Central Perk

duminică, 12 decembrie 2010

Seth's Blog : Everyone and no one

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Everyone and no one

Two things are always not true:

Everyone likes this.

No one likes this.

Sorry.

If you try to please everyone, the few you don't delight will either ruin your day or ruin your sense of what sort of product you should make.

And if you believe the critic who insists that no one is going to like what you made, you will walk away from a useful niche.

One other thing: Sometimes it's easy to confuse, "the small cadre of people I want to impress because my ego demands that this 'in' group is important," with "everyone." They're not the same.

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sâmbătă, 11 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Nine Simple Questions; The Fed? Ron Paul’s Not a Fan; Bonus 10th Question

Posted: 11 Dec 2010 05:23 PM PST

When it comes to the Fed, military spending, bailouts, and upholding the constitution, Ron Paul stands alone, and he is about to make Bernanke miserable.

Please consider The Fed? Ron Paul's Not a Fan

On Thursday, House Republican leaders announced that Representative Ron Paul of Texas, the outspoken Republican libertarian who ran for president in 2008, will become the chairman of the subcommittee that oversees the Fed. His position on the central bank is captured in the title of his 2009 book, "End the Fed". Here's some of what he wrote:

The Gold Standard

"Whenever I talk of a gold standard, there are always people ready to accuse me of having some obsession or fixation. Fetish is a word thrown around. In fact, I'm only observing reality: the idea of sound money in most of human history has been bound up with gold money."

A Full-Time Counterfeiting Operation

On Mr. Bernanke: "There is something fishy about the head of the world's most powerful government bureaucracy, one that is involved in a full-time counterfeiting operation to sustain monopolistic financial cartels, and the world's most powerful central planner, who sets the price of money worldwide, proclaiming the glories of capitalism."

New Money Out of Thin Air

"Only the Federal Reserve can inflate the currency, creating new money and credit out of thin air, in secrecy, without oversight or supervision. Inflation facilitates deficits, needless wars and excessive welfare spending."

Low Interest Rates

"Artificially low interest rates are achieved by inflating the money supply, and they penalize the thrifty and cheat those who save. They promote consumption and borrowing over savings and investing. Manipulating interest rates is an immoral act. It's economically destructive."

The Obama Legacy

"For the same reason a disease cannot be cured by more of the germ that caused it, the inflation and debt accumulation of the Obama years will not inflate our way out of it. This depression will likely last and last."

See the article for more select quotes regarding The Bailouts, The Beginning of the End, and Fed Chairman He Has Known.

Ron Paul's Nine Questions

In case you missed Ron Paul's passionate speech on Wikileaks please watch. this video.

With a tip of the hat to From The Old here are the questions Ron Paul asked in his speech.

Number 1: Do the America People deserve know the truth regarding the ongoing wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen?

Number 2: Could a larger question be how can an army private access so much secret information?

Number 3: Why is the hostility directed at Assange, the publisher, and not at our governments failure to protect classified information?

Number 4: Are we getting our moneys worth of the 80 Billion dollars per year spent on intelligence gathering?

Number 5: Which has resulted in the greatest number of deaths: lying us into war or Wikileaks revelations or the release of the Pentagon Papers?

Number 6: If Assange can be convicted of a crime for publishing information that he did not steal, what does this say about the future of the first amendment and the independence of the internet?

Number 7: Could it be that the real reason for the near universal attacks on Wikileaks is more about secretly maintaining a seriously flawed foreign policy of empire than it is about national security?

Number 8: Is there not a huge difference between releasing secret information to help the enemy in a time of declared war, which is treason, and the releasing of information to expose our government lies that promote secret wars, death and corruption?

Number 9: Was it not once considered patriotic to stand up to our government when it is wrong?

Thomas Jefferson had it right when he advised 'Let the eyes of vigilance never be closed'

Please note the common sense discussion of Ron Paul vs. the completely hysterical (as well as totally misguided) reaction of Sarah Palin: "Assange is an anti-American operative with blood on his hands. Why was he not pursued with the same urgency we pursue al Qaeda and Taliban leaders?"

My response:
Excuse me for asking but since when does exposing corruption and hypocrisy make one an al Qaeda' terrorist? Is the whole world supposed to stand up and salute our illegal wars, our torture of civilians, our holding of prisoners in Cuba with no charges being filed. Are we supposed to salute or simply look away from fraud by our banks and coverups in our Treasury department?

Assange is not even a US citizen. Clearly, Sara Palin is not capable of figuring out the implications of her proposal to hunt down foreigners allegedly in violation of US laws.

If we can prosecute others for violating our laws (if Assange even did such a thing), then why can't Iran or Iraq prosecute George Bush for violation of their laws?

Bonus 10th Question

Here is a key 10th question Ron Paul failed to ask: Since when does the US have the right to impose its laws on the rest of the world?

The answer, no matter what neocons may think, is "we don't".

Sara Palin cannot think clearly, she just reacts, perpetually grubbing for attention. The simple truth of the matter is she is not fit for office no matter how much media attention she receives. Hopefully Republicans come to their senses regarding her electability before it's too late.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Chicago's Mayor Daley Discusses Bankruptcy For City Pensions

Posted: 11 Dec 2010 10:56 AM PST

Mayor Daley is begging Governor Quinn for pension reform.

Quinn now has on his desk a bill that would allow state to withhold sales tax and income tax revenue from cities that won't do more to fund their pension plans.

Property taxes will have to go up for cities to meet their pension obligations and that is on top of a massive income tax hike that governor Quinn campaigned for.

Daley, aldermen ask Quinn to veto pension measure

The Chicago Tribune reports Daley, aldermen ask Quinn to veto pension measure

Mayor Richard Daley this afternoon expressed his frustration with the city's pension situation, suggesting that the retirement funds need to be fixed before leaders are forced to declare them bankrupt as a way to restructure.

Speaking on a Global Metro Summit panel at the University of Illinois-Chicago with Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Daley at first appeared to indicate that allowing the pensions to go bankrupt so they could be reorganized was something he believes could happen.

"I'm one who believes that pension funds can go bankrupt and then you reorganize, and that's the hardest thing to say," Daley said.

Moderator Richard Stengel, managing editor of Time Magazine, then asked Daley: "Let them go bankrupt?"

"Yes, and then you reorganize it," Daley replied.

The mayor's comments came after much of the Chicago City Council sent a letter to Gov. Pat Quinn today urging him not to sign a pension reform bill passed by the General Assembly and Daley again lambasted the plan.

Daley has been publicly attacking the bill at every opportunity over the past week, saying it would lead to the biggest property tax increase in Chicago history. Daley said he doesn't know whether Quinn will listen to Chicago officials' pleas not to sign the legislation, but he said he and Quinn have different views on raising taxes.

"(Quinn) wants to tax people. What can I do?" Daley said.

"We can't go tax crazy, but people may want to go tax crazy," the mayor said.

The bill requires municipalities move toward funding police and fire pensions up to 90 percent of obligations by 2040, and allows the state to withhold sales tax and income tax revenue from cities that don't do so. Daley says that to meet the pension funding standard would require a $550 million property tax hike in Chicago.

A letter to Quinn signed by 43 of Chicago's 50 aldermen acknowledges the need for pension reform, but says any legislation should include increased employee contributions and lower benefit payouts.

Now?! Why Now?

Now Daley is whining. Now?! Why Now?

He should have thought about this before the election. Quinn campaigned on a pledge to raise the state income tax by 33% (from 3% to 4%) thereby buying the vote of every public union worker in the state.

Who is to blame if not Daley and idiots in Chicago who voted to return Quinn to office by a margin of 87% to 13%, hundreds of thousands of votes.

All it would have taken to defeat Quinn was one simple statement by Daley endorsing Bill Brady. Quinn won the election by 19,000 votes out of over 3.6 million cast. Quinn's margin of victory was 46.6% to 46.1%.

Daley could have gotten any favor he wanted for endorsing Brady. Any! But no! Daley sat on his ass and let this happen.

Chicago deserves to suffer. The whole rest of the state shouldn't have to. But it will, and Mayor Daley is to blame.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Your Weekly Address: Protecting the Middle Class and the Economy

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, Dec. 11, 2010

Your Weekly Address: Protecting the Middle Class & the Economy

The President strongly urges both parties in Congress to pass the compromise on tax cuts, unemployment insurance, and job creation. Not doing so would hurt the middle class, those struggling to find work, and the economy itself.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

Framework on Tax Cuts: Austan Goolsbee’s breaks it down on the White Board, a chart on wins for working families and more information on how this bipartisan agreement delivers key victories that will give the average American family assurance that there will be more money to pay the bills each month. Learn more about the framework on tax cuts, unemployment insurance and jobs.

DREAM: "Now is the time to press on with our full support for the DREAM Act. We’re closer than we’ve ever been and we’re not giving up," Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. Read the post.

West Wing Week: “It’s alive!” Watch the video.

Notable Number: $2,500. Learn more about how the President saved more than 8 million students that much in tuition costs.

New Photos: 1 of 80 new behind-the-scenes shots from the month November, thanks to the White House Photo Office.

A Symbol of Hope: The menorah used at the White House Hanukkah ceremony -- on loan from a congregation in New Orleans -- is one of very few items from the congregation that survived the devastation of Katrina. Watch a short video.

#1q: Press Secretary Gibbs answers your Twitter questions on unemployment benefits and bickering between Republicans and Democrats. Watch the video response.

Tuesday Talks: This week featured a panel on the Open Government Directive, which requires federal agencies to take steps to achieve key milestones in transparency, participation, and collaboration. Watch the video. Next week, join us for a talk on the White House Fellows Program.

“A Good Deal for the American People”: President Obama holds a press conference about the tax cut compromise framework. Watch the video.

Let There Be Light: The First Family lights the National Christmas Tree with a little help from B.B. King, Sara Bareilles, Common, Maroon 5 and more. Watch the video.

Treasury 2.0: The Department of Treasury launches a new website with data visualizations, FAST search technology and a blog. Take a look at the new website.

“Our Generation’s Sputnik Moment”: While visiting Forsyth Technical Community College in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, President Obama speaks about his vision and his specific proposals for strengthening the economy.

Into the Wild: The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is the only place in America where polar bears can be found in their natural habitat, it also just celebrated its 50^th anniversary. Learn more about America’s largest National Wildlife Refuge.

Inside the Cabinet: President Obama holds a Cabinet meeting, get a glimpse inside the meeting with these behind-the-scenes photos.

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Seth's Blog : "The answer is simple"

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

"The answer is simple"

...is always more effective a response than, "well, it's complicated."

One challenge analysts face is that their answers are often a lot more complicated than the simplistic (and wrong) fables that are peddled by those that would mislead and deceive. Same thing is true for many non-profits doing important work.

We're not going to have a lot of luck persuading masses of semi-interested people to seek out and embrace complicated answers, but we can take two steps to lead to better information exchange:

1. Take complicated overall answers and make them simple steps instead. Teach complexity over time, simply.

2. Teach a few people, the committed, to embrace the idea of complexity. That's what a great college education does, for example. That's what makes someone a statesman instead of a demagogue. Embracing complexity is a scarce trait, worth acquiring. But until your customers/voters/employees do, I think the first strategy is essential.

You can't sell complicated to someone who came to you to buy simple.

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vineri, 10 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bond Massacre Hits Treasuries, TIPs, Munis, Mortgages; PIMCO Among Biggest Losers; Is the Bond Bull Finally Over?
Investors Hold Biggest Commodity Positions On Record; Viral Nonsense About Silver
What does the "Take this Job and Shove-It Indicator" say about the Economy?

Bond Massacre Hits Treasuries, TIPs, Munis, Mortgages; PIMCO Among Biggest Losers; Is the Bond Bull Finally Over?

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 04:45 PM PST

The treasury market has slapped Bernanke silly. Yields have soared ever since QE II was finalized in November. Mortgage rates are up a half-percent in a month and Bankrate shows they are about at the same level as a year ago. Treasuries, TIPS, and municipal bond funds have all been hit hard in the past few weeks. Matters took a turn for the worse when President Obama agreed to a tax compromise that will cost close to $900 billion.

With that backdrop, please consider Pimco Total Return Among Biggest Losers as Bond Rally Fizzles

Bill Gross's Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest mutual fund, was the second-biggest decliner among the largest U.S. bond managers in the past month as clients pulled money for the first time in two years amid a selloff in Treasuries.

The $250 billion Pimco Total Return fell 3 percent in the 30 days through Dec. 8, trailing all but one of the 10 largest bond mutual funds, which lost an average of 2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Only the $33 billion Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund declined more, falling 3.9 percent in the period.

Benchmark 10-year Treasuries had their biggest two-day slump since September 2008 this week after tax cuts, signs of an economic recovery and asset purchases by the Federal Reserve fueled expectations inflation will accelerate. The losses may surprise investors who poured $267 billion into fixed income funds this year through October, ignoring warnings by Gross that the 30-year bond rally may have run its course.

"This is a very violent move we had this week," said Richard Saperstein, managing director at Treasury Partners in New York, which oversees $10 billion in assets. "I think we're going to have a very volatile bond cycle here over the next two years."

"Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder's friend," Gross wrote in monthly investment outlook on Pimco's website on Oct. 27. "It is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. It raises bond prices to create the illusion of high annual returns, but ultimately it reaches a dead end where those prices can no longer go up."

Tax-exempt bonds had their worst monthly returns of 2010 in November as rising U.S. Treasury yields and record state and local fixed-rate debt sales sparked withdrawals from mutual funds investing in municipal securities. Taxable bond funds have continued to draw money, ICI data show.

Yield Curve As of 2010-12-10

click on any chart in this post for sharper image

Note the bearish flattening of the yield curve. Rates are generally rising but they are rising faster in the middle part of the curve than the long end of the curve. The Fed has pinned the extreme short end if the curve to zero.

Mortgage Rates

Chart courtesy of Bloomberg.

TIPZ - PIMCO Broad US TIPS

TIPZ is down 6.3% since the peak about a month ago, nearly all of its gains for the entire year.

SXMTX - Smith Barney Municipal Fund

SXMTX is down 4.9% since the peak about a month ago, over half of its gains for the entire year. I do not like municipal bonds here at all, for multiple reasons. There is enormous supply coming on, rates in general are going up, I expect bankruptcies to rock the sector next year, and the Build America Bond (BAB) program will likely not be extended, nor should it be. I will have more on BABs early next week.

IEF - Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Fund

IEF is down 6.5% from the highs but it is still up 8.7% since beginning of the year. For IEF and TLT (the Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Fund) we have to watch to see if reflation continues or withers on the vine.

I do not have strong feelings on IEF one way or another. Much depends on the timeframe in which you are trading. However, if yields break substantially North from here, the 30-year bond bull may have breathed its last gasp in October when 3- and 5-year treasury yields hit record lows.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Investors Hold Biggest Commodity Positions On Record; Viral Nonsense About Silver

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 10:30 AM PST

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission says futures positions in commodities are 17% higher now than when the commodity index peaked in June 2008. The Wall Street Journal picks up the story in Investors Pile Into Commodities

Investors are holding their biggest positions on record in the commodities markets as prices surge and debate intensifies among U.S. regulators about whether to limit the amount that any one trader can bet in markets for energy, metals and agricultural products.

Hedge funds, pension funds and mutual funds dramatically ramped up their holdings in everything from oil and natural gas to silver, corn and wheat this year. In many cases, the number of contracts held for individual commodities now far exceeds the amount outstanding in mid-2008, the last time commodity markets were soaring to records and debate raged about whether excessive speculation was driving up prices.

Contracts held by investors have risen 12% this year through October and are 17% higher than June 2008, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the market regulator.

In several commodities, including the $200 billion crude oil market, so-called speculative investors now make up a significantly larger proportion of the market than they did in 2008. Investors increased their bullish bets on crude oil by 24% since June 2008 and now represent 16% of the market, up from 13% just over two years ago. Bets in the copper market are up 58% and for silver they are up 52%, according to the CFTC data.

Debate within the CFTC is adding to the tension. Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, has been pushing fellow commissioners to crack down on excessive speculation.

"Speculative money from the likes of hedge funds, index funds and pension funds is coming into the commodity markets at a blistering pace," Mr. Chilton said in prepared remarks for a speech he plans to make on Wednesday at a conference in New York. He said that while speculation may not drive up prices, it can distort them. "If prices are skewed in a manner that is not fair by speculators, consumers can pay more than they should," he said.

Anti-Fiat Sentiment

The rise in the number of futures contracts is not based on anti-dollar sentiment alone, but rather a distrust of fiat currencies in general.

$CRB Reuters/Jefferies Commodity Index

Commodity prices peaked in June 2008.

$USD - US Dollar Index

The US$ index was 72-74 in June of 2008. The US$ index is 80 now yet the number of futures contracts keeps going up.

The Journal reports ...

The CFTC is under increasing pressure to meet a January deadline set by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law, which requires the regulator to set limits on how many commodity futures contracts in energy and metals a speculator can own. An agriculture proposal is to be implemented by mid April. So far, the agency hasn't developed a formal proposal on position limits; it says it is still collecting data on the over-the-counter market in order to come up with a comprehensive regulatory framework.

Dangerous Position for Commodity Players

The CFTC setups makes for a dangerous situation for commodity investors.

All those screaming about JP Morgan manipulation silver prices should think twice about their screaming. Whatever ruling the CFTC comes up with, if any, that ruling is highly unlikely to be unfavorable to JPM.

Moreover, if the CTFC limits contracts, it will lead to equal long and short liquidations. Mathematically it has to. For every long there is a short.

Guess who will have advance notice?

Viral Nonsense About Silver

Emails and videos regarding silver are going viral. There is no evidence to support the theory that JPM will be forced to cover silver futures no matter how high the price of silver goes.

JPM did not have to cover shorts at $7, at $10, at $15, at $25, or at $30. JPM has been short silver futures for something like forever. If JPM has not been forced to cover yet, perhaps the reasonable conclusion is no price would force JPM to cover shorts. Yet these "force JPM to cover" theories have gone viral with everyone plowing into the buy silver meme.

JPM can easily be hedged. To hedge, all JPM would need to do is offset its short positions with an offsetting position in SLV or some other mechanism.

The ultimate irony would be if JPM gets a small benefit out of rising silver prices. It would not surprise me in the least were that to be the case.

I am a fan of physical gold and silver, but I certainly do not advise buying silver because of some alleged short squeeze that is unlikely at any price.

Thoughts on Controlling Speculation

Speculation in commodities is a measure of distrust in fiat currencies in general. China, Great Britain, Europe, and the US are all engaged in various beggar-thy-neighbor competitive currency debasement policies.

The proper way to stop commodity speculation (and a vast number of other problems far more important than commodity speculation) is to fix the root cause of speculation (currency debasement), not to place limits (long or short) on the number of futures.

Addendum:

Shortly after writing the above I received an email from "KD" regarding JP Morgan and the Massive Silver Short - The Greatest Story Ever Told

In his post that I had not yet seen, KD came to the same conclusions as I did above. We arrived at our conclusions independently. Moreover, he put the numbers together to show JPM cannot possibly be short the amount of silver that Max Keiser says.

KD concludes "If the long contract holders think there is a massive shortage of physical silver, why don't they just force the sellers to deliver the physical and create their own squeeze?"

I have made similar comments myself many times. However, were that to happen, the CTFC probably would step in.

Finally, Max Keiser is a friend. I just happen to think he is wrong on this issue.

Addendum 2:

My friend "HB" at the Acting Man blog chimes in with these thoughts:

This stuff people are putting out about JPM's silver short is really a pile of crap.

The biggest problem JPM might have could relate to the term structure of their shorts and offsetting longs. The OTC longs where they are counterparties to miner forwards have delivery schedules stretching out to up to 10 years, while they can only hedge at COMEX in the front month contract (due to other contracts not having enough liquidity) and have to roll that over.

So if someone were to ask for huge deliveries like the Hunts did, then there could really be a problem - alas, absent the Hunts, it just doesn't happen.

Note also, no one has as of yet reported any big losses in silver, which would have happened some time ago if the commercial shorts were 'naked'. I find it far more likely that there will one day be a problem involving unallocated gold accounts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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What does the "Take this Job and Shove-It Indicator" say about the Economy?

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 12:35 AM PST

With a salute to Johnny Paycheck, inquiring minds are investigating the CNBC claim 'Shove It' Indicator Turns Positive: More People Quitting

Call it the "Take This Job and Shove It" indicator. The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that an increasing number of people are quitting their jobs, a sign of an upturn in consumer confidence and the economy, according to one economist.

"There is one area where there does appear to be some additional risk taking, and that is seen in the number of people leaving their jobs," said Don Rissmiller, economist for Strategas Research Partners. "The last time we saw an inflection point of this sort in the number of people quitting their jobs, we were at the end of the last 'jobless recovery' in 2003."

In October 2 million individuals quit their jobs, up from 1.7 million during the same month a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On its web site, the BLS states, "Quits tend to rise when there is a perception that another job is available and tend to fall when there is a perception that jobs are scarce."

The rise in quitting is accompanied by an increase in the job outlook in the latest survey by staffing firm Manpower and an ISM survey of managers indicating bigger capital expenditures planned for next year, Rissmiller points out in his note.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

With that lead-in let's turn our focus on the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October 2010.

Number of Unemployed Per Job Opening

click on any chart in this post for a sharper image

While admitting the trend looks very favorable, please note the ratio was 2.0 at the end of the 2001 recession. It is roughly 4.5 now. Furthermore, at the end of the last recession, the indicator rose for another 2 years.

Here is the alleged Take This Job and Shove It" indicator.

Quits vs. Layoffs and Discharges

While this indicator did indeed turn up (making a higher low in December 2009), the indicator has done little but flatline since April 2010, a full 6 months. Maybe it continues and maybe it doesn't. Moreover, it has to rise by another 500,000 just to get to the August 2003 low.

Note that layoffs and discharges did revert to the mean plus an overshoot which should be expected. The number of quits is nowhere near its trendline.

Weekly Unemployment Claims

Today's weekly unemployment claims number remains headed in the right direction, but +421,00 is hardly anything to crow about except in relative terms.

The 4-week moving average of weekly claims shows that things are definitely getting better. However, the number of weekly claims is still at mid-recession levels of the past 5 recessions. Worse yet, claims are falling much slower than any previous recession to get to this 420,000 level.

Population Changes

For more discrepancies please consider the BLS November Jobs Report

The unemployment rate is based off the BLS household survey. The November numbers follow.

Last year the civilian population rose by 1,972,000. However, the labor force rose by a mere 287,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,686,000. Had it not been for the drop in participation rate, the unemployment rate would have been 10.8%. Here is the math ((15,119+1,686)/(154,007+1,686) ) * 100 = 10.8%

US Population vs. Employment, vs. Labor Force, vs. Continued Unemployed

The recent spike in continued unemployed is especially aggravating given the flat growth in employment.

6 Million Benefits Paying Jobs Vanish

Please consider 6 Million Benefits-Paying Jobs Vanish and Unemployment Rate Drops!

Analysis of weekly unemployment data and covered employees shows that 5,977,844 benefit-paying jobs have been lost in the last year.

click on chart for sharper image

The above chart is from reader Tim Wallace. I added the date and numeric annotations. Thanks Tim!

Covered Employment Stats of Merit

Covered employment is back to 2004 levels.
Close to 6 million benefits paying jobs have vanished in a year.
Over 8 million benefits paying jobs have vanished since the 2008 peak.

What is a Covered Employee?

The exact meaning of "covered employee" varies slightly state to state, but not by much. In simple terms it means one is eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.

Most states exclude the self-employed, commission based employment such as real estate agents, those in student training programs, academic and hospital internships, employment by churches or religious organizations, and rehabilitation programs.

Self-employed individuals must pay into unemployment insurance programs, however, the self-employed are not eligible for benefits anywhere.

Nearly 6 Million Jobs Vanish

By the above interpretation, it is safe to conclude that 5,977,844 jobs totally vanished (not just benefit paying jobs).

The only way that cannot be true is if there was a sudden shocking increase in the number of real estate agents, church hiring, or close to 6 million people all of a sudden decided to go into business for themselves.

Although employment is not in the depths of hell like it was in late 2008, and while the "Shove-It Indicator" is a positive divergence (assuming it continues up), it is one hell of a stretch to parlay this into the idea that employment approaches a self-sustaining inflection point.

There is far more going on than the "Shove-It Indicator" allegedly indicates, especially since it is flatlining.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

duminică, 12 decembrie 2010

Seth's Blog : Everyone and no one

Everyone and no one

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Your Weekly Address: Protecting the Middle Class and the Economy

Seth's Blog : "The answer is simple"

"The answer is simple"

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