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Reverse Engineer the Search User Posted: 12 Jan 2011 07:48 AM PST Michael Martinez of SEO Theory published an article a few days ago that explains in depth how useless it is to chase Google’s algorithm. I won’t repeat what he wrote here, you can read his explanation in case you haven’t yet: Martinez refers to reverse engineering the Google algorithm as futile and decries good old ranking factors as obsolete. I would probably not go as far as he does but nonetheless my approach is similar. I always tried not to obsess about what Google really counts and what not. I was always keen on knowing what is out there in the know but I followed my own “secret list” of ranking factors.
When I started out in SEO in 2004 the first thing I wanted to sell my first client was a blog: I argued that a user wants to see relevant content on a site and a blog is the easiest way to provide that. By then blogging was popular for 3 years at least but corporate and business blogging was in its infancy. At that time it was still far from apparent that Google prefers blogs in search results. So how did I know?
I was a complete novice to SEO in those days unlike now where many people consider me a must read blogger both on SEOptimise and on my own blog. So sometimes I was wrong or years ahead of time or both. For instance I expected Google to favor whole grammatically correct sentences in the title-tag. I imagined the user wanting something similar to a readable meta description up there in the title not just a stupid list of keywords. For years Google seemed to favor repetition and lists over grammar though but today it’s not that obvious anymore. Proper English ranks as well these days. SEO: short term vs long term So in way I failed in the short term then. On the other hand reverse engineering the search user allowed me to provide future proof optimization years in advance. I don’t tell you to abandon well known ranking factors even in case they are not so bullet-proof as we might hope. Combine your knowledge of ranking factors with common sense reverse engineering of the search user though. Start with yourself. Try to sit back and look how you really search. Then combine this with user testing and finally with A/B testing. Chances are that what’s best for the user will also be honored by Google sooner or later. The explanation is quite simple: Google engineers are tweaking their algo constantly to provide users with what they want, when they want and how they want it. So chances are that they discover the same user preferences you do. Attempt to anticipate Google’s next step by looking not at Google but at Google’s source, the actual search user. * Image: Engine by Ack Ook © SEOptimise – Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. Reverse Engineer the Search User Related posts: |
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Have you noticed how upbeat the ads for airlines and banks are?
Judging from the billboards and the newspaper ads, you might be led to believe that Delta is actually a better airline, one that cares. Or that your bank has flexible people eager to bend the rules to help you succeed.
At one level, this is good advertising, because it tells a story that resonates. We want Delta to be the airline it says it is, and so we give them a try.
The problem is this: ads like this actually decrease user satisfaction. If the ad leads to expect one thing and we don't get it, we're more disappointed than if we had gone in with no real expectations at all. Why this matters: if word of mouth is the real advertising, then what you've done is use old-school ad techniques to actually undercut any chance you have to generate new-school results.
So much better to invest that same money in delighting and embracing the customers you already have.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 12 Jan 2011 05:52 PM PST Inquiring minds are investigating the American Securtitization Forum Non-Agency Market Review for December 2010. Throughout this report, "% 60+ DQ, BK, FC, or REO" refers to the percent of loans, by outstanding balance, for which either the borrower is at least 60 days delinquent according to the Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) delinquency methodology, the property is in the process of foreclosure, the property is currently Real Estate Owned by the owner of the loan due to borrower default, or the borrower is currently in bankruptcy.Here are a few of the charts from the report. Click on any chart to see a sharper image. All Products Subprime Alt-A Jumbo Mortgages California Alt-A By County Florida Alt-A By County Option ARMS Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medal Winners Announced
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 12 Jan 2011 01:13 PM PST Robert Lenzner at Forbes writes US Banks Reporting Phantom Income on $1.4 Trillion Delinquent Mortgages The giant US banks have been bailed out again from huge potential writeoffs by loosey-goosey accounting accepted by the accounting profession and the regulators. They are allowed to accrue interest on non-performing mortgages " until the actual foreclosure takes place, which on average takes about 16 months.Purposeful Delays to Inflate Earnings? Some people accuse banks of purposely delaying foreclosures for profit. The idea is complete silliness. Might banks take advantage of ludicrous accounting rules during the foreclosure process? Sure, on that score we can expect them to. It is one of many reasons bank earnings estimates are not believable. In turn, S&P 500 earnings estimates are hugely overstated as well, with obvious implications on the already rich valuation of the US stock market. However, taking advantage of accounting rules and purposeful delays are two different things. Delays cost banks money and they know it. It's even worse now that home prices are falling again. Ironically, the same set of do-gooders who accuse banks of delaying foreclosures are doing everything they can to throw wrenches in the foreclosure process with "show me the note" and other delay tactics. They cheer every court case that delays foreclosures for any reason. In contrast, I think the faster we work through foreclosures, the quicker housing bottoms. States that force a workout process contribute to the delays, ultimately adding to bank losses, while not necessarily doing anything good for the "winner" of a loan modification. Most end up defaulting anyway. How can that possibly be a good thing, for either the lenders or those getting loan modifications? I am all in favor of workouts if lenders feel it is in their best interest to do so. When lenders voluntarily agree to workouts, it is probably in everyone's best interest for the simple reason that a conscious decision based on facts and likely probabilities is better than mandated nonsense. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 12 Jan 2011 11:40 AM PST Inflation is officially running in China at 5%. Unofficially, estimates are 10% or more. Is it just a matter of time before these costs get passed through? The New York Times article Rising Chinese Inflation to Show Up in U.S. Imports suggests just that. When garment buyers from New York show up next month at China's annual trade shows to bargain over next autumn's fashions, many will face sticker shock.Where's The Pass Through? A couple months ago I had a cotton buyer tell me that prices of garments in the US would soar in 2011 because cotton prices are up 35 percent. Actually, cotton futures are up 100% in a year as the following chart shows. Cotton Weekly Chart This year, futures (raw cotton) prices are up 100%, and the buyer's price of cotton is up 35%. From September to November, the price of goods from China in general rose at an annual rate of at a rate of 3.6 percent. How much of that price will make it to the stores? More importantly, how much of the commodity price pressures will make it to the stores in 2011? Clearly it's a guess, but let's take a look at soaring food prices, something less elastic than apparel prices. Soybean Weekly Chart Soybeans did not exceed the 2008 high but are up substantially since early 2010. The same holds true for corn. Corn Weekly Chart Live Cattle Weekly Chart Live cattle prices have taken out the 2008 high and lean hog futures matched the the 2008 highs. Both futures are up substantially on the year. Yet I have seen virtually no passthrough on meat prices at the stores. In fact, I have not seen any hike in meat prices for at least 5 years and I do 90% of our grocery shopping. Bear in mind I only buy what is on sale so I am comparing typical sales prices to typical sales prices. For example, I do not buy pork chops when they are $4.59 lb. Instead I buy center cut chops when they are $2.29 lb or less. Sometimes they drop as low as $1.79 lb. Food Is A Bargain I worked at a grocery store in high school and college. The best price of whole chickens on sale was 21 cents a pound. Farmers were buying them. One farmer came in and bought the limit telling me he could not raise chickens for 21 cents a pound. That was 1970. 41 years later you can routinely get chickens on sale for 59 cents a pound and sometimes even 49 cents a pound. Let's use the former. That's about 2.55% annualized. Had I started with the typical sales price of 25 cents a pound instead of the lowest price I remember, the annualized rate of inflation would be 2.12%. Someone holding out for 49 cents a pound would see an annualized rate of inflation at 1.65%. Meanwhile, college tuition rose from $240 a semester when I started school at the the University of Illinois to about $9,000 semester today, roughly 10.91% a year. Gasoline prices are up about 7.5% per year in the same timeframe. What do people complain about? Food and gasoline because they see food and gasoline prices everyday. From my perspective, food is a bargain and gasoline simply reflects peak oil and rising demand from emerging markets. College costs are absolutely insane. Margin Squeeze at ConAgra The Wall Street Journal reports ConAgra Profit Falls 16%, Pressured by Rising Costs ConAgra Foods Inc. is raising prices in response to higher commodity costs and adjusting merchandising strategies to accommodate consumers who no longer stock up during grocery trips.ConAgra's revenue was up 3% but profit down 16%. Clearly ConAgra has not been able to pass on costs. It attempts to do so now, but will buyers of "Healthy Choice" balk? I bet they do. I scoff at price-hike tactics when according to ConAgra the "consumer response to promotions was weaker-than-expected". Will Healthy Choice and Slim Jim look better at higher prices or will consumers decide to eat healthy and cook dinner themselves? Cereal Wars In a slightly more dated article from November, MarketWatch reports Kellogg profit hurt by cereal-price war Kellogg Co., hammered by price wars in the cereal aisles of U.S. food retailers, reported Tuesday a third-quarter profit that fell 6%.A&P Goes Under A&P, America's first national supermarket chain had 16,000 stores in 1930. It has 395 stores today. It may not have any in a few years. It simply could not keep up with price pressures from Kroger and Walmart. Please consider A&P in Bankruptcy Filing. A&P, the troubled grocer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Sunday, weighed down by a crushing debt load and competition from low-price rivals.Supply vs. Demand Economics For years I have had people telling me that commodity prices will cause consumer prices to skyrocket. Yet, the only place where I have seen consumer prices rise significantly is at the pump. A&P raised prices and went bankrupt in the process. Apparel sales were extremely brisk at Christmas. Will they be as brisk 35% higher? 10% higher? While apparel prices may rise a few percent, margins will likely suffer far more if consumers balk as I expect them to do, or if stores think they have more pricing power than they do and hike prices too fast. Regardless of what happens to raw commodity prices, prices of finished goods and services will only rise if there is consumer demand at those prices. Inflationists never seem to remember this simple economic fact of life. China Overheats Meanwhile China is clearly overheating and that was theme number five of Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011 5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes ComingChina's Foreign Exchange Reserves Jump by Record $199 Billion The Financial Times reports China's forex reserves show record leap China's foreign exchange reserves jumped by a record $199bn in the last quarter of 2010, taking the total to $2,850bn and underlining the continuing imbalances in the global economy.Chinese Lending Greater Than Reported Credit expansion in China is massive, yet under-reported as noted in the Financial Times article China's monetary tightening will be felt around the globe In December, Fitch came out with a report that suggested credit flows in China are as high this year as last — they are just less visible. "Lending has not moderated, it has merely found other channels," the Fitch report states. Fitch said banks were evading stricter lending quotas by securitising loans, selling them to trust companies and then going out and booking more loans.As I have been saying for years, those looking for inflation (credit expansion) or price inflation (a typical symptom) can find it in China. For more on China please see
Strangely, nearly everyone insists inflation is roaring in the US instead of where it is roaring, China and India. The alleged proof of US inflation is a series of widely circulated charts of various commodity prices even though there has been little-to-no passthrough on any consumer prices except gasoline, and home prices are once again falling like a rock. Addendum Regarding Cost-Push Inflation: My friend "HB" writes .... There actually is no such thing as 'cost push inflation'. Think about it - if the money supply were to remain stable (which isn't the case, but hypothetically), then a rise in price of some goods automatically would lead to a fall in prices of some other goods.Thanks "HB" I realize that. I even stated that the idea of cost-push inflation is "silly" once before in "Money's Already Quite Cheap" Cost-Push Inflation?By the way, there is a subtle error in what my friend said. Did you catch it? "Economy-wide , a rise in general prices is only possible if the money supply increases." That is by far the most likely way but it is not the "only" way. If the demand for money drops for any reason, prices will rise. The demand for money (the willingness and ability to hold on to it vs. consume) can change as consumer preferences change. Demographics is one such possibility (think aging boomers). However, temporary changes in consumer preferences for any reason is possible at any time. Nitpicking aside, "HB" is correct. Even with nitpicking, the idea of cost-push inflation is pure nonsense. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Hunting Elephants With Pea Shooters; China Allows Yuan Denominated Accounts in US Banks Posted: 12 Jan 2011 01:39 AM PST Those thinking the Yuan will quickly go soaring to the moon or that China is about to float the Yuan will offer as evidence the New York Times article Chinese Bank Launches Yuan Service in New York. A state-owned Chinese bank says its New York City branch has begun offering accounts denominated in China's tightly controlled yuan in a new move to expand the currency's global reach.Hunting Elephants With Pea Shooters Let's not confuse steps that China needs to take to float the Yuan with reasons it is doing so. This is not about "expansion of scope" or increasing demand. China is looking to deflect criticism of its trade policies and its foreign exchange reserves that jumped $199 billion to a record $2.85 trillion in the 4th quarter of 2010. Congress already has threatened to label China a currency manipulator. China's record jump in forex reserves will add fuel to that fire. This is nothing more than a political ploy that will allow China to report "progress" on trade liberalization and currency policies. Here is some simple math: China would need to open up 10 million accounts in the US, each with the absolute maximum of $20,000 in Yuan holdings, just to reach $200 billion. How likely is that? If it did happen, China would have another $200 billion in US dollar reserves to deal with! Is that what China wants? Allowing US accounts to buy $4,000 worth of Yuan a day, up to $20,000 a year, when China is sitting on $2.85 trillion in reserves already is much like hunting elephants with a pea shooter. It's not meant to do anything other than to make it appear as if something of practical merit is happening. Nonetheless, I fully expect dollar bears and inflationists to be all over this story like sharks on raw meat. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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