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miercuri, 20 aprilie 2011

Today: President Obama’s Facebook Town Hall

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Today: President Obama’s Facebook Town Hall

Today, at 4:45 p.m. EDT (1:45 p.m. PDT), President Obama is holding a “Shared Responsibility and Shared Prosperity” Facebook town hall event and you are invited! You can watch the event live and submit your questions on the White House Facebook page:

http://facebook.com/WhiteHouse

After the event, be sure to stay tuned for our Women and Technology panel with White House Senior Advisor Valerie Jarrett and the Startup America panel with Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Austan Goolsbee. Learn more about these events and find out how you can get involved.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama is introduced during a town hall meeting at Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale, Va., where he spoke about his vision for reducing the debt and bringing down the deficit, April 19, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Seth's Blog : Do the Work is out today

Do the Work is out today

Steve Pressfield's new book is available today.

It's a prequel, sequel and manifesto-companion to one of the best books I have ever read, The War of Art. This new one is the one you can hand out to your co-workers and your students and even your boss. I'm thrilled that Steve entrusted this book to my new venture, the Domino Project.

Of course, subscribers to the Domino blog already knew about the new book and got it for free in digital form. In fact, it's already a bestseller. Not too late to join in...

No matter how you get it, I hope you'll read it, absorb it and share it.

For thoughts about the book and exclusive interviews, check out these blog posts: Communicatrix, Pam Slim, Chris Guillebeau, Adam Baker, Danielle Laporte, David Garland, Barry Moltz and Mario Schulzke.

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SEOptimise

Google Test: Multiple Meta Descriptions Work as Expected, Social Search Does Not

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 08:37 AM PDT

A few weeks ago Shark SEO posted an intriguing experiment about multiple meta descriptions. To be more exact, he experimented with adding more than one meta description into a single meta description tag.

One or more actual meta descriptions would exceed the meta description display character limit of approx. 165 characters. Why would you want to do it? Well, usually search users are seeking more than one aspect of your site or service. Thus it would be an advantage to serve all of them the perfect meta description.

Expanding on this concept, I wanted to test whether you can add more than one or multiple meta description tags.

I wondered whether Google would accept more than one meta description tag. Also, I wanted to find out which one it would take – the first one?

In the test performed by Shark SEO, both descriptions contained in one tag could be triggered to appear in the search snippet depending on the keyphrase used in the search query. Would it be the case here as well?

To test, I used three different meta descriptions of the same length each. I also added a unique series of characters and digits to the page. This combination did not appear in the Google index before the test. I made sure that the text appearing on the page itself did not match the meta descriptions, and that at least one unique term did appear in each description.

So what did I find out?

Only the first meta description gets shown
Some of the words contained in the first meta description will get highlighted
Terms contained only in the meta description won’t show up in search

So it’s everything as expected. The outcome does not contradict what we know or what Google has said for years.

Google ignores the additional meta description tags. There is no way to make them appear in search results.
Even the first one that gets indexed does not appear in the search results beyond the search snippet.
It’s not a ranking factor. So in a way you can’t even say it’s indexed. Google is just aware of it but it doesn’t count.

Google Social Search

On the other hand I was quite surprised about the way (Google) social search does work or not.

I tweeted the links from my ”power account” and expected it to get indexed immediately these days. What happened instead?

It took Google several minutes or maybe even a quarter of an hour; I didn’t check every minute to find it and it only showed up in “social search” results, not in regular Google results:

OK, I expected that the link would get indexed a bit later, but instead it not only didn’t, but it even vanished from my social search results as well after approx. a day.

After a week I gave up, and as the page still wasn’t in the main Google index I tweeted it again, and this time I asked for retweets from my followers. A few of them, I think five exactly because no tool has counted them, helped and retweeted it. After that, the URL appeared instantly in the main Google index, not just in the social search results.

So you need at least a bunch of retweets to get indexed by Google if your link solely appeared on Twitter, as was the case here. There may be a few reasons why my first link wasn’t used to index it at once:

Google knows that I’m the proprietor and webmaster of onreact.com, so they don’t count my own Twitter mention of it.
Google does not consider my Twitter account to be reliable and authoritative enough to show up new pages in Google results.
Google has a “first link does not count” rule when it comes to indexation of pages mentioned on Twitter, no matter who tweets it.

To be honest all three options sound realistic, but I’d rather expect a more complex combination of all three and some additional factors to play a role here. Nonetheless, the outcome is clear: just tweeting a link once is not necessarily enough for the page to appear in Google’s results.

It’s also worth mentioning that neither Bing nor Ask have been able to index the page at all. Even Twitter can’t find, it while at the same time some of the users who tweeted show up in the people search for the unique phrase.

So the good old link is still important when it comes to indexation. Don’t rely solely on tweets to succeed in search engines.

Visit http://onreact.com/mmdst1.html to take a look at the page I used for this SEO test.

© SEOptimise – Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. Google Test: Multiple Meta Descriptions Work as Expected, Social Search Does Not

Seth's Blog : Get better at buying

Get better at buying

There's incessant pressure on B2B sellers to get better at it. The boss wants the sales force to figure out how to approach, educate, close and support big companies and get them to buy their products and services.

But what about the big companies (not to mention the smaller ones) that are doing the buying? Ruth Stevens reports that the typical company with more than 1,000 employees has, on average, 21 different people involved in each sale of over $25,000.

Having made sales (when I was younger and more foolish) to ten of the thirty biggest companies in the country, I can testify that 21 might be an understatement. The typical big company's org chart is a mystery, the process is a mystery and there never seems to be an end to the roster of meetings and people. It's almost as though these companies don't want to buy anything.

Of course, the salesperson isn't the enemy, and buying from them isn't charity. The transaction happens because it benefits both sides, yet the byzantine maze, lack of information and endless circle is a real barrier to success for both sides.

First, this is screamingly inefficient. Second, it drives away the great opportunities, leaving the companies with no one but the sales-focused, uber-patient companies willing to put up with 21 different people and a million meetings.

If you want to increase productivity and discover new opportunities, you're going to need better vendors. One way to do that is to streamline your buying process and let the folks selling to you know how it works. They're not the enemy. In fact, they're your best source for off-the-shelf improvements and innovation you can start using tomorrow.

Whoever buys the best, wins.

Your purchasing department shouldn't be a backwater... it ought to be an engine of innovation for the rest of the organization.

I'd start by reaching out to companies that might be able to help your company. Give them an org chart. Give them an overview of the best way to sell to you. Issue a newsletter outlining regular news about successful sales and how they were made. Reward your employees when they help a new vendor make a sale that really benefits you. Hassle your employees if they hassle or lie to your vendors.

If a vendor asks, "are you serious about buying from us," the answer should either be, "yes," or perhaps, "no, thank you." But we're all too busy for power games.

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marți, 19 aprilie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Oklahoma Repeals Collective Bargaining Law; Economic Dunces in Enid
Birth and Death of the Celtic Tiger: Video on Ireland Bailout
It's Different in China and Here's Why; Is the Yuan Undervalued?
Holding Congress Accountable; Interest on National Debt is Biggest Projected Problem, Not Healthcare

Oklahoma Repeals Collective Bargaining Law; Economic Dunces in Enid

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 09:01 PM PDT

In yet another welcome display of common sense from state legislators, Oklahoma Senate approves collective bargaining repeal. Governor Mary Fallin is expected to sign the measure.

The Oklahoma Senate voted today to repeal a state law that grants collective bargaining rights to city employees in Oklahoma's largest cities.

House Bill 1593 passed 29-19 with entirely Republican support and now heads to Republican Gov. Mary Fallin.

The bill would repeal a 2004 law that requires cities with populations of more than 35,000 to grant collective bargaining rights to nonuniformed city workers.

The repeal would most directly affect local chapters of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which in Oklahoma consist mostly of city road and utility workers.

Sen. Cliff Aldridge, R-Midwest City, said the bill is good policy because it lets local officials decide whether to negotiate with labor unions.

Sen. Andrew Rice, D-Oklahoma City, criticized Republicans for failing to provide specific proof showing why repealing the law would be a good idea.

"There is no good reason for this," Rice said. "We're really sending a nasty message to the people who do work in our communities."

Union Rules Make Us All Slaves

Sen. Andrew Rice is a complete fool or bought and paid by public unions, most likely both.

Of course there is a good reason to end collective bargaining. Cities should strive to provide the most services for the least cost, not the least services for the most costs.

The goal of public unions is to provide the fewest services for the most amount. Thus public unions are incompatible with public service.

Moreover, and I will keep mentioning this point every time paid fools like Sen. Andrew Rice open their mouths: union rules make us all slaves.

I will hammer the slavery point home until it sinks in. If you have not yet done so, please read ....

Paul Krugman, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, others, Ignore Extortion, Bribery, Coercion, and Slavery; No One Should Own You!

Collective Bargaining neither a Privilege nor a Right

Economic Dunces in Enid

According to the article, Enid, Oklahoma population 49,000, Oklahoma's, ninth largest city, "will continue bargaining with employees even if the law is repealed."

Collective bargaining jacks ups costs and that means higher taxes for absolutely no possible added benefit, and most likely negative benefit. Thus, regardless of where you live, you should vow to remove from office out any fools taking such a stance.

Click on the preceding link, or phone the city manager at 580-616-72 and let the officials know what you think. You can also Email Mayor John Criner as well.

If you do the latter, please send him a link to this blog with your comments.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Birth and Death of the Celtic Tiger: Video on Ireland Bailout

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 02:26 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are watching an excellent exposé by Max Keiser on how the bad debts of the Irish banks were transferred to the balance sheets of Irish taxpayers.

Hot Spots with Max Keiser - Ireland Part 1

Link if above video does not play: Ireland Hot Spots 1

Hot Spots with Max Keiser - Ireland Part 2

Max Keiser: "The people of Ireland have been carpet-bombed with debt. An IMF loan has been forced on them to pay off the government debt forced on the to pay off bankers' debt. Most of the bankers have fled the country but their bad debts continue to explode like financial roadside bombs across Ireland."

"The IMF is raising money to do what could be called a hostile raid of Ireland. They are putting up Ireland's own assets including the national electric company as collateral for the money to do the hostile raid to pay off banks that made tragically poor investment decisions."

One interviewee said, "We are borrowing from tomorrow to pay for yesterday, forgetting about today".

The key question is: How long will the citizens of Ireland put up with this criminal behavior?

For more videos or to leave a comment for Max, please see Hotspots with Max Keiser: Ireland

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

It's Different in China and Here's Why; Is the Yuan Undervalued?

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 11:49 AM PDT

Most of you know I loathe "It's Different Here" type of arguments.

However, in a recent newsletter, Michael Pettis of China Financial Markets makes precisely that case regarding interest rate hikes and the effect on the savings' rate in China.

Pettis writes ...

Not surprisingly, many analysts and journalists reported the interest-rate hike as a way of combating inflation by encouraging Chinese households to increase their savings and so reduce their consumption. As the New York Times puts it, "Raising interest rates should encourage depositors to hold more money in their accounts." As I have written before, however, I suspect that this view reflects a very US-centric view of how financial systems translate changes in interest rates into changes in savings rates (via changes in household wealth).

In China this may be getting the reality backwards. After all, if high interest rates encourage savings, and low interest rates encourage consumption, it is hard to understand why China, with its incredibly low real deposit rates (in fact they are seriously negative, and have been for much of the past decade), has such a high household savings rate, not to mention, more generally, why other Asian countries with very low real interest rates have also had high savings.

I would suggest that the reason is pretty straightforward. Negative real deposit rates actually reduce household wealth in China by lowering the value of savings. Few households in China borrow, and most savings is in the form of deposits, not, as in the US, in the form of assets whose values typically decline with rising interest rates. Since nearly everyone in the world responds to lower income or wealth by cutting back on consumption, Chinese households actually increase their savings when the deposit rates decline in real terms.

So does that mean that the PBoC's raising interest rates will cause an increase in inflationary pressures? No, because interest rates have only been rising nominally.

China's "One Child Policy" and the Savings' Rate

I asked my friend "HB" on the Acting Man Austrian economics discussion blog what he thought of Pettis' idea. "HB" writes ...

I think Pettis may well be right. Think about it this way: China doesn't have a very well developed welfare state. Moreover, China's "one child policy" means that parents cannot rely on children supporting them in their old age. Therefore, a high savings rate is the natural outcome, primarily to provide for an extremely uncertain future. Thus, lowering interest rates on savings is a recipe to reduce consumption further.

Compounding the problem, China's negative interest rate (in real terms) has fueled a malinvestment boom that is truly of historic proportions.

Malinvestment Boom

Most of the Western world looks on China's growth with a sense of wonder, awe, and even envy. However, Austrian-minded economists and writers see China's growth differently. We see the boom in China as malinvestment, much like the US housing bubble.

Growth for growth's sake (or to keep the population employed and prevent uprisings), eventually hits a brick wall. Sooner or later there comes a point where building houses, airports, malls, and cities results in a rapid expansion of credit at a cost that vastly exceeds any conceivable benefit.

In China, that point has long been reached. Shopping centers, commercial real estate, apartments, and even entire cities sit empty. Yet the building continues as credit expands. The cost is spiraling inflation and debts that cannot and will not be paid back.

There is early evidence China's growth is rapidly slowing already. Please see Hidden Losses and Little Reform; China May Be Slowing More Than You Think

Is the Yuan Undervalued?

Eventually China's property bubble will crash and China's entire infrastructure boom along with it. When that happens, it will take a monumental effort to recapitalize China's banks.

In light of that last statement, the widespread belief that the Yuan is massively undervalued is at best questionable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Holding Congress Accountable; Interest on National Debt is Biggest Projected Problem, Not Healthcare

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 03:13 AM PDT

My biggest complaints against Obama's budget plan and the budget plan of Paul Ryan are

Neither plan balances the budget soon enough
Both ignore interest on the national debt

Practically Speaking, Neither Plan Can Pass

Balancing the budget 20 or 30 years from now is not acceptable. It is hard to enough to plan 5 years ahead, and it's downright silly to think one can balance a budget 20-30 years ahead.

Obama's plan is far worse than Ryan's, but practically speaking, neither works. Moreover, politically speaking, neither can pass.

Need to Set Goals

To accomplish anything we need to set a goal. I proposed such a goal in Simple Proposal: Balance the budget by 2022 come hell or high water

Holding Someone Accountable

One problem with every proposal to date, including mine, is that no one is accountable. By that I mean there is no enforcement mechanism.

Realistically, there never can be a guaranteed enforcement mechanism because any agreements or legislation passed by this Congress does can be undone by the next Congress.

However, if both sides share the pain equally in any resolution, it will be much harder for one side to game the system or refuse to cooperate.

Budget Projections From Peterson-Pew Commission

To rectify the shortcoming I mentioned above, the Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform has proposed a trigger enforcement mechanisms to Get Back in the Black.

I do not agree with all of their proposals. Indeed their target of cutting $4 trillion over 10 years is certainly wimpy. It will not balance the budget soon enough, if indeed ever.

Nonetheless, this budget projection in their 48 page PDF caught my eye.

Spending and Revenues 1980-2080

click on chart for sharper image

I sent an email to the Peterson-Pew Commission because I would like to know just what interest rates they have factored in to create that chart.

Whatever the rates are, note that interest on the national debt will eventually become the biggest fiscal issue.

Projection Silliness

Mathematically speaking, if projecting 30 years ahead is silliness, what does that say about projecting 70 years ahead?

Reflect back to 2000. What happened to the budget surplus that was supposed to last a decade? Greenspan had the audacity to agree with that projection. Did the surplus last six months or was it imaginary to begin with? I vote the latter.

Looking ahead, interest on the national debt will continue to rise until debt levels shrink.

Fed's Exit Plan in Question

How likely is it that interest rates will drop? Short-term rates can't. Unfortunately, the Fed is not locking in low long-term rates now. Instead, the Fed is buying treasuries rather than selling them in a foolish attempt to force down rates. That plan has failed, yet the Fed persists.

Supposedly the Fed has an "exit plan", but whatever that plan is, long-term rates are likely to rise. When they rise, so will interest on the national debt.

Failed Budget Process

From the Peterson-Pew report ....

A budget process can only be judged by its results. The current process has allowed the federal government to commit to spending far more than the revenues it will collect. The budget is deep in the red, and getting it back into the black cannot be accomplished without major actions. Although the heart of the problem is the lack of political will to make responsible policy choices, the broken process contributes significantly to the nation's dangerous fiscal situation.

Today, budgets are created annually, without any kind of fiscal target guiding the process. There is no single identifiable "budget," and the President and congressional committees operate on separate tracks with no shared objective: the President makes a proposal; and the House and Senate Budget Committees may, or may not, develop their own budget resolutions, which, however, lack the force of law. Increasingly, there is no comprehensive action on a budget at all: rather, the government operates on a series of short-term appropriations or continuing resolutions, followed by huge omnibus spending bills, with occasional piecemeal enactment of changes in other spending or tax laws. In practice, the bulk of the government's spending and revenue occurs on autopilot, without annual review or
any constraint on growth.

The current budget framework is too short-sighted and tends to focus primarily on the upcoming year. The result is that lawmakers routinely continue programs that could not withstand rigorous evaluation of their costs and benefits. The short-term appeal of the government's spending more than the people are willing to pay has contributed to deficit spending—even during periods of economic growth, when surpluses should be the norm. Erosion of the commitment to balanced budgets has produced an environment in which it has become acceptable to borrow in order to spend more. While borrowing is not always bad—it can be useful in a recession—sustained periods of borrowing damage the economy and eventually lower the nation's living standards.

Current unsustainable policies result in large part from a process that does not require policymakers to lay out a fiscal plan with feasible limits or to consider the long-term implications of their decisions.

No Plan Can Work When the Process is Broken

Can anyone from either party dispute the notion the budget process is broken? I think not.

The question then is what to do about it. Unfortunately, the Pew Commission ignores the fact that the lobbyists write our legislation (GE's corporate tax rate is proof enough). However, the report does have some ideas with potential to rectify some of the flawed process.

Establish Strong and Comprehensive Enforcement Procedures

From page 19 of the report ....

Past automatic triggers have failed in part because so many programs were exempt from the trigger and it was so easy to bypass the restrictions. The Commission recommends that its proposed triggers apply to the broadest base possible, including all discretionary and mandatory programs and all taxes. For revenues, the Commission proposes a broad-based surtax; for spending, all programs—both mandatory and discretionary—would have across the board reductions. The debt trigger would be 50 percent tax increases and 50 percent spending cuts, with credit given for policies enacted that year on either side of the budget. A broad base would be more effective in keeping the plan on track because it would raise the political consequences for policymakers of failing to meet targets. It would thereby create incentives for Congress and the President to craft their own fiscal policies, rather than relying on formulaic reductions to meet the debt targets.

History of Budget Trigger Failures

Ignoring details regarding proposed cuts, a target of $4 trillion in cuts spread out over 10 years is simply not deep enough. It would not balance the budget soon, if indeed ever. That chart of interest on the national debt shows exactly why.

Box 6 on page 20 gives "A History of Budget Triggers in the US". Unfortunately, the success rate has been horrendous for various reasons.

Would another set of more comprehensive triggers be any better? The answer is perhaps. The reason is there are distasteful provisions that affect both parties as well as provisions both parties would like.

Republicans would be in favor of forced spending cuts, Democrats in favor of forced tax hikes. Both sides just may take that into consideration before passing more pork barrel legislation.

Color me skeptical, but another go at triggers probably cannot hurt. Regardless, triggers or not, something has to give because the US is on a path to fiscal ruin.

For additional discussion, please see Deficit Reduction: Are Higher Taxes and Reduced Military Spending Coming? Can the "Gang of Six" Accomplish Anything?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

miercuri, 20 aprilie 2011

Today: President Obama’s Facebook Town Hall

Seth's Blog : Do the Work is out today

Do the Work is out today

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Seth's Blog : Get better at buying

Get better at buying

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marți, 19 aprilie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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miercuri, 20 aprilie 2011

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marți, 19 aprilie 2011

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