luni, 21 noiembrie 2011

Introducing SERP Turkey: A Free Tool to Split-Test and Gather CTR Analytics of SERP Entries

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 12:48 PM PST

SERP Turkey logo

Measuring CTR data in search engine results is notoriously difficult, and with Google's recent move to HTTPS for logged in users it's only going to get worse.

The problems include, but are not limited to:

How can you record the clicks?
How can you know what position you were in?
What snippet was shown?
What did the other entries look like?
What ads were shown?

There are so many factors and no good way to gather the data meaning that the signal-to-noise ratio basically makes the exercise worthless. Furthermore, the delay in making changes (trying a new title, for instance) and getting data is simply agonizing.

What I wanted was a simple way to measure the change in CTR for a given search query's results when I adjusted entries, but nothing existed.... so I built it. I think I got pretty close to what I wanted; it isn't perfect but it is quick, cheap and the signal-to-noise ratio is the best I've seen (certainly for the price!). Here I show you how I tested it, and how you can use it for your own tests.

Introducing SERP Turkey

My plan was simple:

Build a dummy search engine page.
Create multiple instances of the SERPs for a given keyword.
Push Mechanical Turk users to these pages and measure the clicks.
Examine analytics. Be happy.

Basically, SERP Turkey is what I came up with. It allows you to enter a keyword for a search, import the search results from Google for that search and then edit each entry's title, description/snippet, display URL and re-order them as you see fit. You can create multiple variants of the SERPs for split testing, or you can just keep to one and measure the CTR distribution. You can then take your test link and either share it with a pool of testers, send to your friends on Twitter, or do what I did and send it to Amazon Mechanical Turk. (If you don't know- it mTurk is a service that allows you to push simple 'human intelligence tasks' to a workforce of thousands, who you pay a few cents a time to complete your task.)

Each user who visits the test will then be shown the dummy search page and a randomly select variant from those you created, and their click is recorded. You can then examine (and download as CSV) the CTR of each entry for each variant and hopefully draw some conclusions from it. You can run tests that gather results from 200 users for as little as about $10 and the results will be in within 2-3 days.

Before we move on, here is how the dummy search page results look for a test:

You can visit this test page for yourself right here, if you want - feel free to click a result and see what happens. :)

You can see that the navigation links, and adverts that a user would expect to see on a search engine results page are there, but they are blurred out so as not to attract clicks or distract the user. Overall the page looks pretty much like the results pages that a user would be used to seeing. There is some instructional text and a message at the top to make clear that this isn't a real search engine (which would be against Mechanical Turk rules). In this initial version there is no rich snippets or other verticals (news / images / videos), but I would like to add those in for the next version.

So far, so good....

But Tom... are these clicks going to be reliable?!

This was the first thing that I wondered about. Will mTurk testers or other testers (co-workers, Twitter users, or anyone else) really be motivated to do the test properly? Won't mTurk users just click the top hit to collect their payment?

With regards to mTurk, you'll find that most workers do pay attention (not all, but most) because you have to approve their work and their 'approval rate' is a criteria that can bar them from getting more work.

However, that wasn't good enough for me - I wanted data to be sure, so I ran a sanity check test...

I ran a search for 'sharks' and imported the results into SERP Turkey. I then ran a search for 'great white sharks' and I imported the top two results and placed them in positions four and six of the 'sharks' results. I setup the SERP Turkey results page to show that the search term was 'great white sharks', however, the results showed were the 'sharks' results with my two more relevant results inserted.

This is how it looked:

I pushed this out to Amazon Turk and gathered some results to see whether, as I hoped people would click the two relevant results.

I won't keep you in suspense; here is how the results look in SERP Turkey:

(click to enlarge)

The results on the left show the raw clicks (first click per user only - if they went back and clicked a second result it is ignored), and the results on the right showed the results when those faster than five seconds are filtered out. I knew some users wouldn't look properly and I found five seconds a good threshold for filtering out people who just clicked without really looking (you can view any time threshold you want).

You can see in both cases that over 65% of the clicks were focused on the two 'most relevant' results. In both cases the Wikipedia page for 'sharks' in position number 1 also attracted a lot of clicks, but it is also a relevant result and I imagine that it mimics real search results in some sense (it is in position 1, it is wikipedia, it isn't irrelevant).

Conclusion: The point of the experiment was to demonstrate that test users, on the whole, examined the results properly before making a decision. What we found was exactly that - users do seem to pay attention and hunt out the most relevant results.

This experiment involved 200 Amazon Turk users who I paid $0.05 each. When filtered I used 174 data points, as shown above. Total cost to me, with Amazon's fee, was only $11! It took about three days to gather the data- but this could be sped up with a higher bid, if you're in a rush. You can run multiple tests at the same time too.

Test 2: Does Wikipedia really get a higher CTR? Obama lets us know...

So now it seemed the tool worked I wanted to take it for a test drive, and test the split-testing part of the tool. I decided I'd test to see whether just being Wikipedia really is enough to overcome your position. Would a Wikipedia entry in position 3 beat out a relevant entry in position 2?

I ran a search for 'Barack Obama' and imported the results into SERP Turkey. Wikipedia was in predictably in position 1, but I didn't want the fact that many searchers often just click the first result to interfere too much with my experiment. So using the power of the Turkey, I created two variants; the first had the Wikipedia entry in position 2 and the second had the Wikipedia entry in position 3. Here is the first variant:

You can see the top four results are all pretty relevant. You can see the test page for yourself here. Feel free to play around.

I pushed it out to Amazon Turk again, and the results came in:

(click to enlarge)

On the left we see Wikipedia in 2nd, and on the right we see it in 3rd with whitehouse.gov taking the other slot.

Despite whitehouse.gov being a very relevant link, sure enough Wikipedia does overcome being in 3rd position to still garner 1/3rd of the clicks - doubling the whitehouse.gov in position 3.

Another interesting result we see is that when Wikipedia is further from the top of the results it seems the user is more inclined to continue searching yet further down the results, and result number 4 begins to see an uptake in clicks.

Conclusion: It seems that Wikipedia does command additional CTR just for being who they are.

Bonus Conclusion: From a single experiment with so few data points (118 users' clicks are included above) it is hard to draw an accurate conclusion as to how other categories of search will be affected. But it seems that having Wikipedia further from the top is better for the little guys down below in the results.

This one cost me less than $10 on mTurk.

Test 3: Lets tinker with the meta description and measure CTR change

So, I'll start of by saying that I thought this experiment was going to be a fantastic demonstration of how a bad meta description can really damage your CTR. However, this experiment did not go how I expected at all...

So here are the top results (in SERP Turkey, imported from Google) for a search for "electric toothbrushes":

Sonicare have position 1, beating out Wikipedia and their competition. Great job guys, we say... then we look at the snippet. They don't even have a meta description on the page!?

So I thought - ok, let's test how much better they'd do for taking two minutes to add one. All those $$$ just waiting for the taking. So I added a second variant and edited the description:

I based the description from a snippet I found on their site, and tidied it up a bit. Even has the magic word 'free'!

Let's show them what they're missing:

(click to enlarge)

The CTR fell!! I was pretty surprised by this, and I'm not sure I have a very good explanation of why it is.

Tentative Conclusion: The workers for this came from worldwide, and may not be aware of the Sonicare brand. I can only imagine that when I entered my 'improved' description it became clear that this wasn't and informational page but a commercial/brand one, but that workers had interpreted the search as an informational one (or at least wanted review type pages instead of a specific brand). I'm really not sure - I'd welcome your theories in the comments.

Breaking news Conclusion: At time of writing, I'm running a second copy of this test, but instead of my snippet, I took Wikipedia's and added it as Sonicare's snippet. Currently I have only ~70 recorded clicks, but I am seeing an approximate 1.5-2% increase in CTR when I use this non-commercial snippet which seems to confirm my suspicion above.

Lesson: It demonstrates that it is easy to make intuitive leaps that aren't necessarily as straightforward as you imagine. In the case presented, I do think that in reality, for transactional searches that Sonicare is aiming at that having an improved description would be a good thing.

Finally... beware of foreigners!! ;)

So, I'm a Brit. I speak English 1.0, and not the new sparkly version that is popular in the US. I tried to run an experiment for my Mum's horse riding holidays company, Far and Ride (hi Mum!), to test whether they could benefit from an improved title or meta-description. I allowed Turk workers from any country so my job would complete faster (all workers speak English).

I setup two variants, with their current title and a second with a simple change just to measure its impact. I cancelled the Turk job after less than five clicks after realising my mistake. See the top five results and some of the clicks already coming in:

The clicks were focused on those results that spoke about 'horseback riding' instead of 'horse riding', which is the difference between what we say in British English and what you call it in US English.

Why is this important? According to a paper last year (here), approximately 32% of Turk workers are in India, and India speaks a version of English that is still closer to British English than US English. 57% of workers are from the US, with the remaining 11% distributed around the world.

Lesson: Be very careful that you consider language and other demographic factors when you run your test. If you are using mTurk you can target specific countries with your test if you wish. I didn't have time to rerun this test in such a way, unfortunately.

How you can use SERP Turkey. Today. Free.

SERP Turkey is completely free to use, and is available to go right now:

SERP Turkey

It is a bit rough and ready and in need of polish, but I threw it together quickly to test out this concept. If it proves popular then I will invest some more time in polishing it and adding more features (more on that below). But for now, here is how to get started...

When you open SERP Turkey you'll see a simple page:

Enter your search term and press the button. You'll immediately see the second screen:

Here is the only 'tricky' part... You have to visit the Google search results page for your keyword (you can click the link if you're lazy and want Google.com, otherwise you'll have to run it yourself in another window), and then paste the source code for the results page into the box so SERP Turkey can extract the results. Once again, press the button and you'll be shown a confirmation screen that everything went ok. One more button click and you'll be taken to the ''Manage Variants" page:

This page is where you can manage the various variants/samples SERP results. It is pretty self-explanatory - you can view the current result, including the five second filtered versions (you can change the URL parameter to any filter time you want), you can edit, duplicate and deactivate variants.

Deactivating a variant will mean you can continue to look at the results, but the variant won't be shown to the users. You can reactivate variants again should you wish. Duplicating a variant is important as this allows you to then edit that variant and thus begin A/B testing. You can have as many variants as you wish and users will be shown one at random.

Once you have your variants setup how you wish, go to the Dashboard page (link at the top):

This page has your dashboard URL on it. It is very important you don't lose this as it is the only way you can return to see your results or edit your variants! Don't lose it! Bookmark it!

This page also has the test URL which you can give out to your testers. However, if you intend to push it out to mTurk, then you can use my prepared template, and download the input file on this page (see below).

Using mTurk for your testers

As you've seen from my examples, you can run some tests on Amazon's Mechanical Turk extremely cheaply. Setting up with mTurk is very simple and in less than 10 minutes you can have done everything you need to have your first test ready to go. Unfortunately, Turk is open to US users only (but don't despair, you can access it - see below), but you can use any platform for contacting testers that you want.

If you think you want a walkthrough then I've created a separate post on my personal blog how to setup mTurk for use with SERP Turkey:

Setting up Amazon Mechanical Turk with SERP Turkey

If you're an mTurk veteran then you can just use the mTurk HTML template code available here to create your template. You can then download the input file for each of your tests directly from SERP Turkey's dashboard page. This will fill in the search term and provide the link to your test's page.

mTurk users have be asked a question on the platform, so they are given a code after they've clicked. The code seems random, but it actually does encode whether the user timed out or otherwise was not counted towards your CTR scores (they just get a 'user counted' or 'user not counted' token that is unique to each test - see my linked post above for more details).

Alternative to mTurk - Smartsheet.com

mTurk is annoyingly US only, however the Smartsheet Crowdsourcing service actually leverages Amazon's Mechanical Turk, but you don't need to be in the US to use it. You do have to pay a $30 monthly subscription but then you can leverage Turk. You can read my Amazon Turk blog post and adapt. If someone wants to write a Smartsheet SERP Turkey post I'll happily add a link in here and on the SERP Turkey site!

Notes and Future

SERP Turkey 1.0 is a bit rough and ready. If it proves useful to people and there is demand then I have a few ideas I'm considering:

Option to download the click record.
Second click testing so you can see users that hit back and clicked again.
Ads testing.
Save your email to a test.
Rich snippets and verticals (news/image) testing.
Batch tests - so you can push multiple tests at a time to a user along with 'sanity check' test to start so you can decide whether a worker is paying enough attention.
Build in Amazon Turk
3 click tests where users have to select 3 results in order.
Break clicks down by geo-locating users.
Click'n'drag reordering of entries.

Please hit me up by email at turkey@tomanthony.co.uk or via twitter at @TomAnthonySEO if you have a suggestion or feedback.

Wrap up

The tests I've run have been more to illustrate the tool than to gather meaningful data, but I think SERP Turkey provides a cheap way to run some real tests and gather meaningful, and most importantly, actionable data. I'm aware it's not perfect, but for the speed and price you can run tests I hope some of you will find it useful. :)

Now, go and give it a try.

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Historic Day for Veterans

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, Nov.21, 2011

Historic Day for Veterans

This morning, President Obama will sign into law the “VOW to Hire Heroes Act”. This bill provides practical support to transition our vets from combat to careers, by offering employees tax credits for hiring veterans.

This bill will help veterans like Jason, an Army officer in Iraq who managed hundreds of reconstruction projects (worth millions of dollars) for the military but could not find a job once he returned.

Read his story and find out why these credits are so important to veterans.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama greets Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India at the start of their bilateral meeting at the ASEAN Summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Nov. 18, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Seth's Blog : Your competitive advantage

Your competitive advantage

Are you going to succeed because you return emails a few minutes faster, tweet a bit more often and stay at work an hour longer than anyone else?

I think that's unlikely. When you push to turn intellectual work into factory work (which means more showing up and more following instructions) you're racing to the bottom.

It seems to me that you will succeed because you confronted and overcame anxiety and the lizard brain better than anyone else. Perhaps because you overcame inertia and actually got significantly better at your craft, even when it was uncomfortable because you were risking failure. When you increase your discernment, maximize your awareness of the available options and then go ahead and ship work that scares others... that's when you succeed.

More time on the problem isn't the way. More guts is. When you expose yourself to the opportunities that scare you, you create something scarce, something others won't do.

• Email to a friend •

duminică, 20 noiembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

European ERM 1992 Replay: Same Problems, Same Issues, Same Countries, Only the Politicians Differ; Irony of the Maastricht Treaty
Will Cameron Sell UK Down the River for Worthless Promises? German Finance Minister Says UK will Join the Euro, Financial Transaction Tax Needed; Two-Speed Europe and the Clutches of France
House Won't Sell? No Problem, Simply Raise the Price by 78%; It's Different in Bizarro World
China's Vice Premier Sees "Chronic Global Recession"; Why this Astonishing Admission?

European ERM 1992 Replay: Same Problems, Same Issues, Same Countries, Only the Politicians Differ; Irony of the Maastricht Treaty

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 08:50 PM PST

Tonight I received a thoughtful email from reader Rick Cameron who made some observations and notes way back in 1992 and recently went back to review those notes.

His notes are regarding the European ERM, the Exchange Rate Mechanism, that was supposed to reduce exchange rate variability and achieve monetary stability in Europe.

Before I list the thoughts of Cameron, here is some background information on the ERM and the countries involves:

The UK entered the ERM in 1990 but in 1992 Britain exited the ERM after the pound sterling came under pressure from George Soros, dubbing Soros as "the man who broke the Bank of England".

In 1993 the currency band had to be expanded 15% to accommodate speculation against the French franc and other currencies.

Wikepedia notes the ERM came to be known as an "Eternal Recession Mechanism" after Britain fell into recession during the early 1990s.

European ERM 1992 Replay

With that backdrop, please consider this Email from Cameron.

Hello Mish

I am a student of history, and I was an active investor in 1992. I have recently gone back and looked at my notes and the charts and the media comments about the UK and the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

The parallels between the UK in 1992 and Germany in 2011 are striking.

Under the ERM, the (financially) stronger countries would be responsible for the weaker ones. Then the Berlin wall fell, the Eastern European countries tanked, and the UK was on the hook to support them.

There was lots of pressure on John Majors not to continue that policy and to leave the ERM. Political dithering followed, complete with bold speeches by both Brits and the Europeans about unity. The Brits held their ground in the face of enormous pressure on the pound, culminating with a $28B currency buyback in mid-September.

Students of history know what happened next: The Brits finally threw in the towel, left the ERM, and the pound tanked from $1.95 to 1.70 from September 19th to September 26th, then to $1.50 by November. George Soros made $2 billion.

Every article I read today about the ECB, the Germans, and the euro, resembles closely some similar article I have about the Bank of England, the British government, the ERM, and the eventual fall of the pound.

To me, it seems like an inevitable march down the same road - same players, same dithering, same posturing, same lack of attention to any of the real problems, same case of refusing to deal with any of the real issues - and sadly, the issues in 1992 were EXACTLY THE SAME as they are today.

Are the financially strong Northern European countries going to support the weaker Eastern and Southern European countries? Everyone in Europe loves the idea - until they have to write checks with their own money. Then it all come unglued, every time.

Finally, we need to not forget that the guy who stubbornly held onto the concept of the Brits supporting the ERM, no matter the cost and pain to the British taxpayers was none other than John Majors, who at the time was working on the Maastricht Treaty.

To quote Peter, Paul, and Mary "when will they ever learn?"

Have a good day

Rick Cameron

Same Issues, Same Players

Yes indeed. We have exactly the same issues and same players. Note that the UK is still on the outside looking in, with the rest of Europe clamoring to get the UK in.

The smart play would be for Cameron to stay on the outside, looking out as noted in Will Cameron Sell UK Down the River for Worthless Promises? Two-Speed Europe and the Clutches of France

Since 1992, there has been an obvious change in political leadership. However, the politicians involved all still seek the same proverbial free lunch.

Irony of the Maastricht Treaty

The irony of the Maastricht Treaty is that it did temporarily bring about the currency stability everyone wanted. However, that currency stability came at the expense of something far worse - inherent interest rate instability (coupled with heightened fiscal instability).

It just took some time to play out.

Now, instead of attempting to defend untenable currency targets, the ECB, the Eurocrats, and the IMF all have their hands full attempting to maintain untenable interest rate targets. With yields soaring in Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Belgium in relation to Germany, the Troika has failed.

To alleviate interest rate concerns and fiscal instability caused by the Maastricht Treaty, politicians now openly discuss breaking up the Eurozone, which of course will immediately kick off a full-blown currency crisis in various countries.

Interest Rates on Government Bonds Go Full Circle

click on chart for sharper image

Chart from Spiegel Online

When the currency crisis happens and the Eurozone breaks up as is inevitable, Europe will have gone full circle on both interest rates and currencies, with politicians chasing their tail every step of the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Will Cameron Sell UK Down the River for Worthless Promises? German Finance Minister Says UK will Join the Euro, Financial Transaction Tax Needed; Two-Speed Europe and the Clutches of France

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 10:25 AM PST

The UK had been expected to have a voter referendum on proposed EU treaty changes. The EU of course does not want voter referendums or anything that look remotely democratic as we have seen by actions in Greece and Italy.

Deal or No Deal?

The problem for the EU is all 27 nations have to agree to treaty changes or it's no deal. A political work-around is in progress (as always). And Merkel will allegedly give up on the Financial Transaction Tax idea if only Cameron will sign on the bottom line.

Piss Poor Deal

It's a piss poor deal and Cameron should know it. Once the EU gets what they want, Sarkozy and Merkel and others will be back at it, demanding once again the financial transaction tax and God only knows what else.

Secret Plans to Derail Referendum

The Telegraph notes Germany's secret plans to derail a British referendum on the EU

Germany has drawn up secret plans to prevent a British referendum on the overhaul of the European Union amid concerns it could derail the eurozone rescue package, leaked documents obtained by The Daily Telegraph disclose.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is today expected to tell David Cameron that Britain does not need a referendum on EU treaty changes, despite demands from senior Conservatives for more powers to be repatriated to Britain.

The leaked memo, written by the German foreign office, discloses radical plans for an intrusive new European body that will be able to take over the economies of beleaguered eurozone countries.

It discloses that the EU's largest economy is also preparing for other European countries, which are too large to be bailed out, to default on their debts — effectively going bankrupt. It will prompt fears that German plans to deal with the eurozone crisis involve an erosion of national sovereignty that could pave the way for a European "super state" with its own tax and spending plans set in Brussels.

Britain would be relegated to a new outer group of EU members who are not in the single currency. Mr Cameron will today travel to Brussels and Berlin for tense negotiations with Mrs Merkel amid growing disagreement between the leaders over how to deal with the eurozone.

The six-page German foreign ministry paper sets out plans for the creation of a European Monetary Fund with a transfer of sovereignty away from member states.

The fund will have the power to take ailing countries into receivership and run their economies. Even more controversially, the document, entitled The future of the EU: required integration policy improvements for the creation of a Stability Union, declares that the treaty changes are a first stage "in which the EU will develop into a political union". "The debate on the way towards a political union must begin as soon as the course toward stability union is charted," it concludes.

The negotiating document also explicitly examines ways to limit treaty changes to speed up the reforms. It indicates that Mrs Merkel will tell Mr Cameron to rule out a popular EU vote in Britain.

"Limiting the effect of the treaty changes to the eurozone states would make ratification easier, which would nevertheless be required by all EU member states (thereby less referenda could be necessary, which could also affect the UK)," read the paper.

Open Europe, a think tank, last night called for Mr Cameron to demand something in return from Mrs Merkel for her "far-reaching plan", which requires the unanimous consent of all 27 EU countries, giving Britain a veto.

"It would be the first step towards a vision of 'political union' that would have major consequences for the future of the entire EU, and therefore the UK's place within it," said Stephen Booth, the think tank's research director.

"Merkel is daring Cameron to call her bluff, but if the UK is serious about taking a leadership role in shaping the EU, Cameron will have to take a stand sooner rather than later."

Bill Cash, chairman of the Commons European scrutiny committee, accused the Coalition of standing by in "no–man's land" while Germany shaped the EU to suit its own interests.

"We are going to get nothing significant in return for agreeing to this," he said.

Mr Cameron is today also expected to pressurise Mrs Merkel into lifting German opposition to the use of the European Central Bank to rescue the euro.

Two-Speed Europe and the Clutches of France

The Guardian reports Cameron warned his eurozone stance risks forcing two-speed Europe

David Cameron will be warned that he risks creating an unstoppable momentum behind a "two-speed Europe", which would be dominated by France and Germany, if Britain demands too many concessions during the eurozone crisis.

In a series of meetings in Berlin and Brussels, the prime minister will be advised that Britain should table modest proposals next year when EU leaders embark on a small treaty revision to underpin the euro.

A six-page German foreign ministry paper, published by Der Spiegel this week, calls for "a ('small') convention that is precisely limited in terms of content" to present proposals "rapidly". These would then be agreed by all 27 members of the EU.

Merkel warned the prime minister at an emergency European council meeting in Brussels on 23 October that she would reluctantly have to side with France if Britain overplayed its hand in the negotiations. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, wants a treaty to be agreed among the 17 members of the eurozone, excluding Britain and the other nine EU members outside the single currency.

This would be seen as a major step towards the formalisation of a "two-speed Europe" in which France, Germany and the four other triple A-rated eurozone members would form an inner core. Britain and Denmark, the only two members of the EU with a legal opt-out from the euro, would form the backbone of an outer core.

One Brussels diplomat said: "There is a choice the UK has to make. Does it push Germany into the clutches of France or does it try to find an accommodation with the Germans by not going too far in its demands on repatriating powers? The Germans want to find an accommodation with the British but they must not go too far."

Got that? Cameron is supposed to accept a bad deal from Merkel, or Germany will make an even worse deal with France.

German Finance Minister Says UK will Join the Euro

Talk like this should scare the hell out of the UK citizens: Britain will have to join the euro, says Tory grandee Lord Heseltine

Britain will soon have no choice but to join the euro, Tory grandee Lord Heseltine has claimed, as tensions grow over the eurozone's slow-moving efforts to get a grip on the spreading debt crisis.

The former deputy prime minister, a long-time supporter of the single currency, said the public had "no idea" about the potential impact its collapse would have on the UK.

But he believes Franco-German determination will secure the euro's future and pave the way for Britain to sign up.

Both the Coalition and the Labour Party have ruled out adopting the euro in the foreseeable future.

Last month Prime Minister David Cameron suffered the biggest ever Conservative revolt over Europe as more than 80 Conservative MPs defied his orders and backed a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.

German Finance Minister Says UK will Join Euro

Please consider Britain 'will join euro before long', says German finance minister

Wolfgang Schäuble said that, despite the current crisis in the eurozone, the euro will ultimately emerge as the common currency of the entire European Union. He said he "respects" Britain's decision to keep the pound, but insisted that the survival and eventual stabilisation of the euro will convince non-members to join the currency club. "This may happen more quickly than some people in the British Isles currently believe," he added.

Mr Schäuble also said Germany will stand firm on its call for a financial transaction tax that Britain believes would badly harm the City of London.

Sir John Major, the former prime minister, warned last night that the growing integration of the eurozone nations threatens democracy in those countries. He told Al Jazeera television that richer euro members led by Germany and France will "insist on moving towards what we call fiscal union. By that I mean common control over budgets and fiscal deficits".

Sir John, who advises David Cameron on foreign policy issues, also described the banking transaction tax as "a heat-seeking missile proposed in continental Europe, aimed at the City of London".

Promises on Transaction Tax will not be Kept

The arrogant talk by Schäuble in and of itself should be enough to convince Cameron that the financial transaction tax talk will never go away and that no deal with Merkel can be trusted.

Thus, Cameron should not agree to any treaty changes except those for the explicit purpose of creating exit procedure for countries to leave the Euro.

The Eurozone is about to break up yet Merkel, Schäuble, Sarkozy and others still cling to failed ideas. Pressure on the UK is nothing but last minute sheer desperation by those attempting to bully the UK into accepting the creation of a nanny-zone super state.

The irony is both Cameron and Merkel want something that is blatantly stupid. Cameron wants the ECB to buy bonds on a massive scale, while Merkel wants the financial transaction tax and a nanny-zone super state. All three ideas are horrendous.

Should Cameron get sucked into a lousy deal (which means virtually any deal Merkel will offer), all Cameron would accomplish would be to prolong the agony.

Enough is enough, Cameron should tell Merkel "No Deal", which of course is the polite way of saying "Go to Hell".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

House Won't Sell? No Problem, Simply Raise the Price by 78%; It's Different in Bizarro World

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 09:10 AM PST

It's different in Vancouver says a reader in response to Vancouver Real Estate Bubble in Pictures; Presenting the $1,050,000 "Livable" House .

"Fortunate Fool" writes ...

Hello Mish

Vancouver is a different world. To truly appreciate it, let me give you an example. In a normal world, if you had bought a house in April 2004 for $6 million, how much would you put it for sale today? Hard to say right? Let say your house value increased with an inflation at 2% per year, that would be roughly $6.9 million. In the current economic situation, you would be happy to get that money back.

In Vancouver, it's different. If you bought at that price in 2004, you would put it back on the market in 2010 for... $17.9 million! A compounded return of 20% a year. But there is a problem, it turns out that you couldn't sell the property. So in that case, what would you do? You would decrease the price, right?

Wrong! Remember, you are in Vancouver, and it's different there. No, you would put the property back on the market for... $31.9 million! (a 78% increase from last year's price or an expected annual compounded rate of return of 27%).

Repeat after me. No, Vancouver is not in a bubble.

Fortunate Fool backs up his claim with this article from the Vancouver Sun: Vancouver mansion for sale: $31.9 million

A house has just gone on the market at 3390 The Crescent in Shaughnessy for $31.9 million. That may sound like a lot of money, but it isn't the highest listing price in Metro Vancouver — a house at 2190 Camelot in West Vancouver is for sale at $39.9 million. And has been, for several months.

High-end homes like this often take a while to sell, because once you get into the tens of millions, there aren't many buyers. In fact, the $31.9-million Shaughnessy home was for sale last year for $17.9 million, but didn't sell.

Property records list the owners as K. Fan Hiu and H.F. Chi, who purchased the home in April 2004 for $6 million. Ted Wang of Royal Pacific Realty said the couple have decided to downsize to an apartment.

Wang said the owners decided to raise the listing price after looking at the high prices mansions are commanding in Shaughnessy. He noted that a house he sold last year on Angus Drive for $5.7 million was recently assessed at $9 million.

It's Different in Bizarro World

The owners upped their price from $17.9 million (offered just last year) to $31.9 million, an increase of 78%, because they want to "downsize to an apartment".

This of course makes perfect sense because "It's different in Bizarro World" just as it is in Vancouver.

Inquiring minds may be interested in the "Complete History of Bizarro World" from Superman to Seinfeld to Saturday Night Live.

We can safely add Vancouver to the list.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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China's Vice Premier Sees "Chronic Global Recession"; Why this Astonishing Admission?

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 12:11 AM PST

It's not often we hear candid talk from global leaders about the economic realities that lay ahead. This is one of those rare times.

Please consider China vice premier sees chronic global recession

A long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has said.

"The one thing that we can be certain of, among all the uncertainties, is that the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis will be chronic," Wang was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying at the weekend.

Wang's comments were the most bearish forecast ever by a top Chinese decision-maker about the world economy, and Beijing's worry about a worsening global environment could translate into an impetus for pro-growth policies at home.

Why this Astonishing Admission?

Regular Mish readers will not find that forecast surprising in the least. What is surprising is the high-ranking official who makes that forecast.

In a world of global economic denial about the Euro, about deficits in the US, about housing bubbles in Australia, China, and Canada, and in general denial about every economic woe the world faces, one might ask "why this astonishing admission?"

I have a 3-part answer

As China shifts from an untenable infrastructure model to a consumption model, as Europe faces a Eurozone breakup and harsh recession, as the US faces a deficit crisis (albeit halfheartedly at best), much global pain is in order.
By framing the problem as a global problem, the vice-premier gets to blame the world economy for the internal strife in China.
This is an indication that China is falling apart right here, right now, much faster than the Western world believes.

The admission by the vice-premier simply reflects the demise of China's export model in the face of a rapidly slowing global economy accompanied by a regime change in China that will be forced to shift its internal priorities.

These thoughts echo comments I have made previously in ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Seth's Blog : Moving beyond impressions

Moving beyond impressions

Internet advertising is so cheap (particularly Facebook and run of site network buys) that just about anyone can afford a million impressions, and a billion isn't out of reach.

Pretty soon it turns into noise. An infinite number of impressions is dangerously close to no impressions at all.

The conversation media reps have with advertisers quickly devolves into, "how cheap can I buy a million impressions?" What a waste. That number, out of context, is nothing but a crutch, a poor stand in for the insightful analysis that media buyers ought to be using.

Far better to focus on two things, both leading to the real goal:

Perception. Does the ad you're running increase the value of your name? Are you perceived as an annoyance, an interruptor--or are you a valued sponsor, a trusted friend, someone who is making things better?

and

Interaction. Not merely a click that leads to a sale. I'm talking about any sort of interaction with you or your organization, whether it's an online chat, a phone call or navigating your site. Too often, online marketers are focused on pennies per click instead of long-term value per engagement.

Both perception and interaction lead to permission. Permission to deliver anticipated, personal and relevant messages over time. Permission to tell a story. Permission to earn attention on an ongoing basis.

Impressions don't automatically get you permission. In fact, they might cost it.

[I'm amused to sometimes hear people refer to my concept of "Permission Marketing" as "Permissive Marketing." Pretty Freudian.]

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sâmbătă, 19 noiembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Vancouver Real Estate Bubble in Pictures; Presenting the $1,050,000 "Livable" House
Greek "Unity Government" Effectively Collapsed Already; Showdown Underway; New Democracy Party Wants Rollbacks on Austerity Measures
Interview with Kyle Bass on Gold, Hugely Profitable Asymmetric Bets on US Subprime and Europe, and his next Asymmetric Bet on Japan

Vancouver Real Estate Bubble in Pictures; Presenting the $1,050,000 "Livable" House

Posted: 19 Nov 2011 05:34 PM PST

Housing bubble denial in Canada keeps getting louder and louder, as prices become more and more absurd.

Terry from Canada writes

Hi Mish,

I am beginning to believe that Canada's housing bubble is making the US housing bubble look bush league in comparison. The worst part is Canadians are so delusional they still believe that "It is different here". 50,000 dollars can now buy you a pretty decent house in some parts of the US, do you want to see what $1,050,000 buys you in Vancouver? A house that is described as "livable".

Wow, million dollar mortgages which are fully insured by the tax payers of Canada are being handed out to 20 year-olds like they are candy and meanwhile our government still declares, just as the US government did before it's house crash, that there is no housing bubble and that prices will remain stable and "affordable". And the rest of the world still looks on and considers Canada to be a fiscally responsible, financially prudent country. Just another of many myths that get started and than repeated ad nauseam by the press without understanding the whole story.

$1,050,000 "Livable" House

Inquiring minds my be interested to see what $1,050,000 will buy in Vancouver.

Note the alleged 6 bedrooms (3 converted from the basement) but only 2 bathrooms. Who are they kidding? Is this the happy hooker flop house?

Unfortunately, pictures like these are easy to find.

The longer this continues the bigger the crash. Look for prices on such properties to crash 75% or more. When it does, it will be no bargain.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek "Unity Government" Effectively Collapsed Already; Showdown Underway; New Democracy Party Wants Rollbacks on Austerity Measures

Posted: 19 Nov 2011 10:15 AM PST

The very instant the Greek "Unity Government" formed it was divided. Antonis Samaras, the leader of Greece's New Democracy Party, one of the three coalition parties that formed the government says he will not sign a document demanded by the IMF before it will release the next tranche.

That's not all, Samaras actually wants to rework the agreement. Neither will fly (at least with Greece receiving the next tranche of money), and tensions fester.

Bloomberg reports Samaras Won't Sign Pledge Committing to EU's Greek Debt Accord

Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece's New Democracy Party, won't sign a document pledging his commitment to the Oct. 26 European Union agreement for the nation, the Athens News Agency reported.

Samaras, whose party is a member of the country's unity government, told officials from the so-called troika of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank that he has already taken five actions that show his party's full commitment to the agreement, the state-run news agency said.

Is this posturing? If so, what is the gain? I think he will sign, or the New Democracy Party will take the blame for the collapse. The situation is even messier than a signing agreement.

Samaras Wants Rollbacks of Austerity Measures He Disagrees With

Athens News comments Troika back in town

The interim government took a first step on Friday towards meeting terms of an international bailout needed to avoid bankruptcy, submitting a budget bill that foresees no new austerity measures next year as long as reforms are enacted.

But more importantly, however, was the rift between parties in technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos's unity coalition caused by jockeying for position by the New Democracy party ahead of an election slated for February 19.

Papademos must win pledges from the rival parties that they will do what it takes to meet bailout terms or Greece's lenders will withhold an 8bl euro aid tranche Athens needs to dodge default next month, plus longer-term financing later.

Samaras said on Thursday said he wanted to win an outright majority in the snap election to reverse the austerity measures he disagrees with. Although publicly committed to coalition, he has distanced himself while still being seen to be taking part for the sake of keeping Greece's creditors on side.

On Friday his party repeated an oft-made call to scrap the austerity measures prescribed under the bailout, known as the "Memorandum" in Greece, in favour of pro-growth policies.

"The Memorandum needs to be renegotiated. A recipe that doesn't work needs to be changed," it said in a statement.

These coalition "unity" governments in both Greece and Italy are struggling already, and over things that would seem to be a given like signing a document that appears to be a formality to what has been agreed upon.

Is signing a document such a big deal? It might be if the intent is to roll back the agreement.

The Greek "Unity" government has effectively collapsed already.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Interview with Kyle Bass on Gold, Hugely Profitable Asymmetric Bets on US Subprime and Europe, and his next Asymmetric Bet on Japan

Posted: 18 Nov 2011 11:55 PM PST

The BBC has an excellent interview with Kyle Bass - Founder, Hayman Capital Hedge Fund on Europe, mortgages, monetary printing, "gold and guns" and Japan.

At times the interviewer is openly hostile to Bass, blaming him for making money on the US mortgage mess, then again when Greece blew up.

Bass defends himself quite nicely.

His latest play is an asymmetric bet on Japan, based on demographics, interest rates, and ability to service debt. I happen to agree with Bass, that it is just a matter of time before the Yen blows up. I must also point out people have been predicting this for a decade.

Bass finishes on a strong note "Buying gold is just buying a put on the idiocy of the political cycle. ... Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without Hell. You have to have atonement for ridiculous levels of spending both the US and Europe have gone through. The spending idiocy of the world is going to catch up to itself. And that's where we are today."

It's an excellent but lengthy interview (about 23 minutes), well worth a play.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

luni, 21 noiembrie 2011