulus measures around the state, from the new state hospital, a collaborative research building at Oregon Health & Science University, a statewide emergency radio network and a slew of projects at community colleges.

"This is the cold, hard reality," Wheeler said, "and I'd rather raise it now so when my colleagues in the Legislature convene in January, there are no surprises and they are fully familiar with that reality."

While general obligation bonds are typically used to finance big capital projects with an extended life, lawmakers have tapped them to fund operating costs in the past. The state borrowed $431 million in 2003 to cover operating expenses as it struggled to recover from the last recession. It will be repaying those bonds in $70 million installments until 2013, which will free up borrowing capacity in 2014.

Until then, the state's capacity for new debt is essentially zero, according to a report delivered to the debt policy advisory committee from Treasury's debt management division.

Mistakes a Plenty

Borrowing money to cover operating expenses is just plain stupid. The results speak for themselves. Oregon is out of borrowing capacity until 2014 and it is currently deep in the hole on revenues. That is a toxic mix.

Rep. Peter Buckley, D-Ashland, who co-chairs the Ways and Means Committee, said "the Legislature has carefully managed borrowing to stay within the 5 percent limit and will continue to do so."

Anyone who thinks Oregon has "carefully managed" this mess is an incompetent fool.
Rep. Peter Buckley should be ousted.

Pressing Needs?

Just look at the nonsense labeled "pressing needs"

New state hospital
A collaborative research building at Oregon Health & Science University
A statewide emergency radio network
Slew of projects at community colleges

There is not a damn one of those things that can remotely be considered a "pressing need". Indeed, If I was an Oregon Taxpayer, I would hope every one of them is not just postponed but scrapped.

It's stupid stuff like that that helped get Oregon in this mess. Moreover, and more critically, Oregon also has the same as every other state: unaffordable union salaries and pensions.

Critical Problems

Oregon has several major problems.

Those in office cannot distinguish between a desire and a "pressing need"
The legislature is beholden to public unions
Most of the Democrats thinks the solution is to tax everyone to death to make up for falling revenues

Genuine Pressing Needs

Oregon needs a change in governorship and the state legislature.

It's time to boot governor Ted R. Kulongoski and all the idiots who cannot distinguish between a desire and a pressing need. Most importantly, Oregonians need to elect candidates for every office willing to take on the public unions as has New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Only 18% of Americans Have "a Lot" of Confidence in US Banks

Posted: 25 Sep 2010 12:23 PM PDT

According to Gallup, Americans Confident in Own Bank, but Not U.S. Banks

The percentage of Americans saying they have a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in U.S. banks stands at 18%, continuing a trend of low confidence recorded throughout the economic downturn.

In the same survey, 6 in 10 Americans express confidence in their main or primary bank, defined as the place where they do most of their banking business.

Confidence in U.S. Banks Remains Fragile

Gallup data show that the reputation of America's banks continues to suffer from the fallout of the financial crisis and bank bailout. On the other hand, bankers should take some solace in that the majority of their customers have a positive view of the place where they do most of their banking.

What Does "Confidence in Banks" Mean?

Confidence can mean many different things. For example, I am quite confident a huge percentage of banks are insolvent.

I am also confident the vast majority of banks are hiding bad housing loans, bad commercial real estate loans, and have not properly marked-to-market probable credit card losses. Moreover, I am confident that large banks, especially Citigroup, are still hiding hundreds of billions of garbage in off-the-book SIVs.

Sadly, the Fed is not just turning a blind eye to such behavior, but encouraging it.

To help pay for hidden and pending losses, I am confident that banks will raise fees as much as much as permitted by law to nickel and dime customers to death.

To balance this mess out, I am quite confident that FDIC will be honored, no matter what it takes.

Finally, I am confident that interest rates banks offered by banks will stay low because the Fed is going to keep short-term rates as low as he can for as long as he can, to help insolvent banks slowly recapitalize over time.

Whether or not this is "confidence inspiring" or not is certainly subject to a vast amount of subjective interpretation.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Daily Snapshot: Crossroads on the Economy

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, September 25, 2010

Your Weekly Address: Crossroads on the Economy

The President lays out the choice between his plan to keep our economy moving forward, and the agenda put out by Republicans in Congress taking us backward to the special interest economy that created this mess. Watch the video.

Seth's Blog : The market is not seduced by logic

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The market is not seduced by logic

People are moved by stories and drama and hints and clues and discovery.

Logic is a battering ram, one that might work if your case is overwhelming. Wal-Mart won by logic (cheap!), but you probably won't.

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vineri, 24 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

$30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation
Privileged Public Union Liars Show Up Begging for Tax Hikes and Handouts
Question of the Day: How Many People Have Exhausted All Their Unemployment Benefits?
Rare Earth Diplomacy: Japan Holds Chinese Boat Captain;China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan;China Holds 4 Japanese on Spy Charges;Captain Set Free

$30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 08:05 PM PDT

When government passes out the money normally people are lined up, in advance, with both hands out. When that does not happen, it's because the offer smells like a rotten fish.

Please check out Obama's latest rotten fish offering as described in Small businesses, community bankers may snub Obama's $30 billion loan program

President Barack Obama's $30 billion small community business lending program faces one big challenge: many of the community banks and businesses it's supposed to help don't want it.

The lending program is part of a bill that passed the House of Representatives on Thursday and now awaits the president's signature. The legislation contains a mix of tax cuts and credits aimed at helping small businesses. The centerpiece of the bill is an effort to make billions of dollars available to community banks for loans to small businesses.

Bank executives say their customers don't want loans, even at low interest rates, because the sluggish economy has chilled expansion plans. Some say the federal money isn't worth it because they fear it will come with too much regulatory oversight.

"We have taken a strategic decision not to have our primary regulator, the government, also be a partner in our bank," said William Chase Jr., CEO of Triumph Bank in Memphis.

Chase said the bank already has enough capital to meet the paltry demand for loans. "Our business customers are mired in uncertainty and are reluctant to invest in their businesses," Chase said.

The $30 billion fund will be run by the Treasury Department, and money will be awarded to banks deemed strong by regulators. Banks that have less than $10 billion in assets are eligible.

"It will provide incentives to invest and create jobs for 4 million small businesses," Obama said at a news conference Sept. 10. "It will more than double the amount some small business owners can borrow to grow their companies."

Obama has to bridge the gulf between money that's available and the needs of businesses. The NFIB survey found businesses don't intend to borrow until they have more customers.

Community banks will have to pay an annual dividend of 5 percent to the U.S. Treasury. However, when banks increase their lending to small businesses, their dividend rate declines on a sliding scale. So, if a bank increases its small-business lending portfolio by 2.5 percent, the dividend payment goes down to 4 percent and so on, said Paul Merski, chief economist at the Independent Community Bankers of America, the lobbying group for small banks.

The dividend payment increases to 7 percent if banks don't lend to small businesses.

Noah Wilcox, CEO of Grand Rapids State Bank, with two branches in Minnesota, said he already has more capital at his $250 million bank than he can lend out.

"Many of our clients, business owners, put their projects on ice in 2008 because their job number one is to see their company through to the other side of this economic crisis," said Wilcox.

Somehow Obama takes credit for creating 4 million jobs from $30 billion that will never be spent because the terms for banks are preposterous and small businesses do not want the money anyway.

This is just what I predicted yesterday in Ass Backwards: Senate to Shelve Bush Tax Cuts for Individuals; House to Pass Small Business Tax Cuts

Buying Preferred Shares Amazing Convoluted

Buying preferred shares of banks to get them to lend is amazingly convoluted. Banks need to decide business risks of lending and make those decision on risk, not on government prodding.

The only possible saving grace for such monstrous stupidity is that Zandi is likely correct when he says banks may not take the offer in memory of TARP. Nonetheless, this is yet another step down the path of more seriously misguided government intervention.

Republicans were correct to object to this foolishness.

Tax Credits for Capital Spending Make Little Sense

Given the #1 problem facing small corporation is lack of customers, it makes little sense to entice businesses to increase capacity. Payroll tax credits suffer the same flaw.

Please see my response to both those ideas in Response to Nouriel Roubini on "America Needs a Payroll Tax Cut"

NFIB Small Business Trends

Inquiring minds are taking a look at NFIB Small Business Trends for September.

LABOR MARKETS

There is no life in the jobs market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 67,000 new private sector jobs in August, but 45,000 were from education and health care which are heavily dependent on government spending, not exactly "Main Street"companies. Eleven (11) percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, up one point from July but historically very weak. Over the next three months, eight percent plan to increase employment (down one point), and 13 percent plan to reduce their workforce (up three points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net one percent of owners planning to create new jobs, down one point from July but positive for the fourth time in the last 22 months.

CAPITAL SPENDING

The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months fell one point to 44 percent of all firms, again hitting the 35 year record low. The environment for capital spending is not good. Interest rates are low but the record long recession has eroded financial strength. More importantly, the prospects that investment spending and/or hiring will somehow increase profits are low. Four percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities, down one point. A net negative eight percent expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, seven points better than July but still more owners expect the economy to weaken than strengthen. Owners do not trust the economic policies in place or proposed, fear the economic implications of massive deficits and are distressed by global and national developments that make the future more uncertain.

INFLATION

The weak economy continued to put downward pressure on prices. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising prices was a negative eight percent, a four point increase from July. August is the 21st consecutive month in which more owners reported cutting average selling prices that raising them.

COMMENTARY

The Index has been below 93 every month since January 2008 (32 months), and below 90 for 25 of those months, all readings typical of a weak or recession-mired economy.

Inflation? Not a threat. Far more owners have cut prices than raised them for 21 months in a row. Deflation? It certainly feels that way to a quarter of the owners reporting price declines for the goods and services they produce and sell.

Here are a few charts from the article.

Prices Received

Actual Price Changes

Single Most Important Problem

The single most important problem is lack of customers. Access to credit is not even on the list. Small businesses don't want loans because they don't have any customers and prices they receive are falling like a rock.

This is deflation in action, and it is crucifying small businesses.

So what does Congress do?

Why it sets up a convoluted $30 billion program, onerous on small banks, so those small banks (who don't want the money) can offer loans to small businesses that do not want the money either!

But hey, it creates another 4 million jobs according to president Obama. Why he must have saved or created 20 million jobs this year alone.

One just might not know it judging from Question of the Day: How Many People Have Exhausted All Their Unemployment Benefits?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Privileged Public Union Liars Show Up Begging for Tax Hikes and Handouts

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 11:33 AM PDT

You can always count on the police (count on them to pick your pocket and say they are doing it for you). The Miami Herald explains the sorry state of affairs in Commission starts budget debate.

In January, Miami-Dade County Manager George Burgess wrote commissioners that he expected property values to plummet 12 percent, a record drop that would significantly reduce government revenues.

Yet, Burgess -- along with the county mayor and commissioners -- subsequently agreed to give county employees salary and benefit increases totaling $132 million.

Now, to help pay for it, Burgess is asking commissioners to support a tax rate increase on homeowners across Greater Miami that will bring in an additional $178 million in revenue.

As the final budget hearing got under way at 5:14 p.m. [September 23, 2010], county commissioners were staring at what many expected to be a long and contentious night to finalize a new budget and property tax rate.

At the outset, 179 people had signed up to speak at the public hearing and a long line of others waited to sign up in the lobby of County Hall.

A grassroots group of property owners gathered in the ground floor of County Hall shouting ``No more taxes'' and waving signs opposing the proposed tax rate hike. ``We Pay Taxes For Services. Not For Bureaucracy,'' read another sign.

A few feet away, police officers gathered in force to support the proposed budget. ``We've got our contract already. This is not about us.... This is about the residents of the community. We want them to be safe,'' said John Rivera, president of the Dade County Police Benevolent Association.

One police officer estimated about 300 police officers and 200 corrections officer had turned out for the session.

Across the hall was an equally strong turnout of county fire-rescue workers in pink T-shirts.

The political stakes spiraled higher Wednesday, when Miami businessman Norman Braman -- who has a history of bankrolling fights against county government -- declared his intention to support and finance a recall campaign against the mayor and any commissioners who support a tax rate increase.

Turnout of Taxpayers, Turnout of Liars Not Surprising

We should not be surprised by the taxpayer turnout. Nor should we be surprised that the turnout of liars was even bigger. Those who stand to benefit at the expense of others are always the first to have their hands out.

"We've got our contract already. This is not about us."

If ever there was a blatant lie, the statement "This is not about us" ranks right at the top of the list. The police could easily take a pay cut or a benefit cut. Instead they want to suck the taxpayers dry.

Correct Solution is Bankruptcy

On August 30, I stated Miami is bankrupt. I also encouraged residents to show up at the meetings. Please see Bankrupt Miami in Fiscal Emergency, Breaks Employee Contracts, Hikes Property Taxes; What You Can Do for details.

The only way the citizens of Miami can hope to escape the tyranny of the police, other public unions, and government employees in general is for the city to declare bankruptcy. The unions and other public employees can then see what their pensions are worth in bankruptcy court.

Judging from their enormously greedy actions, they deserve nothing.

Support the Recall Campaign

If you live in Miami, please support businessman Norman Braman and his effort to start a recall campaign against the mayor and any commissioners who support any tax rate increase.

Once a recall is out of the way, voters need to elect someone willing to tell the police and fire unions to go to hell. The best way to do that, perhaps the only way to do that is for the city to declare bankruptcy.

Investigate County Manager George Burgess

Finally, I believe it would be appropriate for the district attorney to investigate Miami-Dade County Manager George Burgess for misappropriation of public funds and conflicts of interest.

While not on the same scale as what happened in Bell, California (See "Corruption on Steroids" Bell Officials Arrested, Criminal Charges Filed), no one in their right mind could have agreed to give county employees salary and benefit increases totaling $132 million knowing what Burgess did about Miami's dire fiscal situation.

Of course, it is always possible George Burgess is merely insane instead of criminally insane or on the take.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Question of the Day: How Many People Have Exhausted All Their Unemployment Benefits?

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 07:25 AM PDT

Inquiring minds are asking "How many people have exhausted all of their unemployment and extended unemployment benefits?"

For starters, to exhaust benefits, one first must have had them. That excludes those who are self-employed. It also excludes those fresh out of high school or college, and looking for a job for their first time.

I have a series of charts from reader Tim Wallace that will help explore the issues. The charts are based on weekly unemployment claims data put out by the states.

Click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Continuing State and Extended Federal Unemployment Benefits

Note that in spite of the recovery, we still have not made a dent in the number of people collecting benefits.

Percentage of Eligible Now Collecting Benefits

The above chart shows the number of people collecting unemployment benefits or extended unemployment benefits, divided by the number of eligible participants.

The current data point consists of 3,891,808 continuing claims + 5,253,587 extended and EUC claims (a total of 9,145,395) divided by the eligible benefits pool of 126,763,245.

The result is an unprecedented 7.2% of those eligible, now collect unemployment benefits.

Eligible Unemployment Insurance Pool

The above charts all courtesy of Tim Wallace.
For more charts from Tim Wallace please see What does Petroleum Distillates usage say about the Recovery?

Thanks Tim!

The last chart helps address the opening question. Note that the eligibility pool is nearly back to 2004 levels!

In 2008 there were 133,690,617 covered participants. Now there are 126,763,245 covered participants. The drop from the peak is 6,927,372.

Implications and Analysis

The implication is at least 6,927,372 have exhausted all of their unemployment benefits.

Indeed, the number may be considerably higher because every first-time job seeker who found a covered job since the pool peak in 2008, displaced someone in the eligibility pool who exhausted all benefits.

All things considered, at least 7 million people exhausted all unemployment benefits with some unknown portion of them coping via an option to start collecting social security. Moreover, those prematurely opting for social security, did so with reduced benefits.

People are Broke, Congress Responds

With the exception of those opting for social security, some 7 million people who want jobs and once collected unemployment benefits, now have no job-related income.

Think those 7 million people are about to go on a spending spree? Think those forced into social security are about to go on a spending spree? Think the self-employed with no income are about to go on a spending spree? Think the 26 million unemployed or under-employed are about to go on a spending spree? Think the countless millions of working Americans barely scraping by are about to go on a spending spree?

Well, I don't either.

Yet, look at the response from Congress - Ass Backwards: Senate to Shelve Bush Tax Cuts for Individuals; House to Pass Small Business Tax Cuts.

Senate Democrats Ready To Shelve Tax Cut Vote

TPM reports Senate Dems Ready To Shelve Tax Cut Vote
A senior Senate Democratic aide told TPM today there won't be a vote on extending the Bush tax cuts in the upper chamber before the November election, a blow to party leaders and President Obama who believed this would have been a winning issue.

"Absent a stunning turn of events, we're not going to do tax cuts before the election," the aide told TPM.

"We have a winning message now, why muddy it up with a failed vote, because, of course, Republicans are going to block everything," the aide said.
Tax Credits for Capital Spending Not The Right Approach

Given the #1 problem facing small corporation is lack of customers, it makes little sense to entice businesses to increase capacity. Payroll tax credits suffer the same flaw.

Please see my response to both those ideas in Response to Nouriel Roubini on "America Needs a Payroll Tax Cut"

Indeed, I received this email from the president of a small corporation just yesterday.
Dear Mish:

I agree with your analysis of the statements by Roubini re: payroll taxes. As a business owner with four employees, I'd welcome them; however, such breaks would not entice me to hire another employee.

Have a good day.
I am quite certain that sentiment represents the vast majority of small business owners.

The one thing small business owners need is customers. It's hard to get more customers when government is going to start taking a bigger bite out of everyone's pay check.

But hey, who cares if the economy goes to hell. After all, scoring political points is far more important!

People are broke, yet Congress opts to punish those still working by letting tax cuts expire. Is this amazing or simply par for the course?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Rare Earth Diplomacy: Japan Holds Chinese Boat Captain;China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan;China Holds 4 Japanese on Spy Charges;Captain Set Free

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 11:57 PM PDT

Tensions between China and Japan reached new heights in an escalating war of nerves between Japan and China. Here is the approximate sequence of events.

Japan kicked things off on September 7, with the arrest of a Chinese boat captain in disputed waters. In an escalating dispute, China blocked exports of rare earth metals to Japan on September 22.

Rare earth minerals are used in manufacturing and weapons production. The US gets most of its rare earth elements from China.

Tensions increased on September 23 when China arrested four Japanese employees of Fujita Corp on suspicion of violating Chinese law regarding the protection of military facilities.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton entered the fray "urging dialogue".

The House Armed Services Committee scheduled a hearing on Oct. 5 to review the American military dependence on Chinese rare earth elements.

Japan releases captain.

September 10, 2010: China demands Japan release detained boat captain

China's foreign minister demanded that Tokyo immediately release the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that collided with two Japanese patrol vessels near disputed islands. But a Japanese court ruled he can be held 10 more days, deepening the diplomatic spat.

The collisions occurred Tuesday after the Chinese fishing boat ignored warnings from the patrol vessels to leave the area and then refused to stop for an inspection, Japan's coast guard said.

The incident happened off Japan's Kuba island, just north of disputed islands known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. The islands, about 120 miles (190 kilometers) east of Taiwan, are controlled by Japan but are also claimed by China and Taiwan.

September 14, 2010: Japan frees 14 crew, holds Chinese ship's captain

Japan freed 14 crew members of a Chinese fishing ship nearly a week after their vessel and two Japanese patrol boats collided near disputed southern islets. But China lashed out at Tokyo's decision to keep the captain in custody.

But Japan continues to detain the captain of the Chinese trawler, Zhan Qixiong. A Japanese court has granted prosecutors permission to keep the captain in custody until September 19 to decide whether to formally indict him.

The dispute has sparked anti-Japanese activists in China and Taiwan, which also claims the islands in question, to sail to the area on their own protest missions - although both governments have sought to rein them in so as not to inflame tensions further.

September 19, 2010: China halts ministerial-level contacts with Japan

China on Sunday broke off high-level government contacts with Japan over the extended detention of a fishing boat captain arrested near disputed islands. It came a day after anti-Japanese protests broke out across China on the anniversary of the start of a brutal Japanese invasion of China in 1931 that has historically cast a shadow over ties between what are now the world's second and third-largest economies.

This is the lowest bilateral relations have fallen to since they were strained under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose repeated visits to a war shrine in Japan during his 2001-2006 term angered China.

The two countries halted ministerial-level defense talks for three years from 2003. But even in those tense times, Japan's foreign minister visited China in 2004 and met Wen.

September 22, 2010: Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan

Sharply raising the stakes in a dispute over Japan's detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain, the Chinese government has blocked exports to Japan of a crucial category of minerals used in products like hybrid cars, wind turbines and guided missiles.

China mines 93 percent of the world's rare earth minerals, and more than 99 percent of the world's supply of some of the most prized rare earths, which sell for several hundred dollars a pound.

Japan has been the main buyer of Chinese rare earths for many years, using them for a wide range of industrial purposes, like making glass for solar panels. They are also used in small steering control motors in conventional gasoline-powered cars as well as in motors that help propel hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius.

American companies now rely mostly on Japan for magnets and other components using rare earth elements, as the United States' manufacturing capacity in the industry became uncompetitive and mostly closed over the last two decades.

The Chinese halt to exports is likely to have immediate repercussions in Washington. The House Committee on Science and Technology is scheduled on Thursday morning to review a detailed bill to subsidize the revival of the American rare earths industry. The main American rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, Calif., closed in 2002, but efforts are under way to reopen it.

The House Armed Services Committee has scheduled a hearing on Oct. 5 to review the American military dependence on Chinese rare earth elements.

The Defense Department has a separate review under way on whether the United States should develop its own sources of supply for rare earths, which are also used in equipment including rangefinders on the Army's tanks, sonar systems aboard Navy vessels and the control vanes on the Air Force's smart bombs.

September 23, 2010: Japan confirms 4 nationals detained in China

A Japanese foreign ministry spokesman confirmed Friday that four Japanese nationals had been detained in China on suspicion of violating Chinese law regarding the protection of military facilities, as tensions rise between Asia's two biggest economies.

"We were told the reason for the detention of the four Japanese people is violation of Chinese law relating to protection of military facilities," said Hidenobu Sobashima, deputy foreign ministry spokesman.

September 24, 2010: Clinton Urges China-Japan 'Dialogue,' Stays Neutral in Dispute

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Japan to resolve issues with China over a detained Chinese fishing captain through dialogue, as U.S. officials declined to step into a broader territorial dispute.

The U.S. encourages "both sides to work aggressively to resolve" their differences "as quickly as possible," State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley told reporters in New York yesterday, where Clinton met with Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly's annual meeting.

The diplomatic dispute has caught the attention of the U.S. military, which relies on Japan to provide bases and other support for American forces. Japan is one of two security treaty allies for the U.S. in the region, along with South Korea.

Watching Tension 'Carefully'

"We're watching that tension very, very carefully," said Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and President Barack Obama's top military adviser. "Obviously we're very, very strongly in support of our ally in that region, Japan," he told reporters at the Pentagon yesterday.

September 24, 2010: Japan Releases Chinese Boat Captain

Japanese prosecutors announced that they have decided to release a Chinese sea captain who has been in Japanese custody since a ship collision in the East China Sea, amid escalating tension between the two nations.

"We decided it was inappropriate to continue the investigation while keeping the suspect in custody any further, considering the future of the Japan-China relationship," an official from the Osaka prosecutors' office said at a hastily called press conference Friday afternoon.

I'm sure glad we once again have a stable source of rare earth elements, aren't you?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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