joi, 10 februarie 2011

Eclipse Link Cloaker Review Graywolf's SEO Blog

Eclipse Link Cloaker Review Graywolf's SEO Blog


Eclipse Link Cloaker Review

Posted: 10 Feb 2011 07:49 AM PST

Post image for Eclipse Link Cloaker Review

In the past I’ve written about Why I think Affiliates should Cloak Their Links from search engines. I’ve even spoken a few times about how to do it and recommended plugins like GoCodes to help you get from here to there. GoCodes is fine if you aren’t running through a ton of links, or if you use the same links frequently. However if you are working with a datafeed, spreadsheet, or other single use affiliate links, GoCodes just isn’t the right tool for the job … the Eclipse Link Cloaker is …

The Eclipse Link Cloaker isn’t really a cloaking tool, it’s a redirection tool, so it won’t get you in any trouble with the search engines. But, if you use it properly, it’s actually a technique Google recommends. To be clear the Eclipse Link Cloaker is a paid plugin for WordPress, but for $57 it’s a pretty minimal investment if you are serious about affiliate marketing. Here are some of the features of the plugin:

  • You can set it up to automatically cloak all outbound links. I’ll admit this isn’t something most people should  use but there are some situations where it makes sense. I recommend setting it to manual.
  • You can change the redirection folder. This is something I highly recommend doing. I also highly recommend blocking the directory from being crawled using your robots file. Using a redirect through an intermediate page/directory that is blocked using robots is a technique Google is OK with. Really. Go look.
  • You can set it up to work with Google analytics to track your conversions. I’m no analytics guru so I can’t give you a walk through, but I grasp the concept and why it’s important.
  • You can use named redirects if you want to. It makes things easier to work with for links you’ll reuse often.

OK but how do you use a plugin like this to generate income? Here are some ideas …

  • Thinking of publishing a list of suggested gift items for an upcoming holiday like Valentines Day? Pick your 10 best stores from CJ, Linkshare, ShareaSale or any other affiliate program. Hire someone on oDesk to pick out 10 gifts for men, women, husbands, wives, boyfriends, girlfriends, mistresses, and kids and populate a spreadsheet with titles, descriptions, links, and so on. Write a quick formula to convert the spreadsheet data to HTML with the manual cloak activation code and–voila!–instantly masked affiliate links.
  • Do any of your affiliate merchants publish monthly/weekly/daily specials or deals? Write yourself a macro to handle the file and create the HTML automagically. If you do it right, the first time may take a while, but after that it’s a button push. This plugin is especially useful if you need to create a lot of masked links on the fly that will have a limited lifespan.

Is this plugin for you? That really depends on the volume of affiliate links you are going to be pushing out. On this particular blog it’s overkill. In all the years I’ve had this blog there have been less than 50 affiliate links total. However, I’m running this plugin on three other blogs where I push out 50 affiliate links week, so it makes perfect sense there. In my opinion the Eclipse Link Cloaker plugin saved me $57 worth of time in the first week I used it, so I can absolutely justify the purchase. If you’re looking to generate high volume of links quickly and easily, with a minimum of effort I definitely recommend getting Eclipse.
Creative Commons License photo credit: Instant Vantage

tla starter kit

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Eclipse Link Cloaker Review

Let's Move! One Year Later

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, Feb. 10,  2011
 

Let's Move!

Yesterday marked the one year anniversary of Let's Move!, First Lady Michelle Obama's initiative to solve the problem of childhood obesity within a generation. You can learn more about the Let's Move! at LetsMove.gov.

Photo of the Day

First Lady Michelle Obama visits a second grade class at the Burgess-Peterson Academy in Atlanta, Ga., Feb. 9, 201. Mrs. Obama, who marked the first anniversary of the 'Let's Move!' initiative, praised the school for their efforts to promote healthy living. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

So What Does the Clean Air Act Do?
The Clean Air Act gives the Environmental Protection Agency the necessary tools to protect our families from a number of harmful pollutants that can cause asthma and lung disease – especially in children.

Investing in Infrastructure to Build Up Middle-Class Jobs and Long-Term Growth
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner lays out the economic advantages of infrastructure investment.

Voices of Health Reform: Nan’s Story
This series, Voices of Health Reform, highlights how Americans are already benefiting from the health reform law, the Affordable Care Act. This story is about Nan from Chicago.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

9:20 AM: The President departs the White House en route Andrews Air Force Base

9:35 AM: The President departs Andrews Air Force Base en route Marquette, Michigan

11:40 AM: The President arrives in Marquette, Michigan

1:15 PM: The President views the Northern Michigan University’s WiMAX demonstration

1:30 PM: The President delivers remarks on the National Wireless Initiative WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:00 PM: The Vice President meets with police chiefs from around the country to discuss law enforcement issues

3:00 PM: The President departs Marquette, Michigan

4:30 PM: The Vice President meets with Representative Emanuel Cleaver

4:55 PM: The President arrives at Andrews Air Force Base

5:10 PM: The President arrives at the White House

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

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SEOptimise

SEOptimise


36 Must-Read Local SEO/Google Places Resources from 2010/2011

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 05:54 AM PST

At the end of 2010, Google propelled local SEO to new heights by not only showing local results for search queries​ with a local ​modifier (e.g. [seo london]) but letting local results dominate such queries. Additionally, Google shows local results from Google Places by default, without users even adding a geographic signifier. So when you search for for [hotel] from London, you will be directed to hotels in London. This means that

there is a lot of opportunity, commotion and confusion in the SEO industry

and the webmaster community right now. Google seems to experiment a lot with these new local search results and it’s difficult to see a pattern sometimes.

Local SEO differs significantly from conventional organic SEO. First of all you have to register with Google by adding a Google Places profile, and then you have to get reviews aka citations from a set of trusted sites Google uses to rank local results. This is an almost completely new game and most people aren’t good at it yet. Furthermore, Google currently struggles to provide relevant results due to local business owners not yet wholly grasping what’s going on.

While I am not specialized in local SEO like others are, I try to keep up with the changes and read a lot about Google Places and local SEO, the result of which is that I have collected quite an impressive number of related bookmarks. Today I want to share these 36 must-read local SEO/Google Places resources from 2010/2011 with you. Take note that they are in most cases no older than one year, and that I have provided mobile and local SEO resources lists in the past as well. Consider this post to be a follow up.


Tools

While there are plenty of SEO tools out there local SEO are still rare. Nonetheless new tools have already appeared in 2011. At the same time, established services can be used for local SEO as well.​



Google Places

Google Places is the new brand of Google’s Local Business Center and Google Maps combined.  It’s far more prominent in Google’s search results, either based on the query or on clicks on the menu.​



Analytics

Sadly Google Analytics and other web analytics tools can’t by default determine which visitors came via Google Places results. There are ways to tag your local SEO campaigns though, and to track them in Google Analytics.​ You can also follow the Google Places stats itself.​



Citations

Citations are the new links but, unlike links, they are really hard to get and very exclusive. Only a select few websites are used by Google for the Google Places ranking and thus you have to first identify them and then make sure real users go there and actually review your brick and mortar business. These citation-providing sites differ from country to country, so there are UK specific lists of citation sites.​



Ranking factors

Within the embedding of local results right inside the organic search results, a strange mix of ranking signals has been taken into account. To rank in Google Places you have to combine the conventional SEO techniques with almost completely different methods of optimization.​



‘How To’ articles

Understanding local SEO and Google Places results is one thing, but the actual steps to be undertaken, the websites where you can get citations and how to improve your Google Places listing have to be known as well in order to optimise your local business listing.​



Miscellaneous must-read resources

The recent changes in both display and reach of local results on Google have sparked a number of reactions in the SEO blogosphere. Most people agree that the new Google Places integration is a game changer. These postings explain the changes, show the ramifications and ​attempt to predict the future of local SEO.​


* Image by Sean McGrath.


© SEOptimise – Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. 36 Must-Read Local SEO/Google Places Resources from 2010/2011

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Seth's Blog : What's the use case?

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

What's the use case?

Visit an architect. On the first visit, right after shaking your hand, she unrolls plans for a house. "Here are some sketches..."

Wait. That's backward.

Sketches for what? How do you know if I want a house or an office building? How am I to judge these plans? Is it a mind reading exercise?

The most effective way to sell the execution of an idea is to describe the use case first. And before you can do that, you need to have both the trust of your client and enough information to figure out what would delight them.

Then, describe what a great solution would do. "If we could use 10,000 square feet of space to profitably service 100 customers an hour..." or "If we built a website that could convert x percent of ..." or "If we could blend a wine that would appeal to this type of diner..."

After the use case is agreed on, then feel free to share your sketches, brainstorms and mockups. At that point, the only question is, "does this execution support the use case we agreed on?"

Don't show me a project, a website, an ad buy or an essay without first telling me what it's supposed to do when it works properly. First, because I might not want that result. And second, how else am I supposed to judge if it's good or not without knowing what you're trying to do...

Too often, we're in such a hurry to show off what we'd like to build we forget to sell the notion of what we built it for.

 
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miercuri, 9 februarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Cisco Misses Estimates, Warns of Dwindling Public Spending; CEO Chambers Not Worth a Cent; Lather, Rinse, Repeat

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:17 PM PST

I do not often comment on individual stocks, especially technology stocks. However, I want to point out a couple of things that I have been saying for quite some time that came up in Cisco's second-quarter results announced this evening.

  1. Margin compression will start affecting corporate earnings.
  2. Cutbacks at state and local governments will have a bigger impact than most think.

Cisco managed to tie those two themes together. CEO John Chambers blamed the public sector for a miss on profits and competition for a miss on margins. Please consider Cisco spooks Street again with weak outlook, margins
Network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc's CEO John Chambers spooked investors for the third time in as many quarters, warning of dwindling public spending and weaker margins from tough competition.

Chambers upset investors last August with a warning of "unusual uncertainty," and followed up last quarter with a weaker-than-expected outlook that he blamed on weak orders from debt-burdened government agencies.

He offered no relief this quarter.

"Unfortunately, we believe that our concerns in the public sector will continue to be challenging in the developed world for the next several quarters," he said, adding that Cisco's government accounts in the United States, Europe and Japan had all been hit in the fiscal second quarter.

"The challenges at state, local, and eventually federal level in our opinion will worsen over the next several quarters," he said of the U.S. market.

Cisco's second-quarter gross margin fell to 62.4 percent from 64.3 percent in the previous quarter, raising analysts' concerns that growing competition may be forcing the company to cut prices to protect market share.

The company forecast margins to be around 62 to 63 percent for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends in July.

Cisco also let down investors with a third-quarter outlook of earnings excluding items of 35 cents to 38 cents per share, below Wall Street expectations for 40 cents. And it said sales growth for the full year would likely be at the mid- to low-end of a previous 9 to 12 percent outlook.

Analysts said the outlook and low margins, a signal it may be cutting prices in response to tough pressure from competitors like Hewlett-Packard Co, overshadowed stronger-than-expected results for the second quarter.

"I think that's a way to cover up that they are facing competition in their more mature business lines and that they are most likely going to use price as a weapon to hold market share, and this is going to pressure earnings and margins," said Channing Smith, managing director and co-manager of Capital Advisors.

Cisco and HP used to be resale partners, but turned rivals after Cisco in 2009 unveiled plans to enter HP's territory of data center servers. HP in turn challenged Cisco by buying network equipment maker 3Com for around $3 billion.

Both sides have lately been raising the stakes with discounts, zero-interest leasing and pay-later schemes.

"We believe long-term investors should ride out the storm. If your time-frame is longer than the next six months, we believe Cisco's growth opportunities rival that of Apple and Google," said Smith.
Growth at What Price?

Channing Smith's idea that Cisco's growth rivals Apple or Google seems rather preposterous. Regardless, the important question is "How much you want to pay for the growth at Apple or Google, vs. Cisco?"

I suppose one can make a case many ways on that, but it is important to phrase the issue properly.

John Chambers 2010 Stock Sales

Inquiring minds just may be interested in Cisco Insider Sales. Here are the transactions for John Chambers alone.

  • Sep 16, 2010 285,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.
  • Aug 18, 2010 243,178 Automatic Sale at $22.50 per share - $5,471,505
  • May 18, 2010 22,273 Automatic Sale at $25 per share $556,825
  • May 17, 2010 1,000,000 Option Exercise at $16.01 per share.
  • May 17, 2010 1,250,000 Automatic Sale at $24.61 per share - $30,762,500
  • Mar 05, 2010 1,800,000 Option Exercise at $16.01 - $20.53 per share.
  • Mar 05, 2010 1,800,000 Automatic Sale at $25 per share - $45,000,000
  • Feb 08, 2010 2,000,000 Option Exercise at $18.57 per share.
  • Feb 08, 2010 2,000,000 Automatic Sale at $23.73 per share - $52,206,000

Lather, Rinse, Repeat



Cisco Monthly Chart



Chambers has not done a damn thing for shareholders for 10 years, cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars along the way. From the perspective of a shareholder of a publicly traded company, Chambers is not worth a damn cent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Ireland's Finance Minister Seeks "Substantial Discount" on Senior Bank Debt

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 01:07 PM PST

In a series of wishy-washy statements Ireland's Lenihan Wants Senior Bank Debt Discounts
Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the government is pressing for a "substantial discount" on 20 billion euros ($27.2 billion) of unsecured senior bank bonds, a push resisted by the European Central Bank.

"We put the 20 billion euros on the table in the EU-IMF negotiations, and the ECB ruled it out," Lenihan said in a debate on RTE television late last night. "But it's still there in debate, it's still there in discussions. We're pressing for substantial discounts and burden sharing."

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that Ireland needs to press ahead with its fiscal austerity measures and imposing "haircuts" on investors isn't part of the plan. Lenihan told reporters today he "couldn't see the European Central Bank contemplating" discounts on senior bondholders.

"But again in the context of the winding up of an institution or the gradual winding down of an institution these options can be put on the table," Lenihan said at a press conference in Dublin. "It is an issue and we have an ongoing dialogue with the bank and with the European authorities."

The government raised the issue of discounts on some senior debt with the European Union during negotiations for its 85 billion-euro rescue package in November only to be rebuffed by the ECB, according to Lenihan. Ireland has already injected about 46 billion euros into its banks.
Arrogance of Trichet

Note the arrogance of ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet - "Haircuts on investors isn't part of the plan."

The idea that bondholders should have no risk is preposterous. If investment had no risk it would be called "winning" not investing, and everyone would be plowing into Greek bonds right now at huge guaranteed rates.

Well I do not believe those guarantees, and more importantly, neither does the market. If the market thought there will not be haircuts, then there would be no difference in yields on Greek bonds vs. German bonds.

Going About This The Wrong Way

Lenihan is going about this the wrong way. Ireland should not be asking for "substantial discounts" or haircuts. Rather, Ireland should be telling the ECB and Jean-Claude Trichet that haircuts are coming. The correct starting point for negotiation is default, a 100% haircut.

Instead, Lenihan made wishy-washy statements, begging for a "substantial discount" while also stating "he couldn't see the European Central Bank contemplating discounts on senior bondholders."

What kind of nonsense is that?

Fortunately, Lenihan will be out on his ass after the next election. For the sake of the Irish citizens, let's hope the next prime minister and finance minister are more willing to tell the ECB just where to stuff it.

This is not about what the ECB wants, but rather how much Ireland is willing to make its citizens debt slaves to the senior bondholders, in other words, the UK, German, French, and US Banks.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Ron Paul slams Fed’s bond-buying program; Political Pressure on Fed Mounts

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 11:49 AM PST

MarketWatch reports Paul slams Fed's bond-buying program
Outspoken Federal Reserve critic Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, slammed the central bank's latest $600 billion bond-buying program on Wednesday, saying it and near-zero interest rates haven't led to job creation in the United States.

"Over $4 trillion in bailout facilities and outright debt monetization, combined with interest rates near zero for over two years, have not and will not contribute to increased employment," Paul said at a hearing of a House Financial Services subcommittee he heads.

"Debt monetization" is a reference by Paul and other Fed critics to the Fed's latest bond-buying program — a characterization rejected by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

In essence, Paul is charging that the central bank is enabling profligate spending by the government. The term "debt monetization" is a buzzword for how some poorer countries conducted policies in the post-World War II era.
Political Pressure on Fed Mounts

WSJ's Sudeep Reddy reports on concerns the Federal Reserve could be facing political pressure from Congress, as Rep. Ron Paul holds the first hearing of a new Fed oversight committee. Separately, Fed Chairman Bernanke updates Congress on the economy.



If the above YouTube does not play here is a link: Rep. Ron Paul Ignites Fed Worry

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Republicans Attack Dual Mandate; Bernanke Defends QE Yet Again, Says Unemployment will "Remain Elevated", Chastises Congress on Fiscal Policy

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:25 AM PST

Like a broken record, Bernanke keeps playing the same tune, this time to the House Budget Committee. Please consider Bernanke Says Unemployment to `Remain Elevated'
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the unemployment rate is likely to remain high "for some time" even after the biggest two-month drop in the jobless rate since 1958.

Bernanke told the House Budget Committee today that while the declines in the jobless rate in December and January "do provide some grounds for optimism," he cautioned that "with output growth likely to be moderate for a while and with employers reportedly still reluctant to add to their payrolls, it will be several years before the unemployment rate has returned to a more normal level."

Representative Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican who chairs the budget panel, reiterated his criticism of the Fed's Treasury purchases, saying they risk asset-price bubbles and faster inflation. The increase in long-term bond yields this week "certainly adds to these concerns and fuels some of this speculation," he said.

Ryan has said he supports legislation proposed by fellow Republicans, Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Indiana Representative Mike Pence, that would remove the Fed's employment mandate and have it focus solely on keeping prices stable.

Bernanke said "inflation is expected to persist below the levels that Fed policy makers have judged to be consistent" with their dual mandate from congress for stable prices and maximum employment.

The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index excluding food and energy, rose 0.7 percent in December from a year earlier, the lowest level in more than 50 years.

As in his appearance before the National Press Club, Bernanke said the low rate of core inflation provided a better guide to where overall inflation was headed. He noted that wages, which increased 1.7 percent on an average hourly basis last year, have acted as a constraint on inflation.
Full Text of Bernanke's Remarks

Fox News has the full text of Bernanke's Remarks to House Budget Committee for those who are interested. Here are a few snips.
The economic recovery that began in the middle of 2009 appears to have strengthened in the past few months, although the unemployment rate remains high. The initial phase of the recovery, which occurred in the second half of 2009 and in early 2010, was in large part attributable to the stabilization of the financial system, the effects of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and the strong boost to production from businesses rebuilding their depleted inventories.

More recently, however, we have seen increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer and business spending may be taking hold. Notably, real consumer spending rose at an annual rate of more than 4 percent in the fourth quarter. Although strong sales of motor vehicles accounted for a significant portion of this pickup, the recent gains in consumer spending appear reasonably broad based. Business investment in new equipment and software increased robustly throughout much of last year, as firms replaced aging equipment and as the demand for their products and services expanded. Construction remains weak, though, reflecting an overhang of vacant and foreclosed homes and continued poor fundamentals for most types of commercial real estate. Overall, improving household and business confidence, accommodative monetary policy, and more-supportive financial conditions, including an apparently increasing willingness of banks to lend, seem likely to result in a more rapid pace of economic recovery in 2011 than we saw last year.

While indicators of spending and production have been encouraging on balance, the job market has improved only slowly. Following the loss of about 8-3/4 million jobs from 2008 through 2009, private- sector employment expanded by a little more than 1 million in 2010. However, this gain was barely sufficient to accommodate the inflow of recent graduates and other new entrants to the labor force and, therefore, not enough to significantly erode the wide margin of slack that remains in our labor market. Notable declines in the unemployment rate in December and January, together with improvement in indicators of job openings and firms' hiring plans, do provide some grounds for optimism on the employment front. Even so, with output growth likely to be moderate for a while and with employers reportedly still reluctant to add to their payrolls, it will be several years before the unemployment rate has returned to a more normal level. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.

On the inflation front, we have recently seen increases in some highly visible prices, notably for gasoline. Indeed, prices of many industrial and agricultural commodities have risen lately, largely as a result of the very strong demand from fast-growing emerging market economies, coupled, in some cases, with constraints on supply. Nonetheless, overall inflation is still quite low and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

To assess underlying trends in inflation, economists also follow several alternative measures of inflation; one such measure is so-called core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components and therefore can be a better predictor of where overall inflation is headed. Core inflation was only 0.7 percent in 2010, compared with around 2-1/2 percent in 2007, the year before the recession began. Wage growth has slowed as well, with average hourly earnings increasing only 1.7 percent last year. These downward trends in wage and price inflation are not surprising, given the substantial slack in the economy.

The Federal Reserve's purchases of longer-term securities do not affect very short-term interest rates, which remain close to zero, but instead put downward pressure directly on longer-term interest rates. By easing conditions in credit and financial markets, these actions encourage spending by households and businesses through essentially the same channels as conventional monetary policy, thereby strengthening the economic recovery. Indeed, a wide range of market indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve's securities purchases have been effective at easing financial conditions, lending credence to the view that these actions are providing significant support to job creation and economic growth.

My colleagues and I have said that we will review the asset purchase program regularly in light of incoming information and will adjust it as needed to promote maximum employment and stable prices. In particular, we remain unwaveringly committed to price stability, and we are confident that we have the tools to be able to smoothly and effectively exit from the current highly accommodative policy stance at the appropriate time. Our ability to pay interest on reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve Banks will allow us to put upward pressure on short-term market interest rates and thus to tighten monetary policy when needed, even if bank reserves remain high. Moreover, we have developed additional tools that will allow us to drain or immobilize bank reserves as needed to facilitate the smooth withdrawal of policy accommodation when conditions warrant. If necessary, we could also tighten policy by redeeming or selling securities.

As I am appearing before the Budget Committee, it is worth emphasizing that the Fed's purchases of longer-term securities are not comparable to ordinary government spending. In executing these transactions, the Federal Reserve acquires financial assets, not goods and services; thus, these purchases do not add to the government's deficit or debt. Ultimately, at the appropriate time, the Federal Reserve will normalize its balance sheet by selling these assets back into the market or by allowing them to run off. In the interim, the interest that the Federal Reserve earns from its securities holdings adds to the Fed's remittances to the Treasury; in 2009 and 2010, those remittances totaled about $125 billion.
Bernanke on Fiscal Policy

The above snips addressed monetary policy. Bernanke also yapped about fiscal policy. Here is one small but noteworthy clip:

"The unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debt that the CBO outlines cannot actually happen, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a government with debt, relative to national income, that is rising without limit. One way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget must occur at some point."

Bernanke went on preaching to the House Budget Committee about various things including , debt-to-GDP ratios, but of course he does not want them to do anything now.

No one ever wants to do anything "now". Should by some miracle the recovery pick up steam they will not want to do anything "then" either, for fear of killing the recovery. Such is the nature of Keynesian and Monetarist clowns.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Money Heaven

Posted: 08 Feb 2011 11:58 PM PST

Via email, reader Denis wonders "Where did the Money go?"

Hello Mish

I read many times on your blog how bubbles created by the Fed led to the overpricing of assets such as real estate and stocks. Someone paid those overpriced valuations. So, where is the money? At some point will that money be used to mitigate the economic doom?

Denis


Illusion of Wealth

Let's take a look at a real estate example, then the stock market. Please consider home ownership rates.

In 2002 there were 71,278,000 owner occupied homes. In 2006 there were 75,380,000 owner occupied homes. The difference is 4,102,000 homes.

Thus, the overwhelming percent of the population did not buy a house in the biggest bubble years 2003-2006. Most had a house for many years and millions of others rented throughout.

Therefore it's safe to say that most homeowners rode home valuations up, then down, feeling rather wealthy in 2005-2006, and decidedly less wealthy now.

Anywhere, USA

Consider a typical subdivision of 200 houses, Anywhere USA where the homes are all relatively similar in size and value. Assume those homes were worth $250,000 in 2002 and $450,000 in 2006, with a few of sales at varying prices, but no sales since 2006.

Now let's assume one person has to sell now and all he can get is $220,000. Poof. Conceptually, the entire subdivision was just repriced on one sale.

Disregarding that sale, no money went anywhere (except of course via rising property taxes over the years to pay overly generous wages and pension benefits to police, fire department and other government workers).

On a percentage basis, few bought or sold during the years in question.

In general terms, the winners were those who sold at or near the top (and those benefiting from rising property taxes). The losers were those who bought near the top (along with taxpayers under the burden of rising property taxes).

Of course, many millions took out home equity lines and bought boats or made home improvements. However, those loans (except for loans in foreclosure or default) are still on the books of banks, most likely not marked-to-market.

Repricing Events

In the example above, 1 house out of 200 sold, yet that lone sale set the price for the entire neighborhood. Given that current buyers will not pay 2006 prices, repricing occurs whether any transactions take place or not.

Such repricing events happen all the time in the stock market as well.

For example, in premarket trading of as little as 100 shares, stocks can rise or fall 5% or more easily. Money does not go anywhere per se. Rather valuations change, just as happened in my housing example above.

To understand how valuations change over long periods of time, please consider Negative Annualized Stock Market Returns for the Next 10 Years or Longer? It's Far More Likely Than You Think
Cycles of PE Compression and Expansion



Over long periods of time PE ratios tend to compress and expand. Unless "it's different this time", history says that we are in a secular downtrend in PEs. From 1983 until 2000, investors had the tailwinds PE expansion at their back. Since 2000, PEs fluctuated but the stock market never returned to valuations that typically mark a bear market bottom.
Of course, there are hedge fund managers who made $5 billion or more in the crash, but that pales in comparison to the valuation of the stock market which changed by $trillions on the way up and the same amount on the way down.

On an ongoing basis, broker-dealers and CEOs take their cut (and huge bonuses as well). Here is a case-in-point: Anthony Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide Financial, single-handedly cashed out over $1 billion in shares and options (but that was over the course of a decade).

Will Mozilo use his $billion to help mitigate the economic doom?

How far would it go, even if he did? $1 billion is extremely tiny compared to the total stock market valuation and housing bubble bust.

So Where Did the Money Go?

Clearly, Wall Street took a tiny percentage (and continues to do so). Those CEOs and broker-dealers take their cut whether the market goes up or down. They don't care what happens to anyone in the process.

A few big hedge funds betting the stock market would drop made out very well. However, the stock market would have plunged whether anyone bet against it or not.

At the housing and stock market peaks, presumed wealth was nothing but an illusion caused by the Fed's serial bubble blowing policies. It would have been impossible for everyone to cash out then, or cash out now.

Thus, most of the money went to "money heaven" which is to say nowhere at all. It was not really "money" in the first place, but rather unrealistic valuations (and in regards to real estate, a mountain of debt that cannot be paid back).

Valuations went up, then down, repriced over time (with Wall Street siphoning off a bit in both directions). This helps explain why the rich get richer and the middle-class continually shrinks.

Millions of lives, late to each bubble-blowing party, take on too much debt and are destroyed in the process. Bernanke's policies ensure it's going to happen again.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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