vineri, 30 decembrie 2011

Using Social Media Monitoring as an Inbound Marketing Channel - Whiteboard Friday

Using Social Media Monitoring as an Inbound Marketing Channel - Whiteboard Friday


Using Social Media Monitoring as an Inbound Marketing Channel - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 01:19 PM PST

Posted by Kenny Martin

In this week's special end of the year Whiteboard Friday, Rand shows us how to attract customers and accelerate our marketing efforts by using social media monitoring. Learning how to effectively build up relationships without spamming will be the key to your success in the social realm. We hope you had a wonderful 2011 and don't forget to leave your comments below.



Video Transcription

Howdy, SEOmoz fans. Welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This is our special end of year edition. I hope all of you had a great holiday season and are about to have a great New Year's. It's been fantastic spending 2011 with you, and I cannot wait for 2012. It's going to be incredible.

Today I want to talk a little bit about using social media monitoring specifically as an inbound marketing channel, as a way to attract customers and to accelerate your marketing efforts in all sorts of ways. Let me talk briefly about some background on this so you understand where I'm coming from.

Let's imagine that you're Minted.com. They make great holiday cards - Geraldine, my wife, and I use them to do our holiday cards recently - and they do some branded stuff. So they have searches, keywords that come to them that are branded - things like minted, and minted cards, and minted notebooks, and custom photo cards from Minted. We think about those as being keywords in their brand wheelhouse, that are about their brand.

But then they also have lots of unbranded terms, things that they want to try and capture, definitely from an SEO perspective, but other perspectives as well. So these are things like people who want holiday photo cards, who want Christmas cards, Xmas cards, Hanukah cards, custom notebook. They sell notebooks and all sorts of other things. So all those product types of searches, those things that would get you into their funnel, maybe not their brand specifically, but all those sorts of keywords, we often think about them, at least in the world of SEO, as being exclusively from a search engine type in perspective. But there's a social perspective on this too, and that's what I want to cover in this Whiteboard Friday.

So you can image there are channels, right? So there are things like SEO and PPC. People search for these words, and we want to try to come up in the organic results and in the paid search results. But then there are also channels like Q&A and forums, and blog posted content where they're talking about these items. There are questions on a Q&A board. There are questions on a forum. There's a discussion happening. There's a blog post with content that's saying, "Here's the best custom notebooks and why I like each of these vendors," those types of things. Those are conversations they might want to be part of.

Then there are the very specific social mentions. When you think about this, think about doing a search on Twitter, probably the most common way that social mentions are thought about, doing a search on Twitter for either your brand name, for people who are talking about or mentioning the word "minted," and then people who are talking about or mentioning the words "Xmas cards", "Hanukah cards", "Christmas cards", "custom notebooks", "photo cards", "holiday cards." When people do those mentions on social networks, you can see them as a social media manager, as an inbound marketer, as an SEO. You can see where those people are mentioning them, who those people are, and then you have the potential to reach out to them, and that can present some powerful things.

So these social media monitoring tactics are what I want to cover specifically. I've got four here, but there's tons more that you can certainly imagine. It's a powerful and largely untapped channel, but it can be a little bit dangerous. I'll talk about that as well.

So first off, if you're monitoring these types of unbranded terms, this is a great way to identify and connect with influencers. What I mean by identify is also understand them. What I feel like a lot of people do when they get into marketing in a new channel or around a new topic, a new keyword, or a new product is that they don't even understand what the world looks like, what the Web looks like, from that perspective. People who are in this world who are talking about these on blogs and forums, who are tweeting about this stuff, who are experts in this field, who are journalists, who are consumers, you're not in their world yet, but this is a great way to learn who the influencers are and start to build up those relationships.

So a great way to do this, of course, is monitoring these types of things and looking for those actual retweets in the search box inside Twitter or Google+. You can do this with Google+ public mentions as well. But there are tools to do it too. FollowerWonk is one of my favorites. You could also use FindPeople on Plus, which has a database where you can literally search for bios and say, "Hey, who's writing about gifts or Xmas? Who's a blogger? Who's writing about photo cards? Who's writing about customized paper products? Who's writing about holiday gifts? Who is an expert on, for example, kids' stuff or kids' toys?" Or those things that are ancillarilly related. Ancillarilly is not a word, but I'm going to use it anyway.

So there are things around these worlds that might be connections. So this could be, "Oh, I want to find who the writers are for magazines. I want to find who is the media person at the 'Today Show. I want to find who it is that blogs regularly about gifts and lifestyle types of blogs." All those things are things that you can use, services like FollowerWonk or FindPeople on Plus to discover those influencers and learn more about the segment while you're at it. Now this is a very research intensive process, but it means that you will be so much more effective with the content that you produce, with how you market that content and how you target it, and with who you reach out to. If you've built connections, natural connections, I'm talking about Tweeting back and forth, sort of getting them to follow you or earning their trust, sharing good things with them over time, then you can sort of share more promotional stuff, like, "Hey, so and so @Ranfish, I wrote this blog post. I'm emailing you to see if you would maybe want to share it on Twitter. It seems like the kind of thing you usually like to tweet about." And I'll be like, "Oh sure, of course, I actually really like that piece. That was a great piece. I'm going to tweet it." I did that two times this morning from emails. Please don't all email me with things that you need me to tweet. That would get a little overwhelming. But if you have something hyper-relevant, sure.

You can also do things like reaching out directly, but be really careful here. I'm sure you've all seen this on Twitter. So the idea is that you see someone mention the word Xmas cards, and then you reach out to them via Twitter and send them an at reply even though you're not following them and you may not have a pre-existing relationship. Let me show you two ways to do this and why this can be super dangerous.

So here is my sample Twitter friend Mobit, and Mobit has tweeted, "Crap! Forget to get Xmas cards, need to do that tonight." "Hmm, excellent, I'm thinking of my evil ways in which I will market to him." If this is your attitude, you might be going and following this black line and tweeting back to him, at everyone, including Mobit, anyone who says the words "Xmas cards", "Here is a bland spammy marketing message." I see this all the time where I tweet a specific word, and then I'll get a reply and I'll look at it and go, "Oh, they're just trying to sell me something because I mentioned that word." My favorite example of this that's not super spammy, it used to be the case that if you tweeted "honey badger," the honey badger @honeybadger would reply with, "Don't care." Now that was cute and funny. It could get old because you could see thousands of tweets coming from this clearly bot account that was just tweeting, "Don't care."

But those types of messages, that's not going to work very well. Twitter is going to catch you out on it. Remember there is a little flag thing over here that people will click, and they'll flag your message for spam. They'll flag your account for spam. Twitter reviews those pretty quickly. They don't want their service filled up with this, which means that you need to do something that is creative, insightful, personalized, and authentic.

So for example, at Mobit, "If you need help, give me a shout. Also, here's a 20% off coupon." This is going to be an extremely different tweet than what I send to maybe somebody else who does that. If we're talking about Xmas cards and there are 50 mentions an hour of these and I'm sending tweets to all 50 of them, that's still going to look spammy and manipulative. But if there are two or three of them that are very specific and say, "I specifically forgot about Christmas cards. I need my Xmas cards. I need my Hanukah cards," whatever it is, then great. That is something where a customized, personalized message, and especially if you do something like follow them or check out their other tweets and say something relevant to them, recognize what part of the country they're in, "Oh, you're in Alaska. By the way, we still do free shipping to Alaska." "Wow, cool! You know who I am. You care about me. Your message is authentic. It's personalized. It's insightful. I'll receive it graciously and happily." But you have to be careful about this type of outreach. It can be a great way to attract customers, particularly in certain segments. It can be a great way even to share content or share links if you trying to get sort of mentioned or retweeted by someone, or if you're trying to get additional awareness or attention, not even necessarily someone directly, but it can be dangerous.

Number three, this one's a little less dangerous, but you still have to maintain all of those same attributes in mind for the messaging you do, which is reaching out privately. So I'll do this actually on occasion where I'll see a Twitter user or I'll see someone at Google+ and they'll mention something specific and I'll say, "You know what? I look at their bio and I see that they work at . . ." I saw this recently for someone who worked at a social media marketing agency here in Seattle, and I thought, "You know what? I would love to have someone from that agency look at some of the new products that we're building, and therefore maybe I can get them into the office and do a product review with the team. So I'm going to tweet back at them." Then I saw them out at an event, actually, and I got their business card and I emailed them.

So those types of relationship building are a great way to go, particularly if you're doing more of a one-to-one type of business development. This private thing, using DM, going out and digging up their email address from their website, from their LinkedIn profile, connecting on there, getting an introduction to someone, those are all perfectly legitimate ways, and they're a little less exposing you to the sort of dangers of being flagged as a spammer. But you can do this authentically, and you have to do this one authentically as well.

The fourth and final one that I'm going to talk about, which I like a tremendous amount, is finding content that's being referenced, right? So people are tweeting. Let me give you another example. Here's our friend Mobit again, and he says, "Oh, you know there were some great Xmas cards suggestions on LifeHacker today." "Hmm, LifeHacker, you say." I know what to do. I'm going to go over and I'm going to check out the site where these folks are mentioning, and I'm going to see what is that content? Does it mention me? If not, does it mention my competitors? Is it talking about the right stuff? Does it seem like it's in a field where I might potentially be able to contribute guest content, make a direct suggestion, "Hey, by the way, editors at LifeHacker, did you know Minted also offers this? We loved to be mentioned next time you guys do a roundup of customizable photo holiday cards." Cool, right? Maybe they'll pick it up, maybe they won't. If you do a few of those and you build those connections the right way, you can link in to those editors and journalists, those writers.

You can connect via comment marketing. By comment marketing I mean, again, leaving good comments on a consistent basis, finding the blogs you want to follow, doing it in an authentic way. Otherwise you can get into serious trouble. But getting familiar with those channels is a great way to discover opportunities for your content to reach additional audiences. It's also a fantastic way to see which content performs well, which is a question that a lot of people who do any kind of inbound marketing, SEO, social, blogging, whatever you're doing, you're trying to figure out what content's going to perform well. This is a great way to figure that out through social media monitoring. Of course, then you can go back and earn the links, the mentions, the press that you're seeking.

All right, everyone, I hope you've enjoyed this edition of Whiteboard Friday. I hope you had a fantastic 2011 and that your 2012 is just as good or better. I hope we'll see you again next week. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Scripting SEO: 5 Panda-Fighting Tricks for Large Sites

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 03:54 AM PST

Posted by Corey Northcutt

For anyone that's experienced the joys of doing SEO on an exceedingly large site, you know that keeping your content in check isn't easy. Continued iterations of the Panda algorithm have made this fact brutally obvious for anyone that's responsible for more than a few hundred thousand pages.

As an SEO with a programming background and a few large sites to babysit, I was forced to fight the various Panda updates throughout this year through some creative server-side scripting. I'd like to share some with you now, and in case you're not well-versed in nerdspeak (data formats, programming, and Klingon), I'll start each item with a conceptual problem, the solution (so at least you can tell your developer what to do), and a few code examples for implementation (assumes that they didn't understand you when you told them what to do). My links to the actual code are in PHP/MySQL, but realize that these methods translate pretty simply into most any scenario.

OBLIGATORY DISCLAIMER: Although I've been successful at implementing each of these tricks, be careful. Keep current backups, log everything you do so that you can roll-back, and if necessary, ask an adult for help.

1.) Fix Duplicate Content between Your Own Articles

The Problem

Sure, you know not to copy someone else's content. But what happens when over time, your users load your database full of duplicate articles (jerks)? You can write some code that checks if articles are an exact match, but no two are going to be completely identical. You need something that's smart enough to analyze similarity, and you need to be about as clever as Google is at it.

The Solution

There's a sophisticated measure of how similar two bodies of text are using something called Levenshtein distance analysis. It measures how many edits would be necessary to transform one string into another, and can be translated into a related percentage/ratio of how similar one string is to another. When running this maintenance script on 1 million+ articles that were 50-400 words, deleting only duplicate articles with a 90% similarity in Levenshtein ratio, the margin of error was 0 in each of my trials (and the list of deletions was a little scary, to say the least).

The Technical

Levenshtein comparison functions are available in basically every programming language and are pretty simple to use. Running comparisons on 10,000 individual articles against one another all at once is definitely going to make your web/database server angry, however, so it takes a bit of creativity to finish this process while we're all still alive to see your ugly database.

levenshtein distance function

What follows may not be ideal practice, or something you want to experiment with heavily on a live server, but it gets this tough job done in my experience.

  1. Create a new database table where you can store a single INT value (or if this is your own application and you're comfortable doing it, just add a row somewhere for now). Then create one row that has a default value of 0.
     
  2. Have your script connect to the database, and get the value form the table above. That will represent the primary key of the last article we've checked (since there's no way you're getting through all articles in one run).
     
  3. Select that article, and check it against all other articles by comparing Levenshtein distance. Doing this in the application layer will be far faster than running comparisons as a database stored procedure (I found the best results occurred when using levenshteinDistance2(), available in the comments section of levenshtein() on php.net). If your database size makes this run like poop through a funnel (checking just 1 article against all others at once), consider only comparing articles by the same author, of similar length, posted in a similar date range, or other factors that might help reduce your data set of likely duplicates.
     
  4. Handle the duplicates as you see fit. In my case, I deleted the newer entry and stored a log in a new table with full text of both, so individual mistakes could later be reverted (there were none, however). If your database isn't so messy or you still fear mistakes after testing a bit, it may very well be good enough just to store a log and later review them by hand.
     
  5. After you're done, store the primary key of the last article that you checked in the database entry from i.). You can loop through ii.) - iv.) a few more times on this run if this didn't take too long to execute. Run this script as many times as necessary on a one minute cronjob or with the Windows Task Scheduler until complete, and keep a close eye on your system load.

2.) Spell-Check Your Database

The Problem

Sure, it would be best if your users were all above a third grade reading level, but we know that's not the case. You could have a professional editor run through content before it went live on your site, but now it's too late. Your content is now a jumbled mess of broken English, and in dire need of a really mean English teacher to set it all straight.

The Solution

Since you don't have an English teacher, we'll need automation. In PHP, for example, we have fun built-in tools like soundex(), or even levenshtein(), but when analyzing individual words, these just don't cut it. You could grab a list of the most common misspelled English words, but that's going to be hugely incomplete. The best solution that I've found is an open source (free) spell checking tool called the Portable Spell Checker Interface Library (Pspell), which uses the Aspell library and works very well.

The Technical

Once you get it setup, working with Pspell is really simple. After you've installed it using the link above, include the libraries in your code, and this function to return an array of suggestions for each word, with the word at array key 0 being the closest match found. Consider the basic logic from 1.) if it looks like it's going to be too much to tackle at once, incrementing your place as you step through the database, logging all actions in a new table, and (carefully) choosing whether or not you like the results well enough to automate the fixes or if you'd prefer to chase them by hand.

pspell example

3.) Implement rel="canonical" in Bulk

The Problem

link rel="canonical" is very useful tag for eliminating confusion when two URLs might potentially return the same content, such as when Googlebot makes its way to your site using an affiliate ID. In fact, the SEOmoz automated site analysis will yell at you on every page that doesn't have one. Unfortunately since this tag is page-specific, you can't just paste some HTML in the static header of your site.

The Solution

As this assumes that you have a custom application, let's say that you can't simply install ALL IN ONE SEO on your WordPress, or install a similar SEO plugin (because if you can, don't re-invent the wheel). Otherwise, we can tailor a function to serve your unique purposes.

The Technical

I've quickly crafted this PHP function with the intent of being as flexible as possible. Note that desired URL structures are different on different sites and scripts, so think about everything that's installed under a given umbrella. Use the flags that it mention in the description section so that it can best mesh with the needs of your site.
canonical link function

4.) Remove Microsoft Word's "Smart Quote" Characters

The Problem

In what could be Microsoft's greatest crime against humanity, MS Word was shipped with a genius feature that automatically "tilts" double and single quotes towards a word (called "smart quotes"), in a style that's sort of like handwriting. You can turn this off, but most don't, and unfortunately, these characters are not a part of the ASCII set. This means that various character sets used on the web and in databases that store them will often fail to present them, and instead, return unusable junk that users (and very likely, search engines) will hate.

The Solution

This one's easy: use find/replace on the database table that stores your articles.

The Technical

Here it is an example of how to fix this using MySQL database queries. Place a script on an occasional cron in Linux or using the Task Scheduler in Windows, and say goodbye to these ever appearing on your site again.

smart quotes mysql

5.) Fix Failed Contractions

The Problem

Your contributors are probably going to make basic grammar mistakes like this all over the map, and Google definitely cares. While it's important never to make too many assumptions, I've generally found that fixing common contractions is very sensible.

The Solution

You can use find/replace here, but it's not as simple as the solution fixing smart quotes, so you need to be careful. For example "wed" might need to be "we'd", or it might not. Other contractions might make sense while standing on their own, but find/replace by itself will also return results that are pieces of other words. So, we need to account for this as well.

The Technical

Note that there are two versions of each word. This is because in my automated proofreading trials, I've found it's common not only for an apostrophe to be omitted., but also for a simple typo to occur that puts the apostrophe after the last letter when Word's automated fix for this isn't on-hand. Words have also been surrounded by a space to eliminate a margin of error (this is key- just look at how many other words include 'dont' on one of these sites that people use to cheat in word games). Here's an example of how this works. This list is a bit incomplete, and leaves probably the most room for improvement in the list. Feel free to generate your own using this list of English contractions.

That should about do it. I hope everyone enjoyed my first post here on SEOMoz, and hopefully this stirs some ideas on how to clean up some large sites!


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West Wing Week: 12/30/11 or Best of the West (Wing Week)

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, Dec. 30, 2011
 

West Wing Week: 12/30/11 or Best of the West (Wing Week)

This week, we're taking a look back at the President's third year in office, highlighting behind-the-scenes footage and some of our favorite Presidential moments.

Watch the Best of the West (Wing Week).

2011 In Review

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Seth's Blog : The reason productivity improvements don't work (as well as they could)

The reason productivity improvements don't work (as well as they could)

GTD, 18 minute plans, organized folders... none of them work as well as you'd like.

The reason is simple: you don't want to get more done.

You're afraid. Getting more done would mean exposing yourself to considerable risk, to crossing bridges, to putting things into the world. Which means failure.

The leap the lizard brain takes when confronting the opportunity is a simple formula: GTD=Failure.

Until you quiet the resistance and commit to actually shipping things that matter, all the productivity tips in the world aren't going to make a real difference. And, it turns out, once you do make the commitment, the productivity tips aren't that needed.

You don't need a new plan for next year. You need a commitment.

 

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joi, 29 decembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Race Baiting and Ron Paul: Actions Speak Louder Than Words; Truth is Indeed Powerful

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 07:45 PM PST

When it comes to Ron Paul, many people pretend, with great indignation, that words not even said speak louder than actions. Jonathan Capehart writing for the Washington Post is such a person.

Before explaining further, first let's watch a video.



Admittedly that is a political ad. So what?

Here is the key question: Is there any reason to doubt the events in the video? If so why? Assuming, the video true, is there any reason to believe there is a racist bone in Ron Paul's body? Can the same be said for Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, or even Barrack Obama?

Mind you, the video describes an action, one that shows true character at precisely the right time. Sadly, Jonathan Capehart does not give a damn about that, he would rather spread lies and innuendo.

Please consider Ron Paul deserves to be 'blot out'.
The new ad from Revolution PAC is pretty powerful. James Williams, a black man, talks about his efforts to get medical attention for his pregnant white wife at a Texas hospital in the 1970s. The crescendo comes when a young doctor named Ron Paul broke through the indifference of the staff to give them the help they needed. Their baby would be stillborn. And Paul paid their medical expenses. Then Williams extols the virtues of Paul — his honesty and willingness to take on the establishment.
Truth is Indeed Powerful

Yes, Jonathan. The video is indeed powerful. The simple explanation is truth is always powerful. Lies and innuendo aren't.

Nonetheless Capehart prefers to go on spreading innuendo.
Revolution PAC is hoping that a black man coming to the defense of Paul will blot out the controversy surrounding the Texas congressman and the racists statements polluting newsletters bearing his name in the 1980s and 1990s.

Paul, a man who wants to be entrusted with the presidency, owes the American people a clear accounting of how hatred came to be scribbled regularly in publications bearing his name and how he had no knowledge of it. His dismissive disavowal of the matter is beyond inadequate.
Nothing will satisfy Jonathan Capehart. That video proves it. How? Capehart embedded the video in his post.

It matters not to Capehart that Paul did not say the things attributed to him. All that matters to Capehart is that Paul's name was associated with them. If Capehart is looking for racists, he ought to look in the mirror.

Only racists or fools (Capehart is both) can possibly believe that words not even said, are more important than actions!

Nonetheless, I thank Capehart. His article will be seen by thousands, and people will see Capehart for the racist fool he is.

Racist's and fool's minds are already made up. However, everyone else (and this is far more important) will see Ron Paul is not the racist that Capehart portrays him to be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


China to Withdraw Support for Foreign Investment in Autos; Three Reasons China Will Not Be a Boon to Global Auto Sales

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 12:43 PM PST

US and other auto manufacturers banking on increased car sales in China for 2012 have three reasons to be concerned.

  1. Blistering growth in Chinese auto sales is expected to plunge
  2. China is taking efforts to dampen foreign investment in autos
  3. Trade wars

The Wall Street Journal reports China to Damp Foreign Investment in Auto Sector
China will withdraw its support for foreign capital in the country's auto-manufacturing sector in an effort to build up its domestic industry, state media reported late Thursday.

The report from the state-run Xinhua news agency didn't disclose additional details, and it was unclear whether it would impact existing operations by foreign auto makers. U.S. and European auto makers, including General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG, and Japanese auto makers like Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. have long produced cars in the country through joint ventures with local partners.

Foreign auto makers have played a key role as China has shot up to become the world's No. 1 auto market. After blistering growth, auto sales this year are expected to grow no more than 3%, which would total 18.6 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry group.

The report said officials would encourage more foreign investment into environmentally friendly technologies, alternative-fuel cars and other areas with guidelines taking effect Jan. 30. The government will lower foreign restrictions by allowing companies to invest in more sectors and increasing caps on the amount of foreign capital in some areas, the report said.
Clearly China is concerned about growth. So, don't look for efforts by foreign manufacturers to expand production or build new plants in China to be approved.

Moreover, look for tit-for-tat trade wars to heat up in 2012 as noted in China to Impose Anti-Dumping Duties on GM; "Fair Trade" Idea is Self-Serving Scam; Proposal to Stop "Free Sunlight" Gains Support From Mitt Romney.

Should Mitt Romney win the election, expect global trade to collapse in 2013.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Do Blogs Present "News" or "Commentary"? Is there a Difference? Should There Be?

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 10:30 AM PST

Do bloggers present "news" or "commentary"?

The reason I ask is the advertising agency that represents my blog said advertisers were "looking to hear from our publishers on whether or not they break new stories".

Do I break news stories? Is reporting on the news (which is in general what all the economic bloggers do), news in and of itself?

My initial thought was that I comment on the news, not "break news stories". As I look at Calculated Risk, the Big Picture, and even Zero Hedge I would suggest we all primarily comment on the news, although all of us occasionally have major exclusive thoughts.

The criteria, however, which I initially missed was "external news sources crediting my blog".

On that basis, it is crystal clear that Calculated Risk, the Big Picture, Zero Hedge and my blog are news sources. Nonetheless I needed to provide recent citations.

My search turned up many things I was aware of and a few things I was not aware of at all.

Here are some examples I was well aware of in advance.

Known List


Surprise List

I frequently review my hit list as do other bloggers. There are numerous other examples I could cite. I found one big surprise in my search.

Top 10 Blogger Blogs

Please consider the top ten blogspot blogs 2011- blogger powered blogs

The first 9 "blogspot" blogs are Google internal blogs. I was quite surprised to find myself in the list at all. Yet there I am, at #10. I do not know for how long. If Google launches another blog, not long. However, the record shows I did beat out the official Twitter blog and other prominent blogs.
#10 Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.
Alexa Traffic Rank: 18,583 , Links to Site: 3138

Top Financial Blog Citations

  1. New York Times: NYT 10th Annual Year in Ideas - #1 Idea of the Year 'Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics'
  2. Time Magazine: Best 25 Financial Blogs
  3. Bloomberg: Financial Blogs: The Best of the Bunch


Still, I return to the initial question. Do bloggers offer "news" or "commentary"? What does Fox News offer? The Wall Street Journal? LA Times?

Look at recent headlines by Time Magazine, the LA Times, CNN, Huffington Post, the Chicago Tribune, and numerous other places that "Ron Paul Walked Out" of an interview with CNN.

The truth is quite different as noted in Ron Paul Did Not "Walk Out" of CNN Interview; Blatantly Biased Headline by Time Magazine; Six Reasons to Vote for Paul


Much of what is presented as "facts" by major news organizations is in reality an infomercial for a slanted point of view. Furthermore, major news stories headlines frequently do not match the article.

Government data is often questionable, and I would be remiss if I failed to point out Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg PM and Head Euro-Zone Finance Minister famously stated "When it becomes serious, you have to lie". In such cases, even if the news reporting is not purposely slanted, an article itself might be, unbeknown by the writer.

So, is anything really news, or is it all commentary? At least with bloggers, everyone understands the score.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Charts of the Day: European Demand Deposits; Global Equity Performance

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 08:38 AM PST

Here are a couple of charts to consider courtesy of Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark.

European Demand Deposits



Clearly capital flight is taking place in a major way in Greece and an important if relatively minor (for now) way in Italy.

Global Equity Performance



click on chart for sharper image

Don't expect the same degree of out-performance from US equities in 2012.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Mish 2012 Predictions; 2011 Year in Review with Max Keiser

Posted: 29 Dec 2011 01:23 AM PST

Shortly before Christmas I did a video discussion of 2011 with Max Keiser with a look-ahead to a few ideas for 2012.



Link if video does not play: On the Edge with Mish Shedlock

Part of the discussion was a recap of some of my call for 2011 as noted in Mish 2011 Predictions Review

Looking ahead to 2102, I see a continuation of the same themes, but a few new ideas as well.

Ten Themes for 2012

  1. Severe European Recession as the sovereign debt crisis escalates: Austerity measures in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal plunges all of Europe into a major recession. Spain and Portugal will follow Greece into an outright depression.
  2.  
  3. Political Crisis in Europe: French President Sarkozy loses to socialist challenger Francois Hollande. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition collapses. The Merkozy agreement is either modified to do virtually nothing or is not ratified at all. This chain of events will not be good for European equities or European bonds.
  4.  
  5. Relatively Minor US Economic Recession: The US will not avoid a recession in 2012. Retail spending ran its course with the tail-off into Christmas of 2011. The Republican Congress has little incentive for fiscal stimulus measures in 2012 so do not expect any. However, with housing already limping along the bottom in terms of construction and investment (not prices), a US GDP decline will not be severe. The US may see a recession even if GDP barely drops. Certainly the US recession will be far less severe than the recession in Europe and Australia.
  6.  
  7. Major Profit Recession in US: Profit margins in the US will be torn to shreds as businesses will be unable to reduce costs the same way they did in 2008 and 2009 (by shedding massive numbers of employees).
  8.  
  9. Global Equity Prices Under Huge Pressure: Don't expect the same degree of reverse decoupling of US equities we saw in 2011. The US economy will be better than Europe, but equities globally will take a hit, including the US. Simply put, stocks are not cheap.
  10.  
  11. Fiscal Crisis in Japan Comes to Forefront: Japan's fiscal crisis and debt to the tune of 200+% of GDP finally matters. The crisis in Japan will start out as a whimper not a bang, but will worsen as the year wears on. If Japan responds by monetizing debt, not a remote possibility at all, Japanese equities will massively outperform in nominal and perhaps even in real terms. "Real" means "yen-adjusted", not "inflation-adjusted" terms.
  12.  
  13. Few Hiding Spots Other than the US Dollar: US treasuries and German bonds were safe havens in 2011, but with yields already depressed don't expect huge gains. Expect to see a strengthening of the US dollar across the board against all major currencies. Moreover, cash (one the most despised asset classes ever), may outperform nearly everything, even if the dollar goes virtually nowhere. Hiding places will be few and far between for much of 2012.
  14.  
  15. US Public Union Pension Plans Under Attack: States finally realize the need to rein in pension plans much to the dismay of public unions. Social and economic tensions in the US rise.
  16.  
  17. Regime Change in China has Major Ramifications: China will start a major shift from a growth model dependent on housing and infrastructure to a consumer-driven model. The transition will not be smooth. Property prices in China will collapse and commodity prices will remain under pressure.
  18.  
  19. Hyperinflation Calls Once Again Will Look Laughable: Unless there is a major disruption in the Mideast (which I do not rule out by any means), oil prices will drop and food prices will follow. If so, we will once again see silly talk from the Fed about preventing "unwelcome drops in inflation". As always, the deflation key is not prices at all but rather credit and credit marked-to-market. Expect credit in all forms to come under attack and expect junk bonds take a hit as well. By the way, regardless of what happens to oil prices, hyperinflation calls will look silly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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