Central Perk

vineri, 5 noiembrie 2010

West Wing Week: Don't Watch the Plasma Arc

Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, Nov. 5, 2010

West Wing Week

West Wing Week is your guide to everything that's happening at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Walk step by step with the President as he tours Stromberg Sheet Metal, a Maryland company planning to expand its workforce in the coming year, explains the actions taken to disrupt and investigate a potential terrorist attack, welcomes trick-or-treaters to the White House for Halloween, takes questions from the press and speaks about ways to move the country forward and grow our economy, surprises a group of wounded warriors during their White House tour and much more. Watch the video.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

9:25 AM: The President delivers a statement to the press on the monthly jobs numbers

9:45 AM: The President and the First Lady depart the White House en route Andrews Air Force Base

10:00 AM: The President and the First Lady depart Andrews Air Force Base en route Ramstein, Germany

5:10 PM: The President and the First Lady arrive in Ramstein, Germany and Air Force One refuels

Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

SEOptimise

A Slasher’s Guide to Blekko – The Most Advanced Search Engine Ever Created

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 06:08 AM PDT

Let’s just be clear: Blekko is the best thing since sliced bread. It’s the most advanced search engine ever created and every SEO professional or webmaster has to use it. No irony here whatsoever.

I’ve been a beta tester before the public launch on Monday but I mainly used Blekko as a replacement for Yahoo Site Explorer, Open Site Explorer and Majestic SEO. I didn’t even get the whole “slashtag” thing. Blekko is not solely an excellent SEO tool or rather set of tools though. It’s a full fledged search engine that can yield better results than Google when used properly.

Since Monday when Blekko launched I’ve become a slasher that is I’ve customized Blekko to become the perfect search engine for my own use.

Search Engine Land has already provided an overview of the plethora of SEO tools Blekko offers. Bruce Clay has a guide for Blekko’s basic features. I will focus on using Blekko as your personal or rather business search central.

As a business blogger I’m doing a whole lot of research every day so I’m a prolific search user throughout the day. I used mainly Google, Topsy, Delicious and various aggregators to find out what’s going on. Blekko renders some of the latter redundant. Also I don’t use Google anymore when I search for SEO and search related news and resources. I use Blekko custom search aka slashtags. I’m a slasher!

Create you’re custom vertical search engines on the fly.

What’s a slashtag? It’s basically a custom vertical search engine. You can either use the predefined ones or create your own within minutes. A slashtag limits the search to only the sites you trust or the people who have set up a slashtag trust.

Check out these custom search engines for search and social marketers you can use right away:

http://blekko.com/ws/+/seoblogs

Official list of SEO and marketing blogs that focus on SEO as well. I am an editor of this list.

http://blekko.com/ws/+/blekko/seosites + http://blekko.com/ws/+/dannysullivan/seosites

The official list of SEO sites which happens to be identical with one one provided by Danny Sullivan himself. Only the roughly 30 top sites in search.

http://blekko.com/ws/+/leeodden/social-media-blogs

Lee Odden has created this well sorted list of social media and social media marketing blogs. The slashtag contains almost 50 entries now.

http://blekko.com/ws/+/seobook/seoblogs

Very inclusive list of all kinds of SEO related publications curated by SEO expert Aaron Wall. Even Google Code, TechCrunch or Seth’s Blog is an “SEO blog” here. On the other hand you won’t find my blog in here as of now:

http://blekko.com/ws/seo+2.0+/seobook/seoblogs

and dead blogs like seo-scoop.com show up in the results on top.

Whenever you search for something you can restrict your search to just trustworthy sources by using a slashtag. So instead of searching for [seo] you search for [seo /seoblogs] or [seo /seobook/seoblogs]

I’ve created a SEO 2.0 slashtag some weeks ago for testing purposes. It contains mainly SEO definitions as of now:

http://blekko.com/ws/+/onreact/seo-2-0

The official /seoblogs slashtag gets suggested each time someone searches for SEO. The Blekko team had already provided a list with 30 of them but then yours truly joined in the fun and now it contains 130 SEO blogs and counting. I haven’t added just everybody I know but only active blogs with a rep in the industry. Thus I couldn’t add some of my best friends like Cape Cod SEO or SEOCO for not updating their blogs enough in 2010.

Blekko is not perfect yet, it’s beta after all but it reminds me of the early days of Firefox, when it was still called Phoenix. I don’t mean to say that Blekko is like a browser, I mean that Blekko’s target audience are the same people who were Firefox early adopters. The same people will love Blekko and only rarely revert to the Internet Explorer of search: Google.

Blekko is advanced search in a simple interface. You don’t have to type in advanced search operators, use clumsy forms or add parameters to the actual search URL. Blekko is advanced by default. Just select the right slashtag.

Seth's Blog : Childish vs. childlike

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Childish vs. childlike

Childlike makes a great scientist.

Childish produces tantrums.

Childlike brings fresh eyes to marketing opportunities.

Childish rarely shows up as promised.

Childlike is fearless and powerful and willing to fail.

Childish is annoying.

Childlike inquires with a pure heart.

Childish is merely ignored.

• Email to a friend •

•

joi, 4 noiembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Gaming the Jobs Report: TimTabs +75,000, ADP +43,000, Bloomberg +60,000, Gallup Sees Unemployment Rising to 9.7% to 9.9%
Trends in Rail Traffic
Weekly Claims Show Job Stagnation for Entire Year
October Retail Sales a "Strange Brew"
33% Tax Hike Will Hit Illinois; Another Stiffed Illinois Vendor Stops Servicing State; Common Sense in Tucson and Delta Airlines
Three Reasons QEII Will "Backfire"; Pavlov's Dogs and the "No Choice" Argument Yet Again
Chicago Natural Resources Expo November 5-6

Gaming the Jobs Report: TimTabs +75,000, ADP +43,000, Bloomberg +60,000, Gallup Sees Unemployment Rising to 9.7% to 9.9%

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 08:52 PM PDT

Friday's jobs reports will be out shortly. Here is how some see it, late Thursday evening.

Gallup

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Likely to Be Up on Friday

Gallup analysis suggests the October unemployment rate that the government reports on Friday will be in the 9.7% to 9.9% range. This is despite the fact that unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, fell sharply to 9.4% at the end of October -- down from 10.0% in mid-October and 10.1% at the end of September. Most of this drop took place after the official Labor Department measurement period, suggesting the government's October report may not pick up this late-month decline.

Relationship to the Official U.S. Unemployment Rate

Gallup's end-of-October data suggest that the unemployment rate plunged during the last half of the month. However, most of the improvement took place after the measurement period for the government's jobs report, due out Friday. Over that period, Gallup's unemployment measure, which is not seasonally adjusted, increased from 9.4% in mid-September to 10.1% at the end of September and 10.0% in mid-October. As a result, Gallup analysis suggests the government's seasonally adjusted October unemployment rate is likely to increase into the 9.7% to 9.9% range when it is reported on Nov. 5.

Why the Decline in Unemployment?

In part, the sharp improvement in the unemployment rate and in underemployment during late October may be explained by the approaching holiday sales season. Halloween is becoming a bigger holiday and could be responsible for some added hiring. Further, some retailers are starting their Christmas sales early, anticipating a flat sales period, and could be adding jobs. Both of these possibilities are consistent with the ADP report that private-sector service jobs grew by 77,000 in October.

Another more speculative possibility involves Federal Reserve policy and the midterm elections. Many companies seem to have simply put a hold on new activities, including hiring, during late September and early October, as the economy seemed to be weakening more than expected and the business operating environment seemed more uncertain than normal.

Regardless of the reason -- and although it was too late to help political incumbents on Tuesday -- it appears that the jobs situation showed substantial improvement in late October. Now, it is up to the Fed and the new Congress to build on what appears to be some late October jobs momentum.

Gallup was wrong each of the last two months. Do they have it correct this month?

ADP

The ADP National Employment Report

Private-sector employment increased by 43,000 from September to October on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from August to September was revised up from the previously reported decline of 39,000 to a smaller decline of 2,000. Since employment began rising in February, the monthly gain has averaged 34,000 with a range of -2,000 to +65,000 during the period. October's figure is within this recent range and is consistent with the deceleration of economic growth that occurred in the spring. Employment gains of this magnitude are not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate. Given modest GDP growth in the second and thirds quarters, and the usual lag of employment behind GDP, it would not be surprising to see several more months of lethargic employment gains, even if the economic recovery gathers momentum.

ADP and Gallup say the same thing. More jobs, higher unemployment rate.

TrimTabs

Via email, no link available...

Sausalito, CA – November 3, 2010 – TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 95,000 jobs in October, the first monthly increase since May.

"The economy clearly improved in October," said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs. "Unfortunately, the gains probably aren't sustainable."

Multiple indicators suggest the labor market perked up last month. Real-time tax data shows wage and salary growth accelerated, TrimTabs' proprietary measure of online job postings jumped 5.6%, and initial unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since August 2008.

In a research note, TrimTabs argues that the economy will remain stuck in slow-growth mode. October's employment increase likely owes to temporary factors such as inventory building. Also, a cheaper dollar boosted exports, and record low mortgage rates spurred refinancing activity.

"Economic growth is likely to stay sluggish because the private sector isn't able to pick up the slack from waning government stimulus," Schnapp noted. "State and local government budget crises and the weak housing market will be significant drags on growth for a long time."

That low in initial unemployment claims vanished today with an adjusted initial claims total of 457,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 437,000.

Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Survey average was +60,000.

The U.S. jobless rate held at 9.6 percent for a third month in October, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today's Labor Department report. Payrolls likely rose by 60,000, the first increase since May, a separate survey showed.

Anything from +40,000 to +110,000 seems like a reasonable guess. I certainly would not be surprised to see a number in the upper end of that range. Stores are hiring, Black Friday sales are starting 3 weeks early, and ISM reports seemed surprisingly strong.

However, I do not think positive surprises will hold.

TrimTabs says it best "Economic growth is likely to stay sluggish because the private sector isn't able to pick up the slack from waning government stimulus. State and local government budget crises and the weak housing market will be significant drags on growth for a long time."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Trends in Rail Traffic

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 04:27 PM PDT

Rail traffic continues to recover, but from very depressed levels as noted on the Railfax Carloading Report.

Changes Since 2007

13-Week Moving Average Projections

Railfax has modified their site to use Tableau software. Controls allow you slide bars to see any timeframes you want. Inquiring minds will want to check it out. I selected a timeframe of 2007 on.

Interestingly, the top charts shows the recession bottom in summer of 2009 quite nicely.

I am a big fan of Tableau Software but that second chart is fantasy material, especially the projection for cyclical traffic.

The following table will help put things into perspective.

Total traffic is up 10.4% year to date vs 2009, but down 8.6% from 2008.
Autos are up 24.2% vs 2009 but down 25.4% vs 2008.

Some 17 months into a "recovery" we are not only below 2008 totals but 2007 totals as well. Moreover, much of the bounce we have seen has been inventory replenishment and the Fed knows it.

If the real economy was not fragile as eggshells (broken is actually more like it), there would not be a QEII.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Weekly Claims Show Job Stagnation for Entire Year

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 12:57 PM PDT

After movement in both directions over the past couple months, weekly claims are back where they have been for nearly a year, right around the 450,000 mark.

Please consider the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for November 4, 2010.

In the week ending Oct. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 437,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 454,000.

The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it's best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims

The 4-week moving average is still near the peak results of the last two recessions. It's important to note those are raw numbers, not population adjusted. Nonetheless, the numbers do indicate broad, persistent weakness.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Since 2006

No Lasting Improvement for 12 Months

There has been no lasting improvement for nearly a year. Weekly claims have generally been in the 440,000 to 480,000 range with the 4-week moving average practically pinned to the 450,000 mark.

To be consistent with an economy adding jobs coming out of a recession, the number of claims needs to fall to the 400,000 level.

At some point employers will be as lean as they can get (and still stay in business). Yet, that does not mean businesses are about to go on a big hiring boom. Indeed, unless consumer spending picks up, they won't.

Questions on the Weekly Claims vs. the Unemployment Rate

A question keeps popping up in emails: "How can we lose 400,000+ jobs a week and yet have the unemployment rate stay flat and the monthly jobs report show gains?"

The answer is the economy is very dynamic. People change jobs all the time. Note that from 1975 forward, the number of claims was generally above 300,000 a week, yet some months the economy added well over 250,000 jobs.

Also note that the monthly published unemployment rate is from a household survey, not a survey of payroll data from businesses. That is why the monthly "establishment survey" (a sampling of actual payroll data) is not always in alignment with changes in the unemployment rate. At economic turns the discrepancy can be wide.

Where To From Here?

Four weeks ago the weekly claims print was 475,000. That number will roll off the 4-week moving average next week. Thus any number lower than 475,000 will cause the 4-week moving average to drop.

Assuming we get a print of 450,000, next week's 4-week moving average will decline to ... drum roll please ... 450,000.

As measured from weekly claims, the economy has been stagnant for a year. However, there is upward pressure on the number in light of cutbacks by state and local governments.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

October Retail Sales a "Strange Brew"

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 11:10 AM PDT

Retailers report luxury sales are up but so are sales at Walmart and Costco. Meanwhile other stores like JC Penny and Kohl's are using the old standby of blaming the weather for lack of sales.

Promotions started early this year because of lack of demand, hardly a sign of strength. Moreover, October is a weak month. Given that sales last year were especially weak, year-over-year comparisons are suspect.

Thus, it's hard to make much of anything from retail sales reports in an aggregate sense, but there are some interesting trends at individual store levels.

The New York Times reports Retailers Tally a Mixed October as Sales Rose 1.6%

At the 28 stores tracked by Thomson Reuters, an index that excludes the nation's largest retailer, Wal-Mart, there was a 1.6 percent increase in sales at stores open at least a year. That met analysts' expectations, and marked the 14th month of increased sales. But the positive results have been compared with months last year that had significant declines because of the economic downturn.

Several retailers, including J. C. Penney, Kohl's, Stage Stores, Macy's and Stein Mart, blamed unusually warm weather for their results, saying it lessened interest in cold-weather clothing.

Discount retailers posted the best results over all, with an average increase of 3.8 percent from a year ago. Costco led that category, with a 6 percent rise in sales.

A resurgence in luxury spending seemed to have legs, with the two higher-end department stores — Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom — reporting the highest increases among the department-store category. Saks's sales were up 8.1 percent, and at Nordstrom's full-price stores (as opposed to its discount outlets), sales rose 4.8 percent. But Dillards, Bon-Ton Stores, J. C. Penney, Kohl's and Stage Stores all reported declines from last year, and the latter three missed analysts' expectations.

The biggest decline was the teenage retailer Hot Topic. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 8.5 percent, and that was as compared to a 2.6 percent decline from October a year ago.

Ken Perkins, the president of the consulting firm Retail Metrics, called it a "strange brew" in a note to clients.

Selective Shopping

The Wall Street Journal mentions "selective shopping" in Retailers Showing Mixed October Sales Results

"There is a market-share war that is heating up as we move into the holiday season and some retailers evidently are already pulling out the big guns, creating winners and losers," said John Long, retail strategist at Kurt Salmon Associates.

Aeropostale Inc. appears to be a victim of the pricing wars among teen retailers, posting a 2% drop in October same-store sales when analysts expected a 3.1% rise. The company is being pinched as other chains that sell teen apparel, like Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. have been lowering prices, encroaching on Aeropostale's corner of the market.

The results are giving a taste of what retailers may expect for Christmas, more selective shopping from consumers who are still not comfortable with the economy. Projections for holiday season sales vary, ranging from a slight loss to over 4% growth, reflecting even economists' uncertainty about the season.

The situation has also caused some retailers to already begin promoting Christmas. Sears Holdings Corp. is already advertising "Black Friday" specials. Toys R Us is promoting its catalog of holiday toys and gadgets. In a sign of the kind of approach many retailers may take this holiday season, the Toys R Us catalog has an application for smartphones and is Internet-friendly.

Explaining the Strange Brew

It seems easy enough to figure the surge in luxury spending can be attributed to the stock market rally. However, the good news pretty much seems to end there.

Walmart is up but J. C. Penney, Kohl's, Stage Stores, Macy's and Stein Mart all blame the weather.

Teen Sales Telling

The teen retailer segment was anemic with the exception of Zumiez which reported a 21.5 percent increase. However, last year the store had a decline of 8.9 percent. Perhaps a reflection of age, I have to admit I have never seen a Zumiez store but I certainly have been in many Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters Inc, and Hot Topic stores (the latter out of curiosity).

Given the number of struggling families where every penny counts and given high teen unemployment, one should not be surprised by the poor performance in the teen group (discounting Zumiez as an outlier).

Late October Surge

The above articles mentioned a surge in late October spending. That surge was picked up in a Gallup survey. However, Gallup claims a pickup in spending in late October is the typical pattern. See Gallup Surveys Shows Anemic October Consumer Spending, No Pickup in Christmas Spending Plans for details.

Consumer Squeeze

That Walmart and Costco are doing well is a sign of a consumer squeeze, not a sign of strength.

All of this points to a mediocre Christmas.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

33% Tax Hike Will Hit Illinois; Another Stiffed Illinois Vendor Stops Servicing State; Common Sense in Tucson and Delta Airlines

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 09:52 AM PDT

Illinois has a $13 billion and growing deficit. The current backlog of bills approaches $6 billion. The state has not paid some suppliers for seven months. In response some vendors have stopped doing business with the state.

Please consider Another vendor quits doing business with Illinois

Records show the Illinois Department of Corrections was forced to scramble this week when a vendor refused to deliver foam food trays to Menard Correctional Center because it hadn't been paid. Industrial Soap Co., which holds the master contract for the foam trays, "will not deliver due to delinquent invoices," prison officials noted.

The St. Louis-based vendor wouldn't discuss the contract situation Tuesday, but records show the company is owed about $166,000 dating to last year.

In order to avoid gaps in meal service, state officials gave another company a $36,000 emergency contract to keep the foam trays in stock.

The trays are needed to serve meals to the 3,400 inmates because they have been mostly locked in their cells since mid-October due to rising violence in the maximum-security facility.

The state is facing a $13 billion deficit that could grow larger by next year. The current backlog of bills is listed by Comptroller Dan Hynes at nearly $5.6 billion. The state owes at least one vendor for services dating back to March.

Earlier this year, a company that provides ammunition to help train new guards stopped delivering bullets because it was owed money. Another company that supplies eyeglass lenses also stopped shipping the stock until it was paid.

33% Tax Hike Coming to Illinois

Illinois voters likely returned Governor Pat Quinn to office. Their reward will be a 33% tax hike, if Quinn gets his way.

The election is still undecided 2 days later. Quinn's lead is 16,000 or so out of over 3.6 million cast. Absentee ballots have yet to be counted. However, the math looks improbable for challenger Bill Brady.

The problem for Brady is he barely got 20% of the vote in a packed Republican primary. 80% of Republicans wanted someone else. Brady generated little enthusiasm, and none from me, except for one thing: He was not Quinn.

For most voters, that was not enough.

Chicago voted overwhelmingly for Quinn, 86% to 14% or so. His solution is to the mess is a proposal to raise state taxes by 33%.

Congratulations to Delta

The Star Tribune reports Delta attendants say 'no' to union

Flight attendants at Delta Air Lines narrowly rejected union representation in the first of three votes to organize the majority of employees at the world's second largest airline.

The results, announced shortly after the close of voting Wednesday, were 9,544 votes against the union, and 9,216 in favor of the Association of Flight Attendants (AFA) or other unions. The margin was 328 votes, or 1.7 percent.

AFA President Pat Friend said Delta's management ran "the largest anti-union campaign that this country has ever seen" and the union would challenge the fairness of the election and seek a revote. Delta rejected the union's claims as "ridiculous" and said it looked forward to integrating its workforce two years after the merger of mostly nonunion Delta and heavily unionized Northwest Airlines

If the result stands, it means that 7,200 former Northwest flight attendants, including 1,900 based in Minnesota, will no longer be represented by the union or be covered by their existing contract. Delta said it will announce a transition plan for those workers at a later date.

Common Sense in Tucson

Common sense ruled in Tucson where voters rejected a tax hike give away to public union workers. The Arizona Daily Star reports Tucson City Manager: 400 workers face layoff.

A day after a city sales tax hike was soundly rejected by voters, Tucson City Manager Mike Letcher and Mayor Bob Walkup announced an estimated 400 city workers could be laid off.

He said those layoffs will include police officers and firefighters if there is not enough attrition in those departments.

Both Walkup and Letcher said the public was clear that they wanted to see more cuts, and Letcher blamed the sales tax increase's failure on a national movement by voters who are demanding smaller government.

Voters are not necessarily demanding fewer workers, they simply want more for their money. Not a single city worker has to be laid off. All that has to happen is for the unions to lower salaries and pensions to meet the budget.

This is not the voters' fault, 100% of the blame for the layoffs go to the unions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Three Reasons QEII Will "Backfire"; Pavlov's Dogs and the "No Choice" Argument Yet Again

Posted: 04 Nov 2010 01:16 AM PDT

Dr. El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO states several reasons why QEII will backfire.

1. The Fed is going it alone, without meaningful structural reforms
2. Emerging economies burdened by capital inflows in the wake of QEII will react with currency wars, protectionism, and capital controls
3. Resultant commodity price increases will increase input costs and reduce earnings of American companies

The position of El-Erian is interesting given that PIMCO founder, managing director and co-CIO endorsed QEII as discussed in Bill Gross' Arrogant Endorsement of Fed's QE Policy he calls History's Most "Brazen Ponzi Scheme".

Unintended Consequences of QEII

Mohamed El-Erian addresses the unintended consequences of Fed policy actions and the reasons Quantitative Easing will fail in QE2 blunderbuss likely to backfire.

The Fed faces three problems, with its solo role being the first. Having warned in late August in Jackson Hole that "central bankers alone cannot solve the world's economic problems", Ben Bernanke, the Fed's chairman, is now leading an institution that is virtually on its own among US policymakers in meaningfully trying to counter the sluggishness of the US economy and the stubbornly high unemployment.

The rest of the world does not need this extra liquidity, and this is where the second problem emerges. Several emerging economies, such as Brazil and China, are already close to overheating; and the eurozone and Japan can ill afford further appreciation in their currencies.

Despite polite rhetoric to the contrary in the lead up to the Group of 20 leading economies summit in Korea this month, other countries are likely to counter what they view as an unnecessarily disruptive surge in capital flows caused by inappropriate and short-sighted American policy. The result will be renewed currency tensions and a higher risk of capital controls and trade protectionism.

The third issue relates to the gradual erosion of America's central role in the global economy – including as the provider of both the world's reserve currency and its deepest and most predictable financial markets. No other country or multilateral institution can displace the US, but a combination of alternatives can serve to erode its influence over time. No wonder commodity prices surged higher and the dollar weakened markedly in anticipation of QE2, pointing to increased input costs for American companies and unwelcome pressures on their earnings.

Pavlov's Dogs and the "No Choice" Argument Yet Again

Although I agree with the three major points above, I certainly do not concur with El-Erian's opening gambit "Given the high market expectations, the US Federal Reserve had no choice but to announce a second tranche of quantitative easing".

Pray tell who set those expectations if not the Fed? Moreover, given the market reacted like Pavlov's Dogs to the announcement, the Fed could have and should have toned down market expectations.

Finally given that the Fed produced a bubble in junk bonds and sent commodity prices soaring the Fed had every reason to disappoint the market today.

For more on junk bonds please see ...

Thanks to Fed, Bubble Builds in Junk Bonds; We Know How Bubbles End

Mad Dash Into Junk Sets October Record

Intended vs. Unintended Consequences

Add a junk bond bubble to the list of consequences (unintended or otherwise).

Bernanke is clearly misguided enough and arrogant enough to purposely blow a junk bond bubble as an "intended consequence", even though the housing bubble bust proves without a doubt the asininity of such policies.

Thus, it's hard to say if Bernanke wants a junk bond bubble or is merely willing to live with one.

Then again, Bernanke is dense enough to not have any clues about what is happening. He did not see the housing bubble, the recession, the huge rise in unemployment, and any number of other things that happened. In fact, he even denied there was a housing bubble.

In the academic wonderland in which Bernanke lives, it is perfectly possible he is oblivious to the bubbles he is creating.

However, looking at things from every angle, given that Bernanke Admits Targeting Stock Prices, I am leaning towards the first option: Bernanke is misguided enough and arrogant enough to purposely blow more asset bubbles as an "intended consequence", hoping he can deal with them later.

Missing the Obvious

I touched on the one obvious reason QEII will fail in QEII Announced, Fed Set to Buy $600 Billion in Bonds, Reinvest $250 Billion More; Fed Micromanaged Economy to Oblivion; No Miracles Coming

Doubts? What Doubts?

There is little doubt, at least in this corner, that the plan cannot possibly work. Corporate borrowing costs are the lowest in history and that hasn't spurred hiring. Will another quarter of a point lower matter? Will QEII even lower rates that much?

Simple explanations as to why QEII will fail are best: "Money's Already Quite Cheap"

With mortgage interest rates at all time lows, is this supposed to help housing? Why?

It is sad but true economic thinking these days that the "Fed had to do Something". Why does it make sense to do something, just for the sake of doing, when it should be crystal clear that doing just adds to problems down the road.

Fed Micromanaged Economy to Oblivion

The Fed has clearly micromanaged this economy to oblivion. Greenspan's experiment short-circuited the 2001 recession but the expense was the biggest housing bubble in the history of the world, not just in the US, but globally.

A global recession soon followed.

Now on misguided calls to "do something" the Fed is blowing a bubble in commodities that cannot possibly help margin strapped small businesses.

An excerpt from $30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation will show why. ....

No One Has To Do Anything

It is disappointing to see El-Erian perpetuate the myth the Fed had to do something when one of the biggest reasons we are in this mess is a activist Fed under both Greenspan and Bernanke felt the need to do something about LTCM, Y2K, the Dot-Com bubble, housing, motherhood, and apple pie.

At least El-Erian is not defending what Gross calls a "Ponzi Scheme" to the same foolish extent that Bill Gross did. More importantly, El-Erian makes it clear exactly what some of the consequences are, while the Gross article sounds like "jumping the shark".

Structural Reforms

El-Erian said "Without meaningful structural reforms, part of the Fed's liquidity injection will leak right out of the US and result in yet another surge of capital flows to other countries."

I agree, but I rather doubt we are talking the same language. This country needs to ...

Scrap Davis-Bacon
End public union collective bargaining
End the public union stranglehold on the cities and states
Fix the pension problem
Even the playing field between big and small businesses on corporate income taxes
Get the hell out of Afghanistan
Reduce military spending
Rein in entitlements
Stop being the world's policeman
Balance the budget
Return to constitutional money

Fed Fights Battle that Cannot be Won, Should Not be Fought

Given that Congress is unlikely to do many, if indeed any of those things, the Fed is fighting a battle that cannot be won and should not be fought.

We are in this mess because the Fed micro-mismanaged the economy at every critical juncture while attempting to smooth over various fiscal insanities, counter bad Congressional policies, as well as deal with the repercussions of its own monetary insanities, on a delayed chasing-its-tail basis, in a global economy that waits for no one.

Is it any wonder the Fed failed in dual mandate of price stability and maximum growth?

For more on the silliness of the Dual Mandate as well as a rebuttal to the notion "Don't Fight the Fed" please see Krugman and the Inevitable "I Told You So" - Tim Duy "Bad Things Happen When You Fight the Fed"; Final End of Bretton Woods 2?

With that key idea in mind, there are two more structural reforms glaringly lacking in the above list: Abolish the Fed and End Fractional Reserve Banking.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Chicago Natural Resources Expo November 5-6

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 11:40 PM PDT

Those in the greater Chicago area are welcome to attend the Chicago Natural Resources Expo on November 5-6 for a discussion about gold, silver, hard assets, inflation, currencies (or whatever else is on your mind) and to meet with various natural resource company executives.

For all the deflationists in the crowd, I am once again pleased to announce the magic words: "It's free".

Originally known as the Chicago Natural Resource Conference and Exhibition, this is one of the oldest natural resource conferences in the United States. The conference is a semi-annual event and offers opportunities to learn about new and undervalued companies in the natural resource industry.

The event is directed by Rich Radez, who started the conference back in 1977. Rich, and his son Eric, created the unique format which focuses on resource companies and provides maximum exposure to both investors and sponsors.

There is no cost for those who pre-register to attend the conference. The Expo is held at the Rolling Meadows Holiday Inn and Convention Center in Rolling Meadows, IL. The Holiday Inn is located at 3405 Algonquin Road, Rolling Meadows, IL 60008. The hotel can be contacted at 847-259-5000. It is a two day event that starts on a Friday afternoon, and ends on Saturday afternoon.

The Exhibition Hall, featuring some of the top companies in the resource industry, opens at 4pm. A buffet which includes jumbo shrimp, and smoked sockeye salmon, is served at 5pm. Following the buffet, company presentations begin. Friday night features a Q & A Session hosted by Rich Radez and a panel of industry experts, the discussion is based on topics that are fueled by the audience's interests.

The event resumes on Saturday morning. Attendees enjoy a continental breakfast, and browse the exposition hall learning about companies. In the meantime, individual company presentations begin in the presentation hall. These presentations are a great way to hear each company's story. Lunch buffet is served around noon, and accompanied by the second panel discussion. After lunch, presentations and expositions continue for the remainder of the day.

I will be on the panel Friday evening and Saturday afternoon along with Ty Andros, Clyde Harrison, and others. Saturday lunch is free also (but you do have to put up with listening to me on the panel).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

vineri, 5 noiembrie 2010