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vineri, 23 septembrie 2011

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Posted: 23 Sep 2011 01:43 AM PDT

For those of you who missed the Livestream of yesterday’s F8 Facebook Conference, CEO Mark Zuckerburg announced some major changes to the future of Facebook, which in a nutshell is to try and realise his vision of making the whole web social. Within Facebook, the focus is shifting from ‘what you say’ to ‘what you do’. Here are some of the major changes announced:

1. Facebook Profiles Are Replaced With ‘Timelines’
Facebook claimed that Facebook is no longer going to show ’15 minutes of your story’ but instead a timeline of your life. Here is a snapshot of the new Facebook Timeline design.

2. Facebook Announce Open Graph
Facebook have announced that they’re going to be closing down their ‘Connect’ product and replacing it with a new protocol and API called Open Graph. The purpose of Open Graph is to help external websites integrate with Facebook as easily as possible. Websites currently using the Open Graph include Microsoft’s Docs.com, Pandora, and Yelp.

The Open Graph will also allow external websites to auto-login users who have never visited the website before, raising some serious privacy concerns.

3. Facebook Verbs
Facebook have announced a new set of verbs that can be used to interact with content. You no longer have to ‘like’ a post – instead, you can ‘watch’, ‘hike’, ‘cook’, ‘bike’, ‘listen’, or ‘read’ people’s updates.

Here is a good post outlining what Facebook Verbs mean for marketers.

Other Updates

There were also more updates announced around Facebook launching a new ‘Facebook Bar’, new like buttons, advanced location tracking, and more social plugins. Here is a more in-depth summary of some of these minor updates.

How to Pass the Google Analytics Exam

Posted: 22 Sep 2011 08:02 AM PDT

If you want to become qualified in Google Analytics, Google offer an online exam called the Google Analytics Individual Qualification. It's a useful qualification to have when working with Google Analytics on your clients' sites (and you should be using some analytics software!).

I passed the test last week and thought I’d put together a few tips for anyone else who may be thinking of taking the exam.

General Information

The exam is all done online in a multiple choice format, usually with four different options for each question. There are 70 questions in total and you have 90 minutes to complete these questions. If you think that doesn't sound like enough time don't worry, you’ll be able to answer most of the questions quickly and I found I had a lot of spare time when I finished.

Unlike the Google AdWords exam, the exam is "open book", so you can look up resources during the test if you need to.

Once you’ve gained your qualification it will last for 18 months, so don’t forget that you will need to take it again in a year and a half if you want to stay qualified!

Resources for Preparing for the Exam

Easily the most useful thing to do is watch the video lessons at Conversion University. Watch as many of these as you can if you have the time, as they are all very useful, but the most important ones will be the videos on cookies, filters and regex.

Have a read through the help center on any topics you feel you aren't confident on after watching the videos.

Also, experiment! Take what you've learnt and try it out in Google Analytics. Familiarise yourself with all parts of the interface, try applying filters, add users etc. Set up a new profile so you don't affect any important profiles in your account, and once you're confident with everything you've learnt, it's time to take the exam!

Resources for When You're Taking the Exam

That's right, as I said earlier the exam is "open book", so prepare yourself and have these links open on your browser before you start in case you need to refer to them:

Your Analytics account
While this might seem a bit obvious, it's important to have in case you forget where something is located in the interface. You don't want to be worrying about logging in while the timer is counting down, so log in and have a profile open before you start.

Analytics Help Center
This is useful for when you forget something. A quick search for the relevant topic should refresh your memory, so keep this open in the background.

IP Range Tool
You may get a question asking for a regular expression to cover a range of IP addresses. Luckily Google provides a tool to do just that. Just type in the two ranges and it gives you the regular expression to use.

Regex Tester
I found this tool quite useful for testing any regex rules. Type the rule in the top and enter the URL in the bottom and it will highlight it if it meets the rule.

URL Builder
Another useful tool from Google. This will add tracking parameters to a URL.

Google Analytics API
You may get asked about some of the functions in the Analytics API, so you can find descriptions of what each of them do here.

Of course this list isn't exhaustive, so if there was anything else useful you came across when preparing be sure to have that open too.

After the exam

Hopefully if you follow these tips you too can pass the Analytics exam. Then it's just a matter of showing off your new certificate!

* CC Image by Alberto G.

Seth's Blog : Talker's block

Talker's block

No one ever gets talker's block. No one wakes up in the morning, discovers he has nothing to say and sits quietly, for days or weeks, until the muse hits, until the moment is right, until all the craziness in his life has died down.

Why then, is writer's block endemic?

The reason we don't get talker's block is that we're in the habit of talking without a lot of concern for whether or not our inane blather will come back to haunt us. Talk is cheap. Talk is ephemeral. Talk can be easily denied.

We talk poorly and then, eventually (or sometimes), we talk smart. We get better at talking precisely because we talk. We see what works and what doesn't, and if we're insightful, do more of what works. How can one get talker's block after all this practice?

Writer's block isn't hard to cure.

Just write poorly. Continue to write poorly, in public, until you can write better.

I believe that everyone should write in public. Get a blog. Or use Squidoo or Tumblr or a microblogging site. Use an alias if you like. Turn off comments, certainly--you don't need more criticism, you need more writing.

Do it every day. Every single day. Not a diary, not fiction, but analysis. Clear, crisp, honest writing about what you see in the world. Or want to see. Or teach (in writing). Tell us how to do something.

If you know you have to write something every single day, even a paragraph, you will improve your writing. If you're concerned with quality, of course, then not writing is not a problem, because zero is perfect and without defects. Shipping nothing is safe.

The second best thing to zero is something better than bad. So if you know you have write tomorrow, your brain will start working on something better than bad. And then you'll inevitably redefine bad and tomorrow will be better than that. And on and on.

Write like you talk. Often.

• Email to a friend •

joi, 22 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Man Works 1 Day for Chicago, Goes on Extended Leave for 15 Years, Gets $158,000 Annual Public Pension at Taxpayer Expense, Now Working for Hedge Fund
Hidden Losses, Lack of Liquidity at Spanish Banks; No Bidders for State Owned CAM
Bizarro World Inflation; About that 2011 Hyperinflation Call ...
Hello Global Recession
Asia Bloodbath Follows US Selloff on Wednesday; Europe Bloodbath Follows Asia Bloodbath; US Futures Red for Thursday

Man Works 1 Day for Chicago, Goes on Extended Leave for 15 Years, Gets $158,000 Annual Public Pension at Taxpayer Expense, Now Working for Hedge Fund

Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:27 PM PDT

If you need evidence on how corrupt self-serving unions and union officials can be, then please consider Ex-labor chief's 1-day rehire nets $158,000 city pension

A retired Chicago labor leader secured a $158,000 public pension — roughly five times greater than what a typical retired public-service worker in the Windy City receives — after being rehired for just one day of active duty on the city payroll, local news reports said.

According to The Chicago Tribune, Dennis Gannon stands to collect approximately $5 million in city pension funds during his lifetime. He now draws the pension while working for a hedge fund, the Tribune reported.

Gannon, former president of the Chicago Federation of Labor, was able to take a long leave from a city job to work for a union and then receive a city pension based on a high union salary. That arrangement is allowed under a state law signed by Gov. Jim Thompson on his last day in office in 1991, according to an investigation by the Tribune and WGN-TV.

The change has enabled a couple dozen labor leaders to become potential millionaires.

What is different in Gannon's case is that he became eligible for the especially lucrative pension deal only because the city rehired the former Streets and Sanitation Department worker for one day in 1994, before granting him an indefinite leave of absence, according to the investigation. He retired from the city job in 2004 at age 50.

Gannon's pension is so high that it exceeds federal limits and required Chicago's pension fund to file special paperwork with the Internal Revenue Service to give it to him, the Tribune reported.

"I am extremely proud of my many years of service to the city of Chicago and the working men and women of organized labor," Gannon wrote in a statement provided to the Tribune.

The tribune reports ...

The pension came on top of Gannon's union salary, which had grown to more than $240,000. He now draws the pension while working for a hedge fund, Grosvenor Capital Management, that does work with public pensions, including the Teachers Retirement System of Illinois. The firm also was one of Mayor Rahm Emanuel's largest campaign contributors.

Chicago Teacher's Pensions Massively Underfunded

Care to see the results Gannon presided over? Please consider Interactive Map of Public Pension Plans; How Badly Underfunded are the Plans in Your State?

Illinois has the worst public pension plans in the country as of April 2010. I am sure it is still true today. See link for more details.

Gannon says "I am extremely proud of my many years of service to the city of Chicago"

I believe he means one day of service for which he will collect $4 million for ripping off taxpayers for his own personal gain. Yes, that is something to be damn proud of.

For Dennis Gannon to go on leave after 1 day shows this was all planned from the outset. Moreover, by granting the leave, the corrupt Streets and Sanitation Department went along with it all the way.

Any guesses as to how many bribes and payoffs were associated with this chain of events?

It is time to end public unions entirely and all the associated graft.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hidden Losses, Lack of Liquidity at Spanish Banks; No Bidders for State Owned CAM

Posted: 22 Sep 2011 01:38 PM PDT

The following translations are quite choppy, but the gist should be easy to understand. No one believes the Bank of Spain regarding potential writeoffs on banks it has taken over, especially CAM.

CAM has 40% Delinquency Rate, Risk of 17.5 Billion Euros

Exposure to CAM brick is around 17,500 million with a 40% default

2011-09-21
The Caja del Mediterráneo (CAM), taken over and operated by the Bank of Spain, has a risk to construction and property development of around 17.5 billion euros, with a delinquency rate greater than 40%.

Big Banks Not Willing to Bid on CAM

The bank of Spain wants to auction off CAM. No one wants it.

Banks ask to exclude bad assets for a bid on the CAM

2011-09-21
The big banks are not willing to risk a penny by the CAM. First, because they do not trust the real hole in the accounting. And second, because the economic and current market circumstances advise extreme caution.

Some institutions have already taken this message to the Bank of Spain, and have asked for the creation of a bad bank, with assets of more than 17 billion (apartments, home loans and equity to developers). This entity would take toxic assets of the intervened Caja that would then be excluded from the auction and, therefore, would remain under the umbrella of the Bank Restructuring Fund (Frob).

Industry sources say that this model has already been used in the case of Caja Castilla La Mancha , whose industrial portfolio, the main problem of La Mancha, was excluded from the package that eventually was awarded Cajastur, and is now owned by the Deposit Guarantee Fund (FGD) . The same sources acknowledge, however, that previously the legislation and the situation were different .

The Bank of Spain is reluctant to grant this request, but considers all the possibilities of fear of an unsuccessful bid, which would be a resounding failure in the process of restructuring of the sector. The regulator considers that articulating a bad bank could set a precedent and private investors would have opened the door for these conditions apply to entities where the FROB enters this September-CatalunyaCaixa, Unnim NovaCaixaGalicia - when acquiring the remaining participation in them.

Bank of Spain Changes Conditions on Auction to Sell CAM

Bank of Spain Changes Conditions on Auction to Sell CAM

2011-09-20
The plight of the markets and the financial sector has caused a radical change in the method of the Bank of Spain to sell the CAM.

As noted in El Confidential September 12, the Bank of Spain has offered to potential buyers an EPA that covers 90% of all losses surfacing in the most deteriorated assets of the CAM -primarily promoter credit and troubled realty- over the next 10 years, except for the first 2.5 billion, where coverage is 80%.

The lack of liquidity has become so acute that the entities are looking for any formula to take it out from under the stones: deposits at 4% (Popular, Pastor) or even 5% (CatalunyaCaixa, if only for part of the money), and the latest shout, high-yield promissory notes that allow banks to avoid Government penalization of the super deposits (Sabadell, Santander).In this frame of mind, to take the monstrous maturities of CAM can be suicidal for almost anyone.

But it's not just that.The buyer of CAM, including Santander and BBVA would have to raise capital to absorb the 70 billion of its stock, despite having EPA. And in this capital expansion, the market punishment would be terrible: they would have to place at a price so low that the cost of capital would be tremendous, impossible to renabilize with the levels of ROE (return on capital) expected in a foreseeable future.The deadline for receiving expressions of interest closes on September 26, while not indicating offers are firm. If there are no interested investors, the Bank of Spain will have to consider the hash and the piecemeal sale of the CAM.

For ease in understanding I flipped the order of those articles. Note that even with guarantees, and a change in conditions, no one wants to bid on CAM. Here is one more concern.

Three Savings Banks Hid Losses of 2.5 Billion Euros

Three Savings Banks in Spain Hid Losses of 2.5 Billion Euros

2011-09-20
three cases yielded higher losses to 2,500 million euros, resulting from a dramatic increase in arrears (in some cases nearly quadrupled compared to the official announcement before he entered the Bank of Spain).

The problem is that these entities had passed without difficulty supposedly strict regulatory controls. Although the Government insists that there are no surprises and that the financial system is recapitalized and in recovery, with this background it is not surprising that there are still many who do not rely finish.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Bizarro World Inflation; About that 2011 Hyperinflation Call ...

Posted: 22 Sep 2011 08:04 AM PDT

Time has run out for that 2011 hyperinflation call made by numerous people.

Hyperinflation is not synonymous with all-time low yields across the entire US treasury curve.

Yield Curve as of 2011-09-21

It seems hyperinflationists forgot to factor in the possibility the Euro, the British Pound, and the Yen (yet to come), just all may be far worse hiding places than the US dollar.

Not in Love With Dollar

It's not that I am in love with the dollar. Indeed I am not. I like gold. Historically, gold does well in periods of deflation and periods of credit stress. I also point out that gold fell from $850 to $250 from 1980 to 2000 with inflation every step of the way. Gold is decidedly not a hedge against inflation in any practical sense.

As measured by credit (and numerous other factor) the US is back in deflation now.

I offered strong proof in Yes Virginia, U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over.

As a followup please see Bernanke's Waterloo; Midst of Deflationary Collapse or Brink of Inflationary Disaster? 12 Specific Recommendations

Don't Get Hung Up on the Term "Deflation"

I get emails nearly every day about prices. I also get emails nearly every day about money supply. Here's the deal:

If money supply is your measure of inflation, we are in it and likely will be for a long time.
If the CPI is your measure of inflation, we are in it, and may remain in it more often than not.

That really has been my stance for years. Nothing has changed. People get hung up on the term "deflation". Perhaps I should have made up a new name.

After all, the term "stagflation" was invented to explain what Keynesian clowns thought impossible (rising inflation and a recession). Keynesian thinking should have died right then and there. Unfortunately it didn't, and the economy still suffers today because it didn't.

Regardless of what you think about the Fed manipulating the yield curve (and they are), the market has to accommodate.

For example, the ECB bought and is still buying Italian bonds. Here is the result.

Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Here is Germany for comparison purposes.

Germany 10-Year Government Bond Yield

The ECB also bought Greek debt then threw in the towel.

Greece 1-Year Government Bond Yield

The Fed and ECB can suggest, not mandate. If the market refuses to go along there is little central banks can do about it.

Bernanke's Waterloo

Here is a snip from Bernanke's Waterloo mentioned above.

Hyperinflation is complete silliness at this point. Were it to come, it would be an act of Congress that would create it, not an act of the Fed, and the Fed would probably have to play along. I doubt the Fed would. For all its many faults, the Fed does not want to destroy banks. Hyperinflation would do just that.

The Republican dominated House wants little or nothing to do with more stimulus. Certainly US government debt is going to mount, but it is going to mount in Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK as well.

Moreover, Eurozone structural issues matter now, while US government debt will matter more in the years to come.

Midst of Deflationary Collapse or Brink of Inflationary Disaster?

Although the Keynesian and Monetarist economists have missed the boat on what is happening and why, Austrian minded folks who fail to understand the importance of credit and how little the Fed can do to revive it have blown the call as well.

It pains me to see articles like On the Brink of Inflationary Disaster by Austrian economist Robert Murphy.

We are clearly in the midst of a deflationary collapse as noted in Yes Virginia, U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over

Focus on Money Supply Alone is Fatally Flawed

Deflation is about credit, it is also about attitudes that govern the demand for credit.

As I have stated many times over the years, and as stated above in the Contrary Investor, there is nothing the Fed can do to force businesses to expand or banks to lend.

That point explains why Austrian economists who focus on money supply alone have failed and will continue to fail.

Until consumer demand returns, businesses would be foolish to expand. Unfortunately, the Fed's misguided easing policies have stimulated commodity speculation thereby increasing manufacturing costs, while simultaneously clobbering those on fixed income and reducing final consumer demand.

I wrote about the plight of those on fixed income in Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie" back in January. Please give it a read if you have not yet done so.

Reversion to the Mean Nonsense

Yet the emails still pour in. Someone even told me collapsing housing prices, the collapsing stock market, etc, was not a result of deflation but rather "reversion to the mean".

What about 2-year treasuries at .2%. Let's forget about that. Let's forget about jobs, let's forget about banks not lending (because they can't), let's forget about countless things and conveniently label everything else reversion to to the mean. Imagine the reaction I would get if short-term treasury yields rose to 3% and I called it "reversion to the mean".

Bizarro World Definitions

Let's not call this deflation. Instead let's label this "banana soup" or "disinflation" as some propose.

I am tired of arguing about "definitions".

The term "deflation" in and of itself is meaningless. However, the lack of jobs, collapsing housing prices, inability of banks to lend, defaults, competitive currency devaluations, and everything else any reasonable person would equate with deflation are not meaningless.

I choose to believe that if vast majority of the symptoms match the disease most would associate with "deflation" we are in it, even if one or two symptoms don't match.

You are free to believe otherwise, but please do not tell me I am wrong. I am right, based on my definition: Deflation is a net decrease in money supply and credit with credit marked to market.

If you think we are in a period of inflation with 10-year treasury yields at 1.8% and short-term yields frequently negative, then we are. Not on planet earth of course, but on Bizarro World. It's all in the definition.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hello Global Recession

Posted: 22 Sep 2011 07:46 AM PDT

If you did not know it before, you should know it now: The global economy is in recession.

US Treasury Yield Curve

Germany Government Bond Yield Curve

UK Government Bond Yield Curve

Japan Government Bond Yield Curve

Australia Government Bond Yield Curve

Brazil Government Bond Yield Curve

Charts courtesy of Bloomberg

Huge equity market gaps down have a tendency to be bought, but I do not care where the market closes today. Nor do I do care or whether the EU or IMF manages to pull one more preposterous "Greece will not default" attempt out of its tattered hat.

These curves are not synonymous with growth and we are not going to see growth either. Germany, Australia, and Brazil curves are inverted. Short-term yields are so low in the US and Japan that there is no room for inversion.

No Hiding Places

On September 19th I wrote No Hiding Spots Except Despised US Dollar: Equities Red, Metals Red, Energy Red, Grains Red

No Hiding Spots Except Despised US Dollar

If you have not done so already done so, please consider the possibility there will be no hiding spots except for US dollars and short-term US treasuries (yielding nothing) in a renewed strong downturn.

I expect gold to hold up in a major decline, but I could easily be wrong. One encouraging sign is the $HUI gold miner index is down less than a percent even though gold is down by 2% and the S&P and Dow are down by almost 2% as well.

Currencies

Today there are indeed no hiding spots. Currencies other than the US dollar and Yen are clobbered.

Note in particular the bleak picture in the "hard" currencies of Australia and Canada. There is no reason to believe the Loonie or the Australian dollar will be a safe haven. When China slows (and it will), it will hit the commodity currencies hard.

I have been saying that for months. See Michael Pettis: Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions for details.

Gold, Metals Smashed

Commodities across the board are an ocean of red. I still expect gold to hold up well, at least on a relative basis. I could be wrong. There may indeed be no hiding places in this downturn.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Asia Bloodbath Follows US Selloff on Wednesday; Europe Bloodbath Follows Asia Bloodbath; US Futures Red for Thursday

Posted: 22 Sep 2011 01:50 AM PDT

Unless there is a dramatic change in the European markets in the next few hours, there is going to be significant follow-through to the post-FOMC selloff in the US. Here are a few screen shots as of approximately 3:30 AM Central.

Asia Pacific

Europe

US Futures

S&P 500 Down 18 points - 1.6%
Nasdaq 100 Index Down 31 Points - 1.4%

We have seen futures turn around countless times. Unless the ECB or EU has another rabbit in its hat, this one will stick.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

AdSense display ads will now feature the +1 button

Hello,

In the next month, we'll introduce the +1 button and personal recommendations to display ads. The +1 button will begin to appear on AdSense for Content and AdSense for Mobile Content display ad formats -- image, animated gif, and Flash. +1s will be one additional signal to help determine an ad's relevance and we'll continue to show the ads that will generate the most revenue for you.

We previously launched the +1 button on Google search and for publisher sites to make it easier for people to share and discover content across the web. Soon, your users will be able to endorse specific ads and make the ads more likely to appear to their social connections. We believe that these recommendations could help your readers notice ads on your site more, leading to higher returns for you over time.

If you prefer not to show the +1 buttons on display ads on your pages, you can opt out in your account. For more information please visit the Inside AdSense blog.

Sincerely,

The Google AdSense team

© 2011 Google Inc. 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043
You have received this mandatory email service announcement to update you about important changes to your AdSense product or account.

vineri, 23 septembrie 2011

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Other Updates

Seth's Blog : Talker's block

Talker's block

More Recent Articles

joi, 22 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

AdSense display ads will now feature the +1 button

Pagini

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Arhivă blog

vineri, 23 septembrie 2011

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

Other Updates

Seth's Blog : Talker's block

Talker's block

More Recent Articles

joi, 22 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

AdSense display ads will now feature the +1 button

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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