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duminică, 20 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fear vs. Anger: Door-to-Door Fear-Mongering in Ireland on Merkozy Referendum; Expect Fear-Mongering in Greece as Well

Posted: 20 May 2012 10:07 AM PDT

Door-to-Door May Drive Irish Towards Yes Vote in Referendum on Merkozy Pact.

In a hard-fought battle to convince Irish voters to back Europe's unpopular fiscal discipline treaty, Ireland's deputy finance minister has the task of convincing the leafy Dublin suburb of Templeogue.

Going door-to-door, Brian Hayes faces scepticism and occasional abuse. One constituent calls him "a waste of space", another "just a yes man".

"If Greece goes down we are next in the firing line. I know people who are trying to put their money into US dollars. We just don't know what is going to happen here," says Mr O'Reilly.

"This referendum is all about fear on the one side and anger on the other," says David Farrell, professor of politics at University College Dublin. "Most people have no great deal of enthusiasm for it and will only vote reluctantly in this referendum."

"The sight of soup kitchens in Greece on TV screens is concentrating minds," says Mr Hayes, as he goes door-to-door hammering home his message.

The dominant theme of the campaign so far is a claim by the government that rejecting the treaty would bar Ireland from receiving funds from Europe's new bailout fund – the European Stability Mechanism. Without this insurance policy, Dublin says, Ireland will struggle to exit its EU and International Monetary Fund bailout programme on schedule at the end of 2013.

"The government is scaremongering rather than arguing the merits of the treaty. Most people are opposed to this treaty but are scared out of their wits," says Paul Murphy, a Socialist member of the European Parliament and prominent No campaigner.

Nothing bad can possibly happen if this treaty is rejected. Accepting more bailout funds from the IMF or ESM would be the absolute worst thing for Ireland.

Indeed, accepting funds from the Troika is one of the things that destroyed Greece, and it is pathetic that clueless, brainless, scare-mongering political shills for Brussels are now going door-to-door in an attempt to convince Irish voters the exact opposite.

Heading into the Greek June 17 national elections, expect to see door-to-door fear-mongering in Greece as well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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First Time Ever - Majority of Unemployed Have Some College Education; Five Solutions to Education, Student-Loan Crisis

Posted: 19 May 2012 11:42 PM PDT

Those who think the answer to the unemployment problem is more education might be surprised to learn the Majority of Unemployed Attended College.

For the first time in history, the number of jobless workers age 25 and up who have attended some college now exceeds the ranks of those who settled for a high school diploma or less.

Out of 9 million unemployed in April, 4.7 million had gone to college or graduated and 4.3 million had not, seasonally adjusted Labor Department data show.

click on chart for sharper image

In 2011, 57% of those 25 and up had attended some college vs. 43% in 1992. Those without a high school diploma fell from 21% to 12% over that span.

But along with the increasing prevalence of college attendance has come a growing number of dropouts, who have left school burdened by student loan debt but without much to kick-start their careers.

Among everyone up to age 24 who has left college or earned a two-year degree — including those not actively searching — the full-time employment-to-population ratio has plummeted from 69% in 2000 to 62% in 2003 to 54%.

This has occurred even as student lending and enrollment at community colleges has soared, elevating the student loan crisis to the center of political debate and a rallying cry for the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Those who graduated with a four-year degree fared better employment-wise but many of those still struggle with student loans. Many other end up underemployed in retail sector jobs as opposed to the curriculum they studied.

Student loans are a trillion dollar problem, and growing every quarter. President Obama wants more student loans, but all that does is make many graduates debt slaves for the rest of their lives.

The cost of education is preposterous and the solutions are easy to describe.

Five Solutions

Kill federally funded student loan program entirely. Student loans do nothing but drive up the cost of education. Anyone can get a student loan because the loans are guaranteed and cannot be discharged in bankruptcy. The beneficiaries of this horrendous setup are teachers and administrators, not the kids receiving loans.
Kill state aid to colleges as well
Increase competition by accrediting more online universities, even foreign universities. This will drive down costs immensely.
Public unions are a huge part of the reason for driving up teacher salaries, so collective bargaining (collective coercion actually), must end.
High school counselors and parents must educate kids that there simply are no realistic chances for those graduating with degrees in political science, history, English, art, and literally dozens of other useless or nearly-useless majors.

The deflationary overhang of student debt is enormous. Those in debt will postpone buying homes, getting married, starting families, and spending money in general.

The only solution is to ensure kids to not get into massive debt in the first place. The way to achieve that is to drive down the cost of education.

Sadly the Obama administration (like many before it and many at the state level as well) has done nothing but throw money at the problem, rewarding unions and administrators while making debt slaves of kids as education costs spiral out of control.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : A true story

A true story

Of course, that's impossible.

There's no such thing as a true story. As soon as you start telling a story, making it relevant and interesting to me, hooking it into my worldviews and generating emotions and memories, it ceases to be true, at least if we define true as the whole truth, every possible fact, non-localized and regardless of culture.

Since you're going to tell a story, you might as well get good at it, focus on it and tell it in a way that you're proud of.

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sâmbătă, 19 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Apparel Sales by Price and Volume Provide Interesting Viewpoint

Posted: 19 May 2012 09:11 AM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace provides an interesting chart of apparel sales in the US by price and by unit volume. In this case, volume is likely the more telling statistic.

click on chart for sharper image

Tim writes ...

Hi Mish

As always, I am watching imports, especially with fascination the apparel imports. In the attached graph we see that dollars and units run mostly in slope lock-step until the crash of apparel demand in 2009.

In 2010 we see a significant "recovery". One thing about apparel is it does wear out, so a year like 2009 will cause pent-up demand in a following year. Price did not recover as much however.

2011 and the 12 month historical rolling numbers ended in March of 2012 (government data lags two months) is more interesting.

Dollar amounts continue to "recover" but the units measure has turned well downward again, in fact off 6% from 2010.

Looking at the monthly data from this time last year we see a continued degradation of the units amount every month, while the dollars amount trends up.

This is in effect apparel inflation, caused partially by raw materials. Cotton has been replaced in a significant percentage of products, stripping out demand and lowering that cost.

China lost some market share due to labor cost competition with Vietnam. However, China still dominates with 41.2% of market share, Vietnam second at 8.5%, then Bangladesh at 6.4% and Indonesia at 5.4%.

Thus 61.5% of all apparel imports come from only 4 countries.

Regards,

Tim

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Italy Deploys 20,000 Law Enforcement Officers to Protect Individuals and Sensitive Sites; Anecdotes From Italy via Canada: Taxed Out of House and Home

Posted: 19 May 2012 01:25 AM PDT

Italy Deploys 20,000 Law Enforcement Officers to Protect Individuals and Sensitive Sites

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports Italy deploys 20,000 to protect sensitive targets

Italy increased security Thursday at 14,000 sites, and assigned bodyguards to protect 550 individuals after a nuclear energy company official was shot and letter bombs directed to the tax collection agency.

Under the enhanced measures, Interior Minister Anna Maria Cancellieri deployed 20,000 law enforcement officers to protect individuals and sensitive sites. In addition, 4,200 military personnel already assigned throughout Italy will be redeployed according to new priorities.

Authorities will also increase intelligence to "neutralize" the risk of subversive actions "that can be nourished in moments of tension," the statement added.

Taxed Out of House and Home

In response to Tax Collection Violence in Italy: Mail Bombs in Rome, Police Clashes in Naples, Molotov Cocktails in Livorno I received an email from Frank who lives in Canada but owns property in Italy writes ...

Hello Mish

Trust me, it really is that bad.

I have a condo on the Adriatic in Italy, and lots of family still there. The local municipal property tax, called Imposta Comunale Immobili (ICI), is paid by anyone who owns property or land, whether they are a resident or not.

Recently, property taxes have gone up fast. Property is now being reassessed at the "real" value instead of the "official" (wink) value.

TV shows highlight the plight of elderly who have had to move out of their own homes into nursing homes because they could not pay property taxes.

My uncle has 6 apartments which he's owned for many years. He and his children live in 4 and he collects rent on the other 2 to live on. He is getting hammered.

He lived and worked in Canada most of his life but returned to Italy because his daughter married an Italian.

Now he desperately wants to return to Canada, but it's impossible to sell now.

Frank G.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Identical Twins Camille & Kennerly Perform Game of Thrones Theme on Harp

Posted: 18 May 2012 10:51 PM PDT

The Gorgeous Camille and Kennerly, A.K.A Harp Twins, played they're Electric Harps the intro to Game of Thrones theme (Electric Harp Duet).

It's dorky as all hell, especially since these are electric harps and they're in costume, but hot damn, it sounds great. Like the mid-90s PC role-playing game based on Game of Thrones we never got.

Weekly Address: Congress Must Move Forward, Not Back On Wall Street Reform

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, May 19, 2012

Weekly Address: Congress Must Move Forward, Not Back On Wall Street Reform

President Obama discusses the reforms to Wall Street that he put in place to protect consumers and make Wall Street play by the same set of rules -- and calls on lawmakers to finish implementing these reforms so that we can prevent excessive risk-taking and help create an economy that is built to last.

Watch the President's weekly address:

President Barack Obama tapes the Weekly Address in the Grand Foyer of the White House, May 16, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

Weekly Wrap Up

Your quick look at this week on Whitehouse.gov:

Fight for Your Seat: President Obama traveled to New York City to deliver his first commencement address of the year at Barnard College, one of the famous "Seven Sisters" private female liberal arts college. His first piece of advice to the graduates was: Don't just get involved. Fight for your seat at the table. Better yet, fight for a seat at the head of the table.”

Celebrating Soccer Champions: On Tuesday, President Obama welcomed the L.A. Galaxy to the White House to congratulate the team on their 2011 Major League Soccer Cup Championship. The star-studded team won a tough championship match after going undefeated at home all season long, and as President Obama noted, “You combined star power, hard work; it paid off.”

What Comes with the Badge: President Obama visited the U.S. Capitol for a ceremony where he paid tribute to law enforcement officials who were killed in the line of duty in the previous year. “Every American who wears the badge knows the burdens that come with it – the long hours and the stress; the knowledge that just about any moment could be a matter of life or death. You carry these burdens so the rest of us don’t have to,” the President said, acknowledging the bravery and sacrifice of all of those who serve as law enforcement officers across our country.

Above and Beyond: On Wednesday, President Obama awarded a Medal of Honor for valor above and beyond the call of duty to Leslie H. Sabo, Jr., an Army Specialist who died while serving in Cambodia in 1970. In honoring Sabo, who received the award posthumously, President Obama also paid tribute to those who served alongside him in the Vietnam era: “This medal is bestowed on a single soldier for his single courage. But it speaks to the service of an entire generation, and to the sacrifice of so many military families.”

Spruce Street at Taylor Gourmet: President Obama joined Small Business Administrator Karen Mills at Taylor Gourmet, a quickly expanding hoagie shop in Washington, D.C. for a roundtable with the business' owners. President Obama discussed his To-Do List for Congress which includes passing legislation to help hard working small business owners create jobs by giving them a tax credit for new hires and tax relief for investments they make.

Fighting Global Hunger: At Friday’s Symposium on Global Agriculture and Food Security, President Obama announced that leaders at the G8 meeting this weekend at Camp David would devote a special session to the chronic hunger facing nearly 1 billion people around the world. G8 and African leaders will launch a major new alliance with private sector partners with a clear goal of reducing hunger and lifting 50 million people out of poverty by investing in Africa’s agricultural economy.

West Wing Week: Your video guide to everything that's happened this week at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: Watch here.

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Seth's Blog : Where's the heat?

Where's the heat?

Is that your goal? To find the next hot thing? Do you want to buy it, sell it, use it, eat it?

In every industry where there's fashion (which is every industry), people spend an enormous amount of time looking for heat. It defines the cutting edge, determines what's in or out, what's hot or not.

Two things worth considering:

a. the hot thing isn't always the thing that's aligned with your goals. Sure, sometimes the most profitable item is also the hot item of the moment, but for many companies, market share or profitability or utility has not a lot to do with being on the cutting edge of fashion. And as a user, the hot item of the moment isn't necessarily the thing that will create value or even identify you as truly hip.

b. The cycle of hot keeps getting shorter.

You can chase this, but it's not free, and it might not get you where you want to go.

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duminică, 20 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : A true story

A true story

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 19 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Weekly Address: Congress Must Move Forward, Not Back On Wall Street Reform

Seth's Blog : Where's the heat?

Where's the heat?

More Recent Articles

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Arhivă blog

duminică, 20 mai 2012

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 19 mai 2012

More Recent Articles

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