Central Perk

joi, 19 ianuarie 2012

Never Worry About an Algorithm Update Again, a History

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 12:54 PM PST

A few months ago at a keynote I asked people to embrace the HARD work of building a business [video]. We all fall in love with the concept of the four hour work week, don’t we...how can I make money and work less, right? Who wouldn't. It’s natural.

The hard part is that almost every SEO I know who has a natural focus on scale has burned a more than their fair share of sites or clients in their career. There is just a mentality that comes along with the "scalable SEO", and it brings risks and baggage to many projects. I want to start getting people to think differently. If you can check out Bob Rains’ presentation from Distilled’s Search Love conference - (yes you have to pay, it's worth it) on why he’s turning white hat, you’ll get it. Scalable SEO is becoming HARDER work than you think and he's turning from Blackhat to White-ish. :)

Embracing the hard work, the time consuming, foundational building blocks needed to build almost any sustainable business (notice I am not saying a sustainable SEO strategy, I am talking about a sustainable business) is the key to long-term success. So copy this, print it out and tack this up in your cube...

There is no algorithmic update coming to correct rankings for tactics that are "doing hard work & connecting with customers".

Algorithmic updates are often targeted at those large-scale low quality SEO strategies, so lets just stop doing them. Let’s start with a historical view…

PHASE I - It starts with cloaking...

Anyone around doing SEO pre-2000 did this, and especially scalable SEOs loved cloaking because they could create some page full of garbage text, and just insert keywords to hit a target keyword density, and boom page 1 of Excite, Lycos, or whatever.

Then came PageRank - Google realized that their search engine would be most successful if people had to "EARN it" by getting links from quality sources that had anchor text in those links. Google realized that too much money was at stake to just "trust" people to not keyword stuff, use white text on white backgrounds, and cloak (and they were right).

PHASE II - Scalable SEOs turned to reciprocal linking

Reciprocal linking sites sprung up quick to provide relief for the scalable SEOs hit by cloaking that was becoming less and less effective.

Reciprocal linking sites were not about finding sites to reciprocate with, who were quality, the strategy was all about scale...there were tools & scripts that were built PURELY to run reciprocal link exchanges. There is no added value or hard work associated with a script that lets anyone post a link to your "links page" and constantly checks to see if they have their link up to you still. Scalable SEO's loved it... run the script, get rankings. No real hard work required. Cash the checks.

Eventually Google updated the algorithm to hit sites who got most of their links in this scalable pattern. Leading to our next scalable exploitation... directory links.

PHASE III - Directory linking on a tragic scale

It wasn't long before scalable SEO's came in again this time with one-way links in the form of directories.

Awesome, now people are getting links in directories for rankings, but many of those directories don't really quality control the links either, pay to play. Remember, there are 230 quality directories for the taking.

As if that wasn't bad enough another cottage industry sprung up, you know the kinds of companies that will submit you to hundreds or thousands of directories for a very low cost. This allows the 4 hour workweek loving SEOs to just pay some company to do all of their directory linking, sure clients might be at risk the day it stops working, but the scalable SEO doesn't worry about that, they'll just find the next exploit. I believe that anchor text is going to be on the way out, maybe not in 2012, but soon I hope.

When that does happen, expect several sites to take hits because they have their eggs in too much of one basket, if directories are working for you now, start balancing you link portfolio.

PHASE IV - One-way bought links

Once directory links started working somewhat less (I believe they still work more than they should) next up were link networks. You know the ones that created the golden brick road for SEO's. Pay us, we put your one way, non directory links up on pretty quality sites. Instead of making legitimate relationships with bloggers, authors, site owners and journalists or doing things that are newsworthy, creating awards, badges, etc to get your links, you could just pay. So the scalable SEO once again rubs her hands together in utter joy...because creating relationships with bloggers is hard work, buying links on those blogs through a link broker is so much easier, all I have to do is charge enough, and get back to my 4 hour work week.

PHASE V - Panda smackdown, did you wake up??

I LOVE the fact that none of our existing clients were hit by panda, we (like many of you) picked up new clients, and we learned a ton in the process.

You know what we learned more than anything?

People who made tons of money mashing up databases of info into extremely low quality pages got a major hit. Well let's think, again, that scalable strategy worked for a while, but eventually caused a lot of (much deserved) pain to a bunch of web sites, who saw major drops in traffic. Most SEOs who embraced the hard work of adding value, saw no hits.

Let me give you a peek into what caused a consulting client to get hit by panda. We had a client that we were training, in an emerging international market, the company has hundreds of properties and millions of web pages. It’s a HUGE task to manage this. As we interviewed different members of their team, you could just sense in your gut that the goal was drop everything into a database and create pages from the database. This is not always a red flag, obviously large sites run this way. The issue was that there was no focus on making these pages quality, I mean NONE. When we would ask why does this page exist, how does it help the user...we were told not to worry about it, we pushed back, but ultimately the client didn't take the advice.

That was almost 2 years ago, but at that time we knew that without any bloggers, no outreach, no unique content, nothing, just making pages from databases and aggressive interlinking was going to be a recipe for disaster. We knew that deep down Google & Bing don’t want this in their index. One day they got hit, why? Because they fell in love with what was easy and didn't invest in the hard work of adding value.

Scalable SEO's - Zappos is going to eat your lunch

Are you in the clothing / retail business? Here's an example:

Zappos is producing 60-100 videos a day according to this video! There is no way to scale that, it’s just hard work. Building studios and making the investment, and their rankings will convert better than your rankings due to that hard work!! They have proof of the conversion increases when videos are on product pages. Eventually video could become a barrier to entry / ranking signal to the search engines, and if they do, you are WAY behind. So are you waiting for that to be the case to start the investment or are you doing it NOW?

I have been working more and more on evaluating real connections my clients have in social media, and in real life, looking at top forum posters, evaluating their top community members, or heck even looking at their LinkedIn connections as ways to build links.

Final thoughts

Many years have passed since our beloved first search engines have gotten acquired or went out of business, you know Excite, AltaVista, Lycos - even though they never became Google, they all worked towards the same goal Google and Bing do every day...reward the websites who create real businesses, good content, connect with the community and earn links with high rankings. Unlike my buddy Eric Ward, I am not 100% sold that 2012 is the year when all of this comes together, but even if it is 2013 or 2014, he is right in the fact that its coming. It’s been coming since the inception of the first search engine, I've been watching it for 13 of those years...search engines will figure it out. The question is do you want to always stay just one step ahead and have that stress or do you want to start adding value?

Disclaimer: Every SEO (including us at SEER) has to seek out efficiencies and opportunities that scale to some extent, so I am obviously all for that. But you know when you meet someone if the core of their view of the world is more about scale and less about embracing the hard work. That is when I get worried.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Everyone in Web Marketing Should Be Against SOPA

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:40 AM PST

Posted by randfish

If you've visited the Internet today, you know that SOPA and PIPA are being protested by companies like Google, Craigslist, Reddit and thousands of others. To them, we at Moz (and all of us in the web marketing world) say, "Thank You." It's not often that the web's interests align so clearly with the principles of economic and political freedom, and we appreciate those who are recognizing it today, along with those who'll continue the fight in the future.

If you're unfamilar with SOPA, please take a few minutes to watch this video:

PROTECT IP / SOPA Breaks The Internet from Fight for the Future on Vimeo.

We'd also strongly recommend that everyone concerned about this take heed of Joe Brockmeier's wise words on the topic (via RWW):

I'm glad that all of these organizations are taking a stand. But invoking what some call the "nuclear option" is only going to be so effective. Even if SOPA/PIPA are stopped this year, they'll be back under new names next year. The entertainment industry can afford to keep at it, knowing that the public's attention span is extremely short. The lobbyists who work on things like SOPA are paid to press these things through Congress. They can focus on them year after year, while the voting public has to make a conscious effort to keep tabs on their representatives.

Informing people about SOPA and asking that they call their representatives is all well and good, but it doesn't go nearly far enough.

What the SOPA protesters should say is that even if SOPA goes down in flames, it's not over. It's never over. Further, the public can not rely on mainstream media to warn them of this sort of legislation. This is doubly true when the legislation is supported by the same organizations that own the media.

Sure, call your representative and senators today. Protest SOPA and PIPA. But beyond that, keep paying attention to what your elected officials are doing. Spend a little more time paying attention to your government, even if it means spending a little less time on entertainment activities.

Today's events are a great step in helping to raise public awareness, but there is real danger in the long term, and advocates must take action more than just today. That said, I've personally signed the petition at American Censorship, and if your beliefs align, I'd encourage you to consider it.

SOPA + PIPA are real threats to Internet freedom, commerce, content and the marketing profession not just in the US, but worldwide (another troubling and terrifying issue that Moz isn't really the place to discuss). We support all those helping to keep the web the amazing place it's become and will put our names, our votes and our dollars to use stopping those who'd legislate against web freedom to help the wallets of self-interested non-innovators.

p.s. SEOmoz had originally planned to make some changes to our site today in support of the SOPA/PIPA blackout protest, but we've been having some release management challenges - for that we apologize. Please don't construe this as a lack of support.

Seth's Blog : Over your head

Over your head

Once the water is deep enough that you must swim to stay afloat, does it really matter how deep the pool is?

• Email to a friend •

miercuri, 18 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Ron Paul only GOP candidate to publicly denounce SOPA; What is SOPA and Why Won't it Work?
Greek Bond Talks Edge Toward 68% Haircut Deal; Will the Deal Be Accepted?
Finnish Minister Pours Cold Water on Merkozy Treaty; 4th Treaty Draft Underway; ECB Considers Alternatives to Bond-Buy Program; Unresolvable Questions
IMF Proposes Trillion Dollar Lending Expansion

Ron Paul only GOP candidate to publicly denounce SOPA; What is SOPA and Why Won't it Work?

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 08:06 PM PST

Yahoo! News reports Ron Paul only GOP Candidate to Publicly Denounce SOPA

GOP presidential candidate and Texas Rep. Ron Paul came out Wednesday in support of the "blackout" efforts taking place across the Web protesting pending anti-piracy legislation many have decried as an Internet censorship effort.

Paul made a statement through a Facebook status update, saying:

"My campaign, and the entire freedom movement, would not be as strong as they are today without a free Internet, and that's just one of the reasons why the establishment hopes to censor it with SOPA and PIPA. I'm proud to see so many taking a stand today. Contact your representative and senators and tell them to oppose these disastrous bills."

Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich – at least on Facebook and Twitter — were silent on the issue, and instead devoted their social media platforms to further campaign against one another.

Paul's son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, also came out Wednesday pledging to filibuster PIPA, which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has promised to bring to the Senate floor on January 24.

What is SOPA and Why Won't it Work?

SOPA is the Stop Online Piracy Act. The name may sound nice, but here are some choice comments from Wikipedia.

Impact on Online Freedom of Speech

Opponents have warned that SOPA would have a negative impact on online communities. Journalist Rebecca MacKinnon argued in an op-ed that making companies liable for users' actions could have a chilling effect on user-generated sites such as YouTube. "The intention is not the same as China's Great Firewall, a nationwide system of Web censorship, but the practical effect could be similar," she says. The Electronic Freedom Foundation (EFF) warned that websites Etsy, Flickr and Vimeo all seemed likely to shut down if the bill becomes law.

Policy analysts for New America Foundation say this legislation would enable law enforcement to take down an entire domain due to something posted on a single blog, arguing, "an entire largely innocent online community could be punished for the actions of a tiny minority."

Additional concerns include the impact on common Internet functions such as linking or access data from the cloud. EFF claimed the bill would ban linking to sites deemed offending, even in search results[32] and on services such as Twitter.[33] Christian Dawson, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Virginia-based hosting company ServInt, predicted that the legislation would lead to many cloud computing and Web hosting services moving out of the US to avoid lawsuits.[34] The Electronic Frontier Foundation have stated that the requirement that any site must self-police user generated content would impose significant liability costs and explains "why venture capitalists have said en masse they won't invest in online startups if PIPA and SOPA pass."[35]

Weakening of "safe harbor" protections

According to critics of the bill such as the Center for Democracy and Technology and the Electronic Frontier Foundation, the bill's wording is vague enough that a single complaint about a site could be enough to block it, with the burden of proof resting on the site. A provision in the bill states that any site would be blocked that "is taking, or has taken deliberate actions to avoid confirming a high probability of the use of the U.S.-directed site to carry out acts that constitute a violation." Critics have read this to mean that a site must actively monitor its content and identify violations to avoid blocking, rather than relying on others to notify it of such violations.

Web-related businesses

An analysis in the information technology magazine eWeek stated, "The language of SOPA is so broad, the rules so unconnected to the reality of Internet technology and the penalties so disconnected from the alleged crimes that this bill could effectively kill e-commerce or even normal Internet use. The bill also has grave implications for existing U.S., foreign and international laws and is sure to spend decades in court challenges."

Internal networks

A paper by the Center for Democracy and Technology claimed that the bill "targets an entire website even if only a small portion hosts or links to some infringing content."

Impact on web-browsing software

The Electronic Frontier Foundation expressed concern that free and open source software (FLOSS) projects found to be aiding online piracy could experience serious problems under SOPA. Of special concern was the web browser Firefox, which has an optional extension, MAFIAAFire Redirector, that redirects users to a new location for domains that were seized by the U.S. government. In May 2011, Mozilla refused a request by the Department of Homeland Security to remove MAFIAAFire from its website, questioning whether the software had ever been declared illegal.

Potential Effectiveness

Edward J. Black, president and CEO of the Computer & Communication Industry Association, wrote in the Huffington Post that "Ironically, it would do little to stop actual pirate websites, which could simply reappear hours later under a different name, if their numeric web addresses aren't public even sooner. Anyone who knows or has that web address would still be able to reach the offending website."

An editorial in the San Jose Mercury-News stated, "Imagine the resources required to parse through the millions of Google and Facebook offerings every day looking for pirates who, if found, can just toss up another site in no time."

John Palfrey of the Berkman Center for Internet & Society commented, "DNS filtering is by necessity either overbroad or underbroad; it either blocks too much or too little. Content on the Internet changes its place and nature rapidly, and DNS filtering is ineffective when it comes to keeping up with it."

Policy analysts for New America Foundation say this legislation would "instigate a data obfuscation arms race" whereby by increasingly invasive practices would be required to monitor users' web traffic resulting in a "counterproductive cat-and-mouse game of censorship and circumvention would drive savvy scofflaws to darknets while increasing surveillance of less technically proficient Internet users."

Never-Ending Witch Hunt

In short, SOPA is nothing but an never-ending witch hunt proposal that would allow the shutting down of websites, including mine, Zero Hedge, Max Keiser, Town Hall, ML-Implode, Calculated Risk, Naked Capitalism, Patrick, the Big Picture, and other alternative news sites on the most flimsy of reasons without doing anything to curb online piracy.

In the title to this post, I used the phrase "won't work" rather loosely. By "won't work" I meant the bill will not achieve the stated goal of stopping piracy. It may indeed "work" in the sense it would allow government to shut down sites for political reasons on trumped-up charges.

Close analysis shows the bill is really nothing but more "big brother" legislation and another attack on freedom of speech. Ron Paul is on the right side of this issue. Once again, he is the only one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek Bond Talks Edge Toward 68% Haircut Deal; Will the Deal Be Accepted?

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 11:40 AM PST

Former ECB president Jean Claude Trichet said there would be no haircuts. There were. The first Greek haircut was 21% and it was insufficient. The second Greek haircut deal was 50% and that too was insufficient. On each failed attempt, the ECB and EMU poured more money into Greece.

There is now about €200bn of Greek debt held by banks, hedge funds and other investors up from about €50bn a couple years ago.

A third renegotiation is now underway, rumored to be a 68% haircut. Clearly there would have been far fewer ramification on banks if Greece would have defaulted long ago.

Such is the stubborn arrogance of ECB, and EMU officials.

Unless another haircut is approved Greece, and still more money is poured into Greece, it will default on March 20 when a €14.5 billion bond repayment is due.

The Financial Times reports Greek bond talks edge closer to deal

Talks broke down last week with holders of close to €200bn of Greek debt after some eurozone officials called for a sharply lower coupon, or interest payment, on new bonds.

The latest proposal called for a step-up coupon starting at about 3 per cent and rising to 4.5 per cent as the bond approached maturity, one banker said. Another said the average interest paid during the life of the bond would be 4.25 per cent, a rate "that the banks would be happy with".

The deal would amount to a 68 per cent loss for bondholders in net present value terms, according to people familiar with the talks.

Banks will be happy with a 68% loss? I rather doubt it.

Will the Deal Be Accepted?

Peter Tchir at TF Market Advisors had some interesting comments on the likelihood of the "success" of the PSI (private sector initiative) in his post Greek PSI - Headlines And Reality

The Greek PSI is once again (still) hitting the headlines. Here is what I think the most likely scenario is (80% likelihood).

Some form of an agreement will be announced. The IIF will announce that the "creditor committee has agreed in principle to a plan." That plan will need to be "formalized" and final agreement from the individual institutions on the committee and those that weren't part of the committee will need to be obtained. The headline will sound good, but will leave a month or so for details to come out. In the meantime every European and EU leader (or employee) with a press contact will say what a great deal it is. That it confirms that Europe is on the path of progress and that they are doing what they committed to at their summits.

The rating agencies will call it a DEFAULT, because it is. ISDA won't call it a Credit Event because it isn't. The EU leaders will call it a haircut or PSI, because they have an aversion to saying the word DEFAULT (and to the truth). There will be some concern that calling it a DEFAULT by the rating agencies will trigger some actions. It won't. The ECB will allow banks to overrule the declaration of the rating agencies. They will say that Greece remains current on some bonds, that Greece will make payments on new bonds, so this DEFAULT situation is temporary and can be ignored for purposes of accounting, mark to market, collateral, etc.. It will avoid the chaos that would ensue, so they will go with the flow.

Then all talk will turn to Portugal. Why should Portugal continue to pay on their existing debt, when Greece just cut a great deal? And Ireland? The reality that Greece will NOT be an isolated case, but will be the norm will hit, and we will see the market give back the gains and sink lower on the realization that the banks recognizing losses is just beginning.

The key to understanding the negotiation mess is private investors (hedge funds) who bought bonds at a steep discount and at the same time bought credit default swaps for protection have everything to gain by forcing a credit event.

Tchir suggests they will be bought out. Certainly they will have to be bought out or the deal will collapse.

If they are bought out, everyone who does hold out is far better off than those who accept the deal straight up. This is what all the tension is about.

Greek deal disrupted by bondholders gambling on default

It is often hard to tell which article is more current when reading conflicting opinions, but please consider Greek deal disrupted by bondholders gambling on default

"Significant numbers" of Greek bonds may have migrated from financial institutions participating in the voluntary Private Sector Initiative (PSI) to others betting that the country will default, throwing the negotiations into peril, a senior economist has warned EurActiv.

It is also impossible to gauge how much of this 'bond migration' has taken place since the PSI negotiations began last year – because of a lack of transparency on the markets – according to Sony Kapoor, the managing director of economic think tank Re-Define.

The deal on the table involves persuading creditors to turn in their bonds and receive new ones that have half the face value and mature many years in the future. The Greek authorities say €206 billion of bonds are subject to the exchange; if all the creditors agree, they'd get €103 billion in new bonds back.

But there is a conflict between those bondholders – represented in the negotiations by the IIF – who are serious about accepting a voluntary write-down, and others betting on a default.

Kapoor said that the interests of bondholders who are hoping to free-ride on a voluntary agreement [some of whom hold credit default swaps] – is irking the bondholders willing to participate in the agreement, and was a major reason for the breakdown in negotiations last week.

"It is a classic collective action problem," he said. "Collectively a voluntary agreement is in the interests of some of the bondholders. But if 90% of bonds were volunteered and 10% did not, Greece is not likely to default and these 10% may have a bumper payoff," Kapoor added, explaining why those willing to join the agreement are exasperated with the others.

A spokesman for the IIF refused to comment to EurActiv on speculation that bonds were migrating in significant numbers to institutions hedged with credit default swaps. The spokesman said: "The first priority now for the negotiators representing major institutional investors is to see if it is at all possible to do a deal. If there is one, then the next phase is to see if as many as investors as possible can participate."

Meanwhile, the Fitch ratings agency announced Tuesday that Greece would default on its debt, although it said that such a default was likely to take place in an orderly manner.

"It is going to happen. Greece is insolvent so it will default," Edward Parker, the managing director of Fitch's sovereign group for Europe, the Middle East and Africa told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Stockholm.

Will the Third Haircut be Sufficient?

Whether the deal is accepted or not I side with that "Greece is insolvent so it will default". But did Fitch mean a "credit event" default or a "voluntary" non-credit event default?

Here is the deal.

The Greek economy is absolutely dead. Austerity measures are going to impart still more pain. Capital flight is underway. Few of the reforms Greece has agreed to have even been implemented. The idea that Greece will reduce its deficit under these circumstances seems silly.

Moreover Greek elections are coming up, possibly "sometime in April", according to the prime minister. Thus, whatever is agreed to now in terms of austerity measures, reforms, asset sales, privatizations etc. by this caretaker government will all have to be fought over yet another time.

Eventually, some politician or set of politicians will have had enough of this process.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Finnish Minister Pours Cold Water on Merkozy Treaty; 4th Treaty Draft Underway; ECB Considers Alternatives to Bond-Buy Program; Unresolvable Questions

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 08:39 AM PST

Inquiring minds are reading several recent articles on the EU Observer.

ECB Considers Alternatives to Bond-Buy Program

Please consider ECB mulling alternatives to bond-buy plan

The European Central Bank is exploring alternatives to its controversial bond-purchase programme but has yet to decide on any replacement policy tool, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny told a German website in comments published on Tuesday.

Nowotny, who is also Austria's national central bank chief, said there was scepticism on the policymaking Council about the bond-buy programme "because we fear the market imperfections that we want to correct with this could emerge in another area."

"We are discussing possible alternatives. But this discussion is not so far developed that we can dispense with the SMP (bond-buying programme)," Nowotny told the Wall Street Journal's German website.

Bundesbank chief Axel Weber quit in protest at the programme last year and another heavyweight German ECB policymaker, Juergen Stark, also resigned over the plan.

The ECB more than tripled its bond purchases last week to the highest level since late November, spending 3.77 billion euros as a calm start to the New Year gave way to an intensification of the euro zone debt crisis.

The bond purchases face renewed scrutiny after Standard & Poor's mass euro zone rating downgrades on Friday, though the ECB has resisted political pressure from within and beyond the euro zone to step up the programme on a major scale.

Alternatives? There are No Alternatives

The ECB has a choice. Buy bonds or don't buy bonds. If the ECB continues to buy bonds, more and more of the risk will be put on the back of Germany.

However, if the ECB stops buying bonds, interest rates will soar.

This ponzi scheme will blow up sooner rather than later and that is precisely why the euro end-game is at hand. For details please see Time to Prepare for a Meeting of "Monetary Cardinals".

Finnish Foreign Minister Pours Cold Water on Merkozy Treaty

Please consider Finnish minister pours cold water on fiscal treaty

Criticising the EU for its "terrible hurry" to sign and adopt the new rules and for circumventing "all the normal parliamentary procedures," Tuomioja wrote in his blog on Monday (16 January) that the treaty will overlap with existing EU laws on economic discipline - the so-called 'six-pack.'

The new treaty will "just confuse decision-makers, undermine the EU commission's role and create new divisions within the EU" he said.

"The whole contract is at best unnecessary and at worst harmful, and Finland has reason to oppose the whole treaty and at least remain outside it."

One of the measures to be applied by the new treaty - a "structural deficit" of 0.5 percent of GDP - would be a "completely nonsensical straitjacket" that would only deepen recession and increase unemployment, he added.

In his opinion, the whole agreement is a concession made to Germany so that the EU's paymaster lets the European Central Bank intervene more forcefully to stem sovereign debt problems from spreading to more euro-countries.

"We should not be taking orders from anybody," Tuomioja said.

The article points out that Tuomioja is a "junior member in Finland's ruling coalition and his views do not reflect the position of the whole government". However, I point out that should the proposal be put to a voter referndum, it would fail.

Politicians, acing in their own best interests are likely to ratify the treaty.

4th Treaty Draft Underway, Numerous Questions Remain

Please consider Handful of questions remain on EU fiscal treaty

A fourth draft of the slim document - meant to copperfasten budgetary prudence in the EU - is to be circulated on Thursday (19 January), but most of the outstanding issues have been left for finance ministers to sort out in the hope the pact will be ready in time for an end-of-the-month EU summit.

One open question is determining the link between the permanent bail-out fund (the ESM) and the new intergovernmental pact. Germany - the main driver behind the treaty - is keen to have the intergovernmental agreement say only countries that have ratified it will be permitted to make use of the fund.

But according to an account on Monday evening (16 January) by Italian Socialist MEP Roberto Gualtieri - one of the European Parliament's observers at the negotiating table - other countries fear this would once again create uncertainty in the markets.

Also open is how many euro countries need to ratify the treaty before it enters into force. The number has yo-yoed from the initial suggestion of nine, then to 15 and then back to 12. Germany wants a high number so that all struggling eurozone countries get on board.

On top of this, there is disagreement about wording in an article on economic policy co-ordination (Article 9). Opposing camps differ on whether to make mention of growth-enhancing measures and if so, on the nature of the reference.

Member states are also at odds on future eurozone summitry. An eternal question in EU politics, it concerns who has a right to be in the inner circle. Wording on the role of the European Parliament, the president of the European Commission and non-euro states still needs to be finalised.

"It's a very important point which has been left open," Gualtieri noted at an EU parliament hearing on Monday.

MEPs will be looking for the fourth draft to mention eurobonds in the introduction to the document - EU deputies are keen on the idea of mutualising eurozone debt, but it is fiercely opposed by Germany.

"There is a proposal by the commission - if it is accepted - of making reference in the recital of a path toward stability bonds. This would be at least an improvement in respect of a text that [is] only concentrated on fiscal stability without anything on growth and solidarity," Gualtieri added.

Unresolvable Questions

Excuse me for pointing out the obvious but that is one hell of a lot of issues to be decided at the last minute. One has to laugh if not loudly mock the idea that Eurobonds under a new name of "stability bonds" are going anywhere given Germany's stance.

As for the number of nations it takes to ratify the treaty, pray tell why isn't the number 17, the exact number of nations in the Eurozone. Can someone point out a ratified agreement that "majority rule" dictates such matters? If not, then why does not every nation have to agree to such a change?

Would such a treaty change pass in a German referendum? I think not because it would open the door for majority rule eurobonds.

By the way, the above discussion explains why Merkel wants a high number as opposed to a simple majority. Even still, there is no guarantee every other country would not someday vote against Germany, just as 26 nations voted against the UK in a recent proposed change to the EU treaty.

Merkel is bright enough to understand this. However, like all politicians she does not really care about governance. She is more concerned about her legacy. She does not want the Eurozone to collapse under her watch.

Understand that and you can easily understand the horrendous compromises with French President Nicolas Sarkozy that she has made, as well as her pathetic agreement to a proposal that risk's selling Germany down the river later via a majority rule construct.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

IMF Proposes Trillion Dollar Lending Expansion

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 03:14 AM PST

Here's a dead on arrival proposal: IMF Proposes Trillion Dollar Lending Expansion

Most European stocks rose, erasing earlier losses, as the International Monetary Fund was said to propose a $1 trillion expansion of its lending resources. Asian shares and U.S. index futures advanced.

The IMF is proposing an expansion of its lending resources to safeguard the global economy against any worsening of Europe's debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nation. The lender is pushing China, Brazil, Russia, India, Japan and oil-exporting nations to be the top contributors, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.

China Rejected Bailout Request Already

For starters, China already rejected bailout requests by Europe.

China's vice foreign minister has ruled out using the country's vast foreign exchange reserves to bail out Europe, as the debt-laden continent tries to stave off the risk of a massive default.

"The argument that China should rescue Europe does not stand," vice foreign minister Fu Ying told an EU-China forum.

"We cannot use foreign reserves for... rescuing foreign countries. We need to ensure safety, liquidity and profit for the foreign reserves."

Moreover, Brazil, Russia, India, and Japan have their own problems. The US is not going to contribute more and was not even asked.

Nonetheless S&P futures spiked about seven fast points overnight on the news.

That the IMF feels the need to make such a request should not be anything to cheer about. Indeed, there has been so much orchestrated "good news" that I can't help wondering if the bottom is about to fall out of the market.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Good news about Amit (thank you!)

Good news about Amit (thank you!)

My colleague Amit Gupta found a 10/10 marrow match. There's still a long and treacherous road ahead, but thanks to you, and to people like you, and the ability to spread the word among the tribe, a match was found, something that was impossible just a few years ago.

Thank you.

• Email to a friend •

Damn Cool Pics

Congress Can You Hear Us?

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 02:17 PM PST

Millions of Americans oppose SOPA and PIPA because these bills would censor the Internet and slow economic growth in the U.S.

Two bills before Congress, known as the Protect IP Act (PIPA) in the Senate and the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) in the House, would censor the Web and impose harmful regulations on American business. Millions of Internet users and entrepreneurs already oppose SOPA and PIPA. The Senate will begin voting on January 24th. Please let them know how you feel. Sign this petition urging Congress to vote NO on PIPA and SOPA before it is too late.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Source: google

10 Commandments of Affiliate Web Design Graywolf's SEO Blog

10 Commandments of Affiliate Web Design

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 10:39 AM PST

Advanced SEO Book cover This is a guest post by Gab Goldenberg, author of the advanced SEO book. Get a free chapter on link building here and check out his book affiliate program – the site boasts a 5.5% conversion rate to sale!

Affiliate web design is not only unique because it’s purpose is to generate conversions – in contrast to providing an outlet for frustrated artists – but it has to do so in a limited environment where the conversion has to happen on a third party site. Here are the 10 key web design rules for affiliates.

10. Problem: You need to send the traffic onwards, with minimal bounce rate on the merchant site.

Solution: Therefore, prepare your traffic by including visual elements of the merchant’s landing page on your own site.

Logos are a minimum, but try cropping the hero shot and using that or some stock photo face that’s on the lander… use things people will recognize after clicking through and reassure them this is what they clicked through to see. Only using text links is lazy and less likely to work.

Similarly, either repeat or paraphrase the merchant’s headline with your headline and call to action.

9. Problem: Merchant sites don’t show shipping costs [or other costs, ex.: book clubs, hidden fees] easily. This means people will abandon the cart in higher rates.

Solution: Gather the info yourself and inform your visitors exactly of all charges ahead of time.

8. Problem: Visitors care about the merchant/ the merchant’s product. Not you.

Solution: Provide a value add that encourages people to refer their friends to you. Are your reviews updated periodically? Do they get a bonus if they buy through your affiliate link? (E.g. similar to cashback affs, but you can offer bonuses like info products, tools, stickers, support etc) Do you have some unique value add like BBGeeks.com‘s reviews of network coverage organized by geography?
7. Problem: Your design is intended to yield a sale, once, and once-only.

Solution: It’s OK to start with pushing your traffic to convert right away, you’re only ever going to get value from that customer once… so you should figure out how to get that traffic into an email (or phone, direct mail, personal contact) list you can monetize repeatedly. Generating leads for the aerospace field? Why not invite leads to your aerospace summer retreat?

6. Problem: Your claims aren’t credible.

Solution: Substantiate them with pics and video. Did you really buy that top fom the Gap? Show a picture of yourself in it with the matching bag. Weight-loss product really work? Show before/after or record yourself doing it, and prove the dates are real with newspapers in your vid.

5. Problem: You’re too enthusiastic about the affiliate product. Every reference to it on your site is linked, the “negatives” in your review are that the merchant is too helpful and generous etc… skeptical consumers don’t click.

Solution: Use one call to action above the fold, and one for every scroll of screen real estate downwards. How many pixels to a scroll? Check your analytics for visitors’ most common screen resolutions.

4. Problem: You overestimate how much persuasion people need and have too much copy.

Solution: Short copy vs long copy depends on several factors, chief amongst which is price and second degree of need. You can get names and emails with a title, picture and 2-3 bulleted benefits. (I once wrote a sales letter with 20 reasons to subscribe to my free RSS feed. Ooops.)

Note: Price includes total price, because people aren’t stupid and get that a $50 monthly subscription is a helluva lot more than a one-time $50 purchase.

3. Problem: You’re starting with visuals/templates as opposed to copy.

Solution: Form serves function. Figure out what you want to do, and create a page (or find a template) that matches that. Don’t start with visuals and then try to fit your copy/ purpose into it. For example, I’ve seen complicated SaaS software trying to sell me on a $50 subscription with hardly any copy on the landing page, because the lander featured a big spot for a hero image / video (which was meant for newbies very unfamiliar with the category of product, and thus didn’t help me) and then some horizontally aligned features with 3 lines of adwords-length copy each.

2. Problem: Your blog posts lack email subscription forms. I don’t mean in the sidebar or in a dhtml overlay-popup. I mean in the post.

Solution: Scott Brinker from IonInteractive.com (no association, though I did get a free review copy of their CRO book Honest Seduction) showed a brilliant type of landing page at Pubcon 2010. He featured a full length article featuring X ways to do Y… and then there was an opt-in form above the fold embedded in the copy, right-aligned, saying “Get 10 more ways to do Y”…

Obviously you can’t do that for every blog post, but your popular posts should have that sort of integration so you get max value out of each post. On the backend, you can need to figure out how to send a custom initial autoresponder if you want all these people on the same list, or you can create multiple duplicate lists.

Another more general way to do this is to have your forms tied to your blog post’s category or tag, in which case you have a general free report for the “seo” category” and another for the “affiliate” category.

1. Problem: Your landing page is leaky. Yes, affiliates have leaks too, not just merchants.

Solution: Get rid of all the extra junk on your landing page. Standard navigation on your product review blog post? Use a WP custom post type with a blank sidebar or comment it out for that page. Use Google Website Optimizer to test the two and watch CTR soar on the nav-free page.

p.p.s. Problem #11: WordPress is your default landing page creation/testing engine. Even using something like Thesis or Affiliate Theme, you’re strongly limiting your ability to test graphics, in terms of layout, hero shots, and more. Either use purpose built testing software that has a built-in landing page creation/editing, or get some graphics and html. I use Bharce for graphics and PSD to HTML/CSS for slicing.

photo credit: Shutterstock/SSGuy

Maximizing Profits With Website Design and Layout: Part III In Maximizing Profits With Website Design and Layout: Part I,...
How to Mask Affiliate Links How to mask affiliate links is one of the most...
Maximizing Profits With Website Design and Layout: Part I I was building new site this past weekend and I...
Cloaking Affiliate Links, How and Why Today’s topic is one that gets asked about pretty regularly,...
Maximizing Profits With Website Design and Layout: Part II In Maximizing Profits With Website Design and Layout: Part I,...

Advertisers:

Text Link Ads - New customers can get $100 in free text links.
BOTW.org - Get a premier listing in the internet's oldest directory.
Ezilon.com Regional Directory - Check to see if your website is listed!
Need an SEO Audit for your website, look at my SEO Consulting Services
Directory Journal - Get permanent deep links in a search engine friendly directory
LinkWheel SEO - Get Web 2.0 Backlinks
TigerTech - Great Web Hosting service at a great price.
Article-Writing-services.org - Article Writing Services creates quality content for websites and blogs at no cost to site owners.
Link Building Services - Hire WeBuildLink.com for well-planned advanced link building campaigns. Very affordable. Contact us now for a FREE evaluation.
Join 500+ top agencies & publishers who rely on The HOTH every day. US based, enterprise-grade support. High quality, contextually relevant links. 100% money back guarantee. Try it now.