Central Perk

luni, 16 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

65% of Italians Think Euro Made Things Worse for Italy's Economy
Portugal Downgraded to Junk; Bond Yields Soar; Record Spread vs. Germany; Portugal to Follow Greece Into Default Abyss
Greece Dispatches Officials to US Over Default Fears; Senior S&P Official Expects Default Soon; Greek One-Year Bond Yield Touches 415%; Ducks Lined Up for Merkel Orchestrated Default
Timing the End of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy

65% of Italians Think Euro Made Things Worse for Italy's Economy

Posted: 16 Jan 2012 04:48 PM PST

CNBC has some interesting figures on a recent poll in Italy: Majority of Italians No Longer Trust the Euro

65% of those polled thought the introduction of the euro has been more damaging than beneficial for the Italian economy
55% percent of Italians have lost confidence in the euro single currency
Confidence in the European Union stood at 51%, the lowest level in many years
31% said they would prefer a return to the lira

The last bullet point is the odd man out. Expect to see that number rise as Italy heads into a massive recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Portugal Downgraded to Junk; Bond Yields Soar; Record Spread vs. Germany; Portugal to Follow Greece Into Default Abyss

Posted: 16 Jan 2012 12:43 PM PST

Portugal is poised to quickly follow Greece into the default abyss following a debt downgrade to junk status by the S&P on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal reports Portugal's Bond Yields Rise Sharply After Rating Cut To Junk

Portuguese borrowing costs rose sharply Monday as some investors were forced to sell their government bond holdings after Standard and Poor's Corp. downgraded the country to junk status late Friday.

Portugal is now rated as non-investment grade by all three major rating companies. Moody's rates the country at Ba2, Fitch at BB+ and Standard and Poor's at BB.

Non-investment, or junk, bonds have an increased risk of default and pay a higher yield than investment grade bonds to compensate investors for holding the extra risk.

The yield on the two-year and five-year government bonds rose in excess of two percentage points Monday to yield 13.49% and 16.80%, respectively, while the 10-year benchmark rose by just over one and a half percentage points to yield 13.55%, according to data from Tradeweb.

"Now that Portugal is rated as junk by all three agencies, there is forced selling by investors as it [Portugal] is removed from various bond indices and funds," noted one trader familiar with the matter. "It doesn't help that the markets are thin due to the U.S. holiday which makes price movements even more erratic."

Investors are also worried that Portugal may have to follow Greece and re-structure their government debts as they are unable to access the funding market.

The spread between Portugal's government bonds and German bunds hit record levels Monday with the 10-year spread widening by over one and a half percentage points to 1225 basis points.

Portugal 2-Year Government Bonds

Portugal 10-Year Government Bonds

As shown in the above chart, yields continued to rise on Monday, after the WSJ article was written.

Graphs in the above charts are not current, but the summary quotes on the left side of the chart are accurate.

The yield on two-year Portuguese bonds is 15.78 and the 10-year yield is 14.41. Thus, the yield-curve is inverted once again and that is a sign of severe stress.

Given that the Ducks are Lined Up for Greek Default, it's time to look ahead. A Greek default may be priced in, but what about Portugal or Spain?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greece Dispatches Officials to US Over Default Fears; Senior S&P Official Expects Default Soon; Greek One-Year Bond Yield Touches 415%; Ducks Lined Up for Merkel Orchestrated Default

Posted: 16 Jan 2012 10:04 AM PST

A Greek default appears likely soon as Greece Dispatches Officials to US Over Default Fears.

Greece sent senior officials to Washington on Monday for meetings with the International Monetary Fund as it raced against the clock to break a deadlock in debt swap talks that has raised fears of an unruly default.

Barely a month after an injection of bailout funds helped avert bankruptcy, Greece is back at the centre of the euro zone crisis as fears of a default and a subsequent euro zone exit overshadow a mass credit downgrade of euro zone countries.

Cash-strapped Athens needs a deal with the private sector within days to avoid going bankrupt when 14.5 billion euros of bond redemptions fall due in late March.

But Athens is quickly running out of time on the bond swap front. A deal must be sealed before senior inspectors from the EU, IMF and ECB "troika" arrive in Athens at the end of the week to agree details of a second, 130-billion-euro bailout.

Furthermore, an agreement in principle is needed by the end of this week if it is to be finalized in time for the March bond redemptions, Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance who represents Greece's private creditors, told the Financial Times.

Banking sources say Athens is not the problem in the talks, pointing the finger at terms insisted on by the so-called troika of EU, ECB and IMF lenders keeping Greece afloat with aid.

In a bid to resolve the impasse, a government source said the head of Greece's debt agency and a senior adviser were travelling on Monday to Washington to meet IMF officials - just a day before a team of technical experts from the troika arrives in the Greek capital.

One banking source said official sector creditors had asked for a coupon of less than 4 percent, irking banks for whom it would have meant losses of over 75 percent on the bonds.

A second source involved in the discussions said the troika had pushed for a coupon of 2 to 3 percent that banks deemed unacceptable, below the 4 percent level that Greece and France proposed. Banks considered a 4 to 5 percent coupon sustainable for Greece, the source said.

Without a more palatable offer, the level of participation among private creditors could slip to below the level needed to ensure the deal is considered voluntary, the source said.

Senior S&P Official Expects Default Soon

CNBC reports S&P expects Greece to default soon.

Greece will default shortly on its debt obligations, a senior Standard & Poor's official told Bloomberg Television on Monday.

"Greece will default very shortly. Whether there will be a solution at the end of the current rocky negotiations I cannot say," said Moritz Kraemer, the head of the agency's European sovereign ratings unit.

"There is a lot of brinksmanship on and a disorderly default will have ramifications on other countries but I believe policymakers will want to avoid that ... The game is still on."

Greek One-Year Bond Yield Touches 415%

Ducks Lined Up for Merkel Orchestrated Default

The hangup preventing an agreement is the coupon rate. Germany has proposed a 2% coupon rate. That would drive the losses on Greek bonds from 60% to 80%.

Is this a signal that Chancellor Merkel has had enough of bailouts and wants to dump Greece? I think so and talks with the IMF suggest so as well.

I do not really buy the idea that a deal has to be reached within days given bond redemptions are not until late March. It 's easier to believe the IMF and EU need that time to arrange for an orderly as possible Greek return to the drachma.

It's possible of course that a deal is worked out, but it seems Germany and the IMF have had enough with Greece and the S&P is preparing everyone for the inevitable.

The ducks are lined up for default. All it takes is for creditors to refuse a coupon rate of 2% and the accompanying 80% losses (soon to be 100% losses) for anyone without Credit Default Swap (CDS) protection.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Timing the End of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy

Posted: 16 Jan 2012 12:53 AM PST

Neither German Chancellor Angela Merkel nor French President Nicolas Sarkozy is likely to survive the European sovereign debt crisis.

The timing of the demise of Sarkozy is easy to predict. Polls suggest he will be not win the May 6 election and he might not even survive the first round of voting on April 22. Please see "Let the Euro Die" Candidate Trails Sarkozy by Slight 2 Percentage Points; Will Sarkozy Survive the First Round Vote? Eurozone About to Become Unglued

The timing of the demise of chancellor Merkel is more problematic. Technically, her splintering coalition could fracture beyond repair at any time as a series of articles in Der Speigel suggests.

January 6
Merkel's Coalition Partner on the Road to Collapse

Germany's Free Democrats have been in freefall for months. But on Friday, the party, Chancellor Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner, hit a new low. Inner-party bickering led to the collapse of a state government and a new poll found that just 2 percent of Germans would vote for the FDP today.

Some 83 percent of those asked said that the FDP has not delivered on its promises. A further 72 percent say that it isn't clear where the party stands when it comes to the euro crisis. Just 15 percent of Germans think the party is credible.

It is a situation which has not made things easier for Chancellor Merkel. The FDP's periodic hand-wringing over Germany's outsized role in bailing out struggling euro-zone countries has occasionally led to speculation that her coalition could collapse prematurely. Furthermore, she has periodically provided some legislative concessions in an attempt to breathe some life into the moribund party.

Mostly, though, it is a situation that seems to indicate that Germany's party landscape no longer has room for the FDP. After all, even the Pirate Party, which focuses almost exclusively on Internet privacy issues, is doing better than the once mighty FDP. The Pirates managed 6 percent in Friday's poll -- numbers that the current FDP could only dream of.

January 9
Confidence Wanes in FDP Leader Rösler

Despite efforts to breathe new life into their faltering message, Free Democratic Party leader Philipp Rösler could be forced to step down soon. Should he fall, Chancellor Merkel could lose much more than a key political partner. Her entire cabinet could face a significant reshuffle.

January 9
Scandal 'Could Mean the End of Merkel's Government'

German President Christian Wulff refuses to step down amid a scandal involving a threatening phone call to a major newspaper and dodgy business dealings. German commentators warn that his resignation could cause Angela Merkel's government to collapse.

The scandal surrounding Christian Wulff gets murkier by the day, but the German president is refusing to resign from the largely ceremonial position, despite growing calls for him to quit. On Monday, his lawyer even went on the offensive.

At the crux of the affair is a message that Wulff left on the voicemail of Kai Diekmann, editor in chief of the powerful tabloid Bild, on Dec. 12. The newspaper claims that Wulff wanted to prevent the publication of a damaging story about a private loan that Wulff took out. Many Germans regard Wulff's alleged threats as an attack on press freedom. For his part, Wulff insists that he only wanted to delay the publication of the story. In a high-profile television interview last week, Wulff admitted he had made a "serious mistake" by phoning Diekmann but denied he had considered resigning.

Last week, Bild said it wanted to publish the actual message as support for its version of events, but asked Wulff for his permission to make the voicemail public. The president denied the request. But on Monday, Wulff's lawyer, Gernot Lehr, said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk public radio that the president was not afraid of the message being published. If Bild "wants to do so, then let them," he said. "It is Bild's business if they want to break this taboo."

In its new issue, published Monday, SPIEGEL printed lengthy extracts from the message, after obtaining a transcript. According to the transcript, Wulff did indeed ask the newspaper to delay the publication of the story. He also, however, threatened to take legal action, which observers see as a clear attempt to stop the article's publication.

Parts of the German political establishment have already turned to the question of what will happen if Wulff steps down. On Sunday, the leader of the opposition center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), Sigmar Gabriel, offered Chancellor Angela Merkel help in a possible search for a successor. He said if the parties could agree on a joint candidate then the SPD would not put forward its own candidate. Merkel would probably be dependent on opposition votes in the Federal Assembly, the specially convened body that elects the German president, if it came to an election. The chancellor narrowly avoided a debacle in 2010, when her handpicked candidate Wulff needed three rounds of voting to get elected, despite the government's majority in the assembly.

"So what can she do? With her coalition holding an extremely thin majority of a maximum of four votes in the Federal Assembly, putting forward another candidate to replace Wulff would be risky. This would hold particularly true if the opposition Social Democrats and Greens were to put their former candidate Joachim Gauck, who lost to Wulff in 2010 but is widely respected, back in the running. A defeat in the struggle for Germany's highest office in 2012 would send a major symbolic message for the loss of power in Merkel's coalition government. Together with the collapse of the 'Jamaica' coalition in Saarland (comprised of the CDU, the FDP and the Greens), the general withering of the FDP and the possibility of a CDU defeat in state elections in Schleswig-Holstein in May, a formidable political headwind could form that the chancellor would then have to fight during the next federal election in 2013."

January 12
German President Blasted by Party Allies

German President Christian Wulff promised transparency in a television interview last week regarding questions about his personal finances. But since then, he hasn't delivered. Several members of Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democrats, the party which propelled Wulff into office, have turned on him.

CDU parliamentarian Karl-Georg Wellmann [suggested] Wulff should resign. "A horrible end is better than horror without end," Wellmann said, in reference to the likelihood that criticism will continue to dog Wulff if he clings to his office. "My personal advice to him would be to no longer subject himself, his family and his office to (the condemnation)."

Several other CDU politicians likewise have heaped censure on the German president this week, including powerful conservative parliamentarian Peter Altmaier, a close ally of Merkel. And Bundestag President Norbert Lammert, a senior CDU member, complained in newsmagazine Stern of the "massive, comprehensive loss of trust" in the president.

"On television, Wulff promised 18 million citizens that 450 questions would be answered and made public," Björn Thümler, CDU floor leader in the Lower Saxony state parliament, told the Norwest Zeitung newspaper. "I think we are all waiting for that and that is what must happen. There is no alternative."

As of Thursday, Wulff had not budged. Instead, he stood for hours before television cameras greeting his some 80 visitors. Not all, however, accepted his invitation to the new year's reception. Transparency International stayed away, as did the German Journalists Association. In protest.

Merkel's junior coalition partner is burnt toast and clearly she has other political problems as well. Moreover, Europe is heading into a massive recession and Germany will not be immune. Can she keep a working coalition intact until the 2013 election? I rather doubt it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Posted: 16 Jan 2012 05:55 PM PST

Who lays claim to the world's most popular heritage sites, theme parks, museums and national wonders? TravelSupermarket has developed an infographic outlining the top 50 most popular travel destinations, providing a snapshot into global travel trends, and answering the question "Where in the world is everyone going?"

Click on Image to Enlarge.

A Linkbuilder's Gmail Productivity Setup (with Outreach Emails from 4 Industry Linkbuilders)

Posted: 15 Jan 2012 12:55 PM PST

Posted by dohertyjf

Because linkbuilding is hard, we all look for ways to make the process less painful and our outreach more effective. I constantly struggled with how to make my job more effective when working in-house, and since coming to Distilled I have had to become even more of a productivity ninja in order to keep up with the fast pace of an agency.

The goal of today's post is to teach you some ninja ways that will markedly increase the speed of sending linkbuilding emails, as well as help you provide context to them with the goal of increasing your response rate.

A quick note: These tips I am showing today apply to people who use Gmail as their email provider. There are probably similar tools available for other programs like Outlook. So take the principles applied here, suit them to your needs, and then share the knowledge!

Gmail Tools and Tips

Let's look at some Gmail tools, tips, and tricks that can improve your productivity.

Gmail Shortcuts

Gmail shortcuts are a linkbuilder or email productivity ninja's best friend. Once enabled in Labs, you have a whole wealth of shortcuts to use so that you never have to touch your mouse, unless you need to edit text or do something like inserting a canned response (see below). You'll find that shortcuts tend to eliminate many superfluous steps, and when used in combination with the other tools mentioned, you can drastically speed up your email processing time.

The most important shortcuts are, in my opinion:

C - compose a new message
E - archive a message
G then I - return to inbox from a message
R - reply to a message
A - reply all to a message
F - forward the message
J - when in your inbox, move to the next message
K - when in your inbox, move to the previous message
X - when in your inbox, mark an email. Most useful when processing out emails that don't require any attention (such as daily emails).

You should think about shortcuts as "recipes" of sorts. Use them in combination, like Tab+Enter for sending, J+X+E for archiving messages in your inbox, or R+message+tab+enter for responding to a message. String them together, and you'll be more awesome.

For a complete list of Gmail shortcuts, go here

Pro tip: Combine this with Send and Archive (mentioned below) to take your processing to the next level.

Canned Responses

Canned responses are something that our New York Sales Exec Ron Garrett recently introduced me to. Another Labs tool, it allows you to save email templates to use so that you are not constantly copying and pasting from one source to another, risking making a mistake.

As you can see in the image below, it installs a "Canned Responses" button right under the Subject field. This is where you can save drafts of canned responses for quick access.

Here is how a canned email might look if I was sending an email to Tom Critchlow:

Pro tip: Highlight the text to change in yellow so that you make sure to insert all relevant information.

Also, make sure you check out some example linkbuilding emails from some industry experts at the bottom of this post.

Rapportive

Rapportive is a Gmail plugin that I've been hyping recently, because it's so freakin awesome. The idea is simple, but the outcome is powerful.

After you download it from Rapportive.com and install into Gmail, the box will appear on the right side of your screen when you go to compose a new email. The Rapportive feature that makes it so powerful for linkbuilding and connecting with others is the social features.

You can see many different ways for you to connect with, or build rapport with (see what I did there?), your email contact. You can even connect with them, such as sending a LinkedIn invitation, directly from within Rapportive.

BOOM.

Check out all the options I get when I go to email Ross:

Pro tip: Use Rapportive to help you find contact emails. If you are not sure of the combination of their company's email (john.doherty, john-doherty, jdoherty, dohertyj, for example), try different combinations. When you hit the right one, their information will appear :-)

Boomerang

Boomerang is a Gmail plugin that I found via Napoleon Suarez. After you install, a little "Boomerang" icon will appear in your Gmail screen and a Send Later button will appear on every email you go to send. When expanded, it looks like this:

The really powerful features of Boomerang are:

Send emails at a designated time (ie you write an email at 2am on Saturday night. Set it to send at 9am on Monday so it doesn't look like you are working at 2am on Saturday night)
Send an email back to the top of your inbox at a later point in the day (I do this with emails that I want to respond to at a designated email time later in the day).
Send the message back to you if you don't hear back within a set amount of time (great for recontacting people you emailed about links).

I'd love to hear other ways you find to use Boomerang as well!

FYI - Boomerang is also available for Outlook! Also, you receive a certain number of Boomerangs per month, and then it moves to a paid service. If I was doing more link outreach, I definitely think the paid service would be worth the money, but at this point I have never hit my max.

Undo Send

Another awesome Labs tool that is handy to have around is Undo Send. What it does is allow you a time buffer (I believe 5 seconds) to recall an email before it sends.

Once you send the email, you will be returned to your email but this little box will show up:

Pro tip: To avoid sending an email early, even with this tool, don't put the recipient's name in the To: field until you're done. After you've completed your email, use the Shift+tab combination twice to return to the To: field. Insert the email, tab three times, and Send and Archive.

Send and Archive

The final Gmail productivity ninja tip I have for you is the Send and Archive Labs tool. Once installed, a Send and Archive button appears on your Compose screen. If you're an InboxZero nut (like most of Distilled), then you're already excited by this.

Here's a screenshot of the button:

Now, when you have finished composing an email and you are ready to send it, simply Tab from your message and press Enter.

Boom! Email sent and the message is now out of your inbox. You've just eliminated the step of archiving the message after the fact. Go and do something awesome.

Pro tip: Just install and use it. Nothing more to be said.

Linkbuilding Email Templates from Industry Linkbuilders

I emailed some friends to ask for some examples of actual link request emails that they have sent to prospective link partners. The following are those examples. Please note that these are drafts, and emails should always be as customized as possible to the recipient.

Broken Linkbuilding

Ross Hudgens is the SEO Manager at Full Beaker, a lead-gen focused SEO company outside Seattle. Ross responded to my email with this gem of a broken link email that he sends to people when asking to be included on their list, but wants to provide them value by helping them out with some links broken on their site. Here's the email:

Hello NAME, I was browsing through your site/links as a NICHE SPECIFIC DESCRIPTION myself, and they're great. ONE/TWO SENTENCES TAILORED TO SAID WEBSITE.

I'm contacting you specifically because I was looking through your links and I noticed a few broken ones - specifically to BROKEN LINK1, BROKENLINK2. Other than that you've got a great list!

I have two more suggestions for sites that were extremely helpful to me as a NICHE SPECIFIC DESCRIPTION might make good additions to your list - GREATRESOURCE and MYWEBSITE. GREATRESOURCE is a comprehenshive and entertaining resource and MYWEBSITE has some great tips for NICHESPECIFIC DETAIL. Just a thought.

Anyways, just wanted to let you know and say thanks - have a great new year!

Regards,

EMAIL NAME

Notice how he has put information to change in CAPS so as not to forget to change a field. Boom!

Guest Posting

This email comes from Distilled SEO Geoff Kenyon, who works in our Seattle office. Geoff has been killing it for his clients for a while now, so I asked him for an example of what he sends to people. He came back with this example of a templated email sent to people for guest posts.

Hey NAME,

I saw that you're the THEIR POSITION over at THEIR COMPANY and I wanted to get in touch. I've seen guest contributions before on the TOPIC blog and wanted to know if you were open to any more guest contributions. I am looking to write about something related to NICHE and thought that the topics I had in mind may go well on the TOPIC blog.

I was thinking about the following subjects:

IDEA 1
IDEA 2
IDEA 3

What do you think about these? If you're interested, I am happy to get something written up and sent over to you - or if you have another topic you'd like to see covered, I am more than happy to write on that.

Thanks,

NAME

Note: Do not mass email a ton of people your content ideas, but customize them per person. Also, don't mass email. Send emails one at a time. It doesn't scale easily, but it's more effective. Also, don't send emails like this to high-level contacts. Those MUST be totally personalized.

PR

This next example comes from Paul May over at Buzzstream, which is a linkbuilding CRM tool that we use and love at Distilled. Paul sent me this example of an email they sent out during their most recent launch. I think it's a great mix of professional and personal with a lot of detail.

I especially love the "Pick your poison ;)" part!

Hi ,

Don't know if you remember me, but I've commented on a number of your blog posts and we've written a couple of posts on the (YOUR COMPANY) blog that continued discussions you'd started (I think the TOPIC post was the most recent one). I wanted to reach out to you about YOUR COMPANY, the PR/SEO startup I co-founded.

We're now preparing to launch (DATE) and I wanted to see if we could setup a time to brief you on it. QUICK BACKGROUND ABOUT YOUR COMPANY. WHY YOUR COMPANY IS GREAT.

Here’s the gist. You can:

SELLING POINT 1
SELLING POINT 2
SELLING POINT 3

Launch is happening DATE. We’d love to find some time to show the thing to you. Are you comfortable with an embargo until TIME a.m. ET on DAY, DATE (i.e. late Monday night PT)? If so, here are some suggested times...pick your poison ;)

TIME OPTION 1
TIME OPTION 2
TIME OPTION 3

Thanks in advance.

Regards, NAME

Push Content

This final example comes from Mike Essex at Koozai in the UK. Mike shared this example email that he sends to people when they are pushing out content that they have created, to help generate a buzz. In Mike's own words: "The first method I use is to find content that we have, which could be relevant to other websites and then I get in touch with them to ask them to link or continue to debate the issue. This works well as it gives them a reason to link, and an opportunity to add new content to their websites." Here's the example:

Hi NAME,

ONE OR TWO SENTENCES ABOUT THE PURPOSE OF THE EMAIL AND WHY YOU CREATED THE CONTENT. ALSO, WHY THEY SHOULD CARE ABOUT THE CONTENT.

The guide can be found at LINK and I’d love if you could share this with your readers and help make them aware of THE POINT OF THE RESOURCE, and how they can help. If you need any further information please let me know.

NAME

Exchange for a link (but not a link exchange)

This next email comes from Allie Brown at SEER Interactive. Linkbuilding used to be all about link exchanges. I give you a link, you give me a link, everyone's happy. Those days are over, so we either have to create content for people to link to, or you offer someone something in return (but not a link). That's what I like about this email from Allie.

Hi NAME,

My name is Allie and I work with [Client] online marketing team.

First, I have to thank you for repeatedly featuring [Client] on [your blog name]. The [client] team truly loves it when their customers share their favorite looks with others on their personal blogs.

Secondly, I wanted to see if you would be interested in linking to [Client] the next time you feature one of their products. I noticed that you often mention us in your "XYZ" posts and I want to propose an idea that I think we could both benefit from.

In exchange for linking to [Client], we'd like to post a Tweet about your blog sometime within the next week. As you may know, we have over x followers, so the opportunity for exposure is pretty grand. You'd also be helping our team out by sending your readers directly to our site when they see a product they like.

Let me know if you're interested in this idea, and hopefully we can find some way to work together!

Thanks again for all your support and Happy New Year!

Incentivized Reviews for Ecommerce

This email template comes from Abbott Shea, also from SEER. This email proposes some free product in exchange for someone leaving a review. It provides a lot of detail and adds value to the recipient.

Subject: Merrrrrrry Christmas! Wait, too early....?

Body:

Hi [Name],

My name is Abbott, and I work with [client] web promotions team. I came across [blog name] and wanted to see if you were interested in working with us. Our site, [client] has over 48,000 custom [product] designs across 113 categories. We were inspired by [something about their site], and seeing as how you love the holidays just as much as we do we'd like to provide you with 5 free Christmas cards for a product review on [URL].

You can either design these cards yourself with your own photos and text or select one from our already pre-designed cards - regardless we'll be crediting you with free shipping. Please let me know if you are interested in this idea or if you have any suggestions of how we can collaborate on something else. I look forward to hearing from you!

Take care,

Abbott

I hope this post has been helpful to you! I'd love to hear any more email productivity tips that you have, especially for people using Outlook as that has not been talked about much in this post.

Also, don't forget that Distilled is running our annual linkbuilding conference called Linklove in London and Boston in March and April. Don't miss it!

Cheers!

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Seth's Blog : Straight up

Straight up

"Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. And so we must straighten our backs and work for our freedom. A man can't ride you unless your back is bent."

Martin Luther King, Jr.

And a few more thoughts, from one of the greatest men of my lifetime:

"On some positions, Cowardice asks the question, "Is it safe?" Expediency asks the question, "Is it politic?" And Vanity comes along and asks the question, "Is it popular?" But Conscience asks the question "Is it right?" And there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must do it because Conscience tells him it is right."

. . .

"We must rapidly begin the shift from a "thing-oriented" society to a "person-oriented" society. When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered."

. . .

"The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority."

• Email to a friend •

duminică, 15 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Merkel Denies Need for EFSF to be AAA Rated; German CEOs Ponder Dumping the Euro for a "North-Euro" or Deutschmark; Schaeuble Rejects ECB as Lender of Last Resort
Japan's Prime Minister Seeks Doubling National Sales Tax; S&P Downgrade of Japan Likely; No Winning Play for Japan
"Let the Euro Die" Candidate Trails Sarkozy by Slight 2 Percentage Points; Will Sarkozy Survive the First Round Vote? Eurozone About to Become Unglued

Merkel Denies Need for EFSF to be AAA Rated; German CEOs Ponder Dumping the Euro for a "North-Euro" or Deutschmark; Schaeuble Rejects ECB as Lender of Last Resort

Posted: 15 Jan 2012 04:17 PM PST

With every passing day, there is increased chipping away of support for the Euro. Please consider Linde CEO says Germany should mull euro exit

Germany should consider leaving the euro if efforts to impose fiscal discipline upon indebted euro zone countries fail, the head of industrial gases firm Linde told German weekly paper Der Spiegel.

"If we do not succeed in disciplining crisis countries, Germany needs to exit," said Reitzle who was previously a board member at carmaker BMW and head of Jaguar and Land Rover.

Asking Germans to pay more than 50 percent taxes to help fund other euro zone countries will erode the will of the German electorate to support rescue measures, Reitzle said.

Of course it would lead the new currency - Deutschmark, North-euro or whatever it is called - to appreciate in value. But it would be by a lesser amount than feared," Reitzle said.

"In the medium term Greece needs to exit. And the writedowns on Greek debt will not be between 50 to 70 percent, but in the end will be written down by 100 percent," Reitzle said.

Merkel Denies Need for EFSF to be AAA Rated

Following the rating agency downgrades of numerous European countries especially France and Austria (please see S&P Says Eurozone Policies Fall Short , France at Risk of Further Downgrades for details), close to 75 percent of the burden to ensure the euro bailout fund EFSF retained its AAA rating is on the back of Germany. Prior to the downgrade, German backing was 40%.

True to political form, Merkel downplayed the significance of the downgrade with a statement "I was never of the opinion that the EFSF necessarily has to be AAA".

Well it certainly doesn't "have to be" but what interest rates does one want, and how much German backstop does one want? Those are the critical questions.

Pressure Mounts on Merkel

As a result of the downgrades, pressure on Merkel mounts in numerous ways.

Der Spiegel discusses the situation in France Downgrade Creates Pressure for Merkel

Following the decision by rating agency Standard & Poor's to downgrade the ratings for nine euro-zone countries, pressure is likely to increase on Germany, the country long viewed as a model during the crisis, but also the one that holds much of the money that is needed to solve it.

In its decision on Friday, S&P stated that Germany's rating is in excellent condition, but experts in the country fear that Berlin's contributions to the euro bailout will have to be considerably greater than initially planned. And Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) said the downgrade of the nine countries will increase pressure for all the euro-zone countries to solve their budget and debt problems.

Frank Schäffler, the finance policy spokesman for the Free Democratic Party (FDP), Merkel's junior coalition partner, said he felt his criticism of Germany's participation in the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the current euro bailout fund, had been indirectly confirmed by S&P. He said the downgrading was likely to have direct consequences for Berlin. The downgraded rating for Austria alone, he told the financial daily Handelsblatt, would mean that "Germany would no longer just have to carry 40 percent, but close to 75 percent (of the burden) to ensure the euro bailout fund EFSF retained its AAA rating."

He said the current German guarantee of €211 billion would no longer be sufficient in order to achieve the volume of aid that had been originally planned. "Over time, that will also impose a burden on the German rating," the FDP politician warned, saying that the "socialization of losses" through the bailout fund could not go on forever.

But during her press conference on Saturday, Merkel sought to downplay worries about the ratings loss. "I was never of the opinion that the EFSF necessarily has to be AAA," Merkel said. "AA+ is also not a bad rating." She added that the "work of the EFSF will not be torpedoed" by the downgrade.

In France, the euro-zone's second-largest economy, the opposition has taken the downgrade as an opportunity -- coming as it does three months before the French go to the polls to elect their next president -- to sharply attack President Nicolas Sarkozy. Francois Hollande, the Socialist Party's (PS) candidate for president, accused the government of failure. "Nicolas Sarkozy declared the triple-A rating to be the goal of his politics and also a condition for his government," the politician said during a press conference in Paris.

S&P now considers the outlook to be negative for 14 countries, even if some managed to escape a downgrade this time. Besides Germany, Slovakia is the only other country in the euro zone with a stable outlook, according to S&P.

Schaeuble Rejects ECB as Lender of Last Resort

Bloomberg reports Schaeuble Rejects ECB as Lender of Last Resort.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble renewed his rejection of joint euro region bond sales and said giving the European Central Bank the role of lender of last resort wouldn't calm markets permanently.

"If the central bank finances government debt, it's a modern form of the old bad habit that if the government doesn't have enough money, it prints money," Schaeuble said today in Berlin. "If we start doing this, markets will calm down for some time. But then they realize that the European currency is not a stable currency" in the long run.

Selling government bonds jointly in the euro region isn't a solution to the euro region's debt crisis because it would mean that governments "can pile up debt without being liable for it," Schaeuble also said in Berlin after attending the screening of a documentary on the region's woes.

"We wouldn't solve the problem," Schaeuble said, referring to joint bond sales and relying on the central bank to finance state debt. "The countries must reduce their debts. We can talk about the speed at which this has to be achieved."

Joke of the Day

While I certainly agree with Schaeuble regarding Eurobonds. I also agree that "giving the European Central Bank the role of lender of last resort wouldn't calm markets permanently".

However, Schaeuble comments are tantamount to the "joke of the day. The ECB is without a doubt already the lender of last resort if not the lender of "only" resort.

Were it not for the 3-year LTRO with the ECB accepting dodgy collateral for cash, interest rates in Spain and Italy would be soaring. Instead, Germany is on the hook.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Japan's Prime Minister Seeks Doubling National Sales Tax; S&P Downgrade of Japan Likely; No Winning Play for Japan

Posted: 15 Jan 2012 10:18 AM PST

In an effort to halt expansion of Japan's massive public debt, Japan's Prime Minister Seeks Doubling National Sales Tax.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said containing Japan's public debt load, the world's largest, is critical after Standard & Poor's downgraded credit ratings on France, Austria and seven other European nations.

Europe's fiscal situation "isn't a house burning on the other side of the river," Noda said on TV Tokyo Holdings Corp.'s program on Jan. 14. "We must have a great sense of crisis."

Noda reshuffled his cabinet last week, aiming to win support for doubling Japan's 5 percent national sales tax by 2015 to trim the soaring debt. S&P said in November Noda's administration hadn't made progress in tackling the public debt burden, an indication the credit-rating company may be preparing to lower the nation's sovereign grade.

Japan's government, which has enjoyed borrowing costs that are around 1 percent, wouldn't be able to manage its finances if bond yields surged to 3 percent, Noda said last week. The country risks seeing a spike in government bond yields unless it controls a debt load set to approach 230 percent of gross domestic product in 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Nov. 28.

'Worse and Worse'

Japan's finances are "getting worse and worse every day, every second," Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign ratings at S&P, said in an interview on Nov. 24. Asked if this means he's closer to lowering Japan's credit rating, he said it "may be right in saying that we're closer to a downgrade."

S&P rates Japan AA- and has had a negative outlook on the rating since April. Ogawa said Japan needs a "comprehensive approach" to containing its debt burden, which the government has projected will exceed 1 quadrillion yen ($13 trillion) in the year through March as the nation pays for reconstruction costs from March's record earthquake.

The International Monetary Fund has said a gradual increase of Japan's sales tax to 15 percent "could provide roughly half of the fiscal adjustment needed to put the public-debt ratio on a downward path."

No Winning Play for Japan

If Japan hikes taxes and reduces spending, the Yen will strengthen, and Japanese exports sink.

Demographics and balance of trade issues suggest there will still be insufficient buyers of Japanese bonds that need to be rolled over. Raising taxes in a global recession is not a wise thing to do as it will inhibit growth.

On the other hand, if Japan turns to printing, which I believe it eventually will, Japan would likely go into an inflation spiral.

Massive Debt Rollover Problem

Country	2012 Bond, Bill Redemptions ($)	Coupon Payments
Japan	3000 billion	117 billion
U.S.	2783 billion	212 billion
Italy	428 billion	72 billion
France	367 billion	54 billion
Germany	285 billion	45 billion
Canada	221 billion	14 billion
Brazil	169 billion	31 billion
U.K.	165 billion	67 billion
China	121 billion	41 billion
India	57 billion	39 billion
Russia	13 billion	9 billion

For a discussion of the global debt rollover problem, please see World's Biggest Economies Face $7.6T Debt Led by Japan $3 trillion, U.S. $2.8 trillion; Rollover Problems in Japan and Europe

There are no winning plays for Japan, given a debt load set to hit 230 percent of gross domestic product. The US would be advised to pay attention.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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"Let the Euro Die" Candidate Trails Sarkozy by Slight 2 Percentage Points; Will Sarkozy Survive the First Round Vote? Eurozone About to Become Unglued

Posted: 14 Jan 2012 11:41 PM PST

As a refresher course in French politics, presidential elections are a two-stage process. In the first round, voters select from candidates of all the political parties. The second round pits the top two vote getters against each other.

Never before in history has a sitting French president polled so low 100 days before the first round of votes.

Link if video does not play: 100 days to presidential poll

The video is as of January 13. The first round of elections is April 22, 2012. Here is the pertinent snip.

"Sarkozy's ratings compared to previous presidents make grim readings. Sarkozy is not shown leading the first round of voting. We've never seen a president is such a weak position in terms of public opinion. If polls are to believed come May 6, the country will have a new head of state"

"Let the Euro Die" Candidate Trails Sarkozy by Slight 2 Percentage Points

Bloomberg reports Sarkozy Just Ahead of Le Pen in French Presidency Election Poll.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is just two percentage points ahead of anti-immigration candidate Marine Le Pen less than four months before the presidential election, an Ifop poll for Paris Match showed.

In the first round, to be held April 22, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande would finish first with 27 percent, followed by Sarkozy with 23.5 percent and National Front candidate Le Pen on 21.5 percent, the poll published today showed today.

The top two vote getters then go to a decisive run-off on May 6, in which Hollande would beat Sarkozy 57 percent to 43 percent, according to the poll. Ifop polled 943 voters Jan. 9- 12. No margin of error was given.

Will Sarkozy Survive the First Round Vote?

Bloomberg reporter Gregory Viscusi depicts Le Pen as "anti-immigration". Yes, that is true. However, Viscusi failed to mention Le Pen's main claim to fame.

Le Pen is running on a platform to "Let the Euro Die" as I commented on September 8, 2011.

See link for Le Pen's comments. This is what I said at the time.

German Chancellor Merkel, Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero, Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi, and Greek President George Papandreou will all be gone after the next set of elections.

French President Nicholas Sarkozy may bite the dust as well, and if he does it may be to a vehemently anti-Euro candidate.

All it takes is one government to say "to hell with this" and the whole mess unravels.

The current set of politicians all want to "save the Euro". But what did the Euro buy Greece, Ireland, Spain, or Portugal except misery?

Even German and Finnish voters wonder what it bought them.

Zapatero, Berlusconi, and Papandreou are now gone. You can kiss Merkel and Sarkozy goodbye as well.

Le Pen would not likely win a runoff with Hollande. Socialists dominate French politics. However, Sarkozy will not survive and Hollande has vowed to rework the Merkel-Sarkozy agreement.

Think that is going to fly? In what timeframe?

Eurozone About to Become Unglued

All of the agreements hammed out by two arrogant but tough-as-nails and widely respected leaders of Germany and France will fail. Whoever replaces Merkel and Sarkozy will not have the same respect and both will soon be gone.

Politics suggests that the Eurozone is about to become unglued.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : The play by play and the color commentary

The play by play and the color commentary

One of the tropes of broadcast sports is the partnership of the guy describing what's happening on the field (an artifact from radio) and the guy doing color commentary, riffing on the why of what happened and predicting what might happen next (heavy on the cliches).

Most of us have both of those voices in our head.

If your play by play announcer is doing a poor job of accurately describing the world as it is, it's worth taking a hard look at how often that's happening and whether it's pushing you to make poor decisions.

The color commentary is a bigger issue: Is the constant whining/bragging/doom and gloom or blaming the voice does helping you do better work? It's suprising to me that you can watch a successful person at work and not realize that her inner voice is congratulating her all day (or cutting her down). That voice likes to take credit for being accurate and important, but it rarely is.

If the voice isn't affecting your work, then it's a waste of time, a distraction, and worthy of extinguishing. On the other hand, if it's helping you do better, bring it on.

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