Central Perk

miercuri, 13 iunie 2012

Photo: A Hug from FLOTUS

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Photo: A Hug from FLOTUS

First Lady Michelle Obama greets White House mentees in the Cross Hall of the White House before an event celebrating their graduation, June 12, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Sonya N. Hebert)

Google Introduces ‘Hot Searches’ in Google Trends

Google Introduces ‘Hot Searches’ in Google Trends

Posted: 12 Jun 2012 10:16 AM PDT

It’s no secret that in today’s modern age, we’ve embraced a “search” based culture. Whether it’s a new artist you’ve heard of, a recipe you’ve read about, or even a news report you’ve just seen on TV; we’ve become more inclined to search about those subjects to find out more information to such a degree that our collective thoughts can actually correspond with what people actively search. As highlighted in the graph below, people tend to aggressively search for the keyword phrase “english premier league” during the month of August corresponding with the cut off date for player transfers:

In fact, you could even make educated guesses about who’s going to win a presidential election based on searches; the graph below are for the keyword phrases “Barack Obama” (blue line) and “John McCain” (red line).

Therefore, it is safe to assume that we could gauge what’s on people’s minds by measuring what’s been searched at any given time. For this very reason, Google have just announced an update to their feature in their ‘Google Trends’ product offering called “Hot Searches” which “let you see a list of the fastest rising search terms in the US for a snapshot of what’s on the public’s collective mind”. The Hot Searches list is updated on an hourly basis with an algorithm analysing searches to determine which queries are being searched much more than usual.

The lists appear with an image, an estimate of the number of searches and a short description with links to relevant news articles to help you find out more about why these topics are “trending”:

So why wait? Check it out for yourself at Hot Searches and let us know what you think of it.

Seth's Blog : Seven marketing sins

Seven marketing sins

Impatient... great marketing takes time. Doing it wrong ten times costs much more and takes longer than doing it slowly, but right, over the same period of time.

Selfish... we have a choice, and if we sense that this is all about you, not us, our choice will be to go somewhere else.

Self-absorbed... you don't buy from you, others buy from you. They don't care about your business and your troubles nearly as much as you do.

Deceitful... see selfish, above. If you don't tell us the truth, it's probably because you're selfish. How urgent can your needs be that you would sacrifice your future to get something now?

Inconsistent... we're not paying that much attention, but when we do, it helps if you are similar to the voice we heard from last time.

Angry... at us? Why are you angry at us? It's not something we want to be part of, thanks.

Jealous... is someone doing better than you? Of course they are. There's always someone doing better than you. But if you let your jealousy change your products or your attitude or your story, we're going to leave.

Of course, they're not marketing sins, they're human failings.

Humility, empathy, generosity, patience and kindness, combined with the arrogance of the brilliant inventor, are a potent alternative.

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marți, 12 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Dead Before Arrival": Bundesbank Shoots Down EU Banking-Union Proposal; Eight Lessons the EU Needs to Learn
Fitch Managing Director Says Spain Will Miss Budget-Deficit Targets By "Substantial Margin"; Yields in Spain and Italy Soar; Spanish 10-Year Yield Hits Record High 6.83%
23% of Small Business Owners (Approximately 6.21 million) Report "No Pay for a Year"; New Zealand, Singapore, US, Best Places to Start and Run a Business

"Dead Before Arrival": Bundesbank Shoots Down EU Banking-Union Proposal; Eight Lessons the EU Needs to Learn

Posted: 12 Jun 2012 12:47 PM PDT

A group of eurozone Nannycrats has agreed to meet later this month to devise a master plan for a eurozone fiscal and banking union.

Here is a synopsis from my post on Sunday Details of the Secret "Nannyplan" Emerge; Proposed Nannygroup Uniforms

Nannyplan Details

Plans will create a "genuine fiscal union" in which individual member states would no longer be able to independently take on new borrowing.
Governments would only be able to decide how to spend money that is covered through their revenues.
Any country that needs more money than it takes in would have to report that need to the group of euro finance ministers.
Finance ministers will decide which financial levels are justified and would then issue joint euro bonds to finance these new borrowing needs.
"The exclusive group of ministers would be led by a full-time chair, who could ultimately rise to the position of European finance minister"
This "powerful group of finance ministers" would be controlled by a new European body in which representatives of national parliaments would have seats.

Nannyplan Synopsis

The proposal is to create group of nannies (similar in theory to the Fed except the decisions are primarily fiscal).
The group of nannies will be headed by a master-nanny (think someone like Bernanke or in this case Jean-Claude Trichet). The nanny-master will originally be a full-time chair. However, that person could ultimately rise to the position of "European Finance Minister (EFM)", but also known as "Grand Poobah".
The nannies will be controlled by elected politicians who will no doubt appoint a master-nanny who will do what the majority wants.

List of Nannycrats Working on the Master Nannyplan

European Union Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy
Euro group head Jean-Claude Juncker
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi

Notably missing is anyone representing Germany although the plans include eurobonds. Even if one ignores the eurobond issue, the nannyplan cannot possibly fly.

Barroso Pushes Nannyplan in Financial Times Interview

Yesterday, EU Commission President Barroso pitched his Banking Union idea in a Financial Times Interview making a preposterous claim that his plan "could be achieved without treaty changes".

All 27 EU countries should submit their big banks to a single cross-border supervisor as part of a banking union to be enacted as soon as next year, the president of the European Commission has urged.

The plan, which would also include an EU-wide deposit guarantee scheme and a rescue fund paid for by levies on financial institutions, could be achieved by next year and without changes in the bloc's existing treaties, Mr Barroso said.

He also wants to accelerate action on existing proposals for the deposit guarantee scheme and bank resolution, which are primarily handled at a national level.

George Osborne, the UK chancellor, insists Britain will not be part of any banking union that makes its taxpayers liable for recapitalising eurozone banks or puts major British banks under the watch of an EU supervisor.

Bundesbank Warns on Banking Union

UK chancellor UK George Osborne immediately shot down the idea for the UK. One day later the Bundesbank, Germany's Central Bank, did the same.

Please consider Bundesbank warns on EU banking union

Germany's Bundesbank has warned of possible risks from banking union in the EU, saying it would be tantamount to a back-door pooling of sovereign debt, unless accompanied by fiscal union that allowed control over national budgets.

Sabine Lautenschläger, vice-president of the Bundesbank, said banking union could only work in tandem with fiscal union – meaning some common cross-border binding rules on how countries could set budgets.

The "decisive question" of banking union was the "interplay between liability and control" because a crisis in one country's banks could require financial help from taxpayers in other countries, Ms Lautenschläger said. "Whoever accepts liability also has to have a right to control, especially when it is potentially a question of very large sums as in the case of a banking crisis."

"The extremely important discipline of the market would be partially lost. Even more seriously, joint liability for banks would, at least, partially extend to the sovereign bonds of these countries," she said. "The result would be joint sovereign liability through the back door – without the possibilities for intervention and control, and therefore the protection, of a fiscal union."

Ms Lautenschläger also cast doubt on how quickly any banking union could be implemented, saying "comprehensive EU treaty changes" would be needed.

"Dead Before Arrival"

Note that this is not a case of "dead-on-arrival". Rather, this is a case of the Bundesbank declaring the proposal is "dead-before-arrival" given the nannyclowns have not yet gotten together to finalize their plans.

Barroso claims the EU needs to learn the lessons of the sovereign debt crisis. On that I agree. The difference is Barroso failed to learn the proper lessons.

Eight Lessons the EU Needs to Learn

The euro helped ruin Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland.
17 nations will never agree to give up sovereignty to a group of eurocrats in Brussels.
Even France does not want to give up sovereignty. Instead, France wants more socialism, free money, and eurobonds.
Socialism and capitalism do not mix easily or well. France, Spain, and Greece are against badly needed work and pension reforms. France is taking a giant step back on work-related issues right now.
France is dead-set-against the end of crop subsidies, an untenable position in a "United States of Europe" type proposal.
Fiscal unions will not pass and would not solve all the structural problems even if they did pass. There are simply too many cultural and philosophic differences that cannot possibly be fixed in any reasonable timeframe, if ever.
The Euro is a failed concept and cannot possibly work.
The proper thing to do is dismantle the eurozone and get rid of all the nannycrats before the market further takes matters into its own hands

The Key points are 6, 7, and 8 with the market providing a big warning on number 8 right now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Fitch Managing Director Says Spain Will Miss Budget-Deficit Targets By "Substantial Margin"; Yields in Spain and Italy Soar; Spanish 10-Year Yield Hits Record High 6.83%

Posted: 12 Jun 2012 09:56 AM PDT

The selloff on Spanish and Italian bonds continued today with yields in Spain hitting euro-era record highs.

On the deficit side of matters, I do not believe Spain will meet its budget-deficit targets, and neither does Fitch.

Fitch Managing Director Ed Parker said Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will miss budget-deficit targets this year "by a substantial margin." according to a Bloomberg report.

10-Year Spanish Bond Yield Hits Record High

The previous euro-era 10-year Spanish Bond Yield high-water mark was 6.7%. That record was shattered today with a rise to 6.83%, closing at 6.7%, right at the previous high. The yield closed up 20 basis points (.2 percentage points).

Yields Climb in Italy

10-Year bonds in Italy were hammered as well, with the yield climbing as high as 6.3% before settling at 6.17%, up 14 basis points.

Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

Yesterday, on news of a Spanish bailout, stocks and bonds gapped up (yields down). The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond dropped as low as 6.01%, but the selling began immediately.

I commented that the sell-the-news reaction represented An "Emperor Has No Clothes" Moment: ESM Has Failed Already.

The jump from 6.01% coupled with significant follow-through today offers substantial evidence that time has expired for Europe to address the crisis.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

23% of Small Business Owners (Approximately 6.21 million) Report "No Pay for a Year"; New Zealand, Singapore, US, Best Places to Start and Run a Business

Posted: 12 Jun 2012 12:59 AM PDT

Citing a new survey by Citigroup, CNBC Reports All Work, No Pay for Some Small Business Owners.

Here are some interesting highlights.

Over the past few years, business owners report that they have, at one time or another, taken less profit (78 percent), worked more hours than usual (70 percent), and used their own money to help the business survive (69 percent).
54 percent of respondents say they have gone without a paycheck in order to keep the business running.
23 percent of owners have gone without pay for one year or more.
More than one-third of owners (38 percent) said their employees worked overtime without pay
18 percent of owners said employees either missed paychecks or had paychecks delayed.
Access to financing doesn't come up in the top five most important issues among small businesses. Instead, business owners cite lack of sales and consumer confidence.

I would like to show a link to the Citigroup report but I cannot because CNBC did not provide one. Readers know this is one of my pet peeves, so I am calling them on it.

Recession Brought Small-Business Boom

Inquiring minds just may be wondering how many small businesses there are. A report written May 20, 2011 may surprise you.

Please consider Recession Brought a Small-Business Boom

"Compared to 2007, there was a huge increase in the number of business failures in 2008, 2009, and 2010. In fact, the number of business failures in 2009 was almost twice that of the amount of failures in 2007," writes Byron Vielehr, president of global risk and analytics at D&B, in response to questions emailed by Portfolio.com.

"2009 and 2010 bore witness to the highest percentage of startups in more than a decade. The rate of new businesses had also been steadily climbing since 2006. As a result, the number of businesses in 2010 compared to 2007 is higher."

As of 2010, D&B estimates, there were about 23 million small businesses in the United States, employing nearly 81 million workers.

27 Million Small Businesses

Citing the Small Business Association (SBA) Get Busy Media reports 27 million small businesses in Small Business Stats for Small Business Week 2011

According to the SBA

There are 27+ Million Small Businesses in the US.

Between 60% & 80% of all new jobs created in our country can be attributed to Small Business.

Startup Times and Costs

There are some interesting charts and graphs in the article. Here is a clip showing several pertinent pieces of information.

Singapore and New Zealand are the best two places to start a business and run a business. The US is 4th and 3rd respectively.

It would be interesting to see where Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, and Germany fall, but there are no links to the data or studies.

Ease of Startup Explains Recession Boom

Notice the success stats on the above graph do not add up. If 44% of new firms survive 4 years, by implication 56% don't. Yet somehow only 49% fail in 5 years.

Regardless, the above chart explains the startup boom at the height of the recession. Millions of people started businesses and most of them will not make it.

Stats from 2007 and 2008 as to how many businesses will last 5 years are invalid. Business climate is far more unfavorable now.

Crunching the Numbers

If there are 27 million small business owners and 23% have not received any pay for a year, there are 6.21 million business owners who received no paycheck for at least a year.

Notes About Unemployment

Bear in mind, that making money or receiving a paycheck is irrelevant to the BLS when they compute the unemployment rate. If you work as little as 1 hour, whether you collect a paycheck or not, you are considered employed.

In addition to the 6.21 million business owners with no paycheck, factor in those selling trinkets on EBay out of desperation and collecting a few dimes in the process.

Also factor in all those starting multi-level marketing schemes and calling it a business. How many get sucked into that losing proposition every year? Yet, to the BLS, it's a job if you worked any hours.

The ease of starting a business in the US is a great thing. Unfortunately, making money in a small business startup is not so easy.

Historic trends suggest half of small businesses will fail within 5 years, and I highly suspect future trends will be much worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

miercuri, 13 iunie 2012

Photo: A Hug from FLOTUS

Google Introduces ‘Hot Searches’ in Google Trends

Google Introduces ‘Hot Searches’ in Google Trends

Seth's Blog : Seven marketing sins

Seven marketing sins

More Recent Articles

marți, 12 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

miercuri, 13 iunie 2012

Photo: A Hug from FLOTUS

Google Introduces ‘Hot Searches’ in Google Trends

Google Introduces ‘Hot Searches’ in Google Trends

Seth's Blog : Seven marketing sins

Seven marketing sins

More Recent Articles

marți, 12 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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