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miercuri, 10 noiembrie 2010
White House White Board: The President in Asia & the National Export Initiative
Seth's Blog : Oxygen for ideas
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Oxygen for ideas
Matt has a masterful post up about what it means to ship. Until your idea interacts with the market, you're suffocating it. Worth printing out and posting on the watercooler...
The feedback I'm getting from the Shipit journal is that it changes people, makes them uncomfortable and gets things out the door. If you're hiding from the market, it's difficult to do great work.
More Recent Articles
- Seeking market resonance
- "I don't have any good ideas"
- Problems and constraints
- Do more vs. do better
- Alienating the 2%
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Seth's Blog : Seeking market resonance
[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Seeking market resonance
If you've ever wasted time at a catered affair, you know the water glass trick. Half full glass, wet finger, hold the bottom of the glass and then slide your finger around and around the top of the glass.
As you move your finger, the glass will vibrate. Move it just right (a function of the amount of water and the thickness of the glass) and the glass starts to sing. Do it really well and it sings so loud you might be able to shatter the glass and get into all sorts of trouble.
This is what most marketers seek (not the trouble part, the singing part).
The market awaits your innovation. Things that might make it vibrate and resonate don't work. Then some do. It's not always obvious before you start what the right entry point is, what the right product is, what the right speed is. And knowing that you don't know is the most important place to start.
Honing your music or your presentation or your business plan or your store's inventory are all efforts to resonate. Smart marketers are hyper-alert for what's working, for what's starting to get people to prick their ears. Just like the glass, you have a touch, you adjust, you listen, you adjust again.
More Recent Articles
- "I don't have any good ideas"
- Problems and constraints
- Do more vs. do better
- Alienating the 2%
- Childish vs. childlike
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marți, 9 noiembrie 2010
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- NFIB Report Shows Lack of Sales Still #1 Problem of Small Businesses, Inflation Barely Registers
- Telling Signs-of-the-Times: Layaways, Off-Brands, Goodwill Stores, Consignment Sales, Frugality, all Thrive in Middle-Class Suburbia
- Ceridian Report says "Shipping Decline Signals Weaker Holiday Season"; Phone and Email Interview with Ceridian Chief Economist Ed Leamer
- 1.5+ Million Non-Business Bankruptcy Filings in Fiscal 2010, 14% Increase
| NFIB Report Shows Lack of Sales Still #1 Problem of Small Businesses, Inflation Barely Registers Posted: 09 Nov 2010 09:00 PM PST Inquiring minds are digging into the November NFIB Small Business Trends Report for clues about the health of the economy and the plight of small businesses. Once again the number one problem facing small business owners is lack of sales. The second biggest concern is taxes. In spite of a huge surge in commodity prices, inflation barely registered as a concern. From the NFIB Report ... OPTIMISM INDEXOptimism Index How much of the rise in optimism is due to expectations of a Republican takeover of Congress that happened? It is no secret that small businesses do not much care of Obama.  Most Important Problem Please compare inflation to sales, taxes, competition from big business, and taxes. Inflation barely registers.  Sales and Taxes are Two Biggest Problems  Inflation Is A Non-Issue  Historically inflation measured as a big concern in the mid-to-late 1970's. Inflation concerns spiked again in the summer of 2008 along with gas prices. In spite of a huge recent rally in commodities there is no fear of inflation now. From the report "Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising prices was a net negative five percent, a six point increase from September. Plans to raise prices rose five points to a net seasonally adjusted 12 percent of owners. However, most plans to raise prices have been frustrated by the recession and weak sales during the past few years." The number of business owners raising prices is a net negative 5%. The profit squeeze continues as small businesses are not able to pass along rising input prices. The result is easy to spot: " far more owners report that earnings are deteriorating quarter on quarter than rising." There are many more charts in the 23 page PDF. Inquiring minds will want to give it a look. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 09 Nov 2010 12:47 PM PST Telling Signs-of-the-Times: In grocery stores, "No-Name" sales are up 2% and now represent 22% of total sales. Some full priced stores now offer consignment sections, an unheard of practice a couple years back. Layaway sales are back in vogue at Toys-R-Us and jewelers alike. Layaways are a depression era phenomenon that all but died with the mass marketing of credit cards. Old Stigmas Become New Badge of Honor Frugality is the new "badge of honor" says the Yahoo!Finance report In a tough economy, old stigmas fall away The Goodwill store in this middle-class New York suburb is buzzing on a recent weekend afternoon. A steady flow of shoppers comb through racks filled with second-hand clothes, shoes, blankets and dishes.Attitudes - Bernanke's Biggest, Most Futile Fight I have been talking about Frugality for over two years. In case you missed it, please consider Please consider Teenagers Scared Over Plight of their Parents; Attitudes - Bernanke's Biggest, Most Futile Fight That post contains an email from "Nancy Drew" about her daughters, aged 15 and 17 with their friends scared half-to-death about their parents' financial woes. Flashback June 25, 2008: Peak Credit Lessons Of The Great Depression ForgottenFor more on attitudes please see:
Every place you look, be it housing, education, or public unions, attitudes towards debt, lending, and the role of government are changing. It is precisely those changing social attitudes why Bernanke is losing and will lose the battle against deflation.Attitudes Still Rule QEII did not change a thing, except to encourage more short-term speculation. Long-term, attitudes still rule, and "Telling Signs-of-the-Times" are all you need to know about the direction of attitudes. Talk of hyperinflation or even strong inflation is complete nonsense with this backdrop in attitudes. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 09 Nov 2010 10:41 AM PST Last night I had the pleasure of speaking with Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast about the Ceridian shipping index and what trends in fuel usage suggest about holiday sales. We also discussed the likelihood of a double-dip recession. First let's take a look at the report. Recovery Time-Out It's a "Recovery Time-Out" says the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ for October 2010. Holiday Season Begins on a Down NoteThose are 2 of 10 charts and tables in the report. Inquiring minds will want to give the report a closer look. The Ceridian-UCLA Home Page contains additional commentary plus an interactive graph as well as an animated video. Over the Road Trucked Shipping Decline Signals Weaker Holiday SeasonInterview With Ed Leamer Yesterday I was asked by Cerdian if I would like to speak with Ed Leamer about their shipping index. Here are a few questions I submitted accompanied by responses from Leamer. Mish: Does the drop-off in shipping signal anything definite about real demand or is it merely a sign that inventory replenishment is over? Isn't that the crux of the problem in interpreting your data? Leamer: As we discussed on the phone, the continued increase in shipping after the inventory replenishment at the beginning of this year depended on increases in sales (with a constant inventory/sales ratio), and the drop-off in shipping suggests that there hasn't been much to replace what was sure to be a temporary driver – inventories. Mish: How do you reconcile recent hiring, and more specifically holiday season hiring plans by retail stores in light of a shipping slowdown? Are stores making a mistake by increasing hiring? Leamer: Be aware that on a year over year basis October shipping is up 4.1% which suggests a need for more seasonal hiring than last year on the order of 1%. The weakness is in the second half of that October-October year. (the critical half for thinking about the future) Mish: Do you have an actual forecast for holiday sales in percentage terms, if so what? (e.g. -1% to +1% or whatever) Leamer: Our formal forecast model doesn't have retail sales as one of the variables, but our forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter is 2.1%, quarter over quarter, annualized. Tepid growth. Mish: What is the likelihood consumer attitudes change for the better or worse in December, regardless of what Gallup and other surveys suggest right now, and regardless of what Ceridian suggests? Leamer: It doesn't matter what they say to Gallup, what matters is what they do, which is subject to some serious uncertainty but there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon, like a big surge in jobs, that is going to improve the mood. Fortunately, fear of another Great Depression is dissipating. Mish: Given that much of the rise in shipping, hiring, ISM etc, has been inventory replenishment, and given pending cutbacks in municipal and state budgets, why should anyone want to rule out a double-dip? Leamer: Dips come from collective postponement of the postponeable purchases: homes, cars and equipment. But all three of these are at record lows relative to GDP after all the postponement that has already occurred. (After having falling to the floor, the economy has to at least get back to its knees before it can fall again.) Phone Notes Here are a few additional notes I made from our phone conversation.
Structurally High Unemployment Here to Stay I believe we are going to have structurally high unemployment for a decade. The San Francisco Fed ruled it out. You can see my rationale in Common Sense vs. Academic Formulas; Fed Concludes Structurally High Unemployment is a Myth To those arguments I would like to add the fact that boomers are ill-prepared for retirement. They need to work longer than they expected. Their homes are not the retirement plans they once thought. Equity extraction for consumption is over. In many cases there is no equity to begin with. The only reason the unemployment rate is not above 10% now, is the participation rate (labor force), has been falling like a rock. Duration of Unemployment BLS Table A-12 tells a sad story. Over 6.2 million unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or more. That is 41.8% of the total. Once you lose your job, it is likely to be gone for a while.  Unless Congress extends unemployment benefits in the November lame-duck session, an estimated 2+ million would-be workers, will lose their benefits. Stop and think as to what that might mean for spending, bankruptcies, foreclosures, etc. No doubt that is weighing on consumer psychology, and it will continue to weigh on consumer psychology until there is a meaningful uptick in jobs. Final Thoughts Here is a point I made over two years ago that has now come to fruition: "Boomers will be competing against their kids and grandkids for jobs at Walmart and McDonalds." Look at the average age of greeters at Walmart and the ages of some employees at fast-food restaurants. Think those people are working because they want to work or because they need to work? Now look at things from the perspective of management. Would you rather hire someone over 62 who collects Medicare or someone 25 starting a family in need of family medical insurance? What about kids are graduating from college with no prospects of a job and moving back home with mom and dad? What does that do to family formation and the need for goods and services? Avoiding the Double-Dip? Bernanke is certainly doing everything he can to avoid a double-dip, but it is highly unlikely QEII will do any good. I made the case in Three Reasons QEII Will "Backfire"; Pavlov's Dogs and the "No Choice" Argument Yet Again. Please give that a read if you have not yet done so. If Congress raises taxes and does not extend unemployment benefits I think a double-dip recession is a given. Regardless, if "housing is the business cycle" then things prospects for jobs do not look good, whether there is a double-dip or not. In conclusion, we are likely in for a period of low-growth or no-growth accompanied by painfully high unemployment for quite some time. Is that what the stock market has priced in? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| 1.5+ Million Non-Business Bankruptcy Filings in Fiscal 2010, 14% Increase Posted: 09 Nov 2010 08:19 AM PST CNNMoney reports Bankruptcy filings jump 14% in 2010 In the federal government's fiscal year 2010, which ended September 30, more than 1.5 million non-business bankruptcy filings were processed, according to data released Monday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. That's up more than 14% from fiscal 2009, when about 1.3 million personal bankruptcies were filed.The facts show that in spite of lender sponsored legislation to make people debt slaves forever, 73% of bankruptcies were chapter 7. Given there is no driver for jobs, and structurally high unemployment will be with us for as long as a decade, expect to see high rates of bankruptcies for a long time. Please see see Common Sense vs. Academic Formulas; Fed Concludes Structurally High Unemployment is a Myth for a discussion of why the Fed is wrong when it concludes structural unemployment is "likely to be transitory rather than permanent". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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