sâmbătă, 1 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


In Praise of Volunteer Fire Departments (Do we really need paid union fire departments anywhere? What about police?)

Posted: 01 Jan 2011 12:33 PM PST

In response to "Crash Tax" Ripoff Expands in California and New York I received an email from "MB" a 20 year career police officer and firefighter who writes ...
Hello Mish

I have been an avid reader of your blog for the last. I place great value on your economic analysis particularly in regards to the dangers of unbridled debt accumulation. I am a police officer and firefighter with more than 20 years of service behind me. I am a member of a union though I am definitely not a union proponent. Our pension is entirely funded by member contributions. The city I work for has not contributed a dime to it in over 17 years.

There is no doubt that some police and fire unions are very insensitive to the strains they place on taxpayers. I for one do not believe in government taking from others to pay for my retirement. Considering that you read numerous accounts of greedy union bosses, I can understand some of your less than flattering characterizations of those in my profession.

Though I absolutely agree that charging accident victims for emergency response is double dipping the taxpayer, your comments insisting that anyone could competently do my job on whim to get out of property taxes is ludicrous. If one of your loved ones was trapped in a burning building or held by a violent criminal, would you be content have your neighbor the tax attorney try to save them?

Happy New Year
MB
Trapped Loved Ones

I expected a lot of flak over that post, yet that mild rebuttal was all that came in. Let's start with "MB's" final question: "If one of your loved ones was trapped in a burning building or held by a violent criminal, would you be content have your neighbor the tax attorney try to save them?"

Of course not. I never implied I would. That does not mean I want to pay union salaries or wages either. I certainly would not be opposed to having trained sheriffs respond to someone being held by a violent criminal. And I would not mind having someone from a volunteer fire department respond to an accident or fire.

73% of Firefighters are Volunteers Already

According to the National Volunteer Fire Council, 73 percent of firefighters in the United States are members of Volunteer Fire Fighters.

I fail to see why 95% or even 99% percent of them could not be. Perhaps some would not do it for property tax reductions. Perhaps it depends on what one's property taxes are. Perhaps not. Those 73% right now get nothing at all!

Let's look at it another way. How many would do it for tax rebates plus $500 a month tax free to both state and federal government?

With unemployment at 10% and underemployment at 20%, I bet I could fill every fire department in the country.

Would those people require training? Of course they would. Moreover, we would need a phase-in transition period to get to an all-volunteer state. I would not want all rookies, nor would anyone else. Thus, we could not get to 99% overnight. Could we get there in 5-7 years? Yes, we could.

Pensions

MB claimed "Our pension is entirely funded by member contributions".

No, it's not. It is 100% funded by taxpayers. Taxpayers pay 100% of police and firefighters' salary. Police and firefighters put some of their salary into a pension plan (percentage widely varies by city), but the source of the money is the taxpayer.

"MB's" particular case may be different, but most often the city (taxpayers) contribute the vast majority of what goes into these plans. Even in cases where the police and firefighter contributes 100%, it is important to recognize that money that comes from taxpayers who pay police and fire salaries.

Finally, if one took the typically paltry union-member contributions and totaled them up, it would come to far less than the untenable pension benefits that have been promised. That is exactly the source of the pension underfunding right now.

Certainly, not every plan is overly generous. Perhaps "MB's" plans is one of them. However, in cases where cities are in financial trouble, the very first place to look for reasons why is untenable wage and benefit packages of public union workers in general (not just police and fire).

My statements do not imply in any way, shape, or form, those police and fire officers are anything but dedicated, hard-working, employees. I suspect most of them are.

I only make the case the plans (in general), are far too generous and have bankrupted numerous cities.

Comments From My Blog

Docberg Writes ...
We had a volunteer department in my home town in its pre-yuppie invasion days, and they were highly trained and very effective. When I was a city administrator, I had both a volunteer fire department and a volunteer rescue squad. Both were staffed with some highly motivated and competent people. But, this was not in California.
Ron Writes ...
Ditto on the volunteer firefighters. We have had them in our community for years and I never felt like we were at a disadvantage. These people donate their time and money to serve their community. They go through extensive training.

I salute all of the volunteer firefighters in our country thank them for their service.
BB Writes ...
Mish - local volunteers are the best 1st responders out there!

When I was 16, my best bud from down the road was T-boned as he
turned into my driveway. The local farmer, volunteer, and 1st responder
was the first adult person on the scene. He ripped the door off the cracked
up Ford Ranger like tinfoil, and administered CPR/1st aid to my buddy.

These volunteers get no union, no pension, no pay.

When I was 29 I woke up at 3am writhing in pain with what I thought
was an appendix bursting. 1st responder? Volunteer EMT/firefighter from
the farm 1/4 mile to the north of me. We cut and split wood every year
together for the last 2 years, as well as hunting the same property together.

My point? know your neighbors because you will depend on them to survive.
Dedicated fire professionals do not want to hear they can be replaced by volunteers, but clearly they can.

Can police officers be replaced by volunteers? In some instances, quite easily. A prime example would be traffic direction duties at events and games. I bet many volunteers would gladly direct traffic for a couple of free tickets to games or concerts. There certainly is no reason to pay police to do those duties, often on overtime.

Can on-call volunteers replace police in a shootout? For the sake of argument let's assume no. However, I bet I could get many Libertarians to say "why not?" Either way, there is nothing that implies the need for unions or excessive pension benefits to the point cities are going bankrupt.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


New Year's Eve Celebration Images From Around The World

Posted: 01 Jan 2011 02:09 AM PST

Here are six of 30 New Year's Eve Celebration Images from around the world.

London



Sydney



Munich



Vienna



New York City



Rio de Janeiro city, Brasil



Happy New Year!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Your Weekly Address: The New Year

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, Jan. 1,  2011
 

West Wing Week: Mailbag Day New Year's Edition

The President resolves to do all he can to get the economy growing and create jobs, and encourages Republicans to embrace their new responsibility to govern.

Watch the video.

Weekly Address

In Case You Missed It

The Year in Photos: 2010
Pete Souza, Director of the White House Photography Office, introduces a new photo gallery of his favorite shots from the last year.

Nearly 1 Million White House Visitor Records Online
As part of his commitment to transparency, President Obama ordered that White House visitor records be released. This White House has released more than 950,000 records to date.

West Wing Week: "Mailbag Day, New Year's Edition"
In this special edition of West Wing Week, look back over the last year, watch the President sign a law getting those loud TV ads under control, and find out the answers to a couple burning questions from the mailbag.

Get Updates

 

 
 
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10 SEO and Web Predictions for 2011​ That Will Most Likely Come True

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 11:57 PM PST

OK, for 2009 and 2010 I had made my huge 30 Web Trends lists. Some of them turned out be true others did not. No surprise here. This year I turned a bit lazy. I won’t offer you 30 predictions for 2011 I’m quite sure about I will predict only the things I’m almost absolutely sure about. OK, maybe some of them are a bit funny or over the top but who wants business as usual?

SEO won’t die in 2010. SEO has been pronounced dead even before the official terms has been coined. In 2011 SEO will be alive and kicking as ever. I don’t even need to get into details here. On the other hand I’m pretty sure that people who call SEO “dead” will again have a huge following.

Google will remain the king of search and it’s business model will also be still more than 90% advertising based. In spite of all the tool and feature creep and the frantic attempts by Google to earn money from other goods and services Google will remain an “advertising company” like Google CEO Eric Schmidt called it. They may remove the search feature altogether though in near future in favor of high quality results (ads).

There won’t be the next big thing in social media, the market is saturated. Even the rise of Foursquare or Tumblr won’t change much. People won’t ecstatically flock to new and more networks or social sites. People are fed up. They don’t want more of the same. I use Tumblr myself but it’s nothing revolutionary, it’s just blogging made simple (again). Still myriads of startups will keep on renaming things and reselling your relationships to yourself and advertisers.

Mobile phones, tablets or Google Chrome network computers won’t change the way we use the Internet much. Why? Do you remember the first portable TV sets from decades ago? Does everybody watch TV “on the go” today? Also is everybody using their mobile phones the surf the Web all the time? Most people want to use a phone as a phone. Some people will browse the Web on the go but mobile phones, tablets and other alternative devices won’t replace notebooks or something. The act of using the Web is not something you naturally do outside of your home or workplace most of time. So while some usage will shift to mobile you don’t have to assume that 2011 will make personal computers obsolete. So mobile and local SEO are important but solely as an addition. On the other hand you might want to throw away all your computers as I’m sure Apple will reinvent them again by taking away features like mouse support.

Search will become more social and social media more searchable. The two, search and social media will merge more and more but neither one will replace the other. In case you consider dropping SEO in favor of social media marketing or vice versa you better think holistically. Alternatively you can decide what you want to stop in 2011, eating or drinking?

SEO will still be considered black magic. Although SEO has gone mainstream a while ago most people will still not get it and thus want to “buy 500 PR5 links for $19″.

The SEO reputation problem will prevail as well and thus even more agencies will try to differentiate themselves by calling themselves search marketing, internet marketing, digital marketing, clean up companies or whatever while basically offering SEO services.

Matt Cutts will keep his job. Spam will still be around, sorry to disappoint you!

Google CEO Eric Schmidt will keep on entertaining us with his Orwellian newspeak on privacy and the likes: “Don’t like Streetview? Just move.”

While Eric Schmidt will entertain us, Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook will keep on annoying us with new even more vexing features and privacy disasters. Advanced “Facebook Stalk” features are already on the way.

So you see 2011 will be quite similar to 2010. The Web is in a phase of slowing down. That’s my overall impression after following it since 1995 and participating since 1997. The above mentioned predictions will most likely come true as they describe processes that are taking place already.

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Related posts:

  1. 2010 Predictions – How Well Did I Do?
  2. 35 SEO & Social Media Expert Interviews
  3. 10 Reasons You Can’t Ignore Google Buzz as an SEO

Seth's Blog : Insurgents and incumbents

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Insurgents and incumbents

Incumbents compromise to please the committee and bend over backwards to defend the status quo.

Insurgents have the ability to work without a committee and to destroy the status quo.

The game is stacked in favor of the insurgents, except--

They're under pressure from boards, investors and neighbors to act like incumbents.

It takes guts to be an insurgent, and even though the asymmetrical nature of challenging the status quo is in their favor, often we find we're short on guts. ... and then the incumbents prevail.

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vineri, 31 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


"Crash Tax" Ripoff Expands in California and New York

Posted: 31 Dec 2010 04:46 PM PST

You pay taxes for services. At least you think you do. Fifty cities in California think you don't. They tax the hell out of you, then bill you if you need services. Drivers who cause accidents in at least 50 cities can be billed for the police and firefighters who show up.

Please consider 'Crash taxes' are growing in popularity among cash-strapped California cities
At least 50 cities in the state have adopted so-called crash-tax laws allowing local governments to seek reimbursement from insurance companies for the costs of sending public emergency crews to accident scenes. The fees can amount to hundreds or even thousands of dollars. If insurers don't pay, cities can hire collection agents to seek payment from the motorists involved.

Sacramento, with nearly half a million residents, soon could be the largest city in California to do so. The City Council has scheduled a vote next month to establish what it's calling a "fire cost recovery charge." The fee would reimburse the city for a variety of emergency-related chores, including cleaning up hazardous fluids, putting out vehicle fires and responding to gas line explosions and downed power poles. Proposed fees would range from $432 for a "scene stabilization" to $2,275 for a helicopter evacuation. The measure is expected to raise as much as $500,000 a year, city spokeswoman Linda Tucker said.

"To me, it's an outrage. We're already paying these people — the police department, the fire department, the emergency vehicle drivers — handsome salaries and benefits," said Lew Uhler, president of the National Tax Limitation Committee. "Either we stop this kind of nonsense or we should quit paying taxes for these kind of services."

The practice isn't limited to cities in struggling California. It's gaining momentum nationwide as cash-strapped communities seek a way to offset budget cuts.

This month, New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg proposed charging drivers there as much as $490 when firefighters respond to an accident or a vehicle fire, beginning July 1. A public hearing is set for January.

Local taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for accidents they had no part in creating, said Costa Mesa Fire Battalion Chief Bill Kershaw.

"Someone has to pay for the cleanup," he said. "We're subsidizing the insurance companies" if cities don't collect from the responsible parties.

At least 10 states, including Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania, have already banned the collection of accident-response fees, according to A.M. Best Co., an independent insurance information service based in Oldwick, N.J.

But California cities and the companies they hire to collect accident fees are gearing up for a fight. The Strickland bill would prohibit local governments from collecting for all types of emergency services, including fire, police and medical, they said.

Such a ban "could devastate city services and economic health," the League of California Cities said in a letter to lawmakers.

Insurance companies are trying to harness populist antitax sentiment, typified by the "tea party" movement, to protect their own profits, said Rick Benner, chief financial officer of Fire Recovery USA.
The gall of Rick Benner of Fire Recovery USA and Costa Mesa Fire Battalion Chief Bill Kershaw infuriates me.

Firefighters together with police unions they have bankrupted most cities in the nation. Public union firefighters and police (in general) are the most overpaid undeserving ungrateful ingrates the country has ever known.

Those statements will annoy many, but it is the truth, in general, especially for the larger cities. If you are a small town police officer or firefighter with few benefits then what I said may not apply to you.

I would gladly support collection measures if tax dollars did not already go to overbloated, untenable public union pension contracts.

Spare me the sap about how dangerous the jobs are. Please consider the 8 Most Dangerous Jobs in the World

1. Fishermen
2. Pilots and airline employees
3. Loggers
4. Structural construction workers
5. Waste management employees
6. Farmers and ranchers
7. Power-line technicians
8. Roofers

The true heroes deserving of respect and appreciation are volunteer fire departments.

The problem is expenses not lack of revenues. Cities ought to outsource both police and firefighters, the latter to volunteer departments in return for reduced or eliminated property taxes.

How many people do you think would volunteer for a few days a month in return for elimination of property taxes?

I bet enough to get rid of nearly every public union fire department in the country.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Credit Default Swaps PIIGS vs CINN Group (California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey)

Posted: 31 Dec 2010 12:04 PM PST

In response to European Sovereign Debt Crisis in Pictures; PIIGS Spreads to Germany at or Near Record Levels I received this chart from Chris Puplava at Financial Sense.



click on chart for sharper image

Chris writes "In addition to foreign credit risk (Greece, PIIGS), I'm seeing my CINN STATE (CA, IL, NY, NJ) Credit Default Swap (CDS) composite moving higher again."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Housing Bubble in Norway

Posted: 31 Dec 2010 09:40 AM PST

Here is a quick post under the theme "Housing Bubbles Around The World". This one is from Norway, courtesy of reader Espen Johansen.
Dear Mish

Thank you for your effort to spread the economic truth in the jungle of lies. The Norwegian Central Bank and the authorities has fed the bubble monster for years by keeping interest rates too low too long, and the biggest culprit, socializing credit. (We have a socialist/communist government, and have had a blend of that since 1990)

I have tried sending letters to the finance ministry, and the central bank, but no one seem to wake up. About 90 % of all households have Floating rate mortgages.

I do not blame the banks, they know they will be bailed out, and compete doling out as much money as they can to make a profit for share/bondholders with the given terms of a bailout waiting.

A picture says more than a 1000 words, and enclosed are some graphs I believe tell it all.

Sources: The blog "krakk!"
House price indices for Norway

End the central bank cartel, and we will see prosperity and peace.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
Med vennlig hilsen/Best regards
Espen Johansen
Inflation Adjusted Housing Prices In Norway



Norway Homes Prices In Gold



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


European Sovereign Debt Crisis in Pictures; PIIGS Spreads to Germany at or Near Record Levels

Posted: 31 Dec 2010 02:14 AM PST

The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is still simmering. Country by country, spreads to German debt are at or near record levels.

Chart follow snips from German Bonds Climb in 2010 as Fiscal Crisis Roils Euro Area
German bunds climbed this year, the best performance since 2008, as the fiscal crisis that roiled the euro area's most-indebted nations drove investors to the safest fixed-income assets in the region.

Top-rated euro-denominated securities from Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and France led gains in 2010, while the debt of Greece and Ireland, which sought bailouts this year, had the biggest losses among 26 markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.

German bonds returned a profit of almost 6 percent this year, according to the Bloomberg/EFFAS data, compared with a 20 percent loss on Greek debt, a 14 percent slump in Irish securities and an 8 percent decline for Portuguese securities. Spanish and Italian bonds also made a loss as investors demanded increasing yields to own the debt of the euro area's high-deficit nations.

As borrowing costs climbed again amid a wave of sovereign downgrades that saw Greek debt cut to non-investment grade at Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's, Ireland opted on Nov. 28 to follow Greece, accepting an 85 billion-euro bailout. That, too, failed to prevent the spread of the debt crisis, fueling investor concern that Europe's stronger nations may be unwilling or unable to foot the cost of future rescues.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year government bonds instead of German bunds, Europe's benchmark government securities, surged to a euro-era record of 973 basis points on May 7, and was at 953 basis points today. It started the year at 239 basis points. The difference in yield, or spread, between German bonds and 10-year debt from Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy also reached euro-era records.
Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Greece Sovereign Debt Yields



click on chart for sharper image

France, Spain, Belgium, Italy Sovereign Debt Yields



click on chart for sharper image

Sovereign Debt Spread to Germany
Country Jan 01 May 07 Dec 30
Belgium 0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
France0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Greece 2.4% 9.7% 9.5%
Ireland1.4% 3.1% 6.0%
Italy0.3% 1.5% 1.8%
Portugal0.7% 3.5% 3.6%
Spain0.6% 1.6% 2.5%

The bailouts to Greece and Ireland solved nothing. Spain and Portugal are up next. The country to keep an eye on is Italy. It is off nearly everyone's radar right now. Not mine. Italy is simply too big to bail and its spreads are creeping up.

Correction: Second chart as originally posted contained a line for Spain that was actually Portugal a second time. Now corrected.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List