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luni, 9 ianuarie 2012

Office Hours: Keeping America Competitive

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, January 9, 2012

Office Hours: Keeping America Competitive

Last week, the Commerce Department and the White House sent to Congress the Administration’s plan on keeping America competitive. Today, we're holding a special session of "Office Hours" on Twitter with administration officials to answer your questions about the new report.

Have questions on investing in innovation for economic growth and competitiveness? Ask them now using the hashtag #WHChat. Today, Monday, January 9th at 3:30 p.m. EST, we’ll answer your questions live on Twitter.

Follow today's White House Office Hours on Twitter.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama is briefed by National Security Advisor Tom Donilon before a phone call with King Abdullah II of Jordan in the Oval Office, Jan. 6, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Seth's Blog : Out on a limb

Out on a limb

That's where artists do their work.

Not in the safe places, but out there, in a place where they might fail, where it might end badly, where connections might be lost, sensibilities might be offended, jokes might not be gotten.

If you work with artists, don't saw off the limb. Don't waste a lot of time explaining how dangerous it is, either. No, your job is to quietly support the limb at the same time you egg your team on, pushing them ever further out there.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Dimwit Comment of the Day: Christine Lagarde, IMF Director says "Europe May Avoid a Recession This Year"
Euro Suffers Longest Losing Streak Since 2010; Record High Speculative Short Positions; Big Specs vs. Currency Movements; Not Timing Devices
Iran Starts Uranium Enrichment at Fordo; Joint Chiefs of Staff says Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz; United Arab Emirates Bypass Oil Pipeline Delayed

Dimwit Comment of the Day: Christine Lagarde, IMF Director says "Europe May Avoid a Recession This Year"

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 11:12 PM PST

In what is likely the silliest comment of the year so far, Christine Lagarde says Europe may avoid recession this year

Europe may avoid a recession this year and there were reasons to be more upbeat about prospects for the region, the Business Day newspaper quoted International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Christine Lagarde as saying.

"The euro-zone scene has changed massively over the last 18 months or so ... there are reasons to be a little bit more upbeat about the prospects," she told the daily in an interview conducted during a two-day visit to South Africa.

For my rationale and a blast at a Bloomberg columnist for suggesting the same thing, please see German Factory Orders Drop Most in Nearly 3 Years; Icing On the European Recession Cake.

The idea Germany may avoid a recession is silly enough. The idea Europe may avoid a recession is downright idiotic.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Euro Suffers Longest Losing Streak Since 2010; Record High Speculative Short Positions; Big Specs vs. Currency Movements; Not Timing Devices

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 02:31 PM PST

Bloomberg reports Euro Drops in Longest Losing Streak Since 2010 on Debt Turmoil

The euro fell for a fifth week versus the dollar in its longest losing streak in almost two years on concern Europe's debt crisis is worsening and as data showed the U.S. labor market is strengthening.

The 17-nation currency slid to a record low against the Australian dollar and traded at the weakest level in more than 11 years versus the yen as demand at bond auctions spurred concern European nations will struggle to sell debt. The pound rose to a 15-month high versus the euro before the European Central Bank meets on Jan. 12. Hungary's forint tumbled and Fitch Ratings downgraded the country to junk.

"One of the factors driving the market right now is a general lack of demand for European assets," said Shahab Jalinoos, a senior currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG. "There are enough sources of new bad news to keep the market adapting; all the bad news is not priced in yet."

It was the worst week for Europe's common currency in four months. The euro lost 1.3 percent against nine developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, the most since it dropped 1.9 percent in the five days ended Sept. 2.

Bets Against Euro

Futures traders increased their bets (ECLRG) that the euro will decline against the dollar to a record high. The difference between wagers the shared currency would fall versus those that it would rise -- so-called net shorts -- surged to 138,909 in the week ended Jan. 3, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sterling reached its strongest versus the euro yesterday since Sept. 10, 2010, touching 82.39 pence. It gained 1.1 percent on the week. The pound slipped 0.8 percent to $1.5426.

The euro dropped as France sold 4.02 billion euros ($5.11 billion) of benchmark 10-year notes Jan. 5 at an average yield of 3.29 percent, compared with 3.18 percent at a sale on Dec. 1. The bid-to-cover ratio, the number of bids received for each unit of debt sold, fell to 1.64, from 3.05. Demand at a German auction of 10-year bonds a day earlier was lower than the five- year average. France, Greece, Germany, Italy and Spain are all scheduled to sell debt next week.

Australia's dollar rallied to a record 80.51 euro cents yesterday. It gained for eight consecutive days versus the shared currency, the longest winning streak since December 2010. Against the greenback, the Aussie advanced 0.2 percent on the week to $1.0228.

Record High Euro Shorts

Zero Hedge had a nice chart and some comments in Euro Shorts Surge To New Record High - Is An EC Margin Hike Approaching?

The trend of relentless shorting of the Euro currency in the form of non-commercial spec contracts, and as reported by the Commitment of Traders, continues for one more week. As of January 3, EUR shorts rose by another 9%, hitting an unprecedented 138,909 net contracts short - a fresh all time record. What is curious that unlike previously, when an increase in EUR bearishness implicitly meant a increase in USD bullishness, this time that is no longer the case as net spec USD contracts actually declined, and are trading at relatively subdued levels. Overall, this means that FX specs are not playing relative currencies off each other, but are piling into a global European short.

The position of "large specs" (hedge funds and big traders) is 138,909 short. One needs to add another 27,160 short contracts by "small specs" (small traders), to arrive at a combined net speculative position of 166,069 contracts short.

Since in futures trading everything nets to zero, commercial traders (JP Morgan, etc) are net long a record 166,069.

Big Specs vs. Currency Movements

The above chart from ZeroHedge.

I immediately recognized the shape of the red line in the above chart. Here it is in another place.

$XEU - Euro vs US Dollar.

$XJY - Yen vs US Dollar

Not Timing Devices

Speculative futures positions are not timing devices. Note the bounce in October did not hold as short-covering in Euro contracts by the speculators did not approach the zero-line before reversing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Iran Starts Uranium Enrichment at Fordo; Joint Chiefs of Staff says Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz; United Arab Emirates Bypass Oil Pipeline Delayed

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 08:12 AM PST

Roughly 17 million barrels of crude a day flow through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran has threatened to block the strait if Europe imposes economic sanctions. How credible is that threat?

Joint Chiefs of Staff says Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz

Please consider Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz "for a period of time," and the U.S. would take action to reopen it, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said.

"They've invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz," Dempsey said in an interview airing today on the CBS "Face the Nation" program. "We've invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that."

Should Iran try to close Hormuz, the U.S. "would take action and reopen" the waterway, said Dempsey, President Barack Obama's top military adviser.

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum said Jan. 1 on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he would use air strikes against Iran unless the country dismantled its nuclear program or allowed inspectors to verify that the work isn't aimed at making a weapon.

Dempsey suggested that curbing Iran's nuclear work by bombing its facilities would be difficult.

"I'd rather not discuss the degree of difficulty and in any way encourage them to read anything into that," Dempsey said. "My responsibility is to encourage the right degree of planning, to understand the risks associated with any kind of military option."

Iran Starts Uranium Enrichment at Fordo Mountain Facility

Bloomberg reports Iran Starts Uranium Enrichment at Fordo Mountain Facility

Iran has started to enrich uranium at its Fordo production facility, the official Kayhan newspaper reported without saying where it got the information.

Iran will soon have a ceremony to open the site officially, the newspaper reported, citing the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoun Abbasi. The Iranian nuclear chief was cited yesterday by Mehr News as saying that the underground facility "will start operating in the near future."

The existence of the Fordo plant, built into the side of a mountain near the Muslim holy city of Qom, south of Tehran, was disclosed in September 2009, heightening concern among the U.S. and its allies who say Iran's activities may be a cover for the development of atomic weapons. The Persian Gulf country has rejected the allegation, saying it needs nuclear technology to secure energy for its growing population.

Iran has pressed ahead with its nuclear program even as international pressure increases to prevent the Islamic republic from building an atomic weapon.

The U.S. tightened economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program on Dec. 31, and the European Union is weighing a ban later this month on purchases of Iranian crude.

Iran threatened last month to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for a fifth of oil traded worldwide, if sanctions are imposed on its crude exports in response to its nuclear program.

Hormuz Bypass Oil Pipeline Delayed

United Arab Emirates has been working on an oil pipeline so that its oil will not have to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reports the Hormuz Bypass Oil Pipeline Delayed as Iranian Tensions Mount

A pipeline that would allow oil from the United Arab Emirates to bypass the Strait of Hormuz separating it from Iran has been delayed because of construction difficulties, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

As many as 270 construction issues have pushed back the completion date, said the two people, declining to be identified because they're not allowed to speak publicly on the matter. The $3.3 billion project won't be ready until at least April, one of them said. Abu Dhabi, holder of most of the U.A.E.'s oil reserves, had planned to start exports in January 2011 through the pipeline to a port outside the strait, Dieter Blauberg, the project's former director, said in May 2009.

The 1.5 million barrel-a-day link would ensure the U.A.E. can export crude without risking a blockade at Hormuz, where fully laden tankers exit the Persian Gulf with one-fifth of the world's traded oil. The chance that Iran might try to close the waterway has intensified as Europe prepares to follow tougher U.S. sanctions on the country.

"That pipeline would carry pretty much all of Abu Dhabi's oil," Robin Mills, an analyst at Manaar Energy Consulting in Dubai, said Jan. 5. "It's a critical bit of infrastructure, and it is remarkable it hasn't been completed."

Weeks of Iran tension has added about $10 a barrel to Brent crude prices, said al-Harami, who was head of crude and products marketing at state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. during the 1980s "Tanker War," when Iran and Iraq attacked each other's ships.

Still, a closure of the strait by Iran, in response to opposition to the nation's nuclear program, is not a "high- likelihood event," David Fyfe, head of the International Energy Agency's oil market and industry division, said in a Jan. 4 phone interview from Paris.

War posturing by Iran and the US, as well as economic sanctions by Europe are counterproductive and have undoubtedly increased the price of oil. The simple solution to this mess would be for Iran to admit inspectors to check their facilities and for the US to go along with those inspections.

However, the US has demanded Iran stop all enrichment. The US has no fundamental right to demand that Iran stop enrichment for non-weapons usage.

Addendum: Atoms for Peace

Inquiring minds might be interested in the origins of Iran's nuclear program.

The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program. The support, encouragement and participation of the United States and Western European governments in Iran's nuclear program continued until the 1979 Iranian Revolution that toppled the Shah of Iran.

After the 1979 revolution, the Iranian government temporarily disbanded elements of the program, and then revived it with less Western assistance than during the pre-revolution era. Iran's nuclear program has included several research sites, two uranium mines, a research reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include three known uranium enrichment plants.

After delays, Iran's first nuclear power plant, Bushehr I reactor was complete with major assistance of Russian government agency RosAtom and was officially opened in a ceremony on 12 September 2011. Iran has announced that it is working on a new 360 MW nuclear power plant to be located in Darkhovin. Iran has also indicated that it will seek more medium-sized nuclear power plants and uranium mines in the future. ....

On the question of whether Iran had a hidden nuclear weapons program, the IAEA's November 2003 report states that it found "no evidence" that the previously undeclared activities were related to a nuclear weapons program, but also that it was unable to conclude that Iran's nuclear program was exclusively peaceful.

In August 2005, with the assistance of Pakistan a group of US government experts and international scientists concluded that traces of bomb-grade uranium found in Iran came from contaminated Pakistani equipment and were not evidence of a clandestine nuclear weapons program in Iran. In September 2005, IAEA Director General Mohammad ElBaradei reported that "most" highly enriched uranium traces found in Iran by agency inspectors came from imported centrifuge components, validating Iran's claim that the traces were due to contamination. Sources in Vienna and the State Department reportedly stated that, for all practical purposes, the HEU issue has been resolved.

In late February 2006, IAEA Director Mohammad El-Baradei raised the suggestion of a deal, whereby Iran would give up industrial-scale enrichment and instead limit its program to a small-scale pilot facility, and agree to import its nuclear fuel from Russia. The Iranians indicated that while they would not be willing to give up their right to enrichment in principle, they were willing to consider the compromise solution. However in March 2006, the Bush Administration made it clear that they would not accept any enrichment at all in Iran.

In Resolution 1696 July 31, 2006, the United Nations Security Council demanded that Iran suspend all enrichment and reprocessing related activities.

In February 2007, anonymous diplomats at the atomic energy agency reportedly complained that most U.S. intelligence shared with the IAEA had proved inaccurate, and none had led to significant discoveries inside Iran.

In late October 2007, according to the International Herald Tribune, the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, stated that he had seen "no evidence" of Iran developing nuclear weapons. The IHT quoted ElBaradei as saying "We have information that there has been maybe some studies about possible weaponization. That's why we have said that we cannot give Iran a pass right now, because there is still a lot of question marks ... . But have we seen Iran having the nuclear material that can readily be used into a weapon? No. Have we seen an active weaponization program? No." The IHT report went on to say that "ElBaradei said he was worried about the growing rhetoric from the U.S., which he noted focused on Iran's alleged intentions to build a nuclear weapon rather than evidence the country was actively doing so. If there is actual evidence, ElBaradei said he would welcome seeing it."

In a February 2009 press interview, IAEA Director Mohamed ElBaradei said Iran has low enriched uranium, but "that doesn't mean that they are going tomorrow to have nuclear weapons, because as long as they are under IAEA verification, as long as they are not weaponizing, you know." ElBaradei continued that there is a confidence deficit with Iran, but that the concern should not be hyped and that "many other countries are enriching uranium without the world making any fuss about it".

In explaining why it had left its enrichment program undeclared to the IAEA, Iran said that for the past twenty-four years it has "been subject to the most severe series of sanctions and export restrictions on material and technology for peaceful nuclear technology," so that some elements of its program had to be done discreetly. Iran said the U.S. intention "is nothing but to make this deprivation" of Iran's inalienable right to enrichment technology "final and eternal," and that the United States is completely silent on Israel's nuclear enrichment and weapons program.

The Iranian government has repeatedly made compromise offers to place strict limits on its nuclear program beyond what the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Additional Protocol legally require of Iran, in order to ensure that the program cannot be secretly diverted to the manufacture of weapons. These offers include operating Iran's nuclear program as an international consortium, with the full participation of foreign governments. This offer by the Iranians matched a proposed solution put forth by an IAEA expert committee that was investigating the risk that civilian nuclear technologies could be used to make bombs. Iran has also offered to renounce plutonium extraction technology, thus ensuring that its heavy water reactor at Arak cannot be used to make bombs either. More recently, the Iranians have reportedly also offered to operate uranium centrifuges that automatically self-destruct if they are used to enrich uranium beyond what is required for civilian purposes.

On 26 July 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton explicitly ruled out the possibility that the Obama administration would allow Iran to produce its own nuclear fuel, even under intense international inspection.

If anyone is being unreasonable here, it is the US, UN, and Europe. Not Iran.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

duminică, 8 ianuarie 2012

Seth's Blog : Simple thoughts about fair use

Simple thoughts about fair use

If this is my potato chip, then it's not yours. You can't touch it, eat it or use it for any reason whatsoever, not without asking first. Copyright doesn't work that way.

There is a ying to the yang of copyright protection, and it's called Fair Use. Fair use permits scholars to do their thing, permits those that would do parody or commentary or comparison to be heard. I'm not talking about taking someone's work to make it into a poster or some sort of endorsement--I'm talking about the need for us to be able to comment on each other's work.

Without fair use, it would be impossible to write a negative book review, or compare Shakespeare to the Simpsons. Without fair use, it becomes just about impossible to have a thoughtful discussion about anything that's been published since you were born.

Most web users should know a few simple guidelines, principles so simple that you can generally assume them to be rules. (Worth noting that whether you are in the right or not, a lawyer on retainer can still hassle you--not fair but true):

You don't need to ask someone's permission to include a link to their site.
You don't need to ask permission to include a screen shot of a website in a directory, comment on that site or parody it.
You can quote hundreds of words from a book (for an article or book or on your website) without worrying about it and you certainly don't need a signed release from the original author or publisher. Poems and songs are special exceptions. Then you can worry.

There's a difference between being polite and observing the law. If you quote something (an idea, a notion, a recipe), the right thing to do is give credit.

Photos are a real issue, unless you are clearly commenting on the photo (as opposed to using the photo to make a point that a different photo could make as easily). When in doubt, be the person who took the picture. (Aside: Compfight has an easy to use setting--do a search and hit "commercial" in the left hand column and voila--CC licensed photos, ready to go.)

PS as soon as you make something and fix it in a tangible form, you own the copyright in it. No requirement that you register it with anyone. Putting a © notice is certainly a helpful way to let people know you consider it yours, but the law makes it clear that merely writing your creation down confers copyright to you. And... "all rights reserved" doesn't mean anything any more, just fyi.

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sâmbătă, 7 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fed to Announce Monetary Penalties for Robo-Signing and Unsafe Practices ; Another Whitewashing Move by the SEC

Posted: 07 Jan 2012 11:24 AM PST

The always behind-the-curve Fed seeks to fine mortgage servicers for unsafe practices and robo-signing with an amount dependent on allegedly independent review by consultants.

Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin on Saturday said the Fed must impose monetary penalties on banks who entered into an April agreement with regulators over how to fix problems in their mortgage servicing businesses.

"The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators must impose penalties for deficiencies that resulted in unsafe and unsound practices or violations of federal law," Raskin said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Association of American Law Schools. "The Federal Reserve believes monetary sanctions in these cases are appropriate and plans to announce monetary penalties."

In April, 14 mortgage servicers, including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase entered into a settlement with the Fed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the now defunct Office of Thrift Supervision on steps that have to be taken to correct and improve their servicing practices, such as providing borrowers with a single point of contact for questions.

As part of the agreement, these mortgage servicers have hired consultants to review foreclosures that took place in 2009 and 2010 to see if any were improper.

Regulators have said these reviews will help determine the size of any penalties the servicers will have to pay.

Expect Trivial Penalties, Spread a Mile Wide

Don't expect this announcement to amount to much of anything. Penalties, if any will be trivial and the fines are nearly guaranteed to not benefit those harmed in any substantial way. Instead, expect fines to be spread out to include those not harmed at all.

Another Whitewashing Move by the SEC

Similarly, don't expect much of anything from this feeble announcement: SEC to demand admission of wrongdoing in some cases

Securities regulators will no longer let companies settle civil cases without admitting or denying the charges if they have already admitted wrongdoing in parallel criminal cases.

The policy change, announced by Securities and Exchange Commission Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami on Friday, applies only to instances where a defendant has already admitted to violating criminal laws.

It comes just over a month after a federal judge in New York rejected a proposed $285 million settlement between the SEC and Citigroup, in part because the bank had not admitted to wrongdoing. However, in that case, no parallel criminal charges have been filed.

It seemed "unnecessary" for the SEC to include its traditional "neither admit nor deny" approach if a defendant had already been criminally convicted of the same conduct, Khuzami said.

In one of the most egregious examples, Bernard Madoff pleaded guilty for his role in a multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme in 2009, but neither admitted nor denied the allegations in a settlement with the SEC.

In rejecting the Citigroup accord, U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff said the SEC's failure to require Citigroup to admit or deny its charges left him with no way to know whether the settlement was fair. Rakoff also called the $285 million payout "pocket change" for the third-largest U.S. bank.

The Citigroup settlement was intended to resolve charges that the firm sold risky mortgage-linked securities in 2007 without telling investors that it was betting against the debt.

"My take on things is it is all about managing the press," said James Cox, a professor at Duke Law School. The agency "looked pretty silly before Judge Rakoff the other day," he said.

This policy "non-change" borders on the absurd. The ruling only applies to only to instances where a defendant has already admitted to violating criminal laws. Notice that the ruling does not even apply to the Citigroup case in which a Judge Blasted the the SEC.

"Doesn't the S.E.C. have an interest in what the truth is?" Judge Rakoff asked, in reference to the commission's longstanding practice of not forcing a defendant to admit any wrongdoing when settling a case.

Judge Rakoff called the contempt power — a judge's ability to punish a party for disobeying a court order — "the backbone of the judiciary." He questioned whether the S.E.C. was really serious about ever seeking an injunction against repeat offenders.

"It's just for show," Judge Rakoff said.

"We're not saying that we will never use injunctive relief," said the S.E.C. lawyer.

"Hope springs eternal," the judge replied.

The S.E.C.'s current enforcement action against Citigroup is at least the fifth time that the commission has reached a settlement with the bank related to civil fraud accusations.

SEC Fine vs. Citigroup Gain

Please consider SEC Tired of Fighting Big Banks-Calls Federal Judge Rakoff Refusal to Approve Citigroup Settlement-Shortsighted.

Estimates are that Citigroup made a $3.8 billion profit from the bogus investment portfolio. The investors lost over $700 million. The $285 million offer to settle is a joke. The Judge made clear he would not allow corporations to continue to buy their way out of fraud from "a cost of doing business" fund. The Judge demands the truth to be revealed and the public protected.

Public service is a public trust. Federal employees have a duty to protect the public interest. Apparently, the SEC forgot their duties and the fact that the Court is the final arbiter. The legal team at the SEC that crafted the Citigroup deal need to remember they are federal service not bank employees. It's refreshing to see Judge Rakoff remind government workers who employs them. show.php?db=special&id=138

Rakoff's words to the SEC and big banks has been globally hailed as public policy genius. Thank you Judge Rakoff.

The trial is scheduled for July 16, 2012.

While essentially ignoring billions of dollars in repeated fraud allegations against Citigroup, the SEC brought full weight down on Martha Stewart over (drum roll please) ... $45,673.

Martha Stewart went to prison and was fined $30,000. Since then, no one has gone to prison or even been criminally indicted in $trillions of dollars of fraud in the global financial crisis. And unless someone does admit criminal action, the SEC reserves the right to do more whitewashing without seeking admission of guilt.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

German Factory Orders Drop Most in Nearly 3 Years; Icing On the European Recession Cake

Posted: 07 Jan 2012 12:31 AM PST

It is amusing to see how other writers portray a story vs. what I would say about the same data.

For example, Bloomberg columnist Rainer Buergin reports German Factory Orders Declined Most in Almost Three Years.

Please consider Buergin's interpretation of the story vs. mine. Both follow.

Bloomberg: German factory orders dropped the most in almost three years in November as the euro region economy edged toward a recession and global demand weakened.

Mish: German factory orders dropped the most in almost three years in November as the European recession deepened.

Bloomberg: Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, slipped 4.8 percent from October, when they surged a revised 5 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said in a statement today. That's the biggest drop since January 2009. Economists forecast a decline of 1.8 percent, according to the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Comment: That paragraph is fine.

Bloomberg: While the euro region's sovereign debt crisis has clouded the outlook and cooling global growth is hurting export orders, Europe's biggest economy may still avert a recession.

Mish: The euro region's sovereign debt crisis, coupled with austerity measures and rising taxes in Greece, Spain, Italy, France has clarified the outlook, and it's not pretty. The European recession will be extremely harsh and Germany will not escape.

Bloomberg: Unemployment at a two-decade low is helping to bolster consumer sentiment, service industries expanded in December and business confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month.

Mish: German unemployment at a two-decade low has temporarily helped boost consumer sentiment. In addition, service industries expanded in December and business confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month. However, do not expect those conditions to last. Any notion that Germany will escape a brutal European recession is complete silliness. Indeed, Germany and the entire Eurozone is already in a recession. Conditions will worsen as tax hikes and austerity measures take an enormous toll. Fundamentally, hiking taxes in the midst of a recession is the worst possible thing to do, yet various officials, including Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France are clamoring for still more tax hikes.

Escalating trade wars between France and Spain are icing on the recession cake. For details please see ...
"Social VAT" Trade Wars Heat Up Between Spain and France

Brussels Recommends Sucking Spain Dry with Increased VAT; France to Raise Sales Tax to Protect Jobs; Is There Any Point or Reason for the Eurozone?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Weekly Address: Continuing to Grow the Economy in the New Year

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, January 7, 2012

Weekly Address: Continuing to Grow the Economy in the New Year

President Obama shares his New Year's resolution: doing whatever it takes to move the economy forward and ensure that middle class families regain the security they've lost in the last decade.

Watch the video:

Weekly Wrap-Up

Consumer Watchdog: After appointing Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earlier this week, the President traveled to Shaker Heights, Ohio to talk about his decision -- and the fight to help secure a better future for the middle class. The CFPB is in place to ensure the integrity of the financial system and protect all American consumers from fraud and unfair play. The President said: “See, most people in the financial services industry do the right thing, but they're at a disadvantage if nobody is enforcing the rules. We can't let that happen. Now is not the time to play politics while people’s livelihoods are at stake. Now is the time to do everything we can to protect consumers, prevent financial crises like the one that we’ve been through from ever happening again. That starts with letting Richard do his job.”

Jobs for Youth: ‘We Can’t Wait’ to help young Americans find jobs. The President announced Summer Jobs+, a new initiative that will create internship and job opportunities for America’s young people. It calls for businesses, non-profits and government to work together to provide pathways to employment for low-income and disconnected youth in the summer of 2012. Employers are still signing on to commit jobs to the Summer Jobs+ Bank, a one-stop search tool for youth to access postings from participating employers that is targeted to launch in 60 days.

Military Strategy: The President spoke at the Pentagon Thursday to outline a new global military strategy -- moving away from the expansive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and toward a different posture that emphasizes a new focus for the future. He also reminded us of our duty here at home – to ensure that our troops returning from war receive the care and benefits they deserve. He Said: “We’re also going to keep faith with those who serve, by making sure our troops have the equipment and capabilities they need to succeed, and by prioritizing efforts that focus on wounded warriors, mental health and the well-being of our military families. And as our newest veterans rejoin civilian life, we’ll keep working to give our veterans the care, the benefits and job opportunities that they deserve and that they have earned.”

Year in Photos: From his trip to Ireland to Sasha Obama’s basketball game, the White House photographers have captured it all. Don’t miss some of the most memorable moments from 2011. Check out the slideshow.

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Seth's Blog : I was wrong

I was wrong

In 1993, I saw the web coming. I was hired to write the cover story for a now defunct computer magazine about the internet, and dismissed the new Mosaic browser in a single paragraph.

I figured the web was just like Prodigy, but slower, harder to use and without a business model.

About as expensive a wrong analysis as a single entrepreneur with an email company could make in 1993.

The reason it was an insanely valuable lesson: I got better at announcing that I was wrong, learning from it and doing the next thing.

Politicians, of course, are terrible at this. They are never wrong, apparently, and when they are, spin instead of admitting it. Which not only hurts their trustworthiness, it prevents them from learning anything.

Two elements of successful leadership: a willingness to be wrong and an eagerness to admit it.

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luni, 9 ianuarie 2012

Office Hours: Keeping America Competitive

Seth's Blog : Out on a limb

Out on a limb

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

duminică, 8 ianuarie 2012

Seth's Blog : Simple thoughts about fair use

Simple thoughts about fair use

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sâmbătă, 7 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Weekly Address: Continuing to Grow the Economy in the New Year

Seth's Blog : I was wrong

I was wrong

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