vineri, 23 decembrie 2011

8 Things You Can Give Away to Earn Links + Mentions - Whiteboard Friday

8 Things You Can Give Away to Earn Links + Mentions - Whiteboard Friday


8 Things You Can Give Away to Earn Links + Mentions - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:54 PM PST

Posted by Kenny Martin

Happy Holidays Everyone! It's that time of year again and Rand gets into the giving spirit with this year's special edition of Whitebeard Friday. Presented here are 8 generous tips that will encourage you to get into the holiday spirit of giving yourself. Please enjoy and don't forget to leave your comments below!



Video Transcription

Ho, ho, ho. Welcome to this year's special edition of Whitebeard Friday. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukah. Happy Holidays, whatever you celebrate. Festivus (the "Airing of Grievances"). Whatever you are celebrating this holiday season, I hope you're having a wonderful one. Welcome to the special edition of Whitebeard Friday. Every year I put on this ridiculous getup, and hopefully none of you who celebrate Christmas mind Jewish people like me wearing Santa Claus outfits. I apologize if I've offended anyone. But I have, you can see, drawn a Christmas tree with a Fesitvus pole in the middle and a Star of David. Huh, huh? A little cross-cultural segment there.

All right. This week on Whitebeard Friday I am talking about, I was originally talking about 12, to emulate the 12 days of Christmas, but it wouldn't fit on the whiteboard. So we're doing eight, eight things you can do, you can give away, to earn links and mentions to help your marketing efforts. Obviously, Christmas, the season of giving away. Even when I was a kid, my parents celebrated Christmas. My parents with my whitebeard. I was very, very young. This was like the 17th century. We want to talk today about some of those great methods of things you can give away as part of the holiday season, the giving season, and earn back great things for your marketing.

So, number one, your writing. This is a pretty obvious one, right? When you guest post for someone, when you guest comment, when you leave your written work or allow others to publish it, that earns you links back, links and references back. And I have a pro tip for each of these. So the pro tip here, make a search like this - you see this tiny writing here - "guest author," guest plus author or write or blogger or contributor, if you use that plus the word "blog" or the word "news" or your keywords, you will find posts that contain this stuff. Another pro tip, use Google blog search and Google discussion search. Both of those are great at providing this kind of stuff.

Number two, your videos. See, we're doing a video right now. Do you feel this wonderful video content? The pro tip here is use Wistia. I believe both Wistia and - people are walking by in the SEOmoz offices and think this looks hilarious - use Wistia or I believe Vimeo Pro also does this. When you put your videos up, if you'll notice the embed link for this video in particular, which I think maybe it's in the right-hand corner, that corner, that corner, one of the corners, the embed point will actually point back to your site, which is phenomenally great because it means when other people embed the video, you control the anchor text and the link of where it points back to.

Number three, your product. Whatever it is that you sell, whatever it is that you make, whatever it is that you do, you could have a service, giving that away often earns you links and references in return. Pro tip, be careful of those direct giveaways. If you say, "Hey, here's the product, I want a link back," that can get you into trouble. But if you instead use events, or charity, or sponsorship, or you give it away without a request and ask and people cover it, that's an organic and natural link, an editorial link. That can work for you.

Number four, very similar, your time. Donate and dedicate your time, like me, Father Christmas by helping people out, donating what it is that you do best. If you are a marketer, that could be helping other people with your marketing. If you are a consultant, it could be doing consulting work. If you are helping people in business or you are an expert in a particular realm or product, helping those people do those things, accomplish those things. Finding people who you know have needs in that area and giving it away can help you earn good will, and then that brings links back to your site and references back to your site. A wonderful way to give and receive.

Number five, this is something I hate when marketers don't do this. Give away your contact details. What I mean here is when you are participating out on the Web and you are hoping to earn links and references back, make your contact details public, make them easy to find, make sure that there's not a big challenge here. Make it clear you are open to contributing and helping and participating and that you hope that by doing these things you spread your brand. This will invite people to email you, to tweet at you, to link to you, to reference you when they are seeking contributors to these types of things. Contact details, by the way, also important to make sure that those are easily accessible and findable from your site and anywhere you do participate.

Number six, your photos, your images, or your graphics. The pro tip here, have an images or photos section on your site if you can, especially if you have a large media library, and then make sure it is open to licensing in exchange for a link. You can use the creative comments licensing, you can create your own licensing, you can create little things that make it easy to embed any of your images or any of your graphics and earn that link back. By the way, another pro tip on this, if someone is using your images, or you suspect that they are, use Google's similar images link inside. Here, I'll show you right here. Let's say I have just done a search for an image, and I have clicked on that image. Now you're going to see the image here, and there is a little X, and then Google has a sidebar over here with some links after I have clicked it, and one of those is "similar images." If you click on "similar images," that will show you other images like this one, oftentimes, people who have taken your image but haven't given you credit. You can then reach out to them and be like, "Hey, what's the deal?" Does it look weird having Santa kind of give a . . .

Number seven, your full feed, your full RSS feed. The pro tip here is, especially, this is important to not go partial feed but to go full feed when you're giving RSS because lots of people will republish that, lots of people will reference it, email it, subscribe, etc. Great for marketing. And pro tip, use absolute links. Don't use /blog whatever. Use www.mysite, the full link, because when it gets referenced on other sites, it will point back to you and that link will count and pass value.

Number eight, last but not least, your data. Undoubtedly, if you're doing interesting things in the world of product, of marketing, of customer research, of embedding yourself in a community, you are collecting valuable, super cool data. A great way to do this is to first build a list of likely writers, people who you think would be interested in the data you're providing. This could be white paper kinds of data. It could be research and survey data. It might be data you've generated from all the users of your product or from whatever it is that you're collecting. And then reach out. Before you have it, reach out and ask if they want access. By doing that, you create this wonderful confirmation, because you said, "Hey, Dear Writer, Do you want access to this cool data that we've got? Would you like to share? Would you be interested? Would your customers be interested? Would your readers be interested?" A lot of the time they'll say, "Yes, I would be interested. Please do share that with me." If you instead just reach out and say, "Hey we have this cool data," you get a lot of ignores. But if you first reach out and say, "Hey, Kenny, I know you write on the SEOmoz blog. Would you be potentially interested in some data about the social media marketing field?" Kenny will be like, "Hmm, yeah, that's sounds interesting. Send it over to me." Then you send it over and say, "Hey, we'd love if you could at least tweet or share it, and if you blog about it, that'd be even better." This is a great way of making sure they get your data and then link to you.

All right, everyone, I hope you've enjoyed this silly edition of Whitebeard Friday. It's been a fantastic year. Hope you have a great holiday, and we will see you again next week. Yes, even between Christmas and New Year's we're going to be doing Whiteboard Friday. See you next week for another edition. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


Do you like this post? Yes No

Historical Link Analysis is Here!

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:38 AM PST

Posted by Samantha Britney

Season's Greetings, fellow Mozzers! As if this month hasn’t been exciting enough with the release of Custom Reports and Branded Keywords, today we have a special surprise for you. You asked for it, and we are happy to deliver. Introducing Historical Link Analysis for PRO!


(Photo credit: Dana Pleasant Photography)

Being able to see your link metric data over time helps demonstrate the effectiveness of your link building strategies. And hey, who doesn’t like to see progress? Read on to see how this new feature works.

Subdomain Link Metrics

This update to the Links section is full of lots of little goodies. Not only are we now storing your campaign link metrics over time, but we have also added Subdomain Link Analysis metrics for you and your competitors.


 

Historical Data Charts

What matters most in viewing historical metrics is how you are faring against your competition. For each metric, you can view historical data over time in comparison to your competitors.  This way you can distinguish between the effects of your hard work to improve your link metrics and fluctuations that affect the entire index.



 

You can view historical data via the History tab or by using the menu link next to a given metric on the Summary tab. You can also export all historical data to a CSV file.


 

You may notice that we have made a few additional improvements to the Link Analysis section, including:

  • adding Total External Links to Root Domain Metrics (to align with what is reported in Open Site Explorer)
  • moving Link details to a separate tab for better readability
  • updating the Summary PDF report to include Subdomain metrics

Linkscape Index Updates

Your link analysis metrics will continue to be updated every time a new index is released. With the rollout of this feature we'll now be able to store your data from previous indices as well, starting with data from the October 28th index. However, this data only goes back as far as you campaign does. When you create a new campaign, we'll only begin storing link metrics for you and your competitors from that point forward.

In order to give you the best data, we’re continually improving our Linkscape crawlers and the data they return to the Index. As indices change, it’s possible that your metrics may change as a result of what is included in one index vs. another. This may occur even if a site’s link profile hasn’t changed at all. I encourage you to check out Rand’s Linkscape Index blog posts (released with each new index) to better understand additional factors that could affect your metrics. Best practices indicate that you should always compare your progress against your competitors, versus solely comparing to your past performance.

Let Us Know What You Think

We hope these product updates bring a little cheer to your holiday season. As always, we would love your feedback! Feel free to share your thoughts, or holiday stories, via a comment on this post. For feature ideas you can always share via the feature request forum.

Happy holidays!

 


Do you like this post? Yes No

West Wing Week or "#40dollars"

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, Dec. 23, 2011
 

West Wing Week or "#40dollars"

With the holidays in full swing and the countdown clock ticking away, President Obama continued to press Congress for the extension of the payroll tax cut for 160 million working Americans and unemployment insurance benefits for those looking for work. The President urged House Republicans to put aside their political games and pass a bill that garnered overwhelming, bipartisan support in the Senate. 

Watch the Video:

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

President Obama: "This is Good News"
President Obama praises the deal to extend the payroll tax cut.

Honoring Military Families for the Holidays
Go inside the White House and the Naval Observatory for a look at how the troops are being honored for their service during the holidays.

President Obama Discusses What $40 Means for Americans Families
President Obama discusses what $40 means for Americans who would see their taxes increase if the House of Representatives doesn't take action.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

12:15 PM: The President delivers a statement WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:05 PM: The President departs the White House en route Andrews Air Force Base

1:20 PM: The President departs Andrews Air Force Base en route Honolulu, Hawaii

11:25 PM: The President arrives in Honolulu, Hawaii

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Get Updates

Sign up for the Daily Snapshot

Stay Connected

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Click here to unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

 

SEOptimise

SEOptimise


To blog comment or not to blog comment? 65% say YES to blog commenting!

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 06:01 AM PST

Blog comments:  quick link building win or spam-tastic black hat method you wouldn't touch with a barge pole?

I wanted to find out what the general consensus was on this controversial topic within the SEO world, so I set out on something of a fact-finding mission to attempt to answer one question:  does blog commenting work, and if so, can it be done in a white hat way? (Ok, I guess that's two questions then.)

Let's clarify what we mean by 'blog commenting'
We've probably all left comments on blog posts we've enjoyed or where we've felt we had something to contribute. What we're talking about here is the use of blog commenting purely for the purposes of gaining links – i.e. you wouldn't have left a comment if you hadn't been trying to build a link. That might mean an anonymous blog comment with an anchor text link in true old-school black hat style, or it could mean the more socially acceptable form of an actual contribution to a post but including a link back in the author profile, with your name as the anchor text. Or it could mean a comment linking to a resource on your site because it's relevant to the post in question. Either way, the motivation behind the blog commenting I'm talking about is self-serving, making it ethically questionable in the eyes of many.

Are people still using blog comments in this day and age?
I ran a quick poll to gain a rough idea of what proportion of the SEO community actually use blog commenting as a link building tactic. Here are the results, based on 52 votes:


So, based on this sample size, that's 65% of SEOs saying yes to some form of blog commenting being used for link building. Encouragingly, it looks as though most are doing so using their real identity, but that's still 35% who don't 'do' blog commenting (or at least, won't own to it).

So does blog commenting actually help your rankings?
One could argue that if it didn't work, people wouldn't still be building links using this method. But then, plenty of people still use the obsolete meta keywords tag. Does blog commenting still work, or are the 65% who said they do it wasting their time?

The anecdotal evidence certainly supports the argument in favour of blog commenting for link building. One particularly enthusiastic commenter on the poll said:

"I, and many other people, have ranked pages using nothing but blog comment links.

There’s no opinion in if it works or not – the answer is yes. How *well* it works vs. other tactics, what types of terms it can work for, and if it’s worth the effort of doing manually are other questions entirely.

But, as a sweeping statement – anyone who claims it doesn’t work either… did it wrong, never tried for themselves, or didn’t do enough of it." – Ian Howells

I also asked SEOptimise's very own link building genius Marcus Taylor for his opinion, and he said:

“Blog commenting is something I’ve experimented with considerably over the years and have ranked sites competitively using just blog commenting as a strategy, so I can confidently say that it does work, although it’s certainly not the most effective link building strategy."

Overcoming the obstacles
What are the main obstacles to blog commenting? Do the obstacles mean that it's ultimately an ineffective link building method? Let's take a look:

  • Perhaps the main obstacle to blog commenting for link building is that many of the comments you make may be filtered out, either automatically by spam software such as Akismet, or manually by whoever approves the comments.
  • You have to spend time finding blogs to comment on. If you're putting any thought into blog commenting, you may be finding blogs which are relevant to your industry – thus providing links from relevant pages.
  • You have to take the time to make an actual contribution if you want your comment to be approved. That really means actually reading the post, which can be time consuming.

So is it still worth it? Some surmise that blog comment links, even followed ones, may carry less weight with Google than regular links. However, as Rand Fishkin points out in this useful post on blog commenting, if you leave a helpful enough comment, the author of the post might even edit the original post to include your link in the post itself – and that's a lot better than relying on comment-based links!  The bottom line:  a helpful response that suggests your link as an additional resource is likely to result in sufficient success to justify the extra time it takes to leave a worthwhile comment.

Blog commenting isn't just about rankings
Those who scream "black hat" at the practice of blog commenting are perhaps forgetting that there are benefits other than rankings. For example, it's certainly helpful in blogger outreach – if you've contributed useful points to someone's blog posts in the past and they recognise your name as someone who knows what they're talking about, you're much more likely to be able to guest post for them. It's also a reasonably effective way of engaging with relevant communities – i.e. your target market.

This is what my Twitter followers had to say about blog commenting…

"Not sure I use it for link building per se, but I do leave them for the engagement side. I encourage clients to engage in communities in that way – would I do it on their behalf? Not unless I really knew what I was saying inside out, as saying the wrong things is more damaging for the brand than any link gain may give." – Peter Handley

"Although I don’t use commenting for link building directly, I do sometimes use it as an early stage of building a relationship with a blogger or particular author as part of outreach projects." – Paul Rogers

Marcus Taylor added, “I think the greater benefit of commenting is to build relationships with the bloggers themselves. In my opinion, there’s nothing wrong with blog commenting, providing you don’t do the whole spammy anchor text name thing and you do add value to the post.  Steer clear of overdoing it or doing it on spammy/irrelevant sites solely for the links and you’ll be fine.”

So from what I've seen, the consensus seems to be:  there's still a place for blog commenting – but not the spammy black hat kind. Blog comments can build you valuable links both directly and indirectly, but maximum benefit comes from genuine engagement – communicate what you're interested in and knowledgeable about, and the time it takes will more than repay itself.

Image by Kristina B on Flickr.

© SEOptimise - Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. To blog comment or not to blog comment? 65% say YES to blog commenting!

Related posts:

  1. SEOptimise Blog – We Want Your Views!
  2. SEOptimise’s 58 most awesome blog posts of 2011
  3. blog

Seth's Blog : Firemen, donuts and meetings

Firemen, donuts and meetings

When a building is burning down, fireman coordinate their actions, make decisions and save lives.

They do this without Aeron desk chairs or Dunkin Donuts. They do it without subcommittees, McKinsey studies or input from the boss in another city.

To quote Al Pittampalli, "why bother going to a meeting if you're not prepared to change your mind?" To which I'd add, "Don't bother having a meeting if you're not there to change or make a decision right now."

Somewhere along the way, meetings changed into events where we wait for someone to take responsibility (while everyone else dives for cover).

How would you do it differently if the building were burning down? Because it is.

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




 


Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

joi, 22 decembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Spanish Implosion Coming Up; Deficit Up, Receipts Down, a Need to Cut 40 Billion in Expenses from 90 Billion; Spain's "Hidden Deficit"

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 07:46 PM PST

My friend Bran from Spain sent a pair of articles in Spanish that highlight the impossible situation facing Spain. The links below have a target of Google Translations.

Need to Cut 40 Billion Euros from 90 Billion 

Spain needs to cut 40 billion euros from its budget to meet its deficit target for 2012. The problem is there is only 90 billion of expenses to 'play with' according to an article in Libre Mercado: The maze of Montoro: save 40,000 million without "social cuts"
To reach the deficit target agreed with Brussels, the new finance minister will have to come to his office with scissors ready.

The key figure is 4.4%. This is the deficit target committed to the EU by 2012. Would overcome a difficult situation in Spain, both to their partners as compared to international investors. In theory, 2011 will end with a deficit of 6% (so say government forecasts), this would leave a hole of 16,500 million for the coming year.

The problem is that almost no one believes any longer in these figures. Funcas predictions published yesterday, which included a deficit of 8% this year. With this figure, the gap would be closed would be about 40,000 million.

To climb this column, Treasury can raise taxes or trust fund to increase the current rates. The first has been ruled out by [Prime Minister] Rajoy, at least in the short term.

The following graph shows the distribution of state revenues by item. As seen, the vast majority, almost 70% comes from direct taxes and social contributions (income tax and companies mainly). Obviously, these items depend very much on the economic activity, any slowdown could even make predictions of the Government go down, which would make the situation even more complicated.



With this background, most of the adjustment will have to come, necessarily, on the expenditure side. At his inauguration, Montoro says he will not come to the Treasury to "make cuts, but to make reforms."

65% of spending is directed to pay the debt, the Ministry of Labour and Social Security (pensions).

The rest (35%) will have to come almost all the adjustment. This is a 91,000 million euros. Imagine the magnitude of the task.
Mission Impossible

The article says debt, pensions, and unemployment are not touchable. Also, Prime Minister Rajoy has ruled out tax hikes (for the short-term) whatever that means.

The entire setup is mathematical nonsense. Should the prime minister resort to tax hikes, it will plunge Spain even deeper into recession.

Spanish unemployment is already 22.8%. 

Spain's Hidden Deficit

A second article discusses Spain's Hidden Deficit
One of the foremost experts on national circumstances says "Rajoy has no room to bring out all the hidden deficit and will not." Their main argument is the experience of what happened in Greece, where Papandreou, just come to power deficit brought to light hidden by the previous government and that is the source of the recent seizures in the debt market.

The challenges for 2011 will close with a deficit equivalent to 6% of GDP today seem to me almost insurmountable. Especially considering the revenue performance.

The data announced yesterday by the Tax Office indicated, namely that fiscal consolidation measures have saved up to 8.167 million in November, including the reduction in the VAT rate to 4% on the purchase of new housing, at a cost to the exchequer audience estimated at 115 million euros.

According to the Tax Agency , the comparison between the total amount of regulatory impacts and increased revenues accumulating to November (761 million) it follows that in the absence thereof, the tax revenues would decline recorded in 2011 around -4%, "in line with the fall of the aggregate tax base of taxes in the first three quarters."

This drop in real income-without 'extraordinarios'-explains the suspicion that the real deficit will grow as and when the accounts of the autonomous communities, municipalities and social security itself, which will close this year with a deficit, when expected a surplus of four tenths of GDP, about 4,000 million euros. Especially considering that during the second half of the year the economy has performed worse than the first. And in this context, appear with a deficit of 7% or 8% before the markets seems to be a problem for the new government.
The simple translation is Spain's budget deficit is bigger than they say and revenues are expected to drop next year by 4%.

Bran writes ... "This article tells us that the new government cannot afford to bring out all the debt into the open because when Greece did so, the markets abandoned the country. For each 1% the deficit is off target, another 10 billion must be cut from 2012. People are placing the deficit for 2011 at 7 or 8% as opposed to the planned 6%. FUNCAS gave the 40 billion cut needed mentioned above based on 8% deficit this year."

The Prime Minister apparently thinks if he does not admit the debt and the worsening deficit, the market will ignore the problem. We will soon find out for how long.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Italy GDP Contracts in Q3, Heads for Harsh Recession; Bizarro World Math; Sarkozy Announces He Will Not Be Sarkozy; LIBOR-OIS Spread Says ECB's 3-Year Financing Scheme Nothing But A "Sugar Rush"

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 09:50 AM PST

With 2011 rapidly winding down EuroIntelligence discusses the LIBOR-OIS spread, the ECB's Long Term Refinance Operation (LTRO) and the End of Yet Another Suckers' Rally
There is a depressing regularity about any apparent good news that comes from Europe these days. The markets cheer for a short period, and then revert to normality once they realise that the underlying problems have once again not been addressed. The good news this time was the higher than forecast take-up of the ECB's three-year long-term financing operation [LTRO], which came in at €489bn. The markets rallied strongly on those numbers, hoping that the banks would not come to the rescue of sovereigns and start buying up bonds. In reality, what we are seeing is that banks are dumping their most toxic asset-backed securities, including their own bonds, as ECB collateral.

The FT has the story, quoting one analyst as calling the LTRO a "sugar rush" – which about sums up the overall effect of the ECB's liquidity policies. Also note that the Libor-OIS spread, which measures the stress in inter-banking markets, has not eased up since last week.

The best comment this morning on the impact of this operation came from Mark Schieritz, [Translated From German] who gives a downbeat-realistic assessment. He says the liquidity shower will have a marginally positive impact on the banking sector, in the sense that it reduces the probability of a liquidity squeeze. It probably prevents a massive liquidity crunch, but it is unlikely to lead to more private sector credit. He also dismissed the backdoor theory – that banks would now use the money to buy government bonds. One reason for their caution is that future stress tests might require a corresponding increase of core-tier one capital to back such purchases. Schrieritz concludes that most of the money will end up with the ECB.
LIBOR-OIS Spread

Wikipedia LIBOR-OIS Spread Explanation
St. Louis Fed LIBOR-OIS Spread Explanation



LIBOR-OIS Spread Chart courtesy of Bloomberg

The spread and the direction of the spread suggests underlying stress in credit markets. A healthy spread would be about .1. Although elevated, the spread is nowhere near as bad as during the Lehman collapse in 2008.



LTRO  "Sugar Rush"

ZeroHedge comments on the ECB's financing scheme in Here Is The Math: Carry Trade Profits From The LTRO Are Woefully Insufficient To Make Any Impact
Following yesterday's €489 billion LTRO there are few things we know with certainty, primary among them is that the net proceeds from the 3 year refi operation are really €210 billion, due to the rolling of various other duration facilities which are already in use into the LTRO as discussed yesterday.

What we do not know, is whether the net proceeds of €210 billion have been used by banks to purchase sovereign debt or as Peter Tchir suggested, are actually used in a reflexive ponzi whereby banks use the explicit ECB guarantee to buy their own debt.

Perhaps the best evidence that the LTRO was an epic failure when it comes to subsidizing the peripheral bond market is the fact that hours after its completion the ECB was forced to jump into the secondary market and buy up billions in Italian and Spanish bonds: an action that was supposed to be conducted by the banks themselves.
Italy GDP Contracts in Q3, Heads for Harsh Recession

Reuters reports Italy economy shrinks, heads for harsh recession
Italy's economy shrank in the third quarter, setting the country on course for what is expected to be a prolonged recession hampered by a debt burden demanding harsh austerity.

Gross domestic product in the euro zone's third-largest economy sank 0.2 percent from the previous three months, hit by a fall in domestic demand. It was up just 0.2 percent year-on-year, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported on Wednesday.

The data was weaker than expected and points to an economy deeply troubled even before tough austerity measures were adopted in recent months to try to cap soaring borrowing costs.

"A flurry of poor economic data and the intense financial contagion hitting Italy from the euro zone debt crisis point to a painful and prolonged recession which is expected to prevail until the final quarter of 2012," said IHS Global Insight's Raj Badiani, who forecast a 1.5 percent GDP contraction in 2012.

This will make new, technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti's task even harder.

Earlier this month, he presented 34 billion euros of tax hikes and spending cuts, saying Italy's third austerity package since the summer was needed because of a deteriorating growth outlook.
Bizarro World Math

Check out that last paragraph closely. Only on Bizarro World would one need tax hikes and austerity packages "because of a deteriorating growth outlook".

Sarkozy Promises to Not be Sarkozy

Also straight from Bizarro World please consider this snip from EuroIntelligence
Sarkozy announces there will be a "break" between president and candidate Sarkozy

Speaking to about 100 deputies from his own UMP, Nicolas Sarkozy announced there will be "break" between what he stands for as the current President and what the candidate Sarkozy will stand for, according to Les Echos [In French].

Without going into detail he raised expectations for the job summit he intends to hold on January 18, which may be inspired by his talks with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder past Tuesday when the former German explained how he introduced the far reaching social and labour law reforms with his „Agenda 2010" in the early 2000s. Sarkozy was upbeat regarding his chances to win the presidential elections in May 2010. The president compared his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande to former presidential hopefuls such as Edouard Balladur or Lionel Jospin who were leading the polls in December but who lost in the elections in spring.
The candidate Sarkozy is in essence running against the track record of the current French president Sarkozy. Incredible.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Bernanke Spreads "Happy Dust"; Did the Economy Respond? Will the Economy Respond? Mish 2011 Predictions Review

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:02 AM PST

Reader "JB" emailed a link to a Bloomberg article citing a quote by Allen Sinai, co-founder and chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics in New York that the Fed was spreading "Happy Dust".

Indeed most of the article is about "Happy Dust", that essentially everyone will live happily ever after, and Bernanke merely ran into "Bad Luck" in 2011.

Please consider Bernanke Prods Savers to Become Consumers by Bloomberg columnist Rich Miller.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke finally may be catching a break: His easy-money policies are showing signs of speeding up the economic rebound three years after he cut interest rates to zero.

"When the Fed sprinkles happy dust on the economy, we always respond," said Allen Sinai, co-founder and chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics in New York. "The happy dust has been out there a long, long time, and I think it finally may be settling in some places."

He sees growth accelerating in the range of 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent next year from 1.5 percent to 2 percent this year, when the economy was hit by what Bernanke called "some elements of bad luck" in a Nov. 2 news conference. These include a run- up in oil prices caused by the Arab spring and a sell-off (SPX) in the stock market triggered by Europe's debt crisis.

Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey, is even more optimistic than Sinai. Crandall -- the most-accurate forecaster of the U.S. economy as of Dec. 1, based on Bloomberg calculations -- predicts growth next year of just over 3 percent, as companies become more confident about the outlook and expand their businesses.

The resilience of the economy will lift corporate earnings and stock prices, Sinai said. Operating profits of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rise by an average of 8 percent to 10 percent in 2012, and the stock gauge will end the year at 1,400, he forecasts -- up from 1,241.30 at 4 p.m. in New York yesterday.
Happy Dust, Bad Luck, or Wishful Thinking?

Making predictions,  especially about the future, is extremely difficult - to paraphrase Yogi Berra.

Apparently no one could have foreseen the "bad luck" that came in 2011.

However, I can't help wondering what Lou Crandall and Allen Sinai were saying in 2007, 2008, and 2011.

Is there any reason to believe their forecasts for 2012? Perhaps there is. So let's see their forecasts for 2007, 2008, and 2011.

Predicting the Future is Extremely Difficult

I did not do so well predicting 2010. Happy Dust (known as QE II) got in my way. I did not think it would matter, but it did, and I was wrong.

However, I did get the turn in housing on the nose in 2005. In 2007-2008 I got the bond market on the nose with a call for record low yields across the entire yield curve. I also called for deflation (defined as a collapse in credit) and also for the rise in gold.

In a major call I took on Doug Kass in 2008 when Kass said "Sell Bonds Short".

When everyone saw inflation, I saw deflation as well as a rise in gold prices.

However, it is easy to point out good calls while ignoring the bad calls. I have had a number of bad calls as had everyone else who dares make predictions about the future.

2011 Predictions Review

Every year before I make my predictions for the next year, I take a look at how I did the past year. Sometimes it is a humiliating experience, sometimes not. However, I will put my 2011 calls up against anyone, in spite of starting off with a huge miss.

Please consider Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011 written December 22, 2010. Each of the 10 predictions is immediately followed by a review in retrospect.

1. US Municipal Bankruptcies Head to Center Stage
Look for Detroit and at least one other city in Michigan to go bankrupt. Also look for increasing discussions regarding bankruptcy from Los Angeles, Miami, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. Those cities are definitely bankrupt, they just have not admitted it yet. The first major city to go bankrupt will cause a huge stir in the municipal bond market. Best to avoid Munis completely.

1 Review:  Detroit is in trouble and Harrisburg did declare bankruptcy. Jefferson County Alabama became the biggest US bankruptcy in history. Thus, I could spin this into a neutral call if not a correct call. But I won't. The intent behind my call was a troubled Muni Bond market. I missed the mark. Munis in general did well. I got this wrong.

2. Sovereign Debt Crisis Hits Europe
The ECB and EU are hoping things return to normal and they can deal with things more calmly in 2013. The markets will not wait. Expect a new Parliament in Ireland to want to renegotiate whatever horrendous deal Prime Minister Brian Cowen agrees to. Portugal and Spain will need bailouts. The surprise play in Europe will be Italy, a country not on anyone's front burner. Italy will come under intense credit market pressure, and when it does the whole Eurozone comes unglued. Europe's banks are insolvent and ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will have a choice, haircuts or massive printing.

2 Review: Emphasis in red added. This was a home run. Few if any eyes were focused on Italy or European banks when I wrote that in December 2010.

3. Cutbacks in US Cities and States
With Republican governors holding a majority of governorships, with Republicans holding a majority in the House, and with a far more conservative Senate, there is going to be little enthusiasm for increasing aid to states. There will be some aid to states of course, but nowhere near as much as needed to prevent cutbacks. Expect to see a huge number of layoffs and/or cutbacks in services. Cutbacks in cities and states will be a good thing, but that will counteract other gains in employment. The unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high.

3 Review: The unemployment rate was stubbornly high until perhaps last month (assuming 8.6% is not stubbornly high, although I think it is). There was undoubtedly cutbacks in state government across the board. This was a solid call.

4. Public Unions Under Intense Attack
Public unions will face increasing hostility, not only in the US but also the Eurozone and UK. Look for Congress to consider legislation to kill collective bargaining. If it passes, the president would veto it. The problem however will not go away. Cities and states in distress will increasingly outsource every contract they can.

4 Review:  There was not fireworks at the national level but fireworks in Wisconsin and Ohio exceeded all expectations. Cities and states are indeed in stress. Unions are under attack in the UK, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal.

5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes Coming
China, everyone's favorite promised land, has a hard landing. China will grow at perhaps 5-6% but that is nowhere near as much as China wants, or the world expects. Tightening in China will crack its property bubble and more importantly pressure commodities. The longer China holds off in tightening, the harder the landing.

5 Review: China did hike multiple times to slow inflation and rein in its property bubble. Growth slowed, but not to the extent I expected, but more than enough to matter. The Shanghai stock index is one of the weakest global markets. I could spin this as a home run, given sentiment on emerging markets and China was extreme to the opposite direction.

6. Property Bubble Bursts Wide Open in Australia and Canada
Australia, having largely avoided the global recession runs out of luck this time around. Look for the Australian economy to fall into outright recession. Look for Canada to slow dramatically as its property bubble pops. The US property bubble is much further progressed, by years, than Australia, Canada, and China. This matters immensely.

6 Review: Half correct. The bubble in Australia burst. The bubble in Canada did not. It will.

7. US Avoids Double Dip
The tax cut extensions and the payroll tax decrease will keep the US out of recession. However, growth estimates are still too high. The tax cut extensions do nothing more than maintain the status quo while the payroll tax deduction is just for a year. Most will use it to pay down bills. Look for GDP at 2.0-2.5%. That is the stall rate.

7 Review: Amusingly, I did better at the beginning of the year than my mid-year forecast of recession in 3rd or 4th quarter. A very good call.

8. Year That Something Matters
For the global equity markets, this will be the year that something matters. Certainly nothing mattered in 2010, and optimism for equities is at extreme levels. I have no targets other than a suggestion this is an extremely poor time to invest in darn near anything.

8 Review: That was a rock-solid call.

9. Decoupling in Reverse
I do not think any countries decouple in 2011, including China. However, on a relative basis, the US could. Europe is a basket case, China is overheating, Australia is headed for recession, the UK is going nowhere, and 2.0-2.5% growth in the US just might look damn good compared to anything else. Bear in mind far more than 2.0-2.5% US growth is priced in, but on a relative basis that is likely to smash the performance of the Eurozone, Australia, and Canada. China may grow 5.0-6.0% but with 10% priced in, overweight China, the emerging markets and the commodity producing countries is a serious mistake. Actually, equities are a mistake in general and so are commodities. Finally, falling commodity prices would be US dollar supportive and supportive of a decreasing US trade deficit as well, especially if grain prices stay high while oil sinks. Should grains stay firm while other commodities sink, it would help boost US GDP.

9 Review: Like my forecast on Italy, I am not aware of anyone else making this exact call. The US outperformed by a mile. European equities, Asian equities, Japanese equities, and Australian equities were hammered. The US was flat. This was another home run.

10. US Dollar to Strengthen
Look for the US dollar to strengthen because of the net effect of all the above issues.

10 Review: Not quite. After a ride in both directions the US dollar is roughly where it was a year ago. Given that most thought the dollar would sink, I will take half credit. 

Overall Score

I will rate that 8 out of 10 with 2 home runs and possibly a couple doubles.

Here is the deal. It is very easy to get one year right or one year wrong. I have made numerous wrong calls, but fortunately more in short-term forecasting than long-term thinking.

The problem I have is mainstream media seeks out those with the hottest recent hand, but only from a list of candidates that manage the most amount of money.

People want to hear "Happy Talk", as well as "Home Runs" (but only from big names). Thus we see one-hit wonders like Paulson, coupled with "Happy Talk" in numerous places in 2007, 2008, and 2011 quoted all the time. Those who got it essentially correct for years are ignored.

In a subsequent post I will make some calls for 2012. Don't expect more home runs. This is a tough act to follow.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List