joi, 3 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Comments from Brazil on Brazil and China: Nonperforming Loans Soar, Recession in Brazil Arrived, China will Follow

Posted: 03 May 2012 08:46 AM PDT

This morning I received an email from Otavio who lives in Brazil. Otavio writes ...
Hi Mish,

Hello from Brazil. Much of what we both expected has begun to occur in Brazil since we exchanged emails last year. The economy has slowed down greatly. We are on the brink of a recession here, if not in recession already.

Nonperforming loans have risen pretty much on banks' balance sheets causing bank stocks to plunge. Check out ITUB US Equity on Bloomberg. The Brazilian middle class is very much sunk in debt.

The BACEN (Brazilian Central Bank) has cut overnight rates from 12 percent to 9 percent, but the market expects at least another 100 bps cut in the next two months. These aggressive rate cuts, plus massive interventions in the FX market to sell Brazilian REAL, have weakened the REAL from 1.70 to 1.93 per USD.

The government has also instructed public banks to lower their lending rates. It's our own Brazilian version of QE here.

However, the economy is showing signs of weakness. Just today, Industrial Production came out at -0.5 percent but economists predicted an increase of 1.2 percent.

Our economy has been strongly correlated with China's in the last decade. If we are this close to a recession in Brazil, the slowdown in China will be far more than most expect.

Regards Otavio
Brazilian Banks Drop on Delinquency Concern

A quick check of ITUB on Bloomberg turned up Bovespa Declines as Brazilian Banks Drop on Delinquency Concern
Apr 25, 2012 3:42 PM CT

The Bovespa stock index declined as Itau Unibanco SA (ITUB) led Brazilian banks lower after it said it expects losses from bad loans to rise in the second quarter.

Itau, Latin America's biggest bank by market value, was the worst performer on the MSCI Brazil/Financials Index, which fell the most among 10 industry groups. OGX Petroleo (OGXP3) & Gas Participacoes SA gained the most in four months after it said an oil field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro was declared commercially viable.

The Bovespa dropped 0.4 percent to 61,750.38 at the close in Sao Paulo. The real weakened 0.1 percent to 1.8800 per U.S. dollar at 5:32 p.m. local time.

Itau expects to spend as much as 6.4 billion reais in bad - loan provisions in the second quarter, up from 6 billion reais in the first three months of 2012, according to a regulatory filing today. Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4)'s delinquency rate may rise 10 basis points in the second quarter, executive director Luiz Carlos Angelotti said in a conference call yesterday.

"These alerts from banks regarding expectations of rising delinquency rates really scared investors," Pedro Paulo Silveira, chief economist at TOV Corretora, said by telephone from Sao Paulo. "Considering interest rates are decreasing and the economy is slowing down, banks may see their revenue fall as well."
ITUB Chart



Brazil Manufacturing PMI in Contraction

Inquiring minds are investigating the HSBC Brazil Manufacturing PMI™ published May 2.
Both output and new orders fall for first time in 2012 so far



Andre Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC said: "The HSBC Manufacturing PMI index fell to a four month low of 49.3 in April, from 51.1 in March. This was the first PMI manufacturing reading below 50 in 2012, signalling a contraction of activity in the industrial sector.

Broken down, numbers show a broad-based decline in industrial activity, with all components falling below 50, except for both input and output prices which accelerated relative to one month ago (and with output prices reaching the highest level of growth since May 2011). Concurrently, inflationary pressures should remain a source of concern, despite the string of benign CPI readings earlier this year."
If Brazil weakens further as I expect, the country is already in recession. Moreover, the much beloved BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and emerging markets in general will not be good hiding places.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


When All Else Fails, Hope For More Stimulus

Posted: 03 May 2012 07:34 AM PDT

Eurozone Markit Final Manufacturing PMI numbers were released yesterday. The results, as I warned months in advance, were decidedly not pretty.

  • Final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 34-month low of 45.9 
  • Production declines across big-four economies for first time in the year-to-date 
  • Weak demand and falling intra-Eurozone trade volumes hurting both output and employment



The weak PMI number reflected a drop in Eurozone manufacturing production for the second consecutive month, as new order inflows declined at the fastest pace since December. Austria was the only nation to see production rise in April.

Manufacturers reported weak demand from both domestic and export clients – with intra-Eurozone trade volumes also heavily impacted. This hurt even German manufacturers, who saw production fall for the first time in 2012-to-date as an accelerated rate of decline in new export volumes reverberated through the sector.

Further causes for concern were sharper rates of decline in output at Italian and Spanish manufacturers, plus an ongoing steep downturn in Greece. Meanwhile, French manufacturing output contracted at a weaker pace than that seen in March.
Finally Seeing the Light (Sort Of)

Once again the comments from Markit Economists are amusing. 
Even German manufacturing output showed a renewed decline, attributed by many firms to weak demand from southern Europe. As such, it is hard to see where growth will come from in coming months, unless export demand picks up strongly from countries outside of the Eurozone.

"The ECB's latest forecast of merely a slight contraction of GDP this year is therefore already looking optimistic. However, with the survey also showing inflationary pressures to have waned, the door may be opening for further stimulus."
Note the word "latest". Months ago, Markit said no recession, then no recession in Germany, then short recession. For some reason Markit only mentioned the ECB's latest forecasts and none of their own.

With that highlight in red (emphasis mine), Markit chief economist Chris Williamson finally got it right (had he only stopped right there). Instead, he is now hoping for more stimulus as if it would matter.

Here's a hint: it won't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Berkeley Ridiculously Automated Dorm (BRAD) Video

Posted: 02 May 2012 08:38 PM PDT



At the University of California at Berkeley, freshman Derek Low carried out a mission to create what he called "the most ridiculously automated dorm room in the school ever." The result is "BRAD" (Berkeley Ridiculously Automated Dorm), which employs motion sensors to detect when someone enters or exits the room, as well as the ability to control the lights, window shades, and music via voice controls and mobile apps. An emergency red "party mode" button was also provided, which closes the shades, turns on dance music and replaces the overhead lights with flashing neon lighting and strobes.


Via: Techcrunch


Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites Graywolf's SEO Blog

Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites Graywolf's SEO Blog


Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites

Posted: 02 May 2012 09:20 AM PDT

Post image for Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites

I recently wrote a story How Brick and Mortar Stores Can Use eCommerce to Drive Sales about tips that eCommerce stores can use to drive traffic to their brick and mortar locations. However, what really needs to happen is offline stores and small businesses need to grow up and  stop hiding in the corner from online commerce bogeyman. They need to give up their antiquated who moved my cheese mentality. It’s a fact that consumers’ preference for eCommerce stores will continue to grow, smart phone and tablet shopping will continue to rise, and merchants who don’t recognize this trend will fail. The first will be the small local stores followed by strip mall tenants but, at the end of the day, no one including big box retailers like Best Buy is immune. No one is too big to fail.

So what do small local businesses going to do to need to compete:

offline stores  and small businesses need to grow up and stop hiding in the corner from online commerce bogeyman…
 Make sure your website is mobile friendly. In fact, if you don’t have a mobile website, IMHO you need to make having a mobile website your number 1 priority. You need to do it properly with a one URL implementation strategy. Mobile subdomains and mobile sub folders create more trouble down the road than the time you save at the beginning, so don’t go down that route. If you do you’ll be contacting me–or someone like me–to clean up the mess you inadvertently created because you wanted to save a little time in getting up-to-speed as fast as possible.

Your website has to be more than a 20 page brochure-ware website. You can’t show up to the Indy 500 in a stock, off the floor Toyota Camry and expect to compete or ever win. Be smart. “Find your spike” that makes you stand out from everyone else and embrace it:

Don’t strive to be a balanced, well rounded merchant; embrace your uniqueness and the customers who are looking for it. Studies have shown that people on dating sites who embrace their unique beauty and set themselves apart from what is considered traditionally attractive do much better at finding dates and long term partners.

If your website isn’t important enough for you to pay attention to it, why do you think Google’s ranking algorithm will compute that you deserve to show up in a search engine result… 
Do a content audit on a regular basis. Create as much evergreen content as possible and update evergreen content as needed. Engage in predictive SEO spot and jump on trends. Write, add, build, and create new content on a regular basis. Don’t add content to meet a quota; add content because you have something of value to add to the conversation. If your website isn’t important enough for you to pay attention to it and help it nurture and grow, why do you think Google’s ranking algorithm will magically compute that you deserve to show up in a search engine result … for anything.

Engage in social media … regularly. Social media is a time consuming aspect of marketing. Unfortunately, small businesses can’t afford to ignore it anymore. You don’t need to spend all day on Twitter: look for tools that allow you to spend less time on social media sites and be more effective with the time you do spend.

Don’t get in a position where you are dependent on Google to survive. Diversify your income stream and pipeline for traffic, leads, and customers. While I’m a zero inbox type of person, and creating and sending out email messages fills me with overwhelming level of self loathing, the depths of which you will never understand, I firmly grasp that it’s a necessary evil to survive. It’s simply impossible to make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. Just do it in a way that adds value for your customers and doesn’t clog up their inbox with useless drivel. By building a firm social media fan base, cultivating your customer engagement, and implementing a proactive outbound marketing channel strategy, you will be sending Google the social validation they are looking for, and you’ll be immune to Panda Updates, Penguin updates, or whatever naming structure Google finally gives its algorithm changes.

photo credit: BigStockPhoto/Olly2

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Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites

Does Your Small Business Need a Facebook and Twitter Social Media Account

Posted: 04 Apr 2012 09:50 AM PDT

Post image for Does Your Small Business Need a Facebook and Twitter Social Media Account

It’s 2012 and social media and social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook are constantly mentioned on mainstream media, news and entertainment websites, and broadcast programs. Print ads for everything from movies to toothpaste have those ubiquitous little Facebook and Twitter logos, hashtags, and often special social media vanity URLs. The question is does your business need to be involved in social media, is it worth the time, what’s the benefit, and is there ROI somewhere at the end of the tunnel?

At the current time, in my opinion, there simply isn’t an excuse for your company not to be involved in social media. In 2011 SEOMoz did a study and showed social media helped with SEO efforts. In early 2012 Search Engine Land showed that 20% of all searches had a author icon result in it (see How to Create a Google Author Profile for more information). With an enhanced listing, if you aren’t using social media as tool to get a rich snippet in the SERPs and your competition is, you are playing from a disadvantage.

if you aren’t using social media as tool to get a rich snippet in the SERPs and your competition is, you are playing from a disadvantage…
 Smart marketers have realized SEO and Search engines are only one channel of an overall marketing strategy. You should be using email marketing, print, SEO, and social media combined to make your website immune to algorithm updates. IMHO this social validation is now part of Google’s algorithm and, if you aren’t engaging in more than one type of marketing, Google is going to notice it–or, more to the point, not notice it–and your website will suffer.

It’s not simply a matter of having social profiles on all the prominent and important social websites. It’s being involved that counts too. Use social services like KnowEm to secure your profiles to prevent any trademark issues. Test and try each of the platforms to see where your customers are, where you get the most engagement, where you get the most traffic, where you get the most links, and, most importantly, where you get the most sales. Once you know which channel is most effective, interlink the rest. Crosspost from your Twitter profile to Facebook if that’s what works for you. If Facebook works better, crosspost to Twitter. If Pinterest is what drives your traffic, then focus your efforts on creating the most crazy awesome wedding board you can create. As Steve Martin says “Be So Good They Can’t Ignore You.”

Unless you happen to be in a very specialized niche, chances are good that Facebook or Twitter is where you’ll find most of your audience. Google Plus is ghost town unless you are chasing Web 2.0 weenies (or Google employees … yeah I went there). If you get traffic from other social sites and want to enable cross posting, look into services like If This Then That to try to automate the process and remove the grunt manual labor. Automate your primary feed and, with cross posting and scheduled posts from Hootsuite and/or Bufferapp, you’ll be spending less than a hour a day publishing on social media. Thanks to services like Tweriod, you’ll have some idea when those ideal times are without having to be chained to your desk to reach your optimal audience. Just remember that customer service is now an integral part of social media. Use it as a contact starting point to take the discussion offline or out of the public eye whenever possible. It’s not that you’re hiding; it’s that you don’t need to broadcast every part of every customer interaction.

In my opinion, having your links pass through social media channels, whether the links are nofollowed or not, creating the corresponding user data, and developing trusted author accounts are the three biggest areas you have the most to gain from by using social media. In my opinion, those are the three areas you should spend your time on.

photo credit: BigStockPhoto/iofoto.com

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  2. BOTW.org - Get a premier listing in the internet's oldest directory.
  3. Ezilon.com Regional Directory - Check to see if your website is listed!
  4. Need an SEO Audit for your website, look at my SEO Consulting Services
  5. Directory Journal - Get permanent deep links in a search engine friendly directory
  6. TigerTech - Great Web Hosting service at a great price.
  7. Article-Writing-services.org - Article Writing Services creates quality content for websites and blogs at no cost to site owners.
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Does Your Small Business Need a Facebook and Twitter Social Media Account

Penguins, Pandas, and Panic at the Zoo

Penguins, Pandas, and Panic at the Zoo


Penguins, Pandas, and Panic at the Zoo

Posted: 02 May 2012 11:46 AM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

Google’s war on lovable critters escalated on April 24th with the release of the “Penguin” update (originally dubbed the “webspam update” by Google). While every major algorithm update causes some protest, post-Penguin panic seems to be at near record levels, worsened by weeks of speculation about an “over-optimization” penalty. Webmasters and SEOs are understandably worried, and many have legitimately lost traffic and revenue. Before you go out and burn your website to the ground for fear of a penguin in the pantry, I want to offer some advice on how to handle life after an algorithm update.

1. What We Know

First, let’s review what we know. I’m going to break the rules of blogging and recommend that you stop and read this level-headed Penguin post by Danny Sullivan. It covers some of the basics and is the most speculation-free post I’ve read on the subject so far. Glenn Gabe also had a good post on potential Penguin factors.  There’s still a lot of speculation, but likely culprits include:

  • Aggressive exact-match anchor text
  • Overuse of exact-match domains
  • Low-quality article marketing & blog spam
  • Keyword stuffing in internal/outbound links

Many people have suggested low-quality link profiles in general, but analysis of Panda has been complicated by Google’s recent attack on link networks, which seems to have been manual and has probably been going on for weeks. The overlap has made analysis difficult, so let’s take a quick look at the timeline.

What’s the Timeline?

The official roll-out date for Penguin was April 24th, and it seems to have rolled out, for the most part, in a single day. Unfortunately, it came on the heels of other events. On April 19th, Panda 3.5 rolled out (most likely a data update). On April 16th, a data glitch caused a number of sites to be mistakenly tagged as parked domains. Throughout April (and weeks before Penguin), Google started sending out a large number of unnatural link notices via Google Webmaster Tools. Sadly, it seems that April really was the cruelest month.

How Bad Was It?

Google officially claimed that Penguin impacted about 3.1% of English queries, compared to Panda 1.0’s 12%. Since rankings change daily – even hourly – even with no updates, these numbers are nearly impossible to confirm, but it does appear that the impact of Penguin was immediate and substantial. This is an internal SEOmoz graph of Top 10 ranking changes around April 24th (please note that the Y-axis is scaled to accentuate changes):

Graph of Top 10 changes (Penguin vs. Panda 3.5)

Pardon the slightly cryptic nature of this graph – it’s for an upcoming project – but the core point is that the impact of Penguin dwarfed either Panda 3.5 or Google’s 4/16 glitch.

Is It Going Away?

In a word: no. Penguin wasn’t accidental, and Google is clearly serious about combatting spam tactics that have been lingering for too long. As you can see from the graph, it doesn’t appear that there were any major reversals in the few days since Penguin rolled out. Does that mean Google won’t make ANY adjustments? Of course not – it’s entirely likely that they’ll continue to tweak Penguin.

For comparison’s sake, remember that Panda 3.5 came 14 months after the initial launch of Panda 1.0. We’ve come a long way since the monthly “Google Dances” of 2003. Keep in mind, though, that Panda was somewhat unique – we believe that it feeds multiple variables into a single ranking factor that gets updated outside of the real-time index. There’s currently no compelling evidence to suggest that Penguin works in the same way. The Penguin update appears to be integrated directly into the main algorithm, like a more traditional Google update.

2. What to Do

Given the overlapping timelines, this advice applies to any Google update, and not just Penguin. The algorithm is changing constantly (Google reported 516 changes in 2010, and that rate seems to be accelerating), and I want to give you the tools to survive not just Penguin, but Zebra, Skunk, Orca, and any other black-and-white animals Google can ruin…

DO Take a Deep Breath

I’m not trying to be condescending or to minimize any losses you may have suffered. Over 17 years of working with clients, I’ve learned that panic almost never makes things better. No matter how hard Penguin hit you, you need to stop, take a breath, and assess the damage. Dig into your analytics and find out exactly where you sustained losses. Segment your data (by channel, engine, keyword, and page) as much as possible. It’s not enough to know that you lost traffic – you need to be an expert on exactly which traffic you lost.

DO Check the Timeline

Even though the overlapping timelines make analyzing the core Penguin factors difficult, the actual timeline when Penguin rolled out is clear. If you saw major traffic losses between Thursday, April 24th and Friday, April 25th, odds are good that Penguin is at least part of the problem.

DO Double-check IT Issues

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been involved in a Q&A or consulting situation where a website owner was 100% sure they had been hit by an algorithm update, only to have their 17th message to me go something like this:

Oh, by the way, our site was down for 3 days a couple of weeks ago, right before our rankings dropped. I’m sure this wasn’t the problem, but I just thought I’d let you know.

Um, erp, what?! I’ve died a little inside so many times from messages like this that I’m not sure that I’m technically still human. Especially if your losses weren’t sudden or don’t match the algorithm timeline precisely, make absolutely sure that nothing happened to your site or changed that could impact Google’s crawlers. One of the worst things you can do in SEO is to spend a small fortune solving the wrong problem.

DO Quickly Audit Your SEO

Likewise, make sure that you know exactly what SEO efforts are underway, not just within your own team but across any 3rd-party contractors. I’ve had clients swear up and down that everything they did was completely white-hat only to find out weeks later that they hired an outside link-building firm and let them loose with no accountability. Make absolutely sure you know what every agent under your control did in the weeks leading up to the algorithm update.

3. What Not to Do

Panic leads to drastic action, and while I don’t think you should sit on your hands, bad choices made under uninformed hysteria can make a bad situation much, much worse. I’m not speaking hypothetically – I’ve seen businesses destroyed by overreacting to an algorithm change. Here are a few words of advice, once you’ve taken that deep breath (don’t forget to start breathing again)…

DON’T Take a Hatchet to Your Links

It’s unclear how Penguin may have penalized links, or if recent reports of link-related issues are tied to other April changes, but regardless of the cause, the worst thing you can do is to start simply hacking at your back-links. Even low-quality back-links can, in theory, help you, and if you start cutting links that aren’t causing you problems, you could see your rankings drop even farther.

I highly recommend this recent interview with Jim Boykin, because Jim has freely admitted to dabbling in the gray arts and he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to risky link-building. Tackling your problem links is incredibly tough, but start with the worst culprits:

  • Known, obvious paid links
  • Links in networks Google has recently delisted
  • Footer links with exact-match anchor text
  • Other site-wide links with exact-match anchors

Whenever possible, deal with low-authority links first. If a link is passing very little authority AND it’s suspicious, it’s a no-brainer. Cutting links is tough (see my tips on removing bad links) – if you don’t have control over a link, you may have to let it go and focus on positive link-building going forward.

DON’T “De-optimize” Without a Plan

One complaint I hear a lot in Q&A is that the “wrong” page is ranking for a term. So, to get the “right” page to rank, the well-meaning SEO starts de-optimizing the page that’s currently ranking. This usually means turning a decent TITLE tag into a mess and cutting out keywords to leave behind Swiss-cheese copy. Sometimes, the “right” page starts ranking again. Other times, they lose both pages and their traffic.

“Over-optimize” is a terrible phrase, and that alone has people in a panic. There’s nothing “optimal” about jamming a keyword 87 times into 500 words of copy and linking it to the same affiliate site. “Over-gaming” would be a better word. You think you figured out the rules of the game, so you pounded on them until there was nothing but a pile of dust on the board.

If you think you’ve played the game too aggressively, step back and look at the big picture. Does your content serve a purpose? Does your anchor text match the intent of the target? Do your pages exist because they need to or only to target one more long-tail variations of a term? Don’t de-optimize your on-page SEO – re-optimize it into something better.

DON’T Submit a Reconsideration Request

While I don’t think reconsideration will doom you, Penguin is an algorithmic change, not a manual penalty, and reconsideration is not an appropriate avenue. If you think you were impacted by the recent crackdown on link networks, IF you have removed those links, and IF you aren’t engaged in other suspicious link-building, you might consider requesting reconsideration. Just make sure your house is in order first.

Google has created a form for sites unfairly hit by Penguin, but it’s unclear at this point whether that form will result in manual action, or if Google is just collecting broad quality data. If you sincerely believe that you’re an accidental victim, then feel free to fill the form out, but don’t base your entire recovery strategy on clicking [Submit].

Fix What You Can Fix

Recently, I had a long debate with a client about whether or not they had been hit by a specific algorithm update. In the end, it was a pointless debate (for both of us), because we had two clear facts: (1) organic traffic had fallen precipitously, and (2) there were clear, solvable problems with the site. From a diagnostic standpoint, it definitely helps to know whether you were hit by Penguin or another update, but after that, you have to fix what's in your power to fix. Don't spend weeks trying to prove to management that this was all Google's fault. Isolate the damage, find the problems you can fix, and get to work fixing them.


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Drive Failures Affecting Some Customers' Rankings and Reports

Posted: 02 May 2012 08:00 AM PDT

Posted by Thomas McElroy

Late Sunday night through Monday, the harddrives responsible for most of our rankings system failed. These failures have resulted in slower rankings collection, but has not resulted in lost data.

What does this mean for customers?

The main features that have been affected are Web App Rankings and Reports. In the Web App, rankings may not update on the same day that they’ve historically updated. You’ll know when your rankings were last updated by going to the “Rankings” tab and looking underneath the “Keyword Rankings” subtitle.

 

Keyword rankings

If you’ve set up a customized report, you might not have received your report as soon as you expected to receive it. If you did receive a report and it included a rankings section, one or more of the subsections might have been blank:

blank reports

These features were intermittently failing because the data was on the affected drives, but as of right now, these should now be functioning, albeit possibly more slowly than normal:

  • Campaign ranking history
  • Campaign ranking history CSV exports
  • The Keyword Analysis Tool
  • Custom Reports that include rankings data

For more technical details, please see this post on the dev blog.

When will it be fixed?

We are currently prioritizing the collection of keywords in the order they would normally be collected, which means all rankings collection will be delayed for customers this week. We expect this catch-up process to complete by the end of the week, returning us to normal at that point. Our current expectation is that rankings will be delayed 2-3 days for all campaigns, until we can catch up this weekend.

We are still working to resolve this issue and will update this post every morning until the issue is resolved. We sincerely apologize if these failures affect your work as we know how much you depend on our tools. If you have any questions, please leave a comment below and we’ll try to respond quickly.


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