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luni, 28 februarie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

Tips and Must-Haves for your eCommerce Platform

Posted: 27 Feb 2011 01:28 PM PST

Posted by MikeCP

Choosing an eCommerce platform can be a terribly frustrating experience because of the options and packages available, the misinformation, the pushy sales reps, the time and money investment, and so on. I want to talk about this decision because of this experience, but I don't plan on making any platform recommendations. No, no. That's really up to you and the resources available to you. But I'm happy to give you a rundown of the SEO elements you'll want to consider in your decision making process.

If you're not in the market for a new eCommerce platform, maybe some of these common platform missteps will convince you that it may be time to consider.

Proper Product Image Handling

Your product imagery can provide awesome conversion benefits and make a strong differentiator in your niche. Unfortunately, a lot of eCommerce platforms don't provide the necessary control and commit a lot of SEO missteps (like generating a new URL when the product images are cycled).

proper image handling
Images that create new URLs is a big no-no. Vat19.com's Giant Gummy bear page passes this test as the URL doesn't change when the delicious image is changed.

Page-Level Control of Head and Meta content

Sure, it makes sense for your title tag, H1, and image alt attribute to default to the product name, but if you don't have the option to create custom meta information you could be in for some frustration. One should be able to edit titles, H1s, image alt attributes, meta descriptions, etc. from every product page in the admin.

Additionally, it's important that the content in the HEAD section of each page is editable. If I want to drop a Google Website Optimizer script onto one product page, it shouldn't be impossible. The same goes for adding a rel=canonical, meta robots, or a page-specific JavaScript snippet.

Product Reviews

Product reviews are awesome for conversion, and it seems like many eCommerce platforms today offer some sort of built-in review system. Reviews can also have a positive impact on your product pages' rankings with the naturally keyword-rich UGC it generates. Unfortunately, tons of product reviews systems utilize JavaScript to call the reviews after the page loads, providing no SEO benefit.

Search engine readable product reviews
Fortunately for Amazon, this review is seen by the Googlebot because it's rendered in HTML

To make sure your product reviews are search engine readable, view source on a page with reviews and be sure the text appears in the code.

Robust Sitemap and Product Feed Control

Most modern eCommerce platforms submit Sitemaps to the search engines, but there's so much more that can be done. For instance, segmented Sitemaps is an awesome way to monitor indexation of different sections of your website. If your platform doesn't allow you to adjust your Sitemaps, you'd be missing out.

Additionally, product feeds allow you to submit your products to comparison shopping engines like Google Merchant Center, NexTag, Shopping.com, and many more. Google Merchant Center is the big one; an eComm platform that auto submits to GMC opens up more possibilities to appear for queries that trigger products in blended search, as well as product extensions for PPC advertisements.

blended search and ppc product extensions
You want this. Your eComm platform should allow it.

301 Redirects, True 404 pages, and Other Rewrite Control

Some of the hosted eComm platforms allow no control over 301 redirects and URL rewriting, and this is a big problem. Similarly, many platforms don't send a proper 404 status for a dead page, opting instead to 302 redirect to a (status 200) 404.html, or worse, the homepage. As products are removed from your catalog, you should be able to 301 redirect that old URL to a related product, or send a proper 404 status message. Anything else will cause confusion for the search engines AND users. Lastly, and most obviously, URLs should be rewritable to allow for keywords-richness.

improper 404
Contrary to the friendly message, everything is not ok. This "404" page is seen just like any other resolving URL by the search engines. Header checker courtesy of Andy Stratton's checkmyheaders.com.

Filtered Navigation that Doesn't Suck

An example of faceted navigation Faceted or filtered navigation is a contentious point amongst eCommerce platforms as very few platforms do it exactly the same.

First and foremost, a filtered navigation that relies on parameters and session IDs can be very difficult, if not impossible to build in an search engine friendly manner. In many cases, the Googlebot could waste a ton of your crawl bandwidth crawling in and out of navigational filters. Additionally, it can become a information architecture nightmare, with the Googlebot crawling deeper and further from the homepage to reach product pages.

A more modern approach to faceted navigation is through using AJAX to filter products. Just make sure that there's an HTML crawl path to your products, and you're not hiding any really good organic landing pages within your AJAX navigation.

There's a lot of ways to approach this issue, and its worthy of its own discussion. See Rand's Whiteboard Friday on the matter. The general rules for a search friendly faceted navigation:

Keep the crawlers from crawling endlessly through filters. Remember, rel=nofollow and canonical don't preserve crawl bandwidth.
Don't hide great organic landing pages from the crawlers by using AJAX. AJAX is ok, as long as there's an alternate path to pages you'd like to rank.
Robots.txt can be used as a solution but must be done carefully (for example, creating a rule to disallow access to URLs with 2 or more parameters/filters).

Site Speed

At this point I'm really more concerned with site speed from a conversion standpoint, rather than as a ranking factor, but there's reason to believe site speed will see increased importance in the algorithms' future. An advanced cacheing ability is a must for the modern eCommerce platform.

A few more SEO elements

Automatically generated but manually editable HTML sitemap.
Simple breadcrumbs. Preferably generated in a way that triggers Google's enhanced snippet:
Navigation that non-JavaScript users (and crawlers) can navigate. Image-based navigation should use alt attributes or css image replacement. See Amazon's approach with css, images, and JavaScript disabled visible on the right:
DNS control to allow CNAMEs, content delivery network integration, subdomain usage, etc.
Customizable (or no) file extensions in URLs. domain.com/product/ rather than domain.com/product.php.
Blog integration on a subfolder. If this isn't possible and your blog has to go on a subdomain (or worse, another domain entirely), that could be a sign of even more frustrating control issues.

Some Non-SEO elements

There's obviously TONS of non-SEO related features that should be included in a good eCommerce platform. Here are just a few.

Strength in Numbers and Extendability - At some point your eCommerce platform will frustrate you for one reason or another, and you'll feel a lot better if there's a vibrant community and developers building extensions behind it to help.
Data Portability - Can you export and import all of your data from the admin? If one of your manufacturers makes a change to all of their products that requires a small edit to all of their descriptions, can this be done simply? And what about a few years later when you're ready to move to a new platform?
Internal Site Search - Your platform should definitely have a strong internal site search functionality, or at least allow for full integration of a third party's search solution.
Updated, but Not Too Often! - When was the last time your platform updated? 3 years ago? Well, a lot has changed since then, I'm not sure I'd trust that. At the same time, updates every other week can be extremely frustrating.
Great Checkout Process - We'll leave what "great" actually means to the conversion rate experts. Needless to say, this is a HUGE differentiator for eComm platforms. I'll also lump advanced control of shipping rules, gift cards, and coupon codes in here as well.

That's Everything! </sarcasm>

I don't envy the engineers behind today's eCommerce platforms. They're tasked with building a system that's both simple yet robust, 'just gets out of the way' yet 'all-in-one', user friendly yet secure, and so on. No fun. I don't expect that I've covered every bit of must-have functionality either, but I hope I've got most of it. If you've got any particularly frustrating stories from dealing with your eCommerce platform, follow me on Twitter and let me know, or sound off in the comments.

Obligatory "You Forgot Feature X" Updates:

From @yoast: support for rich snippets. Google recently added eCommerce sites to the list of sites that can utilize rich snippets. Fortunately, if your GMC feed is properly set up, you may not have to do anything to take advantage.
From @dergal: Analytics. I left built-in web analytics out originally because I'm a die-hard Google Analytics junkie, but if done well it can be a nice feature to have.

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Behind-the-Scenes Video: "Thurgood" Screening at the White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, Feb. 28, 2011

Behind-the-Scenes Video: "Thurgood" Screening at the White House

In honor of African-American history month, the White House hosts a screening of the new film "Thurgood" - a one-act play starring Laurence Fishburne and written by George Stevens, JR. Go inside the screening to watch interviews and learn more about the impact of Justice Marshall's work towards equal rights in America.

Watch the video.

Seth's Blog : The simple two-step process

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The simple two-step process

Step one: Open all doors. Learn a little about a lot. Consider as many options as possible, then add more.

Step two: Relentlessly dismiss, prune and eliminate. Choose. Ship.

The problem most people run into is that they mix the steps and confuse them. During step one, they aren't open enough, aren't willing enough to consider the impossible. And then, in step two, fear of shipping kicks in and they stay open too long, hold on to too many options and hesitate.

Simple doesn't always mean easy.

• Email to a friend •

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duminică, 27 februarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Arab World Embraces Israeli’s YouTube "Zenga Zenga" Spoof of Qaddafi Rant; Two Versions, With and Without Dancers
China Cracks Down on Mid-East Style Protests With Water Canons; Police Blanket Shanghai, Beijing; Internet Search for "Egypt" and "Tunisia" Blocked
Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring Around Tripoli; Oman Sultan Reshuffles Cabinet After Protests
Massive Rout in Irish Elections; Collision Course with the EU; Default the Best Option for Ireland

Arab World Embraces Israeli’s YouTube "Zenga Zenga" Spoof of Qaddafi Rant; Two Versions, With and Without Dancers

Posted: 27 Feb 2011 04:27 PM PST

The New York Times reports Arab World Embraces Israeli's YouTube Spoof of Qaddafi Rant.

A satirical YouTube clip mocking Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi's megalomania is fast becoming a popular token of the Libya uprising across Middle East. And in an added affront to Colonel Qaddafi, it was created by an Israeli living in Tel Aviv.

Noy Alooshe, 31, an Israeli journalist, musician and Internet buff, said he saw Colonel Qaddafi's televised speech last Tuesday in which the Libyan leader vowed to hunt down protesters "inch by inch, house by house, home by home, alleyway by alleyway," and immediately identified it as a "classic hit."

"He was dressed strangely, and he raised his arms" like at a trance party, Mr. Alooshe said in a telephone interview on Sunday. Then there were Colonel Qaddafi's words with their natural beat.

Mr. Alooshe spent a few hours at the computer, using Auto-Tune pitch corrector technology to set the speech to the music of "Hey Baby," a 2010 electro hip-hop song by American rapper Pitbull, featuring another artist, T-Pain. He titled it "Zenga-Zenga," echoing Col. Qaddafi's repetition of the word zanqa, Arabic for alleyway.

Mr. Alooshe said he was a little worried that if the Libyan leader survived, he could send one of his sons after him. But he said it was "also very exciting to be making waves in the Arab world as an Israeli."

As one surfer wrote in an Arabic talkback early Sunday, "What's the problem if he's an Israeli? The video is still funny." He signed off with the international cyber-laugh, "Hahaha."

Two Versions, With and Without Dancers

original smash hit with dancers

Zenga Zenga Original Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBY-0n4esNY

revised version without dancers

Zenga Zenga Revised Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GcUutnU2gk

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

China Cracks Down on Mid-East Style Protests With Water Canons; Police Blanket Shanghai, Beijing; Internet Search for "Egypt" and "Tunisia" Blocked

Posted: 27 Feb 2011 12:47 PM PST

In Shanghai and Beijing, signs of political unrest are starting to brew. In response, China has clamped down on internet access, banning search words, even names of countries associated with unrest.

For now, police have things under control with a huge display of force relative to the size of the protests. The key words are likely "for now".

The Washington Post reports Chinese police face down Middle East-style protests

Police and security officials displayed a massive show of force here and in other Chinese cities Sunday, trying to snuff out any hint of protests modeled on the uprisings in the Middle East. In Shanghai, several hundred people trying to gather were dispersed with a water truck.

Officials have used state-run media outlets to dismiss any comparisons with China while at the same time stepping up public comments on the need to address "social conflict" and to tackle problems such as the growing income disparity between the rich and poor. They have also detained a number of activists and human rights lawyers, blocked Internet search terms considered sensitive, such as "Egypt," "Tunisia" and even U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr.'s Chinese name. And they have issued warnings to foreign journalists to be mindful of reporting restrictions.

A previously unknown group has used an overseas-based Chinese language Web site to call for a series of peaceful, silent protests, named "jasmine rallies" after the Tunisian uprising, on consecutive Sunday afternoons in cities across China. The rallies were called for heavily trafficked commercial areas, public squares and parks, ostensibly so silent protesters could blend in with ordinary passersby to avoid arrest.

However, police on Sunday were out in huge numbers in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities at the sites where the rallies were supposed to take place.

At the Wangfujing protest site in Beijing, a foreign journalist shooting video for a news agency was reportedly punched and kicked in the face by plainclothes Chinese security officers who confiscated his camera. The Foreign Correspondents Club of China reported that more than a dozen other journalists were roughed up at the site.

"I came here today to see how people protest against the government, which is corrupt and rules in an authoritarian way," said a 71-year-old man, who asked that only his family name, Cao, be used. "Democracy is the trend in the world. No country in the world can be an exception to the process."

Another man, named Xia, 64, said there were about 400 to 500 people gathering at People's Square when he arrived around 1 p.m., but they were dispersed by the spray from the water truck. He said he would keep returning to try to protest because he was already in his 60s and not afraid.

On Sunday, Premier Wen sat for two hours for an Internet chat, with the Xinhua news agency and the central government's Web site, www.gov.cn, addressing common complaints and answering questions submitted online. It was Wen's third such Internet chat session, coming just before the March opening of the National People's Congress, China's nominal legislature.

In the session, Wen discussed the problem of corruption, following the recent firing for "discipline violations" of Liu Zhijun, the minister of railways and the top official in charge of China's rapidly expanding high-speed rail development.

Wen also said the government was adjusting its rapid growth targets to an average of 7 percent for the next five years -- and to make sure the growth was balanced and wealth more evenly distributed.

Police Head Off Protests, Premier Vows to Tackle Corruption, Inflation

Bloomberg reports Wen Pledges to Curb Graft, Income Inequality as Police Head Off Protests

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to punish abuse of power by officials and narrow the growing wealth gap as police blanketed Beijing and Shanghai to head off planned protests inspired by revolts in the Middle East.

The root of corruption lies in a government that has too much unrestrained power, Wen said in a two-hour online interview with citizens today. He promised to curtail food costs and tackle surging property prices. Wen also cut economic growth targets and said the government would focus on ensuring the benefits of expansion were more evenly distributed.

Wen's comments came as hundreds of police deployed in Beijing and Shanghai at the site of demonstrations called to protest corruption and misrule. At least seven people were bundled into police vans near Shanghai's People's Square, while in Beijing several foreign journalists were forcibly removed from the Wangfujing shopping district.

"The new five-year plan will be more about quality of growth," said Kevin Lai, a Hong Kong-based economist at Daiwa Capital Markets. "The government is going to pay more attention to sustainable growth, environment, better distribution of income, rather than pure GDP pursuit."

An August report by Zurich-based Credit Suisse AG put income inequality levels in China at levels not seen outside of sub-Saharan Africa. High food prices, unemployment and anger over corruption helped spark the protests that toppled Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and fueled rebellion against Libya's Muammar Qaddafi.

An open letter on the U.S.-based website Boxun.com [Mish Note: Website is in Chinese] called for people to gather in at least 27 sites around the country from Tibet to Manchuria for "jasmine" rallies, named after the uprising last month in Tunisia. "Come out and take a stroll at two o'clock on Sundays to look around," the letter said.

In Shanghai, at least 23 police vehicles were stationed around Shanghai's Peace Cinema in the shopping area of People's Square. Police in Beijing, which included paramilitary units and patrols with Rottweiler and German Shepherd dogs, forcibly removed several foreign journalists from Wangfujing Street at about 2:45 p.m. Police were stationed at every entrance to Wangfujing today.

"You see how the police try to control the crowd? They spend so many resources on this, yet why does the government do so little to improve people's livelihoods?" said a 72-year-old retired car mechanic in Shanghai, who didn't want to be named because he feared being detained.

Did you note the irony in Premier Wen Jiabao's statements? "The root of corruption lies in a government that has too much unrestrained power", yet the government busts the heads of journalists, blocks internet access, and refuses to let people gather. Finally, the Chinese government bureaucrats plan damn near everything, and the economy is clearly overheating.

If that is not the epitome of "too much unrestrained power", what is?

In case you missed the fraud and corruption involving China's rapidly expanding high-speed rail development, please consider Speculation, Investment Scandals, Fraud, and China's Hard Landing; Miracle of Chinese High-Speed Rail will be Reduced to Dust; Peak Oil Doomsday Clock

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring Around Tripoli; Oman Sultan Reshuffles Cabinet After Protests

Posted: 27 Feb 2011 11:31 AM PST

Muammar el-Qaddafi still has control of Tripoli but hardly anything else. The United Nations Security council has imposed sanctions and is investigating war crimes. However, the security council did not impose a no-fly zone that some wanted.

In Oman, police fired teargas at protesters and two were shot dead when demonstrators tried to storm a police station. In response, the sultan changed six ministers in "the public's interest".

Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring Around Tripoli

The New York Times reports Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring of Armed Control Near Tripoli

ZAWIYA, Libya — In this city 30 miles west of Tripoli, hundreds of people rejoiced in a central square on Sunday, waving the red, black and green flag that has come to signify a free Libya and shouting the chants that foretold the downfall of governments in Tunisia and Egypt: "The people want to bring down the regime."

Rebels, in control of the city, had reinforced its boundaries with informal barricades, and military units that had defected stood guard with rifles, six tanks and anti-aircraft guns mounted on the backs of trucks. In the central square here, a mosque was riddled with enormous holes, evidence of the government's failed attempt to take back this city on Thursday. Nearby lay seven freshly dug graves belonging to protesters who had fallen in that siege, witnesses said.

Proving how close opposition control has come to the capital, where Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi maintains tight control, the confidence of the demonstrators in Zawiya was remarkable, all the more so because it was witnessed as part of the official tour for international journalists that Colonel Qaddafi's government organized. The public relations effort, apparently intended to show a stable Libya to the outside world, appeared to backfire, as a tour of Tripoli had on Saturday.

Instead, the tour, whose minders were forced to wait at the city's outskirts, showed a nation where the uprising had reached the capital's doorstep, underscoring a growing impression that the ring of rebel control around Tripoli was tightening. But in a sign that the fight was far from over, armed government forces were seen massing around the city.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, the secretary of state, said Sunday before departing for Geneva that the United States was "reaching out to many different Libyans who are organizing in the east" but said it was too soon to recognize a provisional government.

Security Council Calls for War Crimes Inquiry

Qaddafi's options are rather limited at this point. He can stay and fight to the last drop of his blood, he can flee to Venezuela, one of the few countries that would take him, or if he gives up, he likely faces a war crimes tribunal, assuming his own military does not take him out.

Please consider Security Council Calls for War Crimes Inquiry in Libya

The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday night to impose sanctions on Libya's leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, and his inner circle of advisers, and called for an international war crimes investigation into "widespread and systemic attacks" against Libyan citizens who have protested against the government over the last two weeks.

The vote, only the second time the Security Council has referred a member state to the International Criminal Court, comes after a week of bloody crackdowns in Libya in which Colonel Qaddafi's security forces have fired on protesters, killing hundreds.

Also on Saturday, President Obama said that Colonel Qaddafi had lost the legitimacy to rule and should step down.

The Security Council resolution also imposes an arms embargo against Libya and an international travel ban on 16 Libyan leaders, and freezes the assets of Colonel Qaddafi and members of his family, including four sons and a daughter. Also included in the sanctions were measures against defense and intelligence officials who are believed to have played a role in the violence against civilians in Libya.

The sanctions did not include imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, a possibility that had been discussed by officials from the United States and its allies in recent days.

The resolution also prohibited all United Nations member nations from providing any kind of arms to Libya or allowing the transportation of mercenaries, who are believed to have played a part in the recent violence. Suspected shipments of arms should be halted and inspected, the resolution said.

Two Oman Protesters Shot Dead

Protests and violence are unusual in Oman, a country where political parties are outlawed. Nonetheless, Yahoo! News reports Two protesters shot dead in Oman

Omani police shot dead two demonstrators with rubber bullets on Sunday, a security official said, as the deadly wave of protest rocking the Arab world spread to the normally placid pro-Western sultanate.

Five people were also wounded when security forces opened fire on the demonstrators who tried to storm a police station, the official said.

"Two were killed after being shot with rubber bullets as protesters attempted to storm a police station" in Sohar, some 200 kilometres (125 miles) northwest of Muscat, the official said, requesting anonymity.

In an apparent move to appease demonstrators, Qaboos on Saturday announced an increase in the monthly allowance for students at universities and vocational schools.

ONA said he ordered a raise in the allowance of between 25 and 90 Omani rials ($65 to $234) to "achieve further development and... provide a decent living for his people."

He also ordered the creation of a consumer protection bureau, and was looking into opening cooperatives, it said.

Earlier this month, Oman raised the minimum wage for an estimated 150,000 private sector employees from $364 to $520 a month.

Six Oman Cabinet Ministers Changed in Public Interest

In response to the protests, Oman's Sultan Reshuffles Cabinet Ministers.

Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said reshuffled his cabinet on Saturday, changing six ministers in "the public's interest," one week after a rare protest calling for political reform.

The cabinet changes came as 500 protesters demanding democracy and jobs blocked traffic and broke street lights in the largest industrial city Sohar. Protests are rare in Oman, a small Gulf country where political parties are banned.

In Sohar, protesters blocked cars and shoppers at a mall in the city to demand that the Gulf Arab state's elected advisory body be given legislative powers, witnesses said.

Protesters chanted: "We want long-term corrupt ministers to go!" "We want the Shura Council to have legislative powers!" "We want jobs!" and "We want democracy!"

"It has been going on for hours now. They are now at the Globe Roundabout blocking traffic," said Mohammed Sumri, a resident. The police did not intervene, residents said.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Massive Rout in Irish Elections; Collision Course with the EU; Default the Best Option for Ireland

Posted: 27 Feb 2011 02:09 AM PST

The voting is over in Ireland and in this writer's eyes, quite anticlimactic. Fianna Fail, the party that agreed to enormously unpopular austerity measures to bail out UK, German, French and US banks, was blasted to smithereens. The vote was both expected and well deserved.

The real fun begins now, and it is not at all certain what that outcome is. My choice is for default, but I do not get to vote. However, if common sense prevails, the EU and ECB is in for a rude shock.

Ireland's new government on a collision course with EU

The Telegraph reports Ireland's new government on a collision course with EU

Exit polls and early tallies from Ireland's general election heralded political annihilation for Fianna Fail (FF), the party which has ruled Ireland for more than 60 years of the Irish Republic's eight decades of independence.

The unprecedented and historic defeat, Fianna Fail's worst result in 85 years, makes the Irish government the first eurozone administration to be punished by voters in the aftermath of the EU's debt crisis. Voter turn-out was exceptionally high at more than 70 per cent, indicating public anger at the government and the EU.

Late last year, Ireland was forced to accept a £72 billion EU-IMF bailout to cover huge public debts that were ran up to save failed Irish banks.

The bail-out was designed to prevent financial contagion that threatened the existence of the euro, but according to economic forecasts, the cost of servicing Irish bank debt and the EU-IMF bank loans will consume 85 per cent of Ireland's income tax revenue by 2012, a burden that a majority of voters find intolerable.

Brian Cowen, the Irish Prime Minister and Fianna Fail leader, who stood down last month rather than face furious voters, was also pressured into implementing a savage £13billion austerity programme of tax rises and spending cuts drawn up by the EU.

The cost of the EU-IMF bailout in extra taxes for an average Irish family has been estimated at over £3,900 a year. Other deeply unpopular measures include controversial reductions to the minimum wage, unprecedented cuts to public services and 90,000 jobs losses in a country where unemployment is already running at almost 14 per cent.

In Dublin, Fianna Fail won just eight per cent of the vote in an electoral decimation that called into question the future of previously unassailable politicians such Brian Lenihan, the Irish finance minister.

"However bad people thought it would get for Fianna Fail, nobody thought it would get this bad," said Michael Marsh, professor of political politics at Trinity College Dublin. "That is highly significant."

Based on anger and some preliminary polls, I thought FF would get about 10-12% of the vote. By that measure Fianna Fail did as well as could have been expected except in Dublin.

Unfortunately, Brian Lenihan, one of the complete fools behind the Irish sellout to the EU, appears likely to retain his seat. However, he is burnt toast as Finance Minister. Please see Lenihan battles the tears as he claims fourth seat for details.

Returning to The Telegraph ...

Enda Kenny, Fine Gael's leader, will later on Sunday, start to form a new government, almost certainly with Labour, after full election results under Ireland's complicated PR system come through.

Both Mr Kenny and Eamonn Gilmore, Labour's leader, have promised Irish voters that they will renegotiate the EU-IMF austerity programme to reduce the burden for taxpayers and to force financial investors to shoulder some of the bank debts currently paid out of the public purse.

At a summit of centre-right EU leaders in Helsinki next Friday, Mr Kenny will use his position as Ireland's new Prime Minister to beg the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, for concessions ahead of an emergency March 11 Brussels summit to restructure the euro zone.

But neither the two European leaders nor the European Central Bank or EU will permit any substantial changes, despite the huge popular Irish revolt against the bailout.

Chancellor Merkel will tell Mr Kenny that if he wants to reduce the high, punitive 5.8 per cent interest rate charged on EU loans then Ireland will have to give up its low corporate tax rates - a measure regarded as vital to Ireland's recovery and one of the few economic policies it has not yet handed over to Brussels or Frankfurt.

The new Irish premier will also be warned that there is no question of forcing privately-owned financial institutions to assume Ireland's £85 billion bank debts because the resulting market panic would spread to Germany and France, tearing the euro single currency apart.

As Irish voters headed for the polling booths on Friday, the European Commission bluntly declared that the terms of the EU-IMF bailout "must be applied" whatever the will of Ireland's people or regardless of any change of government.

"It's an agreement between the EU and the Republic of Ireland, it's not an agreement between an institution and a particular government," said a Brussels spokesman.

A European diplomat, from a large eurozone country, told The Sunday Telegraph that "the more the Irish make a big deal about renegotiation in public, the more attitudes will harden".

"It is not even take it or leave it. It's done. Ireland's only role in this now is to implement the programme agreed with the EU, IMF and European Central Bank. Irish voters are not a party in this process, whatever they have been told," said the diplomat.

Arrogance and Gall of the EU

Ireland, not the EU is in charge here. The opening salute from Kenny should not be to ask for EU concessions but to simply say "Go to Hell" or more politely to offer 1 cent on the dollar for debt.

That will set the proper tone for serious negotiation, and it is something I have been saying for many months.

Calls for a Vote

Dessie Shiels, an independent candidate in Donegal, said: "People have not been given the basic right of deciding whether or not they should have their taxes increased in order to repay bondholders who have lent to the banks."

David McWilliams, an economist and former official at the Ireland's Central Bank, has led calls for a popular vote under Article 27 of the Irish constitution, which requires on a matter of "such national importance that the will of the people ought to be ascertained".

"We have to re-negotiate everything," he said. "Obviously, the first way to do this is to make them aware that if they force us to pay everything, we will default and they will get nothing. So they had better get a little bit of something, than all of nothing. To make this financial pill easier to swallow, we must take the initiative politically. We can do this via a referendum.

"If the Irish people hold a referendum on the bank debts now, we can go to the EU with a mandate from the people which says No. This will allow our politicians to play hard-ball, because to do otherwise would be an anti-democratic endgame."

Declan Ganley, the Irish businessman who led the 2008 No vote to the Lisbon Treaty, said Ireland must "have the balls" to threaten debt default and withdrawal from the single currency.

"We have a hostage, it is called the euro," he said. "The euro is insolvent. The only question is whether Ireland should be sacrificed to keep the Ponzi scheme going. We have to have a Plan B to the misnamed bailout, which is to go back to the Irish Punt."

Calling for a vote is actually a very good idea. It would remove the stigma of Kenny saying "Go to Hell". Instead the people of Ireland can vote to tell the EU to "Go to Hell".

Other than outright default, putting the decision to a vote is the only thing that makes any sense given the stubborn arrogance of the EU.

Onerous Terms Cannot and Will Not be Honored

It is beyond stupid to demand terms so onerous they cannot possibly be paid back. Martin Wolf, writing for the Financial Times feels the same way.

Please consider Ireland needs help with its debt

This is not one, but three, crises: an economic collapse; a financial implosion; and a fiscal disaster. On the first, given the fall in demand and the need for fiscal contraction, prospects for recovery depend heavily on exports. On the second, the direct costs of recapitalising the system are set to be around 36 per cent of GDP, according to Goodbody stockbrokers. On the last, according to the IMF, general government debt could be 123 per cent of GDP by 2014. A little over a third of this increase in the public debt ratio would then be a direct result of recapitalising the banks.

Such a crisis is beyond the ability of Ireland to manage without financial collapse and sovereign default.

Apart from the Armageddon of a sovereign default, two partial escapes exist. The more trivial would be a reduction in the rate of interest on Ireland's borrowing: a 1 per cent reduction in the rate of interest would save the state 0.4 per cent of GDP a year. That would be a small help, at least. A more valuable possibility would be a writedown of existing subordinated and senior bank debt, which currently amounts to €21.4bn (14 per cent of GDP).

The ECB and the other members of the European Union have vetoed this idea, fearful of contagion. Indeed, the assistance package was partly to prevent just such an outcome. Yet the idea that taxpayers should bail out senior creditors of massively insolvent banks at such risk to the solvency of their state is both unfair and unreasonable. If the rest of the EU is determined to protect senior creditors, it should surely share in the cost of doing so. Why should the taxpayers of the borrowing country pay all? The new Irish government should make this point firmly.

Key Question

Changes in interest rates are meaningless, so would trivial, symbolic writedowns.

Wolf asked the key question I have been asking for months: Why should the taxpayers of the borrowing country pay all?

The answer is they shouldn't. Moreover I doubt they can. It would wreck the Irish economy to do so. If the EU breaks up over this, well that is the EU's problem more than it is Ireland's.

It is high time banks, not taxpayers bear the brunt of stupid lending decisions. There is no better time than the present to send that message, and the best way to do that is have the voters of Ireland decide.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Wonder and anger

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Wonder and anger

It's hard to imagine two emotions more different from one another.

And yet one can easily replace the other. A sense of wonder and grinding anger can't co-exist.

Great innovations, powerful interactions and real art are often produced by someone in a state of wonder. Looking around with stars in your eyes and amazement at the tools that are available to you can inspire generosity and creativity and connection.

Anger, on the other hand, merely makes us smaller.

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sâmbătă, 26 februarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Real Estate Emails from Arizona and Florida: Should I Buy? Is this a Scam?

Posted: 26 Feb 2011 05:12 PM PST

In response to Interactive Map of Case Shiller Home Price Drop from Peak; Reflections on Flying Monkeys I received questions from readers regarding real estate in Arizona and Florida.

Phoenix Email

Reader Ron is from the Midwest and asks about Phoenix...

"I am very interested in the Phoenix housing data, however given the commentary below I cannot tell either context or time frame. Is Phoenix improving or declining? I cannot tell from your article. Can you elaborate in terms and time frame that would explain?"

Hello Ron

Phoenix may easily be close to the bottom given that massive drop.

However, I would not expect significant appreciation for years even IF Phoenix is at the bottom. That holds true for any bottoming area. I think parts of Florida have probably bottomed as well, but prices could easily stagnate for a decade.

In general, the last bubble is not reblown for decades. Look at the Nasdaq or better yet, the Nikkei.

If you are thinking of moving to and living in Phoenix, I believe the worst of the decline is over. However, if you are thinking about the rental market, you need to be very careful if you do not know what you are doing.

Please see Phoenix Property Scam Targets Australian and New Zealand Buyers for details. I strongly suggest not attempting to manage property from a distance.

Florida Email

Stuck-In-Florida writes ....

I own three residential home properties in Orlando that I bought in 2006, and obviously over held them and they are now all worth half the price. I have had many problems with leasing them out due to many people moving in making the place a mess and leaving due to personal financial problems!

I cannot figure out what to do with the homes now because the options are to lose half my investment or ruin my credit. I do not like either option.

Recently I have been contacted by a gentleman that lives in the area and he found 3 year lease to own (option to buy) tenants for two of my homes, I read over the contract and they are very attractive, 3 years contracted tenant, and an option price at the end of three years at the price of the peak in 2007 or double the price of the home now.

Is this a scam for me as the owner or is this a scam for the tenant, or both ways? Let me know if you know anything about this?

Stuck-in-Florida

Hello Stuck...

I cannot answer your question directly but I may be able to help.

For starters, I am suspicious of "offers to help". Moreover, I do not know Florida law or any specific Florida pitfalls, nor can I (or would I even if I could, attempt to sort out a legal contract for anyone).

Secondly please note what I said to the potential Phoenix buyer above. Even IF this is the bottom, do not expect rapid appreciation, perhaps any appreciation. In real (inflation adjusted returns), I expect real estate to be a poor investment for as long as a decade.

Do you really want to be a landlord?

Even if you do, my advice is simple and easy to understand: Before you sign anything or do anything please consult with an attorney for your state.

You may wish to consider walking away, or you may want to go ahead if an attorney reviews what you have in mind. Again, I am very suspicious of "offers to help". Perhaps that offer is not a scam, perhaps it is.

I do not have legal contacts for many states. In fact, I happen to have a contact for precisely one state. That state just happens to be Florida.

Please read Before Walking Away Consult An Attorney for information about walking away and the name of a Florida attorney specializing in real estate problems.

Tell him Mish sent you. I get nothing out of this. I am just trying to help. Good luck to you.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

189 German Academics Support EU Sovereign Default Plan

Posted: 26 Feb 2011 10:37 AM PST

Unlike the Keynesian and Monetarist academic clowns that rule US academia German academics push for EU sovereign default plan

Almost 200 German economics professors have signed a declaration rejecting current proposals to resolve the eurozone debt crisis, instead calling for a way for distressed countries to declare bankruptcy.

More than 200 professors were invited to sign the document, and 189 did so, including prominent figures such as Manfred Neumann of the University of Bonn and Justus Haucap of the University of Duesseldorf, both in western Germany.

Instead of the collective support mechanism set up last year that could be made permanent in a modified form from 2013, the economists argued it would be better to let countries restructure their debts.

"Restructuring allows the countries concerned to reduce their debt and start over," said the economists.

The solution being mulled at present and likely to be approved by European leaders next month would amount to "a permanent guarantee" of some countries' debt, with "very serious consequences," they added.

The signatories also doubted the effectiveness of measures to reinforce the competitiveness of weaker eurozone countries and control members' public finances owing to the European Union's "limited firepower."

The document was published as lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition sent her a clear message ahead of negotiations on a permanent EU rescue plan to take place in Brussels.

The German deputies said the future European Stability Mechanism should not be allowed to buy eurozone government debt, as the European Commission and European Central Bank would like.

Those 189 academics simply want the ECB to admit that the debt owed by Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, cannot possibly be paid back. What cannot be paid back, won't, and pretending that it will just makes problems worse. It is refreshing to see a large group of academics on the right side of an economic issue.

Axel Weber, once heir apparent to ECB presidency to replace Jean-Claude Trichet, resigned as president of the German central bank over the issue of the ECB buying sovereign debt. He did not want the ECB to buy debt, most of the rest of the ECB did.

Academics in Germany are disregarded even though they make economic sense. Keynesian and Monetarist academics in the US make no sense but are revered.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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