Central Perk

duminică, 29 ianuarie 2012

Posted: 29 Jan 2012 04:45 PM PST

Politics are heating up in France and Germany as French president Nicolas Sarkozy clings to his political life and German chancellor Angela Merkel is under increasing pressure over more bailouts.

The Financial Times reports Merkel to join Sarkozy on campaign trail

German chancellor Angela Merkel promised to join Nicolas Sarkozy on the campaign trail as the French president took to the airwaves on Sunday to launch a set of German-style structural reforms aimed at seizing the initiative in his uphill re-election attempt.

Ms Merkel's Christian Democrat party said she would "actively support Nicolas Sarkozy with joint appearances in the election campaign in the spring". The announcement caused surprise in Paris as Mr Sarkozy, also of the centre-right, has yet officially to declare his candidacy for the election, which will take place over two rounds on April 22 and May 6.

The pledge by the German leader underscored the close ties she and Mr Sarkozy – together now habitually dubbed "Merkozy" – have built during the eurozone crisis, despite clear tensions between them at times. Ms Merkel pointedly avoided overt backing for David Cameron, the British Conservative party leader, in the 2010 UK general election.

Her intervention represented a clear rebuke to Mr Hollande. He has promised to renegotiate the new "fiscal compact" for the eurozone forged by Ms Merkel and Mr Sarkozy, due to be signed at a European Union summit in Brussels on Monday. He criticised it in his manifesto for lacking any growth stimulus and called for eurobonds and a revised pro-growth role for the European Central Bank, both strongly opposed by Berlin.

Sarkozy Proposes German-Style Reforms

Hoping to give a lift to his faltering campaign, Sarkozy to bring in German-style reforms

French president Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled German-style labour market reforms on Sunday as part of a package of measures aimed at reinvigorating the economy and his re-election prospects, hours after German chancellor Angela Merkel promised to join him on the campaign trail in an unusual show of cross-border support.

He announced a €13bn cut in France's labour costs, which are among the highest in Europe, by reducing social charges on employers. The cut would be funded by an increase from October – well after the election – in value added tax to 21.2 per cent from the current level of 19.6 per cent, plus an extra tax on financial income.

Citing reforms made under former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who recently visited Mr Sarkozy, the president also proposed allowing companies more freedom to negotiate flexible working hours and pay levels with local unions – further eroding the significance of France's statutory 35-hour working week. Similar moves in Germany had "created job, jobs and more jobs", Mr Sarkozy said.

He announced the introduction of a long-promised financial transaction tax from August, saying the 0.1 per cent levy would include credit default swaps and "speculative computer trades". France is determined to pioneer a full-blown FTT in the eurozone. "What we want to do is provoke a shock, to show an example," he said.

Mr Sarkozy's determination to push ahead with the shift of some welfare funding to VAT – known in France as "social VAT" – just months before the election was described by one parliamentary deputy from his UMP party as "political suicide".

It has been flatly rejected by Mr Hollande and the president himself specifically ruled out an increase in the general VAT rate as recently as last October.

Will Sarkozy Please Make Up His Mind?

With today's announcement it appears the financial transaction tax is once again on the table. Sarkozy announced it, even to the point of "France Going Alone" if the EU would not approve. Then Sarkozy Dumps Financial Transaction Tax After Pressure From Banks. Now the proposal albeit in a modified form is back on the table.

In my opinion a financial transaction tax is economic insanity. It will reduce liquidity and perhaps cause a market crash.

Indeed all these taxes are economic insanity. Europe is headed into a huge recession. Increasing the VAT is the last thing one should want to do.

Hollande Vows to Raise Taxes for Rich and Banks

Meanwhile socialist challenger François Hollande sings a populous tune and vows to raise taxes for rich and banks.

François Hollande has outlined plans to raise taxes from the country's banks, big companies and higher earners to close the country's budget deficit and fund job creation in his bid to defeat Nicolas Sarkozy in France's presidential election.

In a 60-point manifesto, the opposition Socialist party candidate also pledged to reopen the issue of pension reform, challenging one of the key achievements of Mr Sarkozy's term of office.

The manifesto included a call to renegotiate the new eurozone "fiscal compact", saying its emphasis on austerity aggravated the economic situation. He said the pact and the role of the European Central Bank should be re-shaped to favour growth, and he called for the creation of eurobonds to overcome the sovereign debt crisis.

Mr Hollande proposed finding all of the €29bn additional savings he said had to be made by 2013 through taxes. These would be raised by increasing levies on higher earning individuals, upping taxes on banks and removing a series of tax breaks for big corporations.

"If there are sacrifices to be made, and there will be, then it will be for the wealthiest to make them," Mr Hollande said.

He insisted, however, that although the overall burden of taxes on the French economy would grow to almost 47 per cent of GDP by 2017 from 45 per cent this year, this was exactly in line with the current government's own proposals.

Mr Hollande's manifesto included €20bn of new spending measures, mostly to fund the hiring of 60,000 teachers, tens of thousands of new jobs for young people and support for small and medium-sized businesses.

A poll published yesterday by CSA put Mr Hollande on 31 per cent in the first round of voting, ahead of Mr Sarkozy on 25 per cent, with the socialist taking 60 per cent in a second round runoff against the incumbent.

Presidential Pay Hikes May Sink Sarkozy

Bear in mind that one of the first things Sarkozy did after the 2007 elections was to raise his salary from 100,000 euros to 240,000, a 140% increase. Much voter resentment lingers over that pay raise.

In contrast The Telegraph reports French front-runner pledges to cut his pay by 30 per cent as he aims to become next president

Francois Hollande, the front-runner to become France's next president pledged to cut his and his government's pay by 30 per cent on Sunday, as he hit out at the rich while seeking to dispel niggling doubts he has what it takes to become his country's next leader.

With just three months to go before elections, poll after poll suggests Socialist Mr Hollande will secure a comfortable victory over the unpopular Nicolas Sarkozy, his conservative rival and the incumbent.

Hollande's economic plan does not have to make any sense, and it does not have to be any better than Sarkozy's. Rather, Hollande's plan merely has to resonate with voters. A 20-point lead in second-round polls shows he has done just that.

I do not believe Merkel can save Sarkozy. Moreover and if she doesn't, her political stunt will hurt her own chances down the road.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

72% of Irish Want Referendum on Fiscal Treaty; Irish Prime Minister is a Disgrace

Posted: 29 Jan 2012 10:12 AM PST

Unless it's a "sure thing" the last thing politicians want is a voter referendum. Simply put, politicians never stand for democracy.

What voters want is a different thing: 72% of Irish Want Referendum on Fiscal Treaty

The Irish government faces intense pressure to hold a referendum on the eurozone fiscal treaty after a poll that showed almost three quarters of the public want a vote on the agreement.

In an opinion poll published on Sunday, 72 per cent of people surveyed said the treaty, which would tighten budget rules for the 17 countries sharing the euro, should go to a vote.

Some 40 per cent of the 1,000 people questioned in the Sunday Business Post/Red C poll said they would support the treaty, 36 per cent were opposed and 24 per cent were undecided.

Sinn Féin has threatened to challenge in the Irish Supreme Court any decision not to hold a referendum, a move that could plunge Europe into months of legal uncertainty.

Last week several leftwing groups, including Sinn Féin, the United Left Alliance, the Workers' party, and Eirigi launched a "Campaign Against Austerity Treaty", demanding the government hold a referendum.

Irish Prime Minister is a Disgrace

Enda Kenny, Irish prime minister, says he will only hold a referendum if "legally required".

Here is a bit of history on Kenny. He was swept into office in the wake of the global financial crisis. Voters were overwhelmingly opposed to bank bailouts and tossed out previous prime minister Brian Cowen in a massive landslide. It did not matter.

Kenny treated voters to more of the same. He entered agreements to bail out Eurozone banks, screwing Irish citizens in the process, just as Cowen had done.

Now, 72% of Irish citizens demand a referendum. Furthermore, every EU treaty since 1987 has been put to a vote.

Precedent alone says a referendum is "legally required". More importantly Kenny is "morally obligated" to hold a referendum. However, don't talk to politicians about morals, and don't expect any either.

Enda Kenny is a moral and ethical disgrace.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies: Financially Suspicious Minds

Posted: 29 Jan 2012 09:04 AM PST

This Sunday Funnies cartoon is courtesy of Merle Hazard who says "We Can't Go On Together with Suspicious Minds, Because Were Leveraged too Much Baby"

Concept by Merle Hazard, Art by Grey Blackwell. The cartoon also appeared on Jon Shayne's Blog.

Here is a list of Songs and videos by Merle Hazard, not to be confused with Merle Haggarg.

Inflation or Deflation?

Link if video does not play: Inflation or Deflation

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Prepared to fail

Prepared to fail

"We're hoping to succeed; we're okay with failure. We just don't want to land in between."

--David Chang

He's serious. Lots of people say this, but few are willing to put themselves at risk, which destroys the likelihood of success and dramatically increases the chance of in between.

• Email to a friend •

Want Guest Post Links? Find Them Via Twitter [TOOL]

Posted: 28 Jan 2012 12:58 AM PST

Posted by Ethan Lyon

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

For a long time I’ve been pulling an RSS feed from Twitter for the query: “guest post” OR “guest author” [TOPIC] into my Google Reader. Every morning I would check it, blaze through 15-20 URLs -- most of which were the same URL being tweeted. Then, I'd record the best guest post opportunities, reach out to bloggers, publish a guest post and get links. It was a great strategy and resulted in a lot of guest post links.

Although having an RSS feed was a bit more efficient than performing a Twitter search every day, it was boring, time consuming and I just really didn’t like doing it. Things you don’t like, don’t last.

So, I made a tool that does all the heavy lifting. This tool pulls the same RSS feed that I had in my Google Reader into Google Docs, finds all of the t.co URLs, enlarges them, eliminates duplicates based on domain, and presents them in a nice package.

Because it has helped me tremendously, I thought it could also help out other agency SEOs and small business marketers / owners.

How to use it

1. Go to http://ow.ly/8x9gF.

2. Make a copy of the sheet.

3. Type a one word topic that most describes your client / niche in cell B1.

You’ve likely chosen a topic too narrow if you’re seeing an error.

4. You’ll notice a bunch of t.co links populating cell A2. Wait five seconds (I know, tough, right?) and they will change into unique URLs.

5. Copy 5-6 URLs:

6. Paste them into Ontolo’s Link Reviewer: http://ontolo.com/link-building-url-reviewer

7. Click “Review URLs” and watch all of the URLs open in new tabs in your browser:

8. When you find a viable linking opportunity, paste the URL in column D:

9. Because no one expects you to remember all of the linking prospects in column D, it will tell you if there’s a duplicate in column F:

10. Now, add your link prospect’s contact info in column G.

11. Go to your calendar, create an event about an hour after you wake up that says, “Find Guest Posts Via Twitter” and add this link: http://ow.ly/8x9gF in the event. Set it to repeat every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

12. Lastly, perform outreach. Use John Doherty's Twitter outreach article as a base and start building links!

Parting Remarks

Because the guest post opportunities are curated by Twitter users, it could pick up posts that might not explicitly say guest post in the title or even in the body of the article, yet be a guest post. So it should help you uncover some gems that you might not find via Google.

Next Versions

In next versions, expect to see Google Blog Search, multiple queries and URL analysis. That’s what I had in mind but I’d love to hear what you would like to see in the next version of this tool.

Thanks for taking the time to read this post / watch the video and hopefully you can benefit as much as I have. Looking forward to your thoughts!

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Seth's Blog : Faux familiarity is worse than none at all

Faux familiarity is worse than none at all

Sure, it's easy to grab a first name from a database or glean some info from a profile.

But when you pretend to know me, you've already started our relationship with a lie. You've cheapened the tools we use to recognize each other and you've tricked me, at least a little.

Direct mail used to take advantage of this technique a lot, and since they measure everything, they knew when it worked. Online, though, we're seeing less disciplined marketers (big and small) continually mess it up. The clues are obvious to even the untrained eye--typefaces that don't match, references that don't make sense, and most of all, the weird disconnect we get when we think we're supposed to know someone and can't remember who they are. That's a lousy mood to get your prospect in, I think.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 28 ianuarie 2012

Modificări la Politica de confidenţialitate şi la Termenii şi condiţiile Google

		Acest mesaj de e-mail nu se afişează corect? Vizualizaţi-l în browser.
Stimat utilizator Google, Vom renunţa la peste 60 de politici diferite de confidenţialitate pentru produse şi servicii Google şi le vom înlocui cu una singură, mult mai scurtă şi mai uşor de citit. Noua noastră politică va acoperi mai multe produse şi funcţii şi va reflecta dorinţa noastră de a crea o experienţă unitară, frumoasă, simplă şi intuitivă în cadrul produselor şi serviciilor Google. Considerăm că este foarte important, aşadar vă rugăm să acordaţi câteva minute pentru parcurgerea Politicii de confidenţialitate şi Termenilor şi condiţiilor actualizate la http://www.google.com/policies/. Aceste modificări vor intra în vigoare la data de 1 martie 2012.
O singură politică, o experienţă Google unitară

Simplu de lucrat cu mai multe produse Noua politică Google reflectă o experienţă unitară a utilizării produselor, care să vă ofere ceea vă doriţi, atunci când vă doriţi. Fie că citiţi un e-mail care vă reaminteşte să programaţi o reuniune de familie, fie că găsiţi un videoclip preferat pe care doriţi să îl distribuiţi, vrem să ne asigurăm că puteţi trece cu uşurinţă între Gmail, Google Calendar, Căutarea Google, YouTube sau orice alt serviciu care vă este necesar în viaţa de zi cu zi.	Personalizat pentru dvs. Dacă sunteţi conectat(ă) la Google, vă putem sugera interogări de căutare – sau vă putem personaliza rezultatele căutărilor – pe baza intereselor pe care le-aţi exprimat în Google+, Gmail şi YouTube. Vom înţelege mai bine ce versiune de Pink sau de Jaguar căutaţi şi vă vom oferi mai rapid acele rezultate.	Uşor de distribuit şi de colaborat Când postaţi sau creaţi un document online, de multe ori vă doriţi ca alte persoane să îl vadă şi să contribuie. Prin memorarea informaţiilor de contact ale persoanelor cărora doriţi să îl distribuiţi, vă facilităm distribuirea în toate produsele sau serviciile Google, cu un număr minim de clicuri sau de erori.

Protejarea confidenţialităţii nu s-a modificat Scopul nostru este să vă oferim cât mai multă transparenţă şi cât mai multe opţiuni, prin produse ca Tabloul de bord Google şi Managerul preferinţelor anunţurilor, împreună cu alte instrumente. Principiile noastre de confidenţialitate rămân nemodificate. Nu vom vinde informaţiile dvs. personale şi nici nu le vom distribui fără permisiunea dvs. (în afara cazurilor rare, cum ar fi solicitările juridice justificate).	Aveţi întrebări? Avem răspunsuri. Vizitaţi secţiunea de Întrebări frecvente la http://www.google.com/policies/faq/ pentru a afla mai multe despre aceste modificări. (Am considerat că utilizatorii noştri vor avea între una şi 22 de întrebări.)

Notificare privind modificarea 1 martie 2012 este data la care intră în vigoare noile versiuni ale Politicii de confidenţialitate şi ale Termenilor şi condiţiilor. Dacă alegeţi să utilizaţi în continuare Google după aplicarea modificării, o veţi face în conformitate cu noua Politică de confidenţialitate şi cu noii Termeni şi condiţii. Nu răspundeţi la acest e-mail. Mesajele trimise la această adresă nu vor primi răspuns. De asemenea, nu introduceţi niciodată parola Contului Google dacă aţi urmat un link dintr-un e-mail sau dintr-o fereastră de chat, care trimite la un site ce nu prezintă încredere. Este recomandabil să accesaţi direct site-ul, de ex., mail.google.com sau www.google.com/accounts. Google nu trimite niciodată mesaje de e-mail prin care să vă solicite parola sau alte informaţii sensibile.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Flip Flop, Flip Flop; Sarkozy Hell-Bent on Proving to the UK and the World that He Hasn't a Clue; Cardinal Rule of Allies
Greeks Reject German Plan for EU Budget Commissioner; On the Verge of a Deal, Yet Again; Political Reality
Triumph of One and the Price of Arrogance; Merkozy Treaty to Fail on Legal Grounds; UK Should Thank Sarkozy
Bickering Over Who's at the "Three-Speed" European Table
Capital Account: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish

Flip Flop, Flip Flop; Sarkozy Hell-Bent on Proving to the UK and the World that He Hasn't a Clue; Cardinal Rule of Allies

Posted: 28 Jan 2012 10:49 PM PST

It is quite amusing to watch the self-destruction of Nicolas Sarkozy, president of France. Sarkozy got into a feud with UK prime minister David Cameron over a tax on financial transactions. Then under pressure from French banks withdrew support of the tax.

For a wrap-up, please see Triumph of One and the Price of Arrogance; Merkozy Treaty to Fail on Legal Grounds; UK Should Thank Sarkozy

One might think that Sarkozy would have had enough of self-inflicted damage, but one would be totally wrong. Flip-Flop, Flip-Flop is back again to flip.

Sarkozy to Announce VAT Increase of 1.6 Points, Introduce Tobin Tax

Via Google translate from Le Monde, please consider Sarkozy will announce Sunday a VAT increase of 1.6 points

Nicolas Sarkozy was expected to announce Sunday night a VAT increase of 1.6 point, we learn from several sources. VAT standard rate will be increased to 21.2%, a record in France. This increase is more limited than expected, will ease the burden on labor. This VAT is to take effect this year. The reduced rate would remain unchanged.

There will be no increase in the rate of the CSG on wages, an increase of taxation on property as possible.

The President will also announce the introduction of a Tobin tax to the French, a stamp duty extended. The implementing rules are not yet clear.

Companies with more than 250 employees, forced to have 4% of apprenticeship contracts will be subject to heavy penalties for noncompliance.

Why should the UK want to subject itself to this flip-flopping jackass? The appropriate thing for Cameron to do would be to stay as far away from Sarkozy as he can.

Cardinal Rule of Allies

Hard-line socialist candidate François Hollande is arguably a greater fool, but at least he would be easier to ignore, and more importantly, a person less likely to flip-flop.

It is better to have an enemy you can trust than an alleged ally that you can't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greeks Reject German Plan for EU Budget Commissioner; On the Verge of a Deal, Yet Again; Political Reality

Posted: 28 Jan 2012 04:50 PM PST

Europe has been on the "verge" of a deal for two weeks. However, a deal is meaningless if Germany insists on budget controls. Actually a deal now is meaningless even if Germany does back down because at some point Greek politicians will have had enough. Here are the latest stories.

Yahoo! Finance reports Greece, creditors on verge of clinching debt deal

Greece and its private creditors said on Saturday they were piecing together the final elements of a debt swap and expected to have a deal ready next week, essential for sealing a new bailout and avoiding an uncontrolled default.

After muddling through round after round of inconclusive talks, the negotiations are in their final phase - though it appeared unlikely that a preliminary deal would be secured in time for a European Union summit on Monday.

Greek bondholders said the two sides were finalising a deal along the lines of a proposal made by Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers.

The bondholders' comments suggested creditors had accepted Juncker's demand for a coupon, or interest rate, of below 4 percent on new, longer-dated bonds that Athens will swap for existing debt.

Greeks Reject German Plan for EU Budget Commissioner

It would be foolish to throw another 130 billion euros down the Greek rathole, but if Germany backs down it could happen.

The BBC reports Greeks reject German plan for EU budget commissioner

Greek officials have reacted angrily to a leaked German proposal for an EU budget commissioner with veto powers over Greek taxes and spending.

The Greek government said it must remain in control of its own budget.

The European Commission says it wants to reinforce its monitoring of Greek finances, but Greece should retain sovereign control.

Under the German proposal, a budget commissioner would have veto powers over Greek budgetary measures if they were not in line with targets set by international lenders.

Greece would also legally commit itself to servicing its debt, before spending any money in any other way.

"Given the disappointing compliance so far, Greece has to accept shifting budgetary sovereignty to the European level for a certain period of time," the Financial Times quotes the German plan as saying.

Under the proposals, European institutions already operating in Greece should be given "certain decision-making powers" over fiscal policy, a German official told the Reuters news agency. He was speaking on condition of anonymity.

The austerity measures have angered many Greeks. In Athens on Friday, protesters tried to blockade inspectors from the "troika" of institutional lenders - the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) - into their hotel.

Elections in Greece are due to take place in April.

Political Reality

Mark Lowen BBC News, Athens provides additional color commentary.

In reality, Greece's finances are already to a large extent controlled by foreign forces. The debt-stricken country has received enormous bailouts from the EU and IMF conditional on deep cuts and fiscal reforms drawn up largely by officials in Brussels.

This new German proposal is clearly prompted by the widespread concerns that Greece is not succeeding in bringing its budget into order. Reforms have been slow and the budget deficit remains above target.

But ceding more control to Brussels would be deeply unpopular here. Most Greeks are against the austerity programme demanded by the EU and IMF.

And much popular anger is directed at Germany as Europe's paymaster general. The fact that Berlin has raised this latest plan won't soften sentiments here.

The popularity of technocrat, temporary prime minister Lucas Papademos has plunged from 75% to 8%. Greek citizens are clearly fed up. Anger is going to erupt big time soon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Triumph of One and the Price of Arrogance; Merkozy Treaty to Fail on Legal Grounds; UK Should Thank Sarkozy

Posted: 28 Jan 2012 11:39 AM PST

The arrogance of French president (soon to be ex-president) Nicolas Sarkozy is about to bite the Eurocrat nanny-zone officials big time.

In December, Sarkozy insisted on a financial transaction tax and other concessions that the UK alone would not sign. In what was billed as a triumph of 26 of 27 is soon going to be viewed as a triumph of one over 26.

The Merkozy treaty that 26 nations signed can never legally fly.

Triumph of One

Der Spiegel reports Critics Question Merkel's Fiscal Pact Proposal

The final decision is planned for the next European Union summit on Monday. There leaders from 26 of the 27 member states plan to finalize the new fiscal pact, the agreement pushed hard by Chancellor Angela Merkel requiring signatories to adhere to strict fiscal policy guidelines.

But the high expectations awakened by Merkel are unlikely to be fulfilled. Several elements in the agreement are of questionable legality. It can't be written as an EU treaty because Great Britain won't sign it, which means it will only be an "inter-governmental agreement" between the 17 euro-zone countries and a handful of other countries participating voluntarily.

It's turning out to be a big handicap. On the one hand, the European Commission's hands are tied, because it can only act on behalf of all 27 EU members. Despite Merkel's wish, the Commission cannot legally take those that violate budgetary rules to the European Court of Justice. According to the fiscal pact proposal, national governments can only do this among themselves. But no country has ever taken legal action against another in EU history. Such a case would be seen as a gross violation of diplomatic etiquette.

Court Authority in Question

Even if it comes to that, the authority of the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) remains in question. The treaty proposal states that the Luxembourg judges can impose fines of up to 0.1 percent of a country's GDP if they don't properly anchor the debt brake in their national law.

But these sanctions aren't actually provided for by EU law. In fact, they deviate from Article 126 of the Lisbon Treaty. And, according to Matthias Ruffert, a European law expert at the University of Jena, it is likely that all 27 EU members will have to ratify the fiscal pact for any ECJ sanctions to be binding.

Other lawyers argue that the sanctions would not be as binding as other ECJ verdicts. Because the fiscal pact terms involve only an intergovernmental agreement, they aren't EU law, which means they don't automatically come before national law, says European law expert Ronan McCrea, from University College London. Thus, in the case of an emergency, it would be easier for a national government to disregard such a verdict.

Another issue that EU leaders must resolve on Monday is who will be allowed to attend future EU summits. The fiscal pact proposal states that the President of the European Parliament can be invited. But this doesn't go far enough for representatives of the people, who think he or she should be automatically present, in addition to presidents of the European Commission, the European Council and the European Central Bank.

For most observers of the EU summit, the fiscal pact is only interesting as a side issue. In fact, many see it as nothing more than one of Merkel's pet ideas, and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean Asselborn even went so far as to tell SPIEGEL ONLINE in a recent interview that it was a "waste of time and energy."

UK Should Thank Sarkozy

British Prime Minister David Cameron would actually have signed that fool treaty has it not been for the crap Sarkozy tried to force down Cameron's throat. It would have been a big mistake.

Thus, British citizens should thank Sarkozy, because it was Sarkozy's arrogance that doomed the treaty. A humorous irony is that six days ago Sarkozy Dumps Financial Transaction Tax After Pressure From Banks.

Kiss Sarkozy Goodbye

Because of numerous gaffs, Sarkozy will not be reelected. Indeed, he may not even survive the first round of voting. On January 19, I reported Le Pen Inches Closer to Bumping Off Sarkozy in First Round of French Elections; Interesting Crossover Vote Opportunity for Hollande Supporters to Dump Sarkozy.

On January 21, The Guardian reported Marine Le Pen and France's Front National sense their time has come

The conjunction of the eurozone crisis, the loss of France's triple-A credit rating, and rampant unemployment, currently at a 12-year high, has given unexpected credibility to Le Pen's anti-Europe, anti-immigration stance. The economic storm has created what political pundits and pollsters believe may be a now-or-never moment for the Front National after 40 years spent largely in the political backwaters.

Poll after poll places Le Pen third with 21.5%, hovering just behind Sarkozy at 23.5%, and with the Socialist party's François Hollande well in the lead for the first round of the presidential vote in April. If the opinion polls are accurate, it is perfectly feasible, allowing for the accepted margin of error, for Le Pen to reach the second-round run-off a fortnight later. Some surveys show support for the FN candidate to be considerably higher, topping 30%.

The days when the FN, then run by Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie, now 83, could be dismissed as the loony fringe of French politics have long gone. Some of its policies have been anxiously emulated by Sarkozy's government as it shifts to the right, giving them a mainstream respectability.

UK Wins Regardless

The UK wins if Le Pen wins because if she wins the Eurozone breaks up. That would be a good thing in my opinion. However, Le Pen is not going to win.

Hard-line socialist François Hollande is going to win regardless of who the final two candidates are in the election. Sarkozy has made too many mistakes and the socialists will never vote for Le Pen.

Socialist Hollande is likey worse than centrist Sarkozy. The saving grace however, is Hollande has promised to rework the Merkozy treaty which would doom the whole thing, signed by 26 or not.

Thus, the whole mess will soon come flying apart unless Cameron snatches defeat from the jaws of a "Triumph of One" victory by signing a revised treaty before the French presidential elections.

In the meantime. expect more Bickering Over Who's at the "Three-Speed" European Table.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Bickering Over Who's at the "Three-Speed" European Table

Posted: 28 Jan 2012 09:42 AM PST

Last month, in an effort to snub the British and prime minister Cameron who would not go along with the Tobin Tax concept, French president Nicolas Sarkozy forced through a rule change that excluded non-euro member nations from sitting at the table.

This move has ruffled the feathers of Poland who thinks it should be at the table. Please consider Poland bristles at idea of 'invitation-only' summits

"If Poland does not obtain the appropriate status as a participant in meetings of the eurozone that give the feeling that we are participating in a certain part of the decision-making process… then it will be difficult for us to sign the fiscal pact," Mr Tusk [Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minster] said this week. "We will not accept such a model."

The principal opponent of the Polish move, diplomats said, has been France, where president Nicolas Sarkozy has long viewed the new pact as a way to create a "two-speed Europe", with eurozone countries moving into a tighter subgroup as the remaining 10 nations gradually become less integrated with their brethren in the single currency.

French objections centre around Poland's unwillingness to be subject to the treaty's main elements – a series of debt and deficit limits that will be enforced by fines, which would now only affect eurozone members – and to contribute to the eurozone's new €500bn bail-out system. Without shouldering such burdens, France has argued, Poland should not be allowed at the table.

Last year, Mr Tusk angrily rebuffed a Franco-German "pact for the euro" which would have had eurozone members commit to budget and economic measures that went beyond current EU strictures. Eventually, the agreement was renamed the "euro-plus pact" and Poland, along with some other non-euro countries, became signatories.

Three Speed Europe

Clearly we have the Euro Pact, the Euro-Plus Pact, and the 27-nation EU-Pact. That sounds like three tables to me. Poland demanded the topic be debated on Monday in a gathering of European heads of state. The Financial Times says the "prospect could lead to another summit that stretches late into the night."

I say count on it. If there is another disagreement on a major issue will there be a 4th table? Meanwhile, I have to ask why the British would want to be at any table.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Capital Account: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish

Posted: 28 Jan 2012 12:35 AM PST

I was on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster once again on Friday. She was covering the economic forum in Davos so the interview was with Demetri Kofinas. I come in about the 17 minute mark.

Link if video does not play: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish

I believe the "RT" channel is picked up on Comcast but I could not find it on ATT U-verse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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