sâmbătă, 17 decembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Update on Sweden (from Sweden); Another Look at the UK "In Isolation"

Posted: 17 Dec 2011 05:44 PM PST

Following the Merkozy summit, much was written regarding the UK "Standing Alone". While it's true that Sweden, Hungary, and the Czech Republic did not say "No" to the Merkozy agreement, the fact remains they did not say yes.

Moreover, it's just a matter of time Sweden does say "No", according to reader Kenneth from Sweden who offers this interesting political opinion.

Kenneth writes ....
In spite of what was reported immediately following the Merkozy proposal announcement, the Swedish position has not changed.

Rather, Swedish political parties are taking time to think about how they will react. They have even yet not got the detailed draft from the EU (should come within a week).

The greatest opposition party, the socialdemokrats have said NO from the start, and so have the other smaller opposition parties also said. And with the government in minority, the case should be closed. Sweden underwrites the treaty that it is OK for the EURO countries, but NOT valid for Sweden. So Sweden stays outside the treaty in practical manner.

Of course no one knows what happens in politics till March. But the socialdemokrats have stated categorically NO, and without socialdemokrats on the bandwagon Sweden will stay outside.

The socialdemokrats opinion is that it would be a way to take us back doors in to the EURO area, and the Swedish people has voted NO to the EURO in referendum 2003.

Besides that UK is not alone, Hungary has already stated that they will not participate, and the Czech Republic has said that they will take time to take a decision. So there are now four countries that eventually will not go along with the treaty. And then you have Finland which IS a Euro country.

Kenneth
In a second follow-up email Kenneth noted "Recent polls show that at least 80% of the Swedish people should vote NO to the EURO today. So the socialdemokrats can win votes with their categorical NO to the treaty."

As I have said, support for this treaty is rapidly disintegrating in numerous ways and in numerous places.

For details, please see ...


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

European Disunion Blog Makes Solid Case for Ron Paul

Posted: 17 Dec 2011 08:08 AM PST

Support for Ron Paul turns up in interesting places, such as the UK-based European Disunion Blog.
Don't want endless foreign wars, but do want a strong military for defense? Vote Ron Paul. Do want bankers to be subjected to greater scrutiny and accountability? Vote Ron Paul. Don't want the government to tow the line of corporate interests? Vote Ron Paul. Do want to be allowed to say and think what you will - even do what you will - provided that it does not harm or infringe upon the rights of others? Vote Ron Paul.

Ron Paul is the only candidate who does not accept donations from big business - his campaign is funded entirely by individuals. Yet it forms policy from a conservative outlook: pragmatic, rather than idealistic, with any reforms carefully considered before implementation, with a strict doctrine of fiscal prudence to boot. In short, it is the perfect blend for individualistic yet reasoned and cash-strapped America.
That is a rock-solid case in two short paragraphs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Home Prices in Spain Drop 14 Consecutive Quarters; Banks Stuck with Major Losses Not Marked to Market; Expect Conditions to Worsen

Posted: 17 Dec 2011 02:12 AM PST

The Spanish banking system is in far worse shape than most realize because of unrealized losses related to Spain's imploded housing bubble. Various austerity measures and tax hikes to bail out French and German banks will greatly exacerbate this problem.

Please consider Spain Banks Face 43% Price Fall on Repossessed Homes
Spanish home prices fell for the 14th consecutive quarter as unemployment surged and a drop in mortgage lending crimped demand for property. The average price of houses and apartments dropped 7.4 percent in three months ended Sept. 30 from the same period a year earlier, according to the National Statistics Institute in Madrid.

Repossessed houses in Spain are worth 43 percent less on average than the valuations assigned on the mortgages for the properties, according to Fitch Ratings.

Price declines range from 20 percent to 58 percent, analysts Juan David Garcia and Carlos Masip in Madrid wrote in a report analyzing 8,235 properties funded by loans from banks including Banco Santander SA (SAN) and Bankia SA. The mortgages are in asset-backed securities with high loan-to-value ratios.
Spanish Unemployment Rate



Spain's Unemployment Rate is 22.8% and rising. 

Austerity measures in Spain will force down home prices, force up the unemployment rate, and force up losses on Spanish banks.

As I have noted before, Spain needs to restructure work rules, make it easier to fire people (which will eventually make it easier to hire people), get rid of government workers, lower taxes, and implement various reforms.

Unfortunately, the Merkozy agreement demands many counterproductive austerity measures and tax hikes that will crucify Spain in the short-term. Banking losses will soar, GDP will plunge, and deficits will rise.

The same setup applies to Portugal and Greece. Thus, the idea there will be no more sovereign debt losses will soon be smashed on the hard rocks of reality.

 Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:41 0 comentarii

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Laughter Infectiously Spreads in Berlin Train Video Goes Viral

Posted: 16 Dec 2011 07:33 PM PST



They say laughter is contagious, and one can really see the truth in that on this U-Bahn train in Berlin. Two women start laughing at something on their phones and soon the entire car is rolling over in giggles. The video is featured on Telegraph at the time of writing over a million people have watched this video.
Publicat de 1 la 19:24 0 comentarii

Watch Live at 12:30 PM EST: President Obama Delivers a Statement

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, December 17, 2011
 

Watch Live at 12:30 PM EST: President Obama Delivers a Statement

President Obama will deliver a statement today at 12:30 p.m. EST. Watch live on WhiteHouse.gov/Live.

Weekly Address: Honoring Those Who Served in Iraq

President Obama expresses gratitude for the historic achievements of the brave men and women who have served in the war in Iraq -- and welcomes our troops home as we mark the official end to the war.

Watch the video:

Weekly Address

 

Weekly Wrap Up

Fort Bragg After nearly nine years of sacrifice, the Iraq war has come to an end. The President and First Lady traveled to Fort Bragg in North Carolina on Wednesday to welcome home the troops and thank both them and their families for their enormous sacrifices and achievements. “For all the disagreements that we face, you remind us that there is something bigger than our differences. Something that makes us one nation. And one people…I could not be prouder of you. America could not be prouder of you.” To see more milestones from the Iraq War, from President Obama’s very first day in office through the work his Administration has done to support our heroes as they return home, check out our new timeline.

Iraq Visit On Monday, the President welcomed Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The two leaders held talks on the removal of U.S. military forces from Iraq and on efforts to start a new chapter IN partnership between the two nations. “This is a season of homecomings. Military families across America families are being reunited for the holidays. In the coming days, the last American soldiers will cross the border out of Iraq—with honor and with their heads held high.”

Fair Labor As a part of the ‘We Can’t Wait’ campaign, the President announced his support to extend overtime pay protections and a guaranteed minimum wage for home healthcare workers.  This effort will raise wages for people like Pauline Beck, a homecare worker who inspired then Senator Obama in 2007. Currently, many in-home care providers earn less than the minimum wage and no overtime for their vital services to assist those who need it most.  “We are going to make sure that over a million men and women in one of the fastest-growing professions in the country don’t slip through the cracks. We’re going to make sure that companies who do right by their workers aren’t undercut by companies who don’t. We’re going to do what’s fair, and we’re going to do what’s right.”

Still Ticking Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese explains in a White Board discussion how President Obama’s payroll tax cut helps families, business, and the economy – and why it’s so important for Congress to act and extend the tax cut for 2012.

West Wing Week: Check out your video guide to everything that happened at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. This week we're featuring special clips from the President's Asia Pacific trip.

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Publicat de 1 la 08:39 0 comentarii

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

Conversion Conference London: 65 More Takeaways

Posted: 16 Dec 2011 06:19 AM PST

Read the First 58 Takeaways from Conversion Conference London? Here are the next 65, from the afternoon of the first day.

Confessions of a Conversion Rate Optimiser

The afternoon kicked off with a keynote by Bryan Eisenberg, who has been in the conversion optimisation business since 1998.

  1. Conversion rates have increased little over the past decade. Every site has a conversion problem.
  2. Companies typically spend $92 to generate traffic to every $1 to convert people once they get onto the site.
  3. Advertising is seen as sexy, while CRO is hard.
  4. Bryan showed a clip of Sell or Else, in which David Ogilvy tells direct response advertisers that they know the effectiveness of their adverts 'to the dollar', while general advertisers do not, and implores the direct response advertisers to tell them what they have learnt to 'rescue the advertising business from its manifold lunacies'.
  5. Conversion is a journey or process, not an event.
  6. Persuasion Architecture – get personas, plan their journeys, implement and test the results – this takes ages, and so is not popular.
  7. The job of an analyst is to give a to-do list.
  8. There are three CRO elements:
    • Tools
    • People
    • Process
  9. Four variables correlated with improved conversion rates:
    • Perceived control
    • Structured approach
    • Someone is responsible
    • Staff are incentivised
  10. Don't do slice and dice optimisation. Test changes to things that are important, like headings.
  11. Cutting a form by 25% always has an impact.
  12. Have a clear hypothesis with a clear KPI when you test.
  13. Testing needs to be fast.
  14. Useful tools:
  15. Putting badges on products can increase conversion rates by up to 50%.
  16. The Conversion Trilogy is made of Relevance, Value and Call to Action.
  17. You can only eat an elephant one bite at a time – and you can only optimise a website one bite at a time. Do quick, dirty tests fast – remember this is for revenue rather than science.

E-Commerce Best Practices

The first speaker was Paul Rouke from PRWD, who went through many examples of retail sites. You can find his slides here, and his immense collection of usability resources here.

  1. The key conversion principles are:
    • Transparency
    • Build trust and confidence
    • Remove usability barriers
  2. Have a bar of USPs across the top of the page.
    • They don't have to be links, but they must be prominent.
    • Examples: John Lewis, ASOS and Boots.
  3. On product pages, encourage people to add to shopping basket.
    • Put the info people will want. Don't hide it.
    • Example: ASOS has delivery and returns information on the product page, very visibly.
  4. Understand what users are looking for and inform them.
  5. Have social proof – this is becoming more influential in improving conversions.
    • Have customer ratings and reviews, promoted close to the product's name and price.
  6. Areas with tab navigation are good for product and delivery info – they fit more info into a small space.
  7. On the shopping basket page, encourage people to check out.
  8. Be transparent over delivery cost and options – don't force visitors to check out before giving them that!
  9. Focus visitors' minds on proceeding with a clear Call To Action.
  10. Make payment options prominent.
  11. Say the process is secure:
    • Show security measures and accreditation.
    • Use the word 'securely' on buttons.
  12. Remove barriers for new customers to checkout:
    • Don't force people to register straightaway. Say 'continue' rather than 'register'.
    • Let people register at the end of the process, when you only need to ask for a password.
    • Say why customers should create accounts – benefits to them like order tracking and saving their details.

Next was Stephen Pavlovich from Conversion Factory

  1. Mine your analytics!
  2. Look at your Sales Funnel – where are you losing potential customers?
  3. Top Landing Pages – what percentage of traffic lands on the homepage?
    • Are there any sales messages that are only on the homepage? Not everyone will see them.
  4. Look at Browser Conversion Rates:
    • This shows if there is a problem with your site on a particular browser.
    • Use Browsershots or ClickTale to check for compatibility problems.
    • Note that 'Safari' covers iPhone and iPad users as well as desktops.
  5. Look at Site Search – visits that use site search can convert 7.5 times more than those who don't.
    • See how people search, and check that they see the right results.
  6. Don't guess visitors' objections. Talk to visitors and customers to see what stopped them or nearly stopped them from buying.
    • Example: a high end bathroom site thought that people might be put off from converting because they hadn't seen the product in person, but surveying customers showed that the problem was lack of delivery information.
    • See if you can make business decisions based on this (like improving delivery).
  7. Use Benefit Bars – put your USPs front and centre
    • Make the USPs believable without having to check the terms and conditions – make them links that open overlays on the page, with basic info and a link to another page for more info, rather than taking you to the other page straightaway.
  8. Show how much the visitor is saving from the RRP in the shopping basket.
  9. Use the principle of scarcity – have messages like "only 3 left in stock!"
    • If you don't have that detailed stock information, you can say "Hurry! Limited quantities!"
  10. Have reviews for your PPC ads – this increases CTR and trust.
    • You just need 30 or more reviews on sites, like dooyoo or Trustpilot.
    • Go for review sites with better conversion processes.
    • If a customer has a Gmail address, send them to Google Places to review you, as no further registration is needed.

Why Won't You Buy? Finding and Eliminating Conversion Blockers

First to speak was Dr Karl Blanks, chairman of Conversion Rate Experts and former rocket scientist. He listed 16 conversion killers:

  1. Not split testing
  2. Meek tweaking
  3. Customer not in shopping mode
    • Someone just browsing may convert later. Capture their details, build up a relationship, and get them to convert when ready
  4. Unclear value proposition – "I don't know what you do"
  5. Lack of trust
  6. Lack of interest
    • The Amazon Marketplace means that people interested in things not sold by Amazon itself get what they want, and they think Amazon has everything and so return later.
  7. Confusion
  8. Usability
    • Use UserTesting.com.
    • Get someone to use the website and watch them.
    • Use Ethnio to recruit testers from actual visitors.
  9. Product specific objections
    • Draw up a shopping list of what prospects ask and check that the site answers them.
  10. Fatal distraction – people may just get distracted from the conversion process
    • Get contact details as soon as possible.
  11. Visitors don't believe your products are good
    • Use social proof like expert reviews, media mentions, celebrity associations and customer testimonials.
  12. Competitor gets sale
    • Use niching. Specialists are assumed to be better than generalists. (This is why there's no general shampoo, only shampoo that claims to be for a particular hair-type.)
  13. Perceived risk – reduce this
  14. Defers decision
    • Create urgency.
    • Example: TicketMaster has a timer for how long you can reserve a ticket for.
  15. Affiliates may have a problem that their visitors have to go on to a rubbish site to actually convert
    • Make sure visitors are persuaded before they leave your site.
    • Track people.
    • Get visitors on an email list.
  16. Bad prior experience
    • Good experience leads to repeat business.

Next to speak was Rob Jackson, founder of Elisa DBI and Conversion Thursday.

  1. CRO is made of persuasion architecture, relevancy and user-centric design.
  2. It's not about having a massive green call to action button – colour doesn't matter.
  3. First conversion blocker: no measurement strategy.
  4. Build a framework of KPIs
    • KPIs should be the metrics that achieve the website's goals (and the website's goals should come from the business's overall objective).
    • Have targets and alerts.
    • Dashboards and relevant reports help persuade business cases.
  5. Second conversion blocker: ignoring mobile internet users
    • A third of UK adults own a smartphone and a half of internet users in the UK use mobile.
  6. To convince your boss – show mobile conversion rate is low compared to the rest of the site's traffic, then calculate potential by using the return on mobile traffic with the rest of the site's conversion rate.
  7. You don't need a full mobile commerce site – try a holding page or contact page.
  8. Third conversion blocker: ignoring high value segments
    • Aggregate of all data is rubbish. There are many different types of user.
    • Analyse KPIs by segment (visitors from social media, people with over three visits, logged in members, etc).
  9. Look for segments that differ greatly from site average.
  10. Target high value segments with relevant content.

That's it for the first day – takeaways from Day 2 are coming soon.

© SEOptimise - Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. Conversion Conference London: 65 More Takeaways

Related posts:

  1. Conversion Conference London: The First 58 Takeaways
  2. What is your favourite UK search conference?
  3. 154 Awesome Pubcon 2011 Takeaways, Tips & Tweets
Publicat de 1 la 05:20 0 comentarii

Seth's Blog : The simple first rule of branding and marketing anything (even yourself)

The simple first rule of branding and marketing anything (even yourself)

Not a secret, often overlooked:

"Keep your promises."

If you say you'll show up every day at 8 am, do so. Every day.

If you say your service is excellent, make it so.

If circumstances or priorities change, well then, invest to change them back. Or tell the truth, and mean it.

If traffic might be bad, plan for it.

Is there actually unusually heavy call volume? Really?

Want a bigger brand? Make bigger promises. And keep them.

 

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Publicat de 1 la 03:29 0 comentarii

vineri, 16 decembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Portuguese Socialists Threaten "Economic Atomic Bomb"; Fitch Sets France Rating Outlook to Negative; Head of French Central Bank Attacks UK and Rating Agencies

Posted: 16 Dec 2011 11:20 AM PST

Splintering and dissent continues in a major way as Christian Noyer, head of the Bank of France, attacks the fiscal rating of the UK following a negative outlook review of France by the rating agencies. In Portugal, socialists talk openly of default as a weapon.

Portuguese Socialists Threaten "Economic Atomic Bomb"

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph writes Talk of 'nuclear default' sums up Left's anger at EU dictates
Tempers are fraying in austerity-racked Portugal. A top socialist politician was taped at a party dinner calling for diplomatic warfare against the EU's northern powers and issuing threats of debt default.

"We have an atomic bomb that we can use in the face of the Germans and the French: this atomic bomb is simply that we won't pay," said Pedro Nuno Santos, vice-president of the Socialist Party in the parliament.

"Debt is our only weapon and we must use it to impose better conditions, because recession itself is what is stopping us complying with the (EU-IMF Troika) accord. We should make the legs of the German bankers tremble," he said.

The comments came as Portugal slides deeper into recession, with the economy expected to contract by 3pc next year. Protesters marched through Lisbon on Thursday denouncing plans by the new conservative government to raise the working week to 42 hours. Wages are being cut 16pc for higher paid, and 8pc for lower paid public workers.

The parliament passed a fresh austerity budget earlier this month under the terms of its €78bn loan package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund.

Mr Nuno Santos said Europe's southern states should join forces to resist the austerity dictates and contractionary policies being imposed by the core powers. "It is incomprehensible that the peripheral countries don't do what the French president and the German Chancellor do. They should unite," he said.
Fitch Sets France Rating Outlook to Negative

Bloomberg reports France's AAA Outlook Cut; Fitch Reviews Others
Fitch Ratings lowered France's rating outlook and put the grades of nations including Spain and Italy on review for a downgrade, citing Europe's failure to find a "comprehensive solution" to the debt crisis.

"Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop," Fitch said in an e-mailed statement. "In Fitch's opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the ECB."

Without a full solution, Fitch said the crisis will persist, "punctuated by episodes of severe financial market volatility that is a particular source of risk to the sovereign governments of those countries with levels of public debt."
Head of French Central Bank Attacks UK and Rating Agencies

In response to various outlook downgrades of France, Christian Noyer, head of the French central bank attacked the rating agencies and amusingly the UK.

When is the last time a major central bank head attacked  the debt rating of another country? I cannot recall such a time but it has happened now.

Please consider UK 'should be downgraded' before France, says ECB's Christian Noyer
Britain should have its AAA credit rating before France, according to Christian Noyer, head of the French central bank, as the war of words between the two countries heats up following David Cameron's EU treaty veto.

"The downgrade does not appear to me to be justified when considering economic fundamentals," Mr Noyer said in an interview with local newspaper Le Telegramme de Brest.

"Otherwise, they should start by downgrading Britain which has more deficits, as much debt, more inflation, less growth than us and where credit is slumping," he went on.

"Frankly, the agencies have become incomprehensible and irrational. They threaten even when states have taken strong and positive decisions," the central banker said. "One could think that the use of agencies to guide investors is no longer valid."

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said yesterday that decisions by rating agencies were "sometimes subjective and political", and that any loss of France's top-notch AAA rating would be regrettable but not disastrous.
With that attack on the UK it is plain to see the poisonous atmosphere following the do-nothing over-hyped treaty proposal of Merkozy has gotten much worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Italy's "Vote of Confidence" Charade

Posted: 16 Dec 2011 10:23 AM PST

There is nothing like setting up a straw-man that a mouse and two fleas can blow over.

Nonetheless, that is what Italy's technocrat Prime minister has set out to do, as noted by the BBC article Italy's Monti faces confidence vote over austerity

My first thought, based on the headline, before reading the article, was "please, spare me the sap". My tune did not change after reading the article.

The only rational explanation to the Italian "vote of confidence" is that Italy is on such shaky grounds that it desperately needs publicity, hoping to artificially boost confidence in Italian bonds.

I suggest this is a staged event, known in advance to pass with flying colors.

In reality, if there was genuine confidence, there would be no need to hold a "vote of confidence". Thus, these confidence-seeking charades are anything but confidence-building.

History suggests one of these votes will fail sooner or later, or politicians will resign in advance of such a vote. And that is exactly what happened in Greece and Italy this past year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

France in Recession; Italy in Recession; Poles Protest; Credit Agricole Quits Commodity Business; Poetic Irony and Credit Crunch Math

Posted: 16 Dec 2011 12:28 AM PST

The latest Merkozy treaty proposal is far more hype than reality. What little has been agreed to will be taken back as treaty cracks appear everywhere. Worse yet, numerous austerity measures are counterproductive.

Thus, it should not be surprising that headlines regarding the real European economy (as opposed to Eurocratic wishes) are generally horrific. Here are a few stories that caught my attention.

France in Recession

Via Google Translate, La Tribune reports France Enters Recession
INSEE forecasts have rarely been so dark. The institute provides, in its memo on the economy in December, a decline in French GDP for the current quarter (- 0.2%) and below (- 0.1%). In other words, the recession.

For this scenario is not only French but also European. The euro area show indeed a decline in GDP of 0.3% in fourth quarter 2011 and 0.1% in first quarter 2012 (see chart) and will benefit the end of a carry-over for 2012 does not exist (0.1%). The economic downturn is rooted in the turmoil in financial markets this summer, said INSEE. Since June, the risk premium on the interbank market (interbank security required to support each other in three-year horizon) climbs, as well as differences in interest rates of 10-year bonds of major countries in the area are growing (almost 6% in Spain and Italy, 2% for Germany).
The above translation is choppy, but surely you get the drift.

Italy in Recession

Reuters reports Confindustria slashes 2012 Italian growth forecast
The main employers' lobby Confindustria on Thursday slashed its 2012 growth forecast for Italy to -1.6 percent from +0.2 percent, warning that even that estimate was optimistic and based on a gradual easing of the euro zone debt crisis.

Italy is already in recession, began shrinking on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter of this year, and will emerge only in the third quarter of 2013, the employers' federation said. The country will grow slowly in 2013, by 0.6 percent, Confindustria predicted.

Growth forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 are "optimistic" and based on Italian bond yields falling below 5 percent by April, according to the group's latest revision of its forecasts. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds are currently over 7 percent.

Prime Minister Mario Monti's 33-billion-euro austerity package will weigh on growth, but is necessary to prevent the country sliding into a default, Confindustria said.
Thousands of Poles protest against new EU treaty


Inquiring minds note Thousands of Poles protest against new EU treaty
About 5,000 Poles protested in Warsaw against closer European integration after the government agreed to a new EU treaty for closer fiscal cooperation to tackle economic crisis.
The protesters waved Polish flags and at one point chanted "Disgrace!" during the rally organised by the main opposition, the conservative, euro-sceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The peaceful demonstration took place on the 30th anniversary of a crackdown by communist authorities against the pro-democratic opposition lead by the Solidarity trade union, Reuters reports.

As he addressed the crowd, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski drew a parallel between the 1981 Poland's subjugation under the Martial Law to the Soviet Union and the current government's support for deeper EU integration.

"PiS will lead the fight for a truly sovereign Poland where Poles themselves can decide on what is most important for them, can build their prosperity on their own, because we can afford that," he said.

Poland, the largest former communist state in the EU, is still outside the euro zone and has so far avoided the recession engulfing much of the 27-nation bloc.
Credit Agricole Quits Commodity Business

Reuters reports Credit Agricole quits commodity trade as crisis bites
Credit Agricole, the formerly farm-focused bank that had boosted its energy trading in recent years, warned on Wednesday of losses and write-downs as it struggles to cope with the credit crunch. The cuts come just weeks after rival Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) shut down its year-old U.S. gas and power trading desk, and leader BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) consolidated.

The deepening euro zone debt crisis has hit French banks hard as traditional sources of dollar funding have evaporated and as they face pressure to meet tougher capital requirements.

Volatile commodity prices, dimmer growth prospects and tougher regulation are also forcing some firms to question the outlook for the decade-long boom in trading raw materials.

Cargill Inc. CARG.UL, which has voiced a bleaker economic outlook for next year than most of its peers, is cutting 125 jobs worldwide from its energy, transportation and metals operations as part of plans to reduce 2,000 or 1.4 percent of its global workforce over the next six months.

Trade sources said more companies may follow.

"What is happening with Credit Agricole is certainly a major trend across banking where the entire commodities trading business is shrinking," said a senior commodities trader who recently left a major bank for an independent trading house.
Mainstream Media Admits Obvious

Mainstream media, corporations, and analysts have finally admitted what I have been saying for two months: Europe is in recession.

Poetic Irony

The story of Credit Agricole is symbolic of the banking sector everywhere. Banks are shedding assets, not because they want to, but rather because they have to. The reason they have to is they are over-leveraged or need to raise capital for numerous reasons including new Basel requirements.

The unfortunate irony is banks may be shedding profitable organizations simply because there is still a bid for the assets.

Credit Crunch Math

In a credit crunch, banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, and other organizations sell what that can, not what they want to.

In essence, distressed sellers weaken themselves by shedding profit centers to retain assets for which there is no bid. Then again, there is no legitimate need for banks to be undertaking some of those operations in the first place.

Various ironies and poetic justice abound.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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